2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[GaryH]

Similar to the UK when you think about it. We have Trump only winning because people have no one else to vote for, and similarly in the UK, we have Starmer, possibly the most unpopular next PM to be voted in history only winning because he is up against Sunak. Reading the below makes quite glum reading, where the majority of the public have low expectations, don't think things will improve, and don't think he will be a good PM.

Labour and Starmer aren’t popular – but the Tories are even less so | YouGov

The public say it’s time for change, and prefer Labour to the Conservatives, but expectations of the party are low

yougov.co.uk

I find it truly incredible that out of the millions of people who live in these countries, these are our choices! I'm not trying to bash Starmer here but point out that, well for me in all the years voting, this is the first time I have felt so flat about a GE, where the incoming party has promised very little, where I feel that we could just be getting more of the same, but with a different person at the helm of the Titanic and with it being painted red instead of blue. When Blair was incoming there was a genuine feeling of hope and direction in the UK. I really cant say I am hopeful for the future under a Labour government but happy to be proved wrong.

 

[Matt.GC]

I have to absolutely disagree with Trump's popularity having anything to do with Biden being a dodgery old man. That's just the icing on the cake, not the sponge and jam underneath.

Trump lied his way through the last presidential election, lied his way through his presidency, denied democracy which led to appalling scenes with the storming of the Capitol, and pretty much everyone knows it. Republicans know it, most voters know it, even supporters of his in foreign countries like Farage know it.

The Biden predicament is a potential reason to not vote Demorcrat or just stay at home for many. But it doesn't answer the question as to why someone like Trump should be in touching distance for that to be a tipping point factor in the first place. Trump's support base is huge. It's not made up just the core. Yes a lot of party cleansing has taken place, but most of the GOP now has his back and this is quite remarkable. They tolerate him, as do millions of voters, in the knowledge (and sometimes openly acknowledging) that they know he is lying, and that his presidency did not deliver the populist promises he made.

This runs much deeper than voters choosing a 78 year old over an 81 year old because they think the latter is too old. There is an acknowledgement that Trump is absolutely insane from people who vote for him! What message are the people trying to send about their lives and their country that they're willing to hold their noses and vote Trump?

Biden should go for the sake of the party I feel, but the Democrats can't just install someone younger just to get them over the line and then completely ignore the contributing factors that have caused Trump to be such a phenomenon in the first place. That strategy isn't working too well for Macron at the minute either is it? Starmer should heed this warning over the next 5 years. If he doesn't utilise his large majority to do something radical to shake things up, you can bet that emboldened Populists will be back in 2029.

 

[GaryH]

I don't think Trump would be as popular as he is if there was a credible alternative to Biden. I honestly think its the same situation as here in the UK. We don't want to vote for the other guy so we have to vote for Trump. While there are many who do like Trump, there are equally as many who don't, but at the same time don't trust a dithering old man who can barely walk to defend the country if there was a war so you go with what you have like it or not.

Pity Obama doesn't step back in - really liked him as a president.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Pity Obama doesn't step back in - really liked him as a president.

He can't. US Presidents have been limited to serving a maximum of 2 x 4 year terms (8 years total) since 1952 under the 22nd amendment of the constitution.

but at the same time don't trust a dithering old man who can barely walk to defend the country if there was a war

Good job that they also elect a backup Vice President then, to take over if the head honcho isn't capable or is incapacitated. They also have the option of voting for an independent candidate for President. Unlike the British system, the makeup of Congress and the Senate has nothing to do with the election of the Leader. You could end up with a Democrat Congress, a Republican Senate and an Independent President, or any variation thereof.

But this is all getting very off topic.

In other news, Reform UK candidate has discovered, shockingly, that her party may be full of some not very nice people. Including, but not limited to, racists! It had never occured to her before. She's defecting to the Conservative party.

General election latest: Second Reform candidate defects to Tories as Sunak defends campaign

Pressed on the Conseratives' chances, Sunak claims "people are waking up to the dangers of what a Labour government would mean for them".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Matt.GC]

I don't think Trump would be as popular as he is if there was a credible alternative to Biden. I honestly think its the same situation as here in the UK. We don't want to vote for the other guy so we have to vote for Trump. While there are many who do like Trump, there are equally as many who don't, but at the same time don't trust a dithering old man who can barely walk to defend the country if there was a war so you go with what you have like it or not.

Trump would absolutely be almost as popular if there was a credible alternative to Biden at this stage. The amount of votes a strong and fresh faced Biden replacement would bring across from the Republicans to the Democrats could be enough to swing the election in their favour, but doesn't deal with the main issue of why Trump is such a formidable opponent in the first place.

If you really hate Trump and everything he stands for, you're not then going to switch to him because Biden is an old codger. The Democrats need to really think hard about how Trump became so successful in the first place and deal with those issues. The Republicans themselves didn't understand this, and the ones that didn't get cleansed out just tolerated him and fell behind him anyway for the win. They lost the 'debate' and lost their party to a populist movement. Both parties need to understand what the electorate is trying to tell them, and neither are doing that.

Maybe Biden and his age is a symptom, but it's not the cause of the disease. Although the US election is an extreme case, these factors are present right through western democracies. Things aren't working as people feel they should and are crying out for the establishment to change and do something about it. Something is broken and that's exactly why Starmer can't walk into Downing Street on Friday morning thinking to himself "thank god that's all over" like Blair did and just tinker around the edges thinking that it's all gone away because it hasn't.

In other news, Reform UK candidate has discovered, shockingly, that her party may be full of some not very nice people. Including, but not limited to, racists! It had never occured to her before. She's defecting to the Conservative party.

General election latest: Second Reform candidate defects to Tories as Sunak defends campaign

Pressed on the Conseratives' chances, Sunak claims "people are waking up to the dangers of what a Labour government would mean for them".

www.bbc.co.uk

I'm not normally one for agreeing with Reform conspiracy theories, and I thought the "he's an actor" one was particularly rediclous. But I have to agree with Richard Tice here, the similarities in the press releases indicate that the Tories are behind this.

I'm not begrudging that of course. The culture inside Reform should be of no surprise to anyone. I bet if a canvasser from Reform knocked on my door right now and I engaged with them, it wouldn't take long for the racism and homophobia to manifest. As Farage says, that's just how normal people talk down the pub after they've "had a few" isn't it? That's his excuse anyway.

I don't think this will have a meaningful effect on the election though. I'm still sticking broadly by my prediction as I've always priced in this kind of thing as a campaign inevitably anyway. Reforms polling has been overstated for weeks now. Won't stop them winning a small handful of seats though.

 

[Benzin]

The current Tory attack lines seem to be:

Kier likes to spend Fridays being with his family.

And this gem:


From: https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1808022203809911171

 

[Matt N]

The Tories (well, Rishi Sunak) have posted this rather apocalyptic campaign video on Facebook:

URL if the embed doesn’t work:
From: https://www.facebook.com/rishisunak/videos/783336723990074/

It seems like the Tory campaign has taken a rather dramatic and apocalyptic turn in recent days, what with all this talk of a “Labour supermajority” and a “one-party communist state”. That video from Sunak implies that Labour coming in will bring in some sort of apocalypse.

I’m also getting a lot of recommended news articles from The Telegraph, which have a similar tone to Sunak’s campaign. They’re writing headlines like “After Starmer’s 5 years of terror are over, there will be nothing left to conserve” and “Keir Starmer is coming after everything we hold dear”…

The vast majority of me thinks this is scaremongering and that I’m excited to see change and a Labour government (I’ve long supported Labour, and am excited to hopefully finally be on the winning side of an election campaign), but there is a very small part of me that wonders; am I doing the right thing by voting Labour? Are Sunak and The Telegraph right, and will a Labour government be something to fear?

 

[Benzin]

Are Sunak and The Telegraph right, and will a Labour government be something to fear?

No.

This marketing has done the job by putting some doubt into you. But consider this, who's been in charge of the country for the past 14 years? Who's been openly lying and taking the population for fools? Who's had a leader who nearly killed the economy in a week?


Also to note, the way the parliament vote works, a "super majority" would garner the same vote result (assuming all MPs toe the party line) as a majority of 1.



Edit - Watched the video. So be afraid of high fuel costs (lol), high bills (lol) and schools being online because they're busy (?). So basically all the stuff that's happened the last few years under a *checks notes* Tory government!

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

And this gem:


From: https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1808022203809911171

Urgh, thanks for sharing. I'm going to break this one down, because it's made me a rather snappy and angry goose today.

We are currently in breach of Article 3, and Protocol Number 1, of the European Convention on Human Rights, by not allowing prisoners to vote.

Presently the following people, in custody, are allowed to vote; but in practice few of them are aware and some custodial settings actively discourage it:

• those held on remand awaiting trial/ sentencing
• civil prisoners– normally those in prison for failure to pay fines or debts or contempt
• offenders on home detention curfew or released on temporary licence.

As of 28th June 2024, the current prison population is 87,360, with a further 2,194 people on Home Detention Curfew (tag).

Prisoners are people who's lives are directly affected by politicians, but unlike most other marginalised groups, their lives are often politicised and used as a football by parties. I don't think extending the franchise to them is particularly worrying, or controversial. I do think that they should be able to have a say on a representative for their area. They're allowed to write to MPs and petition them, so why shouldn't they be able to have a say on whom they're going to be writing to?

People in custody may have committed some distasteful, even heinous, crimes. The punishment is separating them so that they can be rehabilitated and lead successful lives in society; they ought to have a say in how that society looks.

I also don't think that extending the franchise to immigrants should be particularly contentious either. If someone is living over here, for a significant period of time, contributing to the economy, playing a part in society, and paying taxes, why shouldn't they have a say in the way that their neighbourhood (or home) is run?

Here's a breakdown of who can vote in various elections, and, oh, would you look at that? Immigrants and prisoners can already vote in some elections and the world hasn't imploded in on itself.

Incidentally, if you no longer live in this country (you're an expat), you can STILL vote in UK General Elections. The amount of mental gymnastics you have to perform to think that's reasonable, but people who have elected to live here and call this place home isn't, are beyond my comprehension. Unless you're xenophobic, but then you're possibly just not a very nice person.

 

[Mick]

Ah yes @GooseOnTheLoose, but remember the ECHR is inherently bad and stopping us governing our own country sensibly and moderately…

Roll on Thursday.

 

[shakey]

Roll on Thursday.

You do know that life will be exactly the same after the election ?

The only difference will be some new faces in parliament and a new bingo reference. Starmers Den.

But it's time the other lot had a go . I just wouldn't get your hopes up that your life is going to change in anyway whatsoever.




Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Mick]

You do know that life will be exactly the same after the election ?

The only difference will be some new faces in parliament and a new bingo reference. Starmers Den.

But it's time the other lot had a go . I just wouldn't get your hopes up that your life is going to change in anyway whatsoever.




Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Oh I fundamentally agree with you, old enough and wise enough to know there’s no magic wand, money tree or clicking of fingers that will suddenly magically teleport us into some form of utopia. And that whatever’s left of the Conservative Party, as well as Reform will still be pedalling divisive nonsense and that the stuff that’s dominating the newspapers, social media and the like will continue to do so.

But I’ll still be glad to formally evict this broken Conservative Party and see the end of their absolutely terrible election campaign.

 

[Relife]

Whats's happening in France will happen in the UK in the next 5 -10 years and it should serve as a warning. The reason the far right is on the rise is because traditional parties haven't got a grip on immigration. People then look at the far right and decide to give them a go as the traditional parties have failed.

 

[Ryan]

The Tories (well, Rishi Sunak) have posted this rather apocalyptic campaign video on Facebook:

URL if the embed doesn’t work:
From: https://www.facebook.com/rishisunak/videos/783336723990074/

It seems like the Tory campaign has taken a rather dramatic and apocalyptic turn in recent days, what with all this talk of a “Labour supermajority” and a “one-party communist state”. That video from Sunak implies that Labour coming in will bring in some sort of apocalypse.

I’m also getting a lot of recommended news articles from The Telegraph, which have a similar tone to Sunak’s campaign. They’re writing headlines like “After Starmer’s 5 years of terror are over, there will be nothing left to conserve” and “Keir Starmer is coming after everything we hold dear”…

The vast majority of me thinks this is scaremongering and that I’m excited to see change and a Labour government (I’ve long supported Labour, and am excited to hopefully finally be on the winning side of an election campaign), but there is a very small part of me that wonders; am I doing the right thing by voting Labour? Are Sunak and The Telegraph right, and will a Labour government be something to fear?

I love that the end of that video, it's climax, it's apocalyptic crescendo...was a man deciding to walk to work instead of drive.

It's secondary point was the terror of increases in tax - supposedly to fund more public services to get our country back to being a positive, prosperous first world nation again.

And Russia cutting off energy supplies - wait, it was Labour who made us near dependant on just-in-time energy imports? Hmmm!

 

[Benzin]

Whats's happening in France will happen in the UK in the next 5 -10 years and it should serve as a warning. The reason the far right is on the rise is because traditional parties haven't got a grip on immigration. People then look at the far right and decide to give them a go as the traditional parties have failed.

Don't think it's solely immigration based (though it often used as an introduction to far right politics), the current culture war of people reminiscing of the "good old days where you could be openly racist and women were women" is pushing some generations in that direction.

Often the irony is that these places that vote staunchly for anti-immigration policies are immensely white (in this country). But they've had the fear put into them through rhetoric bollocks that those infamous Muslim "no go areas" will be there soon. The French are just as bad for this, and it is causing some concern (could it also be that the country is reaping what they sowed with their ownership of various countries?)

Then you get the nutters protesting nonsense stuff like 15 minute cities. I see them on occasion on way home and they fit the conspiracy theory nut stereotype perfectly. Often also see at right wing rallies and desperate to be in the cult of personality (much like Disney adults, they strive to make up for a distinct lack of personality and what they perceive as a failed life, then wonder why Sandra took the kids away 5 years ago).

The main issue I see these days is that people in positions of some power are often allowed to spout any old tosh with zero evidence to back it up. By which point the message is already done and out there. Farage certainly won't be doing much actual MP job stuff should he be elected; but the turkeys often vote for Christmas, as seen by those who voted in Galloway.

 

[GaryH]

I

I love that the end of that video, it's climax, it's apocalyptic crescendo...was a man deciding to walk to work instead of drive.

I got the impression from the end of that video he was off to top himself

 

[Matt N]

On a different note, I found a rather interesting poll that appears to be completely at odds with the rest of the election polling I’ve seen, from UKPollingReport. Take a look at this: https://pollingreport.uk/polls

Their latest prediction is as follows:

• Labour: 372 (41%)
• Conservatives: 194 (21%)
• Liberal Democrats: 37 (11.3%)
• Scottish National Party: 24 (2.6%)
• Reform UK: 2 (16.2%)
• Green Party: 1 (5.2%)
• Other: 20 (2.8%)

To me, something similar to this seems a little bit more likely than all of the polls predicting a complete Conservative wipeout, a Liberal Democrat opposition and a Labour majority of epic proportions, but I could be wrong.

Believe me, I would love to be wrong, as I think a huge Labour landslide could be quite exciting to watch unfold! But I’m not sure I see a Blair-beating Labour landslide and a total Conservative wipeout with them potentially not even being the opposition.

 

[Squiggs]

Reading through this thread, it makes me appreciate my online data protection regime even more than normal.

I don't think I've seen a single political ad during this whole campaign.

 

[GaryH]

Reading through this thread, it makes me appreciate my online data protection regime even more than normal.

I don't think I've seen a single political ad during this whole campaign.

How about sites outside this one though?

 

[Matt N]

Is anyone else getting absolutely pummelled with election literature through the postbox at the moment?

We’re getting absolutely pummelled by Labour literature in particular; for the last 3 days, we’ve received a different Labour campaign leaflet each day! Today, it was a generic leaflet along the lines of “Change is here. But only if you vote for it”. Yesterday, we each got a personalised postcard saying “[Insert name here], do you think the NHS has improved in the last 14 years?” before reiterating Labour’s NHS improvement plans. On Monday, we got both a personalised letter from the local candidate himself explaining his history and Labour’s pledges and a postcard from Keir Starmer reiterating Labour’s pledges.

The Labour Party really wants us to vote for them, it seems!

We’ve also received quite a lot from the local Green candidate as of late too. They’re promoting themselves as “the tactical vote” here in the Forest of Dean, citing their recent local election victories, and the leaflet heavily criticised Labour as well as the Conservatives… the Greens and Labour are fighting an aggressive left-on-left battle here in the Forest of Dean, it seems! We got another leaflet from them this morning.

We’ve had two identical leaflets from Reform UK over the course of the campaign. Unlike the other parties, Reform’s candidate has been largely hidden on a personal level, with the Reform leaflets simply having a picture of Nigel Farage and Richard Tice, Reform’s key pledges, and the local candidate’s name…

Interestingly, the incumbent Tory MP Mark Harper has been largely silent apart from one leaflet through the door defending his record in the area since 2005, and the Lib Dems have also been largely silent aside from one solitary leaflet.

As much as I’m finding the campaign fascinating, one thing I won’t miss is the constant daily barrage of election literature through the postbox… as my parents are largely uninterested in it, it mostly does little aside from fill up our paper & cardboard recycling bag!