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Trump v. Harris - US election-a-polooza

Who do you think will win the US Election?


  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .
Anyone's game at this point. Don't forget the bizzare way states are weighted in the "collage" system.
(gotta go sleep now, sadly I'm working tomorrow)
 
If all the Democrat supporters have buggered off home with sadface, and the Republicans are hanging around smirking, the game is fully over.
We are just waiting for the clock to count down, and the votes to count up.
New planet fully required, Putin and Trump running this one.
Bent planet.
 
That's the problem with humanity. Sometimes people won't listen, and you have to just run with a bad idea to prove it's a bad idea.
 
What an absolutely awful way to wake up.

The only hope is that the next 4 years don’t result in irreversible damage and we don’t get some sort of system to fix future elections in favour of the Republicans.
 
Interestingly, it’s looking as though Trump is going to accomplish something that he didn’t even accomplish in 2016 and win the popular vote, with him currently leading over Harris by 4%.

Associated Press have now officially declared Pennsylvania as having been won by Trump, so I think we’ve now got an all-but-confirmed Trump victory…
 
My greatest concern with all of this is that we’ll be in a World War by the end of his tenure.

I’ve seen various political individuals, all of whom have a vested interest in Trump winning, parroting the line that ‘no wars were started during his term’ but surely the more relevant question is what would have happened had he been in power when those wars inevitably would have started anyway? Where would we be now if the Ukraine war had happened during Trump’s time in power?
 
One thing I hope is that some of the more extreme things Trump has come out with are just talk, like in 2016. He strikes me as someone who often opens his mouth before engaging his brain and says things for the sake of saying them. In the 2016 campaign, he said a lot of extreme things that didn’t come true.

Remember that huge Mexican wall that Trump claimed he would build in 2016, as one of his flagship policies? That never came to fruition, and ended up just being talk.

Hopefully his second term is similar.

Despite what some will inevitably say, I also think Donald Trump winning is more nuanced than “America couldn’t cope with a black woman” or similar. The US has been having a cost of living crisis, and the economy was supposedly very good when Trump was in power, so many Americans trust him on that front and think he will be better at bringing living costs down. I also feel that Kamala Harris was perhaps too closely tied to the unpopular incumbent Joe Biden; had the Democrats picked someone less closely linked, they may have done better.

And to put it simply, I think the man clearly speaks to people in a way that other politicians don’t. For all of his flaws, I think Trump is very good at appearing to make the voiceless heard and “stand up for the common man” so to speak. Rightly or wrongly, there’s often an accusation that typical politicians are too “elitist” and don’t understand the struggles of everyday people, so Donald Trump taps into this and tries to come across relatable and empathetic to people’s struggles. I think that him aiming to listen to the everyday person, for lack of a better term (or at least acting like he is), is what has made him so successful.
 
Remember that huge Mexican wall that Trump claimed he would build in 2016, as one of his flagship policies? That never came to fruition, and ended up just being talk
The issue is that the talk is what does the damage. A lot of people don't care about the logistics of deporting all the immigrants, but the fact he has said he will do it (no matter how unfeasible) is what causes the violence towards people who look like immigrants (both legal and illegal).

Same issue with Farage and the riots in the UK a few months ago, the rioters don't care that its the government being slow processing asylum claims that caused them to be housed in hotels, they just heard from someone that an asylum seeker killed someone, and the groundwork done by Farage was enough to make people think they could behave in that manner.

I would expect many legal immigrants in the US will be considering if it is still safe for them to stay there, let alone the illegal ones.
 
What a depressing world we live in.

Whole place is going further right. And looks like the current nonsense in Ukraine and Middle East is only going to develop further.

Most Americans would never accept a woman telling them what to do.
 
I remember watching the democrats celebrating Biden scoring the largest number of votes in history at the 2020 election and thinking they should be more concerned about the fact that Trump also beat the record. His support had grown, but with his incompetence on full display at the height of the pandemic probably pushed Bidens numbers higher.
Four years for people to forget how bad he was, combined with voter apathy by Bidens ‘business as usual’ approach and an uninspiring choice in Harris have collapsed their support and handed Trump the victory.
Looking ahead, it’s pretty clear that Trumpism has fully taken over the Republican Party, and there are plenty of well known candidates that would be happy to pick up the mantle. Democrats urgently need to wake up and realise that just putting the same old ideas into a new body isn’t going to cut it any more.
As it stands with some states left to declare, Trump is only 4 million votes off his 2020 score, while Harris is 17 million behind Biden. Hard to see this as anything other than Democrats loss rather than Republicans win.
Edit to insert some screenshots of a conversation I had after the capitol riot:
IMG_4612.jpegIMG_4613.jpeg
 
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I think there is some truth in it being the Democrats election to loose. The campaign mostly centred around Harris not being Trump. Few policies from Harris, who was drafted in at the 11th hour because the highly experienced president they installed for 2020 was himself parachuted in at a grand old age just to see Trump off.

The Democrats, and indeed sensible politicians all around the world, need to have an answer for populism. Trying to just keep the old world order alive by highlighting the fear and nonsense coming out of the mouths of populists just isn't good enough.

Trump's first term was not only dangerous, but was also a failure. The truth about it doesn't matter. Average voters in the western world sometimes don't care why, they just want something done about it. Although his core supporters are loud, many who would have voted for him in their heart of hearts know he doesn't have the answers. Many who voted for populists in the UK didn't think they had the answers either.

I firmly believe they are using their votes to send messages that they think the way of doing things needs to change. Just look at how easily Harris was able to pick apart Trump's ridiculousness in their debate, so much so that he dived out of doing another one. Starmer, Sholtz, Macron et al all have the capability of doing that as well.

I think the lesson here isn't that established politicians can just wait for populists to inevitably fail and then welcome the flock back to business as usual. That hasn't worked in America as they've chosen to go back to it. The UK and Spain in particular should heed these warnings.
 
I’m guessing the reason Trump has won this time around is because of the inflation that snuck its way into the global economy after COVID. People have seen the price rises and have kicked the incumbents out of office. Democrats know going forward that being establishment Dems will lose them elections. Hope this pushes them to be more radical next time. There are no figures like Joe Manchin left to oppose them with going through more radical reforms.

Trump’s policies are very much ideologically-based and not evidence-based at all. There will a Liz Truss style event at some point which makes the Republicans very unpopular. I really can’t wait for the inevitable implosion that’s about to go down because of how diverse Trump’s voter base is. It’s just a case of how bad is the collateral damage going to be in the meantime unfortunately. I really hope the rest of the West steps up to the role America is about to leave empty, with hopefully no more pussyfooting from the EU.

The big thing that can be taken away from this election is that neoliberalism is dead and buried.
 
One thing I hope is that some of the more extreme things Trump has come out with are just talk, like in 2016. He strikes me as someone who often opens his mouth before engaging his brain and says things for the sake of saying them. In the 2016 campaign, he said a lot of extreme things that didn’t come true.

Remember that huge Mexican wall that Trump claimed he would build in 2016, as one of his flagship policies? That never came to fruition, and ended up just being talk.

Hopefully his second term is similar.

The backstage political drive behind Trump is now known as 'Project 2025', and is being orchestrated by some of the most cruel and ideologically driven people in America. They will not let him flounder this time around. The world is going to change. I strongly, sadly believe that Ukraine and Palestine have a grimmer, more impossible future than ever.

As @Bert2theSpark observes, the Dems need to find a charismatic new leader and shake themselves out of their centrism to provide a progressive form of populism, or these horrors will continue ad infitum.
 
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Funny, I've always looked at politics the opposite way: It doesn't make any difference who the dancing monkey is, the unknown organ grinders never change.

Just in case anyone is getting too freaked out, just remember: It's only four years, and then he's gone for good. ;)
 
Funny, I've always looked at politics the opposite way: It doesn't make any difference who the dancing monkey is, the unknown organ grinders never change.

Just in case anyone is getting too freaked out, just remember: It's only four years, and then he's gone for good. ;)
But the smell of KFC in the Oval Office is eternal
 
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