Alton Towers Resort: What Does The Future Hold?

[Matt N]

Hi guys. I’ve decided to make this topic because in the Major Operational Changes for 2018 thread about the staggered openings and Rapids’ reduced operating schedule, some interesting discussion has been bought up regarding the future of the theme park and the resort in general. Firstly, I am aware that there are already multiple threads about things such as future developments, future owners etc., but this thread is more to discuss the park’s general future. So, there are many things that could potentially happen in the next 10, 15, 20, even 50 years with Alton.

I personally reckon that in terms of the resort’s general future, there are a couple of different ways it could go. The first way is new ownership for the Resort in the coming years. If this were to happen, then I could see many ambitious new plans for the theme park and wider resort being proposed, similar to what happened upon Tussauds’ purchase in 1990 and Merlin’s purchase in 2007. As for what sort of buyer would purchase Alton, I’m unsure as to whether it would be a private equity firm, a small company looking to increase their influence in the theme park industry or an already established theme park operator. I reckon that this is quite a possible option, but:
A) I don’t see any reason why Merlin would sell Towers as they didn’t jump ship after June 2015.
B) I’m not sure if anybody would be willing to take on Towers, as I can imagine it’s currently quite a risky property in a financial sense, even if it is slowly recovering.

The second way is Merlin keeping the Resort, but de-emphasising the theme park so that it becomes a mere side attraction as part of a much larger holiday resort with a large amount of accommodation and many other activities on the side. If this were to happen, I could see the park building some more “second gate attractions” such as an entertainment complex and expanding the water park, along with substantial expansion in the accommodation department. I don’t know whether the theme park would see any investment as part of this, but I see this option as somewhat likely. Less likely than selling on, but still somewhat likely due to Merlin’s high interest in accommodation and accommodation-related things.

The third way is Merlin keeping the park largely the same as it is now, with major rides getting built every 3-5 years. I see this as a somewhat likely option, but not massively likely. I see it as likely because it would probably require the least expenditure on Merlin’s part, but would keep money flowing in. However, I don’t see it as too likely due to the fact that if they continued with the same budget cuts as now, visitor numbers might decrease massively and the Resort’s reputation might be damaged, which leads nicely into the fourth and final way...

The final way, and the way that I consider the least desirable as well as the least likely, is permanent closure of the theme park. If this were to happen, then Merlin would be free of what looks to be a financial and PR burden for the company, but then the park would be gone and the enthusiasts would probably be in mass mourning outside the Towers. Also, what would become of the rides is unknown. The Towers and Gardens would probably be reopened as their own tourist attraction by English Heritage or another heritage company, but many of Alton Towers’ rides are the sort that I would imagine to be quite difficult to relocate. Of course the more “standard” rides, like Spinball and Rita, would be relatively problem-free, but rides like Nemesis and Smiler that are specially designed to fit into a pit would be incredibly hard/expensive to relocate. I personally think that the park still gets enough visitors and has a good enough reputation for this not to happen, but I’m only suggesting this as a possibility. This possibility is the one that I personally see as least likely and the one that I would like to happen the least, as I mentioned above.

I would be keen to hear some of your thoughts.
P.S. Sorry if this comes across as badly written. Essay-style posts are not really my strong point.

 

[Matt.GC]

I still think the park is up for sale. It's unlikely it will get bought however, so I think the park will limp on in its current state as an accessory to MAP sales, a mere logo in amongst the others on the MAP website.

 

[Altonadvocate1]

I consider myself to be one of Towersstreets more optimistic posters, but I'm having a hard time with this.

New coaster if marketed correctly can get the gate up. If they throw everything they have into the guest experience this year, these people will come back. If these people spend hours queuing and waiting for whole areas to open they won't.

This is an opportunity to put AT back in pole position that is being utterly squandered.

They have a huge hotel that closes half the year due to lack of demand, yet they spend huge sums on more unneeded accommodation whilst squeezing the theme park operating budget to the extent that it cannot function as a viable theme park.

American Adventure began with cuts, and ended with closure. I fear the worst.

I love AT and want it to succeed, but if they cant make it economically viable and visitor acceptable in a SW year then when can they ever?

 

[TB174]

It’s a scary and upsetting time. I think we need to prepare for the worst as I can’t see the park surviving past 2020 if it stays on it’s current track.

 

[Benjsh]

The accident has had a bigger impact than many think. Two years now of gate figures being down a good 600k or so per year. That's a huge huge drop in gate figures. That's 1.2m people not walked through the gates that would usually. The park didn't plan for that obviously and it's hit them very very hard. I can't imagine what 1.2m less people equates to in lost ticket sales, F&B, Merch, Car parking, Fastrack sales etc. Fair to say it's not peanuts.

I'm actually amazed they've even managed to go ahead with SW8 personally.

 

[Altonadvocate1]

Fair enough, some cuts were necessary after the drop in gate numbers, but hell, it's a secret weapon year. This is the opportunity for the mother of all comebacks.

Do whatever it takes to get as many people as possible through the gate, show them AT at it's best, give them such a great time that will just have to come back or purchase that coveted Merlin Annual pass.

A little relaxation of the budget now could pay dividends. Wickerman is the instrument to do this.

Let's face it, NEW FOR 2019, WORLDS FIRST THEME PARK GOLDFISH BOWL ATTRACTION BY SEALIFE isn't going to do the job.

 

[Matt N]

The accident has had a bigger impact than many think. Two years now of gate figures being down a good 600k or so per year. That's a huge huge drop in gate figures. That's 1.2m people not walked through the gates that would usually. The park didn't plan for that obviously and it's hit them very very hard. I can't imagine what 1.2m less people equates to in lost ticket sales, F&B, Merch, Car parking, Fastrack sales etc. Fair to say it's not peanuts.

I'm actually amazed they've even managed to go ahead with SW8 personally.

Indeed. According to the TEA Attendance Report for 2015, the park lost 650,000 guests in 2015, going from 2,575,000 in 2014 to 1,925,000 in 2015, equating to a 25.2% decrease. That is one quarter of Alton's guests not returning in 2015, which is huge no matter how you think about it. Cutbacks had to be made and there was no way that the park could avoid that possibility. However, I'm not sure that closing rides was the way to go about it. The park did not really buck the visitor trend in 2016, either, with only 55,000 more guests visiting, signalling a 2.9% increase which bought them up to 1,980,000 guests in 2016. I am currently unaware of how the park did in 2017, but I am sensing another increase.

 

[Benjsh]

Indeed. According to the TEA Attendance Report for 2015, the park lost 650,000 guests in 2015, going from 2,575,000 in 2014 to 1,925,000 in 2015, equating to a 25.2% decrease. That is one quarter of Alton's guests not returning in 2015, which is huge no matter how you think about it. Cutbacks had to be made and there was no way that the park could avoid that possibility. However, I'm not sure that closing rides was the way to go about it. The park did not really buck the visitor trend in 2016, either, with only 55,000 more guests visiting, signalling a 2.9% increase which bought them up to 1,980,000 guests in 2016. I am currently unaware of how the park did in 2017, but I am sensing another increase.

I would hazard a guess at another small rise again although I'm not really basing that on anything than gut feeling.

It's going to be a rather flat year considering it's a SW year. Such a bloody shame.

 

[Matt N]

I would hazard a guess at another small rise again although I'm not really basing that on anything than gut feeling.

It's going to be a rather flat year considering it's a SW year. Such a bloody shame.

I am sensing no higher than 2,100,000 in 2017, personally. I originally reckoned 2018 would see a huge increase for the park and it would be their big comeback year, but I'm not so sure now people are lashing out at them for the staggered openings. Can somebody please explain to me why it was staggered openings that made so many people turn against them, as I personally thought that 2016's ride closures were worse? Like, I get that staggered openings are bad, but physical ride closures are worse, even if some were for TLC.

 

[Benjsh]

I am sensing no higher than 2,100,000 in 2017, personally. I originally reckoned 2018 would see a huge increase for the park and it would be their big comeback year, but I'm not so sure now people are lashing out at them for the staggered openings. Can somebody please explain to me why it was staggered openings that made so many people turn against them, as I personally thought that 2016's ride closures were worse? Like, I get that staggered openings are bad, but physical ride closures are worse, even if some were for TLC.

The backlash so far has only been from MAP holders / enthusiasts on the whole. The GP will be a whole other level.

 

[Crawleyboy01]

The future holds no more visits from myself and my family sadtimes

 

[AltonBuzz]

Can somebody please explain to me why it was staggered openings that made so many people turn against them, as I personally thought that 2016's ride closures were worse? Like, I get that staggered openings are bad, but physical ride closures are worse, even if some were for TLC.

I guess because rides were closed under the guise of "maintenance" some people were were prepared to let them off but this is much harder to gloss over. Also people don't want to be herded around with staggered openings and have concerns about crowd congestion and inflated queue times.

Their motto is "Making Britain happy"...if you have a mission statement like that but don't mean it with any sincerity or authenticity well that's just tacky. However it's a perfectly good motto and a principle they should stick to make the resort successful going into the future.

 

[Crawleyboy01]

I think people are so annoyed for the staggered openings for a number of reasons. Yes as said the rides being SNBO are bad but lets be honest who cares about most of them. Like honestly? Hex closing a few years ago was a massive one but look what was returned to us. This isn't taking something away on the promise to give us back a better experience. Nemesis is the best uk coaster. I don't know many who will disagree with that. With it opening at 12 and the new coaster opening this year it will be the next coaster most people will head for after riding wickerman. So that means massive ques. And I also think a lot of people expect a flagship ride like nemesis etc to be open...I mean if it's in working order then open the damn thing

 

[Matt.GC]

The accident has had a bigger impact than many think. Two years now of gate figures being down a good 600k or so per year. That's a huge huge drop in gate figures. That's 1.2m people not walked through the gates that would usually. The park didn't plan for that obviously and it's hit them very very hard. I can't imagine what 1.2m less people equates to in lost ticket sales, F&B, Merch, Car parking, Fastrack sales etc. Fair to say it's not peanuts.

I'm actually amazed they've even managed to go ahead with SW8 personally.

You mean the accident that THEIR operational negligence caused?

I simply don't buy "the accident" excuses. It could be argued that an immediate drop in guest figures was caused by the accident, but it's failure to recover properly is self inflicted.

There's plenty of evidence of that (and Merlin probably have this evidence in black and white figures) that when events such as Scarefest and fireworks are on, people want to visit the park. Basically when the opening hours are longer and entertainment is laid on.

Instead of letting the lawn grow, Merlin are getting the lawn mower out every time a green shoot appears.

 

[Benjsh]

You mean the accident that THEIR operational negligence caused?

I simply don't buy "the accident" excuses. It could be argued that an immediate drop in guest figures was caused by the accident, but it's failure to recover properly is self inflicted.

There's plenty of evidence of that (and Merlin probably have this evidence in black and white figures) that when events such as Scarefest and fireworks are on, people want to visit the park. Basically when the opening hours are longer and entertainment is laid on.

Instead of letting the lawn grow, Merlin are getting the lawn mower out every time a green shoot appears.

I'm not a Merlin fan so I'm not defending them. The accident has hit then more than you think. Their reputation with us enthusiasts was already falling but the GP aren't as clued up. They've lost 25% of their footfall and that's mainly down to the accident and bad publicity after the event. You're a fool to suggest otherwise.

I'd Hazard a conservative guess of £50m in lost revenue. And that's a conservative estimate. That's a hell of a lot of money to miss out on.

As for operational negligence....perhaps but that doesn't make all the cash and customers come back.

 

[RoyJess]

The accident has hit them hard, but it was proven in court that it was an accident of their own doing, but we are all paying the price for this by having our fun reduced. Cuts were implemented before the accident due to keeping the shareholders happy. The accident should have been a wake up call and they should have used this to turn things around and do what they could to bring back paying guest as oppose to alienate them.

As a regular guest, like many others, we supported the park after the incident and we accepted (even though we didn't like them) some of the cuts with the understanding that given a year or two for the incident to blow over, that things will get better. The fact that they are making cuts to the park when they are launching a major new ride, shows to me that things are not going to get any better and if they carry on the way that they are, the park will certainly be run into the ground beyond saving.

 

[Matt.GC]

You're a fool to suggest otherwise.

Ah yes, a good old fashioned slagging off and name calling session first thing in the morning, always good to see when debating things of a circumstantial nature. I shouldn't really dignify such a vitriolic defense of something so simple with a response but then I guess I'm that kind of guy:

There is evidence that the crash has had an impact of course. It's 25% approx as you said. So the impact is not worse than we thought.... because it's 25%.

The impact the crash has on the recovery is completely unmeasurable, so I would say it's foolish for a business to conclude "ah well there was crash, nothing we can do" and absolve itself of responsibility of having a proper recovery strategy.

 

[Benjsh]

I think you're being a bit precious there tbh mate. It was meant as "you'd be a fool" to think otherwise. I thought that was fairly clear. I wasn't having a go. I'm not the kind to do so and I don't like Merlin anyway.

Have you ever ran your own business? 25% is a hell of lot of custom to miss out on. You sound like you believe everything should be as normal then and hardly anything will be effected. I can tell you that I have ran my own business in the past (for 5 years) and it's incredibly stressful and losses of contracts can really hurt. This is just the same thing but on a bigger scale. And they've haven't gave up have they? They have gone ahead with Wickerman afterall. I'm all for giving them a kicking but it's not as simple as carry on as normal is it? Cuts have had to come.

 

[Matt.GC]

Most of this post is irrelevant. I thought I made it "preciously" clear that I was making a point about gate figures being suppressed by cuts.

 

[Themeparksandy1981]

With the theme park business in the uk it's hard to think where it will all be say in 20 years time. With Merlin been the 2nd biggest company in the theme park world it's hard to see who will buy Alton Towers as I guess they also would get Thorpe park and Chessington also.
Merlin would keep the other parks and midway attractions as they are what's making the company the most money.
I think with the park been least hold will put a lot of buyers off as all you will be getting is the name and everything on the land. There still 24 years left on the least so really unless Merlin buy the freehold back off Nick I can't see anyone buying it unless they get it at a good price.