Craig
TS Administrator
Yup they certainly need a magnificent night, I’m just failing to see the Tories doing anything in the next few weeks that turns the tide. Reform are eating into the Tory’s votes, and Labour’s Vote share seems to be relatively static at the moment.If we look to history, the only times in recent history where this seat has voted Labour were in 1997 and 2001, when Blair was at his absolute peak. The seat was Tory for years prior to 1997, quickly went Tory again when Blair lost popularity in 2005, and Mark Harper’s vote share only seems to have increased ever since. My prediction is that Labour will only win this seat if they have an absolutely spectacular night nationwide (i.e. a 1997-style landslide). If the result ends up being more marginal in Labour’s favour or if the Tories defy the odds and win, I think the seat will probably stay Tory.
In addition, public approval for Starmer seems to be rising, while Sunak’s is absolutely tanking. For a party who have tried to run this as a ”presidential” campaign on personality (however bizarre the reasoning for that was!), that’s not good news:
The last National Coal Board mine closed in 1965 in the Forest of Dean, long before Thatcher’s mine closures up in the north in the 80’s, so it’s not as heavily affected by the ”Thatcher effect” that we have up here. The Tories have been incredibly successful campaigning off the back of ”culture war” issues, almost completely mitigating that Thatcher effect for many of the deprived communities across the country. The problem is that they’ve now been in power and failed to resolve the issues they’ve so glady repeatedly shouted about in the past. They overpromised and severely under delivered. Reform have come along, shouted about it louder and made ”promises” they know they’ll never have to deliver, meaning the Tories lost the voters they’ve attracted. On top of that they’ve not been able to attract those voters with more centrist views back to the party. Topped off with a leader that’s severely disliked, it’s a perfect storm for electorial oblivion.On a side note, I find this seat’s consistent tendency to vote Tory quite peculiar. The Forest of Dean has a strong mining heritage, and I thought most mining areas were Labour through and through (or “Red Wall” Tory seats in 2019) after Margaret Thatcher decimated the mines? While the constituency is admittedly pretty rural, has some pretty affluent areas, and also leans considerably older than England as a whole, there are also some notable belts of deprivation locally, particularly within the Forest's larger ex-mining towns.