2026: General Discussion

[Mick]

One interesting point that is worth noting about the pandemic is that the few years following the pandemic, from about 2023 to about 2025, had a relative CAPEX spending spree at Merlin’s UK parks compared to prior years. At Alton, we had Curse, Nemesis Reborn and Toxicator in three consecutive years, we had Ghost Train and Hyperia at Thorpe, we had Jumanji at Chessington along with a proposed waterpark (had it not entered planning purgatory, I think this would have opened by now), and we had Minifigure Speedway at Legoland along with various resort activities like the Adventure Golf.

And in the coming years, we have a really exciting couple of years at Chessington (albeit somewhat of a dry spell at the other 3 beyond Bluey at Alton).

Surely if the pandemic had hit Merlin incredibly hard or been a main cause of decline, we would have seen all of this cancelled in 2020/2021? Projects opening in 2023 and beyond would have possibly not been conceived when lockdown hit, or if conceived, they would have been in an early enough stage to get cancelled in the midst of the pandemic if Merlin had really been feeling an existential threat.

I’m not saying it didn’t have an effect, but I don’t think saying it wasn’t one of Merlin’s main reasons for decline is necessarily inaccurate.

The one point Shawn made which I do agree with, is that you can’t cut your way out of financial difficulties.

If the park hadn’t done things such as The Curse, Nemesis, Hex and the like, numbers would’ve dwindled, revenue would’ve sank, and the park would’ve entered a death spiral. Some investment is necessary and even Merlin realised that. Sadly for Alton Towers, the level of investment required to maintain/upgrade existing attractions as well as bringing in exciting new ones hasn’t quite been seen. Which is why both the statements that Alton Towers has seen a lot of investment, and Alton Towers hasn’t had much new and needs lots more, can both be true.

And the fact that we’ve seen some investment, doesn’t mean other areas hadn’t been delayed/cancelled. We’re not privy to their plans (neither is Shawn!), we can speculate on the likes of Project Horizon, as well as potentially and likely other planned projects that never made the light of day.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

One interesting point that is worth noting about the pandemic is that the few years following the pandemic, from about 2023 to about 2025, had a relative CAPEX spending spree at Merlin’s UK parks compared to prior years. At Alton, we had Curse, Nemesis Reborn and Toxicator in three consecutive years, we had Ghost Train and Hyperia at Thorpe, we had Jumanji at Chessington along with a proposed waterpark (had it not entered planning purgatory, I think this would have opened by now), and we had Minifigure Speedway at Legoland along with various resort activities like the Adventure Golf.

And in the coming years, we have a really exciting couple of years at Chessington (albeit somewhat of a dry spell at the other 3 beyond Bluey at Alton).

Surely if the pandemic had hit Merlin incredibly hard or been a main cause of decline, we would have seen all of this cancelled in 2020/2021? Projects opening in 2023 and beyond would have possibly not been conceived when lockdown hit, or if conceived, they would have been in an early enough stage to get cancelled in the midst of the pandemic if Merlin had really been feeling an existential threat.

I’m not saying it didn’t have an effect, but I don’t think saying it wasn’t one of Merlin’s main reasons for decline is necessarily inaccurate.

It's a very logical question on the surface, but it misinterprets how large scale corporate investment works, especially in a crisis.

A project like Hyperia or the Nemesis retrack isn't conceived and funded in a single year. These are 3 - 5 year projects with incredibly long lead times. The decisions, major financial commitments and contracts for the 2023-2025 "spending spree" were likely made and signed off in 2019 or early 2020, before the full, devastating economic impact of the pandemic was understood. Cancelling them midway through would have incurred massive contractual penalties, not to mention writing off millions already spent on design and groundwork. Turning an oil tanker is a slow process.

The golden rule of business is that you don't save your way out of a recession; you invest your way out. Merlin knew there would be a massive "revenge spending" boom once lockdowns ended. The absolute worst thing they could have done was to emerge from the pandemic with nothing new to offer. The CapEx spending spree was a strategic bet to capture that pent up demand and claw back market share. Not having a new headline attraction would have been commercial suicide.

This brings us to the most important point, the crucial divide between CapEx and OpEx. The money for these new rides is long term, often financed by debt, and is seen as an investment in the future value of the asset. It's about impressing the owners and lenders that there is a growth plan. The "decline" that Sanbrooke and others refer to, staff cuts, reduced hours, poor F&B, lack of upkeep, is a squeeze on the Operating Expenditure, the day to day budget for running the park. The post COVID world of high inflation, soaring energy bills and a tight labour market hit this budget like a sledgehammer.

The paradox you've identified isn't a contradiction at all, but a symptom of the problem. Merlin had the long term capital committed to build the shiny new investments, but the post COVID economy meant they could no longer afford the operating expenditure to match. COVID was an economic crisis that crippled their ability to operate at the standard we once expected.

 

[Mick]

You probably see the impact in things such as the opening hours too. With energy inflation, continuous rises to minimum wages, employers NI contributions etc, it’ll cost the park considerably more now to be open 10-4 than it did to be open until 5 or even 6 in the past, and ticket prices haven’t increased at the same rate.

And you might say this is all political stuff rather than the direct impact of COVID, but it’s all linked. Covid, and its impact on the economy, and the billions and billions the government had to put in, will be being paid back for generations and will be affecting government budget decisions for years to come.

 

[Bert2theSpark]

Pointing out Employers’ NI rises and minimum wage rises are significant, but alone they are always factored into the running costs. Them alone can come down to a technical adjustment on the balance sheet, but certainly make the increase in energy costs and debt servicing more painful.

Merlin aren’t lobbying to reverse Employer NI to cut the minimum wage (at least not publicly), they’re lobbying for cuts in the rates of VAT. Their argument is that much of Europe has much lower VAT rates for the hospitality industry compared to the UK. This is partly why their profits exploded in 2021, because they had higher attendance and lower tax on revenue.

However, from a Treasury perspective VAT makes up a significant proportion of taxation, and has done so in particularly since the Thatcher government, as it’s an indirect method of taxation that people don’t see coming out their wallet as “tax”. Would Merlin investors and executives accept Land Value Taxes or higher Income Taxes in exchange for lower VAT on the business? Probably not, but there would have to be some sort of trade-off to continue to have functioning public services. Public Services are something they need as a business, as a good proportion of their customers work in the public sector, and one of their busiest trading seasons are dependent on schools letting their students visit Merlin’s attractions.

Not to mention the Treasury is in a similar position right now where something like 10% of all tax is just going towards debt servicing. Which is particularly dangerous at the moment since there are American hedge funds that have been aggressive with buying bonds with their own debt. There’s a cycle of debt and someone has to pay it off or else the whole house of cards will once again come tumbling down.

 

[MartyP]

This thread is brilliant some fantastic points being made.
Me and my family are relatively new to Alton Towers and we have noticed a drop off in quality and performance since about 2019 when we first got Merlin passes. I think the decline in quality is also noticeable across all the Merlin Parks in the UK, but Towers does seem to be experiencing less investment.
I also saw Shaun’s video and whilst I agree with mostly what he says I am not sure he is fully on the money.
Yes Merlin promotes return customers but I suspect a significant chunk of their income are single visit families who go big, Hotels, Water Park, Park tickets, Golf etc. maximum spend for a single visit. Maybe off the back of that they will get a some follow business or pass purchases but that’s just a bonus.
IMHO the hotels arn’t at a sufficient standard to attract patrons when the park is closed. But the Hotel's arn’t open 365 to generate income to justify a massive and much needed overhaul. So it’s a bit of a catch 22 situation. But that’s much like the rest of Merlin UK Theme parks.
Operating costs are through the roof for the parks, regardless of the root cause. Labour, Material and Utilities are all rising and whilst this impacts OPEX it also means CAPEX is eastern up more quickly, meaning less big ticket investments.
The Waterpark isn’t operating to its full potential for the same reasons.
It’s at times like this a Business would borrow to get a decent return but Merlin seem to have maxed out their borrowing on ventures around the world. Which may not have paid off yet!
I suspect that’s what is needed is a back to basic principles in the UK parks, get the basic offer, food, ride and experience right and it will generate income that can be reinvested. However that will cost, which may mean ticket prices will have to rise as that is the only controllable Merlin have now that they have out sourced everything else.
It’s a very difficult situation which usually leads to disposal of assets, somewhere across the business. As they couldn’t offload the Sea Life Centres, something big may have to go.
As an after thought are Merlin responsible for maintaining the Towers/Ruins as part of a lease deal? In which case there must be minimal standards to maintain.

 

[Hid]

This thread is brilliant some fantastic points being made.
Me and my family are relatively new to Alton Towers and we have noticed a drop off in quality and performance since about 2019 when we first got Merlin passes. I think the decline in quality is also noticeable across all the Merlin Parks in the UK, but Towers does seem to be experiencing less investment.
I also saw Shaun’s video and whilst I agree with mostly what he says I am not sure he is fully on the money.
Yes Merlin promotes return customers but I suspect a significant chunk of their income are single visit families who go big, Hotels, Water Park, Park tickets, Golf etc. maximum spend for a single visit. Maybe off the back of that they will get a some follow business or pass purchases but that’s just a bonus.
IMHO the hotels arn’t at a sufficient standard to attract patrons when the park is closed. But the Hotel's arn’t open 365 to generate income to justify a massive and much needed overhaul. So it’s a bit of a catch 22 situation. But that’s much like the rest of Merlin UK Theme parks.
Operating costs are through the roof for the parks, regardless of the root cause. Labour, Material and Utilities are all rising and whilst this impacts OPEX it also means CAPEX is eastern up more quickly, meaning less big ticket investments.
The Waterpark isn’t operating to its full potential for the same reasons.
It’s at times like this a Business would borrow to get a decent return but Merlin seem to have maxed out their borrowing on ventures around the world. Which may not have paid off yet!
I suspect that’s what is needed is a back to basic principles in the UK parks, get the basic offer, food, ride and experience right and it will generate income that can be reinvested. However that will cost, which may mean ticket prices will have to rise as that is the only controllable Merlin have now that they have out sourced everything else.
It’s a very difficult situation which usually leads to disposal of assets, somewhere across the business. As they couldn’t offload the Sea Life Centres, something big may have to go.
As an after thought are Merlin responsible for maintaining the Towers/Ruins as part of a lease deal? In which case there must be minimal standards to maintain.

I actually think the only park improved under Merlin is Legoland Windsor which has far more rides then it used to. Chessington, Alton and Thorpe have lost their way primarily due to focusing on wrong things and not keeping up with upkeep

 

[Bowser]

I actually think the only park improved under Merlin is Legoland Windsor which has far more rides then it used to. Chessington, Alton and Thorpe have lost their way primarily due to focusing on wrong things and not keeping up with upkeep

I'd say Chessington has been on a positive trajectory the past 5 years and is continuing in that direction with a lot of upcoming investment.

Letting people know that new things are coming leads to more goodwill towards a park imo. You can see the same with Paultons.

AT and Thorpe feel stagnant or declining in comparison.

 

[Hid]

I'd say Chessington has been on a positive trajectory the past 5 years and is continuing in that direction with a lot of upcoming investment.

Letting people know that new things are coming leads to more goodwill towards a park imo. You can see the same with Paultons.

AT and Thorpe feel stagnant or declining in comparison.

Its a shame anything new Alton does do as they are doing this year does get shunned on little interest. Alton does get treated more critically far more than other parks.

The only reason I said Chessington is we have lost a lot of classic Chessington rides Bubbleworks being the main one

 

[Bowser]

Its a shame anything new Alton does do as they are doing this year does get shunned on little interest. Alton does get treated more critically far more than other parks.

The only reason I said Chessington is we have lost a lot of classic Chessington rides Bubbleworks being the main one

We still have Bubbleworks albeit in a different form. It's beloved by many in its new form. Chessington have generally replaced rides rather than significantly reduce their offering/capacity.

I think Alton might get treated more critically because they set such a high standard for themselves in the past. They were the number one park in the UK and many would argue in all of Europe. They were pioneers of new ride types and delivered world class theming. For many here i suspect Alton is the reason they became enthusiasts, so to see something you loved become a shadow of its former self due to a combination of reasons (but particularly neglect imo) understandably leads to criticism.

If the likes of Europa or Efteling declined in such a manner i'm sure they'd be equally criticised. They're the class and standard of theme park that Alton should be held to.

 

[BarryZola]

Its a shame anything new Alton does do as they are doing this year does get shunned on little interest. Alton does get treated more critically far more than other parks.

The only reason I said Chessington is we have lost a lot of classic Chessington rides Bubbleworks being the main one

Alton hasn't had a major brand new ride for nearly 8 years. Last year they had a Ripsaw replacement after many years of that site being mostly unused and this year they're getting a little kiddie coaster. It's no wonder people are critical. Even if Alton did suddenly make more money there's no guarantee that Merlin would see fit to pump any of that money back into Alton. They'd probably spend it helping to expand their portfolio elsewhere.

 

[Hid]

Alton hasn't had a major brand new ride for nearly 8 years. Last year they had a Ripsaw replacement after many years of that site being mostly unused and this year they're getting a little kiddie coaster. It's no wonder people are critical. Even if Alton did suddenly make more money there's no guarantee that Merlin would see fit to pump any of that money back into Alton. They'd probably spend it helping to expand their portfolio elsewhere.

All rides nowadays are replacements mostly for developed parks. I wouldn't call Bluey the Ride a little kiddie coaster its quite a bit bigger than most kids coasters

 

[rob666]

Bluey the Ride is a little kiddie coaster.
No question.

If it wasn't, I might be a little interested in riding it.

 

[Hid]

Bluey the Ride is a little kiddie coaster.
No question.

If it wasn't, I might be a little interested in riding it.

A little Kiddie Coaster would be an oval or figure of 8 layout coaster its a medium sized

 

[rob666]

Still lacking in size, it is a small kids coaster, nothing more
Some punctuation, again, would make your posts much more readable.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Still lacking in size, it is a small kids coaster, nothing more
Some punctuation, again, would make your posts much more readable.

what it lacks in size it makes up for in punch because its much longer than just a small kiddie coaster and has two helixes or is that helixi or even just helix we should also ignore that the ip is a kids ip because well adults like bluey too so really its a ride for the whole family and it exactly what alton towers needs rite now because it is doomed along with merlin only chessie rly getting stuff now even thorpe is being left alone so yh thats what i think at least.

 

[Bowser]

All rides nowadays are replacements mostly for developed parks.

Which is it? Either way i don't think this is true as plenty of developed parks either have expansion space or work new attractions into existing locations (such as Drakon being built round the former Cobra at Paultons) but if a park is replacing something then you'd hope they are upgrading on what came before.

Minecraft at Chessington will almost certainly be a massive improvement on what was in that location previously. Danse Macabre at Efteling is an incredible replacement. You can guarantee the Euro-Mir replacement at Europe will be something special. Whereas Alton's last brand new ride Toxicator was essentially a like for like replacement almost 10 years later and this is a park with plenty of space for development without removing existing attractions.

 

[rob666]

what it lacks in size it makes up for in punch because its much longer than just a small kiddie coaster and has two helixes or is that helixi or even just helix we should also ignore that the ip is a kids ip because well adults like bluey too so really its a ride for the whole family and it exactly what alton towers needs rite now because it is doomed along with merlin only chessie rly getting stuff now even thorpe is being left alone so yh thats what i think at least.

You see goosey...you still missed one.
Full stop at the end lovey.
Gotcha.

So closed season.