The (hypothetical) Universal Impact - Merlin's response. Tanks on their lawn, or golden opportunities?

[Relife]

If I can travel to France or Spain with no issues then it shouldn't be an issue the other way round. The Brexit travel impact for holidays is massively overstated. Let's not pretend that travelling to America is hastle free either.

 

[Dave]

If I can travel to France or Spain with no issues then it shouldn't be an issue the other way round. The Brexit travel impact for holidays is massively overstated. Let's not pretend that travelling to America is hastle free either.

I agree Brexit won’t stop people traveling to the UK to visit universal: Brexit has made travel annoying for tourists due to increased queues but it’s not a blocker.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

If I can travel to France or Spain with no issues then it shouldn't be an issue the other way round.

Aside from anecdote not being the plural of data, that's the nature of freedom of movement, but we've opted to stop that. ETIAS is due to kick in next year, which will make it more difficult to travel to the EU from the UK. Not impossible, but not frictionless like it is now. An element of difficulty, which wasn't there before, is being introduced so it will be more difficult than it was previously. Online registration, fees and finger printing.

We're also introducing similar measures ourselves, but at a slower pace.

The Brexit travel impact for holidays is massively overstated.

Arguably the impact hasn't been measurable for enough time yet, so we can't say with certainly eitherway. The overall number of EU visitors to the UK have fallen, and there are fewer than before freedom of movement ended, but that coincided with the pandemic and a global freeze of movement. The numbers haven't yet recovered to the level of growth expected pre-pandemic.

Let's not pretend that travelling to America is hastle free either.

Travelling to the US isn't hassle free, but they have a massive domestic market which dwarves the international market. Most US citizens do not own a passport. The population of the US alone is around 333 million. Its own tourist market can sustain itself. It doesn't rely on international tourism.

The point that I was making, in reference to @Matt.GC's post is that of all of the countries you could choose to set up a European destination, why would you pick the UK right now? We've had years of a hostile attitude toward 'foreigners' and our closest trading partners and tourists. We've also just stopped 448 million people from being able to work and visit here easily, with the hospitality and construction sectors acutely feeling the staff shortage effects of Brexit.

We haven't just made it more difficult for tourists to visit, we've made it more difficult for overseas skilled workers to work here too.

It would be ridiculous to suggest that Brexit happening makes the UK more attractive for Universal (I'm aware you didn't make this point). It would be ridiculous to suggest that Brexit happening won't have made the UK less attractive to invest in than it was previously. In an ideal world I'm sure they'd quite like the freedom of movement for potential visitors and workers back.

 

[rob666]

I think you need to look outside Europe for your current international tourist market, simple as that.
Britain may have fallen off the map in Europe, but it still flies very high in relation to world travel...with the new focus coming in from the east.
People visit Britain from all over the world as tourists, this will be another reason to come, and a big part of Universals decision to locate here.
Sadly, Heathrow is back to breaking travel records yet again, as if brexit, covid and climate change were all a sad dream.

 

[Matt N]

This may seem like an odd suggestion, but I have a suspicion that one reason behind Universal picking the UK is due to the UK’s close cultural relationship with the USA.

In many ways, the UK and the US are like two peas in a pod culturally. In geopolitical circles, people always talk about “the special relationship” between the two countries, we share a language, and we share a lot of cultural aspects with the USA.

“But why is that important to Universal choosing the UK to build in?” I hear you ask. Well, I think it’s an important aspect to consider because of Disneyland Paris. If we cast our minds back to the early 90s, the French emphatically rejected DLP as an unwelcome invasion of their country’s culture, with news outlets calling it derisive things such as “a cultural Chernobyl” and the park being hit by protests and such. I wouldn’t mind betting that this was quite a significant factor in Disneyland Paris’ financial failure.

With this in mind, I think Universal would have been wise to learn from the mistakes of DLP and pick a country where they know they will be welcomed with open arms. With the UK being a close cultural ally of the USA, I think that we were one of the safer bets in Europe in that regard.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

I think you need to look outside Europe for your current international tourist market, simple as that.
Britain may have fallen off the map in Europe, but it still flies very high in relation to world travel...with the new focus coming in from the east.
People visit Britain from all over the world as tourists, this will be another reason to come, and a big part of Universals decision to locate here.
Sadly, Heathrow is back to breaking travel records yet again, as if brexit, covid and climate change were all a sad dream.

The most recent data available from the Office of National Statistics (year end 2023) shows that the rate of international tourism to the UK still hasn't returned to the same level as 2019 (pre-pandemic, post-Brexit).

Travel trends - Office for National Statistics

Annual estimates of completed international visits to and from the UK, and earnings and expenditure associated with these visits.

www.ons.gov.uk

7 of the top 10 visiting countries to the UK are from EU member states. The other three are USA, Canada and Australia. The far east doesn't factor, but I haven't looked at the growth numbers in detail yet.

Heathrow is back to breaking travel records again, but it does act as an international transfer hub. The increase in Heathrow numbers can chiefly be explained by connecting flights, at at the expense of other UK airports for destinations. Additionally the number of UK nationals travelling abroad has almost reached pre-pandemic levels again, with more opting to travel from Heathrow than other UK airports.

For an awkward analogy, BBC Radio 6 Music is breaking listener records for a digital radio station. Radio listening in general is decreasing in measurables. Heathrow breaking its own records doesn't mean that travel as a whole is also doing similarly well.

Edit: @Matt N your suggestion isn't an odd one at all, it's probably the only reasonable explanation (or at least the primary one), especially with the USA being our primary single source of tourism.

 

[Squiggs]

I would say that hidden in the middle on @Matt N's post was also the common language. I suspect that sharing a language with Universal's primary market would also be a significant factor in offsetting any concerns about the UK being a country on the edge of the European Union.

It will take a lot of pressure off the development, not having to handle (as much) dual language operation, as happens at Disneyland Paris.

 

[Matt.GC]

This may seem like an odd suggestion, but I have a suspicion that one reason behind Universal picking the UK is due to the UK’s close cultural relationship with the USA.

In many ways, the UK and the US are like two peas in a pod culturally. In geopolitical circles, people always talk about “the special relationship” between the two countries, we share a language, and we share a lot of cultural aspects with the USA.

“But why is that important to Universal choosing the UK to build in?” I hear you ask. Well, I think it’s an important aspect to consider because of Disneyland Paris. If we cast our minds back to the early 90s, the French emphatically rejected DLP as an unwelcome invasion of their country’s culture, with news outlets calling it derisive things such as “a cultural Chernobyl” and the park being hit by protests and such. I wouldn’t mind betting that this was quite a significant factor in Disneyland Paris’ financial failure.

With this in mind, I think Universal would have been wise to learn from the mistakes of DLP and pick a country where they know they will be welcomed with open arms. With the UK being a close cultural ally of the USA, I think that we were one of the safer bets in Europe in that regard.

Not an odd suggestion at all Matt. It's actually a very good one. American culture isn't anywhere near as popular in mainland Europe as it is here. As sad as I personally think this is, I've noticed American culture becoming even more popular here over the last 20 years. Plus the language thing too. Economically though, I still don't understand it but I'm going off topic.

 

[jon81uk]

Not an odd suggestion at all Matt. It's actually a very good one. American culture isn't anywhere near as popular in mainland Europe as it is here. As sad as I personally think this is, I've noticed American culture becoming even more popular here over the last 20 years. Plus the language thing too. Economically though, I still don't understand it but I'm going off topic.

Although American culture/holidays is of less interest to Gen Z than it was to Gen X and millennials. I think we did reach peak USA in the late 90s. Look at the rise in K-pop and similar.

 

[imanautie]

That's two different questions in the poll, I suspect merlin will actually do a few poster child projects but overall spending wouldn't be improved nearly enough to what they should

 

[Tom]

You missed:
Add more caravans with staff that shout "WE'RE PINEAPPLE" at anyone presenting an annual pass in the hope of discount.

 

[lee2804]

The most recent data available from the Office of National Statistics (year end 2023) shows that the rate of international tourism to the UK still hasn't returned to the same level as 2019 (pre-pandemic, post-Brexit).

Travel trends - Office for National Statistics

Annual estimates of completed international visits to and from the UK, and earnings and expenditure associated with these visits.

www.ons.gov.uk

7 of the top 10 visiting countries to the UK are from EU member states. The other three are USA, Canada and Australia. The far east doesn't factor, but I haven't looked at the growth numbers in detail yet.

Heathrow is back to breaking travel records again, but it does act as an international transfer hub. The increase in Heathrow numbers can chiefly be explained by connecting flights, at at the expense of other UK airports for destinations. Additionally the number of UK nationals travelling abroad has almost reached pre-pandemic levels again, with more opting to travel from Heathrow than other UK airports.

For an awkward analogy, BBC Radio 6 Music is breaking listener records for a digital radio station. Radio listening in general is decreasing in measurables. Heathrow breaking its own records doesn't mean that travel as a whole is also doing similarly well.

Edit: @Matt N your suggestion isn't an odd one at all, it's probably the only reasonable explanation (or at least the primary one), especially with the USA being our primary single source of tourism.

Bloody hell. How anti britain can 1 person be. In your eyes we are back to the middle ages. When comparing ourselves with other EU countries we are performing equal if not better than them on many economical factors.

Ive travelled to and from many countries around the world china, usa and many EU ones and never had a problem getting there or back. Delays can happen for a number of reasons and the fact someone has to wait 1hr at customs as opposed to 10 mins wont make a blind bit of difference.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

When comparing ourselves with other EU countries we are performing equal if not better than them on many economical factors.

The only economic measurement in which we're outperforming current EU member states is in economic growth. Our economy crashed further than any other EU member state during COVID, and after, and has had more ground to make up than other nations. The further you fall, the more room you've got to grow afterward.

You and I both start off with £100, but I drop £80 on the floor. I now have £20 and you have £100. In one year we compare how much money we have. My value has increased (I've grown by) by 100%, but I only have £40. Your value has increased by 10%, but you have £110.

Growth isn't sustainable at the same rate forever, so eventually it will taper off. This is all digressing though.

Bloody hell. How anti britain can 1 person be. In your eyes we are back to the middle ages.

It's not about being "anti British", it's about being an economic realist. To not admit the shocking state of affairs you're in, and to pretend as though everything's ok, leading you to not do anything about it is "anti British". Playing the fiddle whilst Rome is burning doesn't make you a patriot.

Ive travelled to and from many countries around the world china, usa and many EU ones and never had a problem getting there or back. Delays can happen for a number of reasons and the fact someone has to wait 1hr at customs as opposed to 10 mins wont make a blind bit of difference.

As I've said before, anecdote is not the plural of data, and it's not just about tourists being able to travel easier, but let's run with your offered numbers for a second.

If one person has to wait an additional 50 minutes at customs, that's a lost 50 minutes. If 100 extra people have to wait an additional 50 minutes at customs, that's a lost 83.3 hours. If 1,000 people have to wait at customs that's a lost 34 days. That's not a blind bit of difference, that's just maths.

 

[DistortAMG]

The only economic measurement in which we're outperforming current EU member states is in economic growth. Our economy crashed further than any other EU member state during COVID, and after, and has had more ground to make up than other nations. The further you fall, the more room you've got to grow afterward.

You and I both start off with £100, but I drop £80 on the floor. I now have £20 and you have £100. In one year we compare how much money we have. My value has increased (I've grown by) by 100%, but I only have £40. Your value has increased by 10%, but you have £110.

Growth isn't sustainable at the same rate forever, so eventually it will taper off. This is all digressing though.

It's not about being "anti British", it's about being an economic realist. To not admit the shocking state of affairs you're in, and to pretend as though everything's ok, leading you to not do anything about it is "anti British". Playing the fiddle whilst Rome is burning doesn't make you a patriot.

As I've said before, anecdote is not the plural of data, and it's not just about tourists being able to travel easier, but let's run with your offered numbers for a second.

If one person has to wait an additional 50 minutes at customs, that's a lost 50 minutes. If 100 extra people have to wait an additional 50 minutes at customs, that's a lost 83.3 hours. If 1,000 people have to wait at customs that's a lost 34 days. That's not a blind bit of difference, that's just maths.

Great post, so, so true too. I am proud of being British, but I do not let the reality / facts and a lack of understanding cloud my judgement as many people do. Case in point, the quoted posts.

 

[Matt.GC]

Bloody hell. How anti britain can 1 person be. In your eyes we are back to the middle ages.

How on earth did you come to that conclusion? If your mechanic says you need a new cambelt, does that make them anti-car? If @GooseOnTheLoose was burning Union Jacks in front of you and rolling gunpowder kegs down Whitehall I'd agree with you. But making such a deduction from a post discussing investment conditions is a bit of a jump wouldn't you say?

 

[Tom]

Is this the same as "talking Britain down", which is roughly equivalent to "speaking facts" or "speaking likely facts"?

 

[Blackrock]

The fact is Britain and every EU member state have all fallen below the wayside, the US has massively outgrown every single European economy. Even compared to ten years ago!

The UK has a lot going for it, luckily we have a huge financial services sector. We have a buzzing film/tv sector thanks to the tories very generous tax breaks. Our medical/scientific fields are some of the best around the world, we lead in many sectors or are extremely close to the top of the table.

The UK isn’t perfect by any means. But the IMF have predicted that Britain will overtake France and Germany by 2028 to have the highest GDP of any European nation.

Admittedly that doesn’t mean anything if GDP per capita is still down in the dumps.

 

[Tom]

We're currently at 3 trillion versus Germany's 4 trillion, so is this IMF claim based on current levels of immigration? Either way it is massive. Are you sure they were not talking about simply growth being higher?

 

[venny]

I do wonder whether Alton Towers would be in a better position to retain custom, offer a differentiator and fend off any bleed of custom to Universal, if they had continued with their adoption of quirky themes. By that, I’m thinking of the British idiosyncracy of the original Alton Towers Hotel, the upbeat chaotic theme of Splash Landings or Toyland Tours and its amazing puns.

Whilst I know American companies are perfectly capable of delivering at least some of those types of themes (Downtown Disney’s Adventurer’s Club, for example), Alton Towers could more naturally lean into that area. Rather than trying to compete with Universal on most recognisable IP or ride hardware, is there still potential that they could pivot to adopt that style as a USP? I somehow suspect they’re not bold enough to do so, but they must be starting to at least consider how they retain custom.

 

[Dave]

I do wonder whether Alton Towers would be in a better position to retain custom, offer a differentiator and fend off any bleed of custom to Universal, if they had continued with their adoption of quirky themes. By that, I’m thinking of the British idiosyncracy of the original Alton Towers Hotel, the upbeat chaotic theme of Splash Landings or Toyland Tours and its amazing puns.

Whilst I know American companies are perfectly capable of delivering at least some of those types of themes (Downtown Disney’s Adventurer’s Club, for example), Alton Towers could more naturally lean into that area. Rather than trying to compete with Universal on most recognisable IP or ride hardware, is there still potential that they could pivot to adopt that style as a USP? I somehow suspect they’re not bold enough to do so, but they must be starting to at least consider how they retain custom.

I’m not sure they are that bold either but as it stands it’s the one park that has resisted the crazy IP’s of Merlin. They have two IP’s which are to be fair very British (CBeebies and Walliams) even if one of them has been done very badly.

I hope they do resist the more mainstream IP’s though as it would be a better USP.