Is the theme park industry dying?

[Matt N]

Hi guys. This week, we had some rather sad news in the form of Oakwood Theme Park in Wales announcing its closure after nearly 40 years of operation. While Oakwood's closure was in itself not particularly surprising news (I would argue, anyway), it comes amid a backdrop of increasingly tumultuous news from around the industry. Flambard's in Cornwall closed its doors last year, parks such as Wicksteed Park and Adventure Island are raising the alarm about recent changes, and even the Merlin parks are making wide-ranging cutbacks and layoffs. Abroad, we've seen some interesting developments across the pond in the form of a spate of ruthless major ride removals within the newly merged Six Flags/Cedar Fair chain, most notably including Kingda Ka. At the moment, it feels as though many parks are tightening their belts and cutting back, or closing entirely. With this in mind, I'd be interested to know; do you feel that the theme park industry is dying? What do you feel the future holds for the industry in these tumultuous times?

Personally, I don't feel that the theme park industry is dying, at least not on a worldwide basis. I would point to the continued prosperity of the big operators Disney and Universal, for starters; both continue to prosper and have big plans in the pipeline. In mainland Europe, we also have many prospering parks; parks such as Europa Park, Efteling, Phantasialand, PortAventura, Parque Warner and many others, even including Merlin's European properties such as Gardaland, appear to be doing well, with continuing investment. It is also worth me noting that despite the wide-ranging major ride removals at Six Flags parks in the USA, the company has also announced absolutely masses of CAPEX into its parks for 2026 and onwards; there was a large spate of new additions recently announced across the estate. If the company was in trouble, I don't think they'd be investing masses into new things, which leads me to believe that the removals across the chain may simply be part of a rather aggressive restructure rather than signs of a company in trouble.

In the UK more specifically, I think the picture is perhaps less positive. The UK industry has arguably struggled for a good 15 years or so now; even prior to COVID and the more recent socioeconomic turbulence, a number of parks in the UK could arguably have been described as "clinging on" and "surviving rather than thriving", with many non-Merlin parks seeming to lack ambition and momentum during the 2010s. Even the Merlin parks have had their own difficulties; the Smiler crash and ensuing aftermath resulted in a bleak couple of years for Alton in particular, the effects of which can arguably still be felt. I feel that the recent economic turbulence could have pushed many parks from a state of "clinging on" into trouble, and I do feel that other parks may unfortunately follow Flambard's and Oakwood in the years to come. With all of this being said, I think there are still some green shoots of optimism within the UK industry. Paultons Park continues to be a beacon of positive growth and development, and in recent years, Drayton Manor has arguably joined it. Despite the OPEX cuts, heavy CAPEX is also continuing at the Merlin parks, and another thing I would say is that Universal and Puy du Fou are both currently expressing interest in building theme parks in Britain at present. Whether these projects happen or not is another matter entirely, but the mere fact that two major operators are expressing serious interest in building major parks the UK at once is a sign that there's some life left in the UK theme park industry, is it not?

But I'd be keen to know; with recent tumultuous developments, do you feel the theme park industry is dying?

 

[flyingguitar]

It is interesting, I think there are a few factors to this:

1. We aren't seeing the other countries full theme park industries, not many other countries will know that oakwood has closed, nor will they know about flambards, it is easy to say gardaland is doing well, but you could equally argue Alton & Thorpe are doing quite well as well with good capex, we don't know how well smaller parks are doing.

2. rides are getting very expensive. for smaller parks rides, and ride parts are getting quite expensive because they are more complex, consider 30 years ago, a ride such as a gyroscope ride may not have even had a control system, rollercoasters ran on relays and all of that. but now all of it is PLC, with a lot more highly custom builds for coasters driving up prices. small parks run by having a lot of rides, but now they are complex, more expensive, and probably harder to maintain (due to added electrical components)

3. This is tied to point 2, but people are expecting a lot more from a park, they may not be expecting a perfectly themed experience, but they want it to look nice, and be a nice place to be requiring more budgets go into building and maintaining theming or people leaving as they don't like the look of things.

4. disney, thorpe, alton, etc are quite easy to travel to now and information about how good a park is travels fast. most people own a car now, and can easily use a satnav to travel to alton, thorpe or catch a flight to disney, eftling, etc. with social media info about how good a park is and how thrilling it is can travel fast and mean if people are 50/50 about going to oakwood or thorpe, they may go to thorpe as it has more rides for about the same price.

5. you can't sit still, tied with 2 and 3, you can't stop investing if some downtime in the economy as you can easily be left behind in a death spiral, where you don't invest so make less money, so can't invest, so make less money and repeat

there are a couple more points, but I think mainly it has become more expensive to build and maintain a park, meaning the larger parks are the ones able to invest and continue attracting more people.

 

[rob666]

No.
It goes in cycles, like fashion.
Simple as that.
94 being the last peak really.

 

[Bowser]

More of a tangent point but the closures aren’t technically theme parks imo, they’re amusement parks, fairgrounds, whatever you want to call them.

In terms of proper theme parks in the UK, Merlin continue to dominate but Paultons are seemingly thriving too. Drayton appear to be investing more in theming and of course we potentially have Universal on the horizon.

So I’d argue proper theme parks are fine but agree the alternative parks are clearly struggling.

 

[Zeock]

I don't think so, since theme parks such as those from Disney and Universal are still incredibly popular.
I believe the parks that have closed recently suffered from a lack of investment (very little seems to have been added to Oakwood in the past 10 years), and I agree with the original post regarding Drayton Manor and Paultons.

 

[Jb85]

No.
It goes in cycles, like fashion.
Simple as that.
94 being the last peak really.

I was going to write something as short and blunt as this.

My view - it’s two fold.

Financially - it’s bloody expensive people haven’t the spare money and only go once or twice a year to parks instead of four or five times.

Society - People have less imagination than they did. Meaning parks don’t have the same fantasy appeal they used to. It’s all copy and paste format now.

Merlin - see my last sentence above. Their monopoly on this country has made parks almost boring. Why bother!

 

[owenstreet7]

Stagnant not dying I'd say.

• Merlin seem to be running as classic Merlin does.
• Six Flags are doing loads of cuts and ride removals.
• Less new rides and attractions at a lot of parks and less regularly.

In some parks like Universal, they are being innovative with their theming etc.

There are smaller parks closing like with Oakwood but this has happened over the years.

I'd say there will be a boom again but that will be either soon or in the coming years in anticipation for Universal in the UK. In other countries, they have their ups and downs at different times depending on different factors.

 

[GJMarshy]

Maybe a lot of this has less to do with the theme parks themselves, but more the publics ability to afford to visit them? Both in a financial and logistical sense.

Make no mistake we’re in a deep cost of living crisis, with “social hangover” effects from the pandemic, and a sense of collective anxiety about the future.

If you’re a family with 2 kids say, you can bet a huge sum of your income is now going on childcare since both parents need to be working in order to afford to pay mortgages, rent, bills, food etc. Essentially it’s all going on the essentials.

Maybe in the past where a family may have visited a theme park multiple times a year, now it’s just once, or even not at all, maybe in favour of a short budget holiday abroad.
It’s a case of experience rationing almost.

In terms of cars, again it’s a huge expense for many families now. (The main demographic of theme park goers) Insurance, fuel, tax, upkeep. It’s just extortionate. Where in the past a family may have had 2 cars they now have 1. If one parent manages to get the day off work to spend time with the kids, there’s no car to drive anywhere. You’re fully reliant on either staying local or using public transport. (Which in itself is expensive and unreliable, with ticket prices now way above inflation)

Maybe families are using those days to do more simple things—going to the local park, seeing friends, doing arts and crafts.

There’s all sorts of possible reasons, but I don’t think it’s fair to blame the theme parks so much as the economy they exist within.

Right now we’re in an un-named prolonged economic and social crisis. As others have said it’s circular. So in theory once this one is resolved, things should look up!

Question is will it be solved (or even recognised as a multi disciplinary, systemic issue) before we lose such amazing attractions to falling visitor numbers?

Time will tell, but for all our sakes I hope this government (and the next) alongside other western nations contributing to this mess get their collective shite together!

 

[Matt.GC]

Loads of nuances, so the simple answer is no.

If Comcast have even considered opening a park here, and being so open about wishing to do so, then that indicates that there is a market to be tapped into. The amount of visitors every year who seek these experiences abroad rather than put up with the woeful offering here certainly lean in that direction.

As to why we have such a woeful offering here, that is again nuanced. Loads of factors such as corporate strategy, market conditions, tax structures, cost of living, legalities, even the weather.

Despite how crappy the UK economy has performed for what now feels like forever, I don't think it's as simple as that. Disney and Comcast are throwing the cash around whilst Trump and chums are busy flushing the US economy down the toilet.

I believe there are genuine reasons for not investing in the rotting UK. Yet here we are, with an international entertainment conglomerate threatening to invest billions whilst Oakwood goes to the wall and Merlin plead poverty.

It's market forces and market conditions. Even though I think it's an up and coming wonderful place (and a better day out than the crap Chessington has on offer), Paultons isn't the big beast challenger it's often made out to be. Yet it's still interesting that a small player has decided to invest and improve its proposition, or indeed even the recent stuff going on at Drayton. Business decisions, like Universal UK, that must have been made for a reason.

Despite all the UK drawbacks, there is a market here. It's just that many of the current operators are unwilling or unable to change their entrenched strategies to tap into it. I liked Oakwood, but I still haven't been compelled to return that often. I love Towers to bits, but the place is now a has-been dump. There's a certain spark about Blackpool but I can't be bothered to go that often. Some of them feel like the Blockbuster video outlets of the 2000's, trying to pretend the good times will return and Netflix and this streaming thing will go away as long they manage to close earlier and turn the knackered old Ben and Jerry's freezer on and off again at the wall socket to kick the compressor back in every once and a while to weather the storm.

I appreciate it's not as simple as that in the real world for most of us, but there's still a lot of money out there in certain people's pockets, it's just that many of the current market operators, through flawed business strategies, are unable to extract it, tied to the tired habits of yesteryear. Death by a thousand cuts, cheap subscription passes, pursuing the same old tactics whilst keeping their fingers crossed that the good old days will return. Seems like a mostly zombie industry to me, stuck in a time warp whilst the rest of the world moves on.

 

[jon81uk]

Financially - it’s bloody expensive people haven’t the spare money and only go once or twice a year to parks instead of four or five times.

I don't think they are expensive really nowadays, the parks always have been a little expensive. Back in 1991-1995 my family did an annual trip to Drayton Manor with my mum not getting a ride wristband to keep the cost down. One year we did go to Alton Towers by saving vouchers at Safeway supermarket.
Many people only go to a theme park once a year, or they will do one major park and then a smaller park as part of a holiday week.
Most weekends this year are £37 for Alton Towers, the equivalent of £17 in 1994. That feels about right.

One issue is that people are not taking UK holidays as much, because flights to Spain are cheaper. So Oakwood, Flambards etc aren't getting as many visitors because fewer people are going to South Wales or Cornwall in the summer.
So many people might do their annual trip to Alton Towers and then a cheap break to Spain. Whereas 30 years ago we did an annual Drayton Manor trip and a holiday to South Wales and a visit to Oakwood, or the Isle of Wight and Blackgang Chine or Cornwall and Flambards.
Things like Eden Project also take many of the Cornwall days out.
Go Ape and similar are also competing for the £35 spend on a day out instead of a theme park.

 

[Bowser]

I don't think they are expensive really nowadays, the parks always have been a little expensive

If anything they’re cheaper than ever due to MAP. As long as you can afford the initial outlay (though I believe they do monthly payment plans) really you’ve got a year of excursions with only travel costs. If you live in the south in particular that’s often a travel card with children going free.

 

[jon81uk]

If anything they’re cheaper than ever due to MAP. As long as you can afford the initial outlay (though I believe they do monthly payment plans) really you’ve got a year of excursions with only travel costs. If you live in the south in particular that’s often a travel card with children going free.

Yep, Although I can recall paying around £100 for a Tussauds pass in 2002 and using the inflation calculator a Merlin pass would be the equilivant of £98-137 (silver to gold) back then, so given the additional attractions you now get following the merger, the Merlin pass has kept with inflation too.

Annual Pass has always been a great deal if you can visit 5+ places in a year.

 

[John_P]

Theme parks aren't just competing with each other but the whole entertainment sector.

Look at how many trampoline/soft play/ninja warrior things have sprung up in the past decade. Absolute hot spots for taking kids for a treat or having birthday party at. Much more affordable, and also easier to get to.

 

[owenstreet7]

Theme parks aren't just competing with each other but the whole entertainment sector.

Look at how many trampoline/soft play/ninja warrior things have sprung up in the past decade. Absolute hot spots for taking kids for a treat or having birthday party at. Much more affordable, and also easier to get to.

I believe these are very different things. The trampoline parks/ninja warrior courses would compete more with bowling alleys in terms of price which are more regular whilst the theme parks are considered more premium and once a year trips for most people.

Passholders are slightly different and the majority would be enthusiasts or people who really enjoy rides.