2017/18: SW8 Speculation

[AstroDan]

Merlin are definitely on a 4 year cycle now, Thorpe provide the best example as their next big thing is 2016, after a delay from this year...

So we get 3 small investments and 1 big one...

Alton Towers don't fit this small small small large cycle.

I'm not concerned by it.

 

[James]

Does anybody know why Alton have jumped off the 3 year development cycle that was planned in the LTDP?

Has it even been confirmed? I see CBeebies and this Octocrap coaster as being the medium/small developments for 2014/2015 as planned, so surely SW8 is due for 2016?

...and perhaps Blade's removal soon is a step towards that. Afterall, I wouldn't consider a small replacement flat ride to be "exciting" in any way as Towers said on their Twitter.

Seems everything else is going according to plan, apart from a few minor things.

Apart from people 'in the know' saying Merlin has moved to a 4 year cycle, we do have proof of this from Merlin. They hosted an Analyst event last year and in that presentation it mentions the new 4 year cycle.

You can find it on this page on the 30th October Analyst Event document.

 

[Tom]

I don't think it's quite as robust as that, although it will be their target.

I think the 2016 thing at Thorpe will be a 'low' but possibly more medium if it costs £3-4m. If it was a high then you've be looking at 2020 for the next big thing, IE coaster, and that's extremely unlikely in my view.

 

[Rob]

I think the 2016 thing at Thorpe will be a 'low' but possibly more medium if it costs £3-4m. If it was a high then you've be looking at 2020 for the next big thing, IE coaster, and that's extremely unlikely in my view.

Thorpe's dark ride next year is most certainly not low or medium. It is categorically a high investment. Of course we don't know the cost exactly but I believe it is costing more than The Swarm for example. You can't do a major dark ride at a major park on a very low budget unless you want it to be laughed at.

As for Towers, the 'low' years are clearly not as low as they are for other Merlin parks. Towers seem to get the best in-between investments from Merlin.

 

[Tom]

Thorpe's dark ride next year is most certainly not low or medium. It is categorically a high investment. Of course we don't know the cost exactly but I believe it is costing more than The Swarm for example. You can't do a major dark ride at a major park on a very low budget unless you want it to be laughed at.

As for Towers, the 'low' years are clearly not as low as they are for other Merlin parks. Towers seem to get the best in-between investments from Merlin.

Unless I've missed something - which is certainly possible - then all we know about is the building building so far. Why does that have to have something incredibly expensive inside? We have seen from other attractions in the past, including those added by Merlin themselves that this doesn't have to be the case.

If you are correct and it is indeed a big investment, then it's going to be eight years without the addition of a major new rollercoaster based on the strategy they have outlined. Even with Thorpe's family-friendly drive of late, I find this rather unlikely.

Another possibility is that this new thing is a big investment and they will STILL build a new rollercoaster the year after or relatively soon, but that doesn't seem to fit their one-on, three-off stratgey. As I said earlier, I'm not sure that will be as rigidly applied as that shareholder brief made out.

 

[Dave]

All the rumours coming out of Thorpe suggest it is a big investment. No idea what that means for their next coaster.

 

[Ketz]

Do you think the Thorpe park Dark ride is going to test the water for a possible dark ride for Alton in the furtue, they used to likes of Saw for planning of the Smiler.

 

[Tom]

I don't think Saw was a direct guinea pig for Alton Towers, but it was a venture into using another manufacturer. Merlin will be keen to play people off against each other when tendering now and I think the days of the parks being permanently in bed with B&M are well and truly over - that's not to say they won't win individual deals on their own merits of course.

 

[Rupert]

Isn't Thorpe's plan an elaborate jungle-themed walkthrough? It looks like it'll cost hardly anything, surely not more than a couple of million.

 

[smudge]

I'm a celebrity walkthrough Is opening this year - the high investment is opening 2016.

Supposedly.

 

[_nemesis_]

Thorpe's new dark ride is costing stupid money. More than The Smiler and Thirteen combined from what I've been hearing. Although, of all the parks, Thorpe definitely follow the 4-year cycle the most, everything but major additions can't have cost more than £1 million.

But yeah, 2017 at Towers.

 

[Dave]

Thorpe's new dark ride is costing stupid money. More than The Smiler and Thirteen combined from what I've been hearing. Although, of all the parks, Thorpe definitely follow the 4-year cycle the most, everything but major additions can't have cost more than £1 million.

But yeah, 2017 at Towers.

So £32 million?

 

[AstroDan]

I have also heard that TP's new dark ride is costing around £30m.

Could just be staff rumour though from TP.

 

[Ketz]

If that's the case then is should be a very good ride, after all not many rides cost that amount, but it also gives a slight glimpse too what they might be, cus it will be very hard too spend that amount on a basic tracked dark ride transit system.

So that I think only leaves two options, trackless, which can easily be done with this amount, or a motion 3D ride, which again could be done.

Hopefully it's not a lame imitation, or a ride that underutilising a good system with poor theming.

Just out of interest what areas within Alton doesn't require planning permission?

 

[Dave]

Just out of interest what areas within Alton doesn't require planning permission?

Its a tricky question, there is a GDO which covers (i am fairly sure), Adventure Land, X-Sector, Cloud Cuckoo and Dark Forest. The big issue with the GDO is it doesn't allow them to build anything, it's basically rides and buildings below a certain size. An example is The Smiler, the roller coaster itself almost certainly didn't require planning consent (they mention that in the application). But the station building did, hence why an application was made.

If Towers get a big dark ride it will almost certainly be in the Duel building, though the current rumour mill certainly suggests a coaster for the next big investment.

 

[PeteB]

Apart from people 'in the know' saying Merlin has moved to a 4 year cycle, we do have proof of this from Merlin. They hosted an Analyst event last year and in that presentation it mentions the new 4 year cycle.

You can find it on this page on the 30th October Analyst Event document.

I really don't think that applies to Merlin's top 2 UK attractions. For starters the peak projects haven't been in the £10m-£12m range since the 90's. We're way beyond that now.

I do wonder though, if Thorpe have jumped on the 4 year bandwagon simply in order to have a bigger budgets for the dark ride, because as we know, good dark rides require more papers. For £30m they could have stuck to the 3 year cycle and put in 2 very decent-ish rides.

Perhaps that in itself is the reason for the all parks switching to 4 year? Less developments but far bigger budget ones?

Its a tricky question, there is a GDO which covers (i am fairly sure), Adventure Land, X-Sector, Cloud Cuckoo and Dark Forest. The big issue with the GDO is it doesn't allow them to build anything, it's basically rides and buildings below a certain size. An example is The Smiler, the roller coaster itself almost certainly didn't require planning consent (they mention that in the application). But the station building did, hence why an application was made.

If Towers get a big dark ride it will almost certainly be in the Duel building, though the current rumour mill certainly suggests a coaster for the next big investment.

Interestingly, the Duel building is very low profile as far as warehouse style buildings go. They could stick a whole bunch of them in coaster corner, have it all dark rides, plus indoor attractions = no noise. Win!

 

[Dave]

We can but hope they build some dark rides up there. There might be some limitations due to the iron age archeology up in coaster corner but if they stuck to areas previously built on it could get permission.

 

[Benzin]

Gutting the Charlie building would also be an idea for a pre-existing dark ride building...

 

[Rob]

Gutting the Charlie building would also be an idea for a pre-existing dark ride building...

Gutting the Charlie building would be an excellent idea regardless...

 

[Ketz]

Surely Charlie will go in the near future, but will the the ride itself go. I think boat rides often struggle with story telling, with all sorts of timing problems all the time.