UK Politics General Discussion

[Benzin]

Can't we just get some big sticks and push ourselves further into the Atlantic?

 

[Benjsh]

I think we're sadly becoming very close to having Nigel Farage as our next PM. I think he might even win the next election. As much as I loathe their racist rhetoric and xenophobia......They do have a point when it comes to unsustainable immigration levels, even if they go about it in totally the wrong way.

7m Net immigration into UK since year 2000 and less than 5m new homes been built in said time in the country. Where are all these people going? Right now it would into hotels mainly as there are no more houses.

Buckle up guys. It's about to get very 1930's in the UK over the next decade. Make sure you do what you love doing at the weekends (Theme parks, football, concerts, drinking etc) to get away from it all best you can.

 

[Squiggs]

Ironically, of course, one of the people who shut down any debate about immigration is Nigel Farage.

He's more than happy to swing from the chandeliers, shouting about immigration being a problem, but the second anyone tries to pin him down on what exactly he proposes to do about it, he shuts down that discussion as quick as you like.

Because fundamentally, at this moment Farage and Reform broadly agree with Labour's current (and previous) policy, which is largely the same as the former Conservative policy*.

Farage would continue to allow immigration, but importantly refuses to be drawn on how much. I suspect that is because he knows that by his definition of 'essential' immigration will land him with the same level of immigration that Labour are proposing.

So he'll no doubt refuse to be drawn into giving any detail unless he absolutely has no other option, because currently his vague bluster allows Reform voters to believe they'll bring the numbers down to a handful (maybe tens of thousands), when the reality is the numbers will largely remain the same.

This is a fundamental problem with how politics work at the moment, the current government can be held to account for their decisions, whilst the other parties can howl vague pledges from the sidelines, without any real detail on what they'd be doing differently. This entirely allows Reform to posture like they'd be doing things differently, when in reality it would basically be the same set of policies with a bit more purple-faced bluster.

And ultimately this way of doing politics promotes a race to the bottom, and the constant cycle of 'buyer's remorse' for voters, when it turns out that a lot of the parties (Reform included) will basically continue the same policies as the last administration once voted in.



*the only real difference seems to be that Labour are actually now processing asylum claims and deporting failed applications, whereas the Tories just let them back up, leading to the asylum hotel issue

 

[Lewis232]

Also no one, from the media to politicians, seems interested in stating why we have the current immigration levels, both illegal and, by a far higher margin and massively increased levels over the past few years, legal immigration….

Brexit.

That's it. That is entirely the reason.

Overnight we reduced our talents and resources by 400m people, it had to be replaced with something or we'd have seen an even bigger drop in GDP.

The future options are:

1) Keep the high immigration levels that we have

2) Bring back freedom of movement

3) Less immigration and a huge decline in living standards and continued decline of the NHS and social care.

There is no magical fourth option that has lower immigration and sees the country going onwards and upwards.

We need to be negotiating to re-join the single market, with the concessions that entails. The alternative is we accept current levels of net migration, or we seek to reduce numbers to the detriment of an already struggling economy.

 

[Benjsh]

One of the problems we have over Brexit, and it's a very British problem, is stubbornness.

Ask a ardent brexiteer if they regret their vote and think we are better off outside the EU? Despite all the facts showing them that we are now worse off, they simply refuse to admit it they got it wrong. It's a terrible terrible trait.

I'll never vote Reform. I'd sooner not vote at all. However buckle up guys and as they are coming and it won't be pretty. There are far more idiots in this country than there are sensible folk who can interpret data. Just look at America and Trump. People can say anything these days and still get elected.

 

[rob666]

I think we're sadly becoming very close to having Nigel Farage as our next PM. I think he might even win the next election.

Having lived through the rise of half a dozen new "parties of the right" that were going to win the next general election, according to our lovely right wing press...over the last half century...I can only say cobblers.
Proud to say I kept John Kingsley Reed awake at night, he was the future prime minister according to many back in the seventies.
Even then, I just could not believe the hype, and I was right.
Didn't happen to him, or the leaders of any of the other new right parties.
They tend to self combust in petty racist arguments and other sad self created scandals, and that has already started in the Farage Club
People say what they are going to do in the next election, when it is years away... then tend to do the opposite.

 

[Matt N]

Farage does have a very big hill to climb if he wants to become PM in 2029, particularly if he wants to lead a majority government. FPTP makes it harder (albeit not impossible) for insurgent parties to rise in a meaningful way as has happened in Europe, so Reform would need to win a considerably broader coalition of voters than they did in 2024 to come even close to being able to form a majority government.

Also, as much as he has a considerable following, Farage also has a considerable amount of people who absolutely hate him and his views. He’s incredibly polarising; very few Brits have a neutral view of Farage, with most people seeming to either love him or hate him.

With that being said, I do think underestimating Reform and brushing them off as “the next far-right political fad” is an incredibly dangerous thing to do.

You know who else was repeatedly underestimated, laughed at and told he’d never win? Donald Trump. When he first ran in 2016, he was widely viewed as a bit of a joke candidate, and plenty of people thought “Surely to God he can’t actually win?”. But lo and behold, he won handsomely in 2016. And when he reran in 2024, plenty of people thought America would never re-elect him after his first stint ended with atrocities and discredited election interference accusations. But America did re-elect him, and even more handsomely than they did the first time. Trump is equally polarising as Farage, if not more so, but he was able to galvanise a broad enough cross section of the American electorate to win twice.

And to cite another example, David Cameron called a Brexit referendum thinking that a win for Remain was in the bag. The political elites of the time thought that they’d won the economic argument, so people surely wouldn’t vote Leave. But they did, with the economic argument just not resonating with the masses. And when a “Brexit election” was called in 2019 to resolve the impasse in Parliament, a heavily Brexit-backing Boris Johnson won an overwhelming victory, and won areas that had been Labour for decades against all the odds and predictions.

The reason why the populists have been so popular is because there are a considerable contingent of people in this country and others who feel left behind by the political status quo and have done for decades. Arguments and gloomy warnings about economic figures don’t mean much to these people because they already feel like the economy and “the system” is failing them. As such, they figure that they might as well take a chance on the populists promising easy answers to their issues rather than vote for the political elites who’ve neglected them for years and years.

This demographic is often forgotten, but I think it’s forgetting this demographic and belittling their concerns that allows parties like Reform to rise.

 

[Benjsh]

Having lived through the rise of half a dozen new "parties of the right" that were going to win the next general election, according to our lovely right wing press...over the last half century...I can only say cobblers.
Proud to say I kept John Kingsley Reed awake at night, he was the future prime minister according to many back in the seventies.
Even then, I just could not believe the hype, and I was right.
Didn't happen to him, or the leaders of any of the other new right parties.
They tend to self combust in petty racist arguments and other sad self created scandals, and that has already started in the Farage Club
People say what they are going to do in the next election, when it is years away... then tend to do the opposite.

Sadly the local council landslide win for them might open the floodgates now. They are gaining momentum and admirers somehow.

I think the next GE might see the biggest shift in generations. The only positive if Farage is our next PM is that he will 1000% collapse under the pressure of the job. It's really easy being in opposition.

 

[rob666]

Will be fun finding out in four years time...

 

[Matt.GC]

Reform will not win the next election. That's absurd, and not even their intention.

Being honest for once, Farage has been quite clear about his strategy for a while now. Destroy the Tories, then start mopping up their right wingers, then go after Labour. It's a long term project and always has been. True that it's been quite eye wateringly rapid and remarkable, but let's be realistic here.

There is no comparison with Trump. The US has an entirely different electoral system. Trump has infiltrated and taken over the Republican party within a 2 party system. Even if Farage launched a hostile takeover of the Tories, there is nothing to stop other parties forming a coalition against them if they fail to win a majority. This is not present in the US where federal elections are binary and winner takes all. Reform will never win 326 House of Commons seats within 4 years unless they moderated considerably. And by moderating, they not only loose their USP, but they become plain boring Therhcherite Tories.

That's not at all sexy to electorate. They cease to be Reform when they're not whispering outrageously simplistic and unrealistic fantasies into people's ears, knowing they'll never have to act on them.

Populists are popular because they're full of shit. Farage is probably kicking himself that he's won a load of councils because now his promises of Jam Tomorrow will actually have to be delivered in some capacity. I'm sure Reform HQ (which is probably the shed at the bottom of Richard Tices garden) has already gone into overdrive lining up excuses ahead of their inevitable failure. And I can't wait to hear them:

"That school wouldn't have closed if it wasn't for the Mainstream Media".

"Wokism was to blame for parking charge increases in the town centre".

"Central government forced too many immigrants on us, so we had to raise council tax".

"Councillor Smith didn't intend make a homophobic remark, it was just lads pub talk".

"Well we wouldn't have had to go to 5 weekly bin collections if we'd left the ECHR".

"It's lingering EU red tape stopping us from fixing pot holes".