Matt N
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Mako (SeaWorld Orlando)
Hi guys. I know we have a coronavirus thread in Corner Coffee already, but that's quite a general one. So I thought I'd make this one to talk about a more specific matter to do with the crisis; how will it affect the theme park industry?
Now, I personally think that it's too early to tell the exact impact this will have on the industry, but my current estimate is that there will definitely be an impact in the short to medium term (2020 will not be a good year financially, and 2021 might still be lagging behind 2019 levels), but I think it should have bounced back somewhat in the long term. I could see attendance returning to 2019 levels by 2022-2023, or by 2025 in a worst case scenario. The economy is currently predicted to have returned to growth by 2021 by most economists, so even though I know that the impacts of the recession will likely linger in society for longer than that, I'd say that a return to previous economic levels by 2025 at the latest seems like a realistic estimate. I also predict that dependant on when lockdowns are lifted and parks can reopen, Q3 and Q4 could potentially be very strong, and offset some of the losses made in Q1 & Q2. People will want to blow off some steam and visit outdoor places after months of being locked up inside, so I'm sure theme parks will see some sort of benefit from this.
As for what all this means for the industry; I think that compared to the 2010s, which were a plentiful decade in terms of major new things being built, the 2020s will be a lighter decade in terms of investment, maybe more comparable to the 2000s following the knock-on effects of 9/11. I think that there are quite a few parks out there that have the financial integrity to ride out this storm, and I think that parks will still invest if they have the financial integrity to do so.
However, I do predict that quite a few parks will also be hit hard by this crisis. The places I'm personally worried for are places that were struggling before coronavirus happened. Examples that come to mind include Drayton Manor, M&D's (there are already signs that they're struggling to take the virus-related hit now) and Blackpool Pleasure Beach amongst others. I think that some of the UK's smaller independent parks could close, and the crisis could potentially lead Six Flags into its second bankruptcy.
On the whole, then; I think that the industry will be impacted in the short to medium term, with some closures resulting from this, but in the long term, it should have bounced back. This industry and various parks around the world have survived worse crises than this one; look at how many parks date back to the 1800s or early 1900s. They've survived both world wars and the Great Depression! We should also take into account the government's financial support packages for businesses; nothing like this existed during the crises I just mentioned.
But how do you think the coronavirus crisis will impact the theme park industry?
Now, I personally think that it's too early to tell the exact impact this will have on the industry, but my current estimate is that there will definitely be an impact in the short to medium term (2020 will not be a good year financially, and 2021 might still be lagging behind 2019 levels), but I think it should have bounced back somewhat in the long term. I could see attendance returning to 2019 levels by 2022-2023, or by 2025 in a worst case scenario. The economy is currently predicted to have returned to growth by 2021 by most economists, so even though I know that the impacts of the recession will likely linger in society for longer than that, I'd say that a return to previous economic levels by 2025 at the latest seems like a realistic estimate. I also predict that dependant on when lockdowns are lifted and parks can reopen, Q3 and Q4 could potentially be very strong, and offset some of the losses made in Q1 & Q2. People will want to blow off some steam and visit outdoor places after months of being locked up inside, so I'm sure theme parks will see some sort of benefit from this.
As for what all this means for the industry; I think that compared to the 2010s, which were a plentiful decade in terms of major new things being built, the 2020s will be a lighter decade in terms of investment, maybe more comparable to the 2000s following the knock-on effects of 9/11. I think that there are quite a few parks out there that have the financial integrity to ride out this storm, and I think that parks will still invest if they have the financial integrity to do so.
However, I do predict that quite a few parks will also be hit hard by this crisis. The places I'm personally worried for are places that were struggling before coronavirus happened. Examples that come to mind include Drayton Manor, M&D's (there are already signs that they're struggling to take the virus-related hit now) and Blackpool Pleasure Beach amongst others. I think that some of the UK's smaller independent parks could close, and the crisis could potentially lead Six Flags into its second bankruptcy.
On the whole, then; I think that the industry will be impacted in the short to medium term, with some closures resulting from this, but in the long term, it should have bounced back. This industry and various parks around the world have survived worse crises than this one; look at how many parks date back to the 1800s or early 1900s. They've survived both world wars and the Great Depression! We should also take into account the government's financial support packages for businesses; nothing like this existed during the crises I just mentioned.
But how do you think the coronavirus crisis will impact the theme park industry?
