Universal GB - Archived Post Announcement Discussion

[Johnny_5]

Merlin have an effective monopoly in the UK. When you consider Thorpe, Chessington, Alton, Warwick Castle, then the Sealife Centres, Cadbury World, Legoland, the London Eye and etc etc, don’t expect them to take this lying down. IIRC they went legal, or at least threatened to, on the park in Kent about government infrastructure investment to support the park, its planning consents and other aspects they considered to be unfair subsidies. Which in itself is ironic considering their market share in the UK. I believe they will do everything they can to stop this. Including negative press, and divisive lobbying. I’d be very surprised if Merlin a) up their game in response (they run on a shoestring for maximum profit) and b) don't explore every possible option to prevent a threat to their monopoly in the UK.

 

[Benzin]

I know this is a contrary view. But I just don't buy the argument that this place will make other UK parks buck their ideas up in any major way.

Is there any evidence of this happening, anywhere? Efteling's response to DLP opening was to build this. Asterix did nothing. It was only decades later that both those parks started to seriously invest, but it doesn't seemingly have anything to do with DLP.

I basically think Merlin will be largely unaffected. There'll just be a realignment of the market where Alton Towers goes from being the premium product to being a mid-range product. I don't think this will really dent the Merlin parks as it's aiming at a different market.

Wasn't Parc Asterix itself the response to DLP?

 

[Mick]

I think the impact will be more nuanced than just ‘guests will desert Merlin and go to Universal’. For example, if Merlin continue as they are, with the odd addition and investment, a bit of a lottery if you’d have a good or bad day I think there’d still be a market similar to current levels, if not slightly improved.

But if for example they lose tech staff or other key personnel, they suffer operationally then this will have a knock on effect on their reputations and harming visitor numbers.

For my mind, ensuring the parks become operationally reliable and adding new bits here and there is far more important to Merlin than doubling/trebling their capital outlay on things that may become white elephants.

Take Towers for example, if they keep their 7/8 coaster offering, add flat-rides, some re-themes of areas (all stuff they’d be planning before Universal imo), but greatly improve their reliability, hours, food etc then it’s still a good park. The likes of Nemesis, Wicker-Man and Toxicator do not become bad rides just because someone else is offering something outstanding.

Merlin just need to focus on themselves.

 

[Josh555]

Because no Premier League football club have announced plans to rebuild their stadium in the weeks and months since that deal was announced.

It's like saying there hasn't been any stone circle builders demanding they get the same Heritage Site status from UNESCO as Stonehenge.

I wasn't aware that Merlin have announced plans to build any new theme parks recently either unless I'm missing something?

 

[Benjsh]

I'd imagine a lot of the hardcore Americans thoosies will make the trip over to experience it as well as many Europeans too. This should in turn benefit Merlin Parks. If people are travelling a long way then I think tagging on a trip to Towers or one of the SE Merlin parks is pretty likely.

PB are the ones I feel worried for most. It's probably too far away for them to benefit from it really.

 

[Dave]

I don’t think there is a risk of tech staff moving, people are not going to relocate from Staffordshire to Bedfordshire, universal won’t make the salaries that competitive. Towers issue is local competition from non-theme parks (it’s a transferable skill).

Asterix took time but it massively boosted its quality over time, Towers reacted to DLP, and you could argue so did EP as the quality of installations and the rate of expansion changed significantly in the early 90’s.

I don’t however, think Universal will be an extinction level event some are suggesting, it’s going to be far more expensive than most UK parks and it won’t add rides on a yearly basis as the park has a broader catchment area for its audience. Towers may see a loss of guests in year 1 and 2 but it won’t likely be sustained.

 

[Benjsh]

Because dinosaurs are cool.

My 2 year old has liked dinosaurs for a while already. Not like we directed her to them either. They just have an aura.

Yeah I completely get it. I quite like Dinosaurs too to be honest and I love the original JP films.

The Jurassic World ones not so much though. First one was watchable but the others were dross and I don't hold up much hope for the 4th installment either.

 

[Graeme]

I guess a percentage of the 8 million visitors a year will be international visitors. I would assume a lot of them would be “Theme Park Fans”

Whilst visiting, why not take the 1-2 hour journey to visit Merlin parks.

I would imagine that Merlin will see more international guests out of this investment but less annual pass holders/repeat yearly visitors.

It’s about time they had a kick up the backside. As mentioned above, the Merlin parks will just become a mid tier park for this country with Universal being top tier.

I’d also imagine that Universal will be far more expensive to visit but a far better product. It won’t appeal to everyone’s budget.

 

[Sam]

Obviously there can be no guarantees but in 1992 Alton Towers opened RMT & Haunted House, likely a direct response to Big Thunder & Phantom Manor.

That's a good point John, I basically forgot about that!

 

[Dobba]

I wasn't aware that Merlin have announced plans to build any new theme parks recently either unless I'm missing something?

Why are you arguing with me about a comparison you made?

 

[Benjsh]

I'm intrigued with how Disneyland Paris are going to respond. I know they have several things in progress right now but they have been in the planning for way longer than this Universal Park has been known about surely.

I do think it's time they added a major expansion to the main Castle Park in Paris. Long long overdue and this Universal news may actually be the tipping point for it.

 

[Josh555]

Why are you arguing with me about a comparison you made?

Because you are the person trying to discredit that comparison by suggesting it's not relevant on the basis of the fact that there have been no announcements of similar projects since the announcement, which also applies to this particular example, hence why I disagree with you.

It's not an argument in any case, if you think that Merlin are going to raise a legal challenge of some description then you're entitled to that view, I am just giving reasons as to why I disagree.

 

[Dobba]

Because you are the person trying to discredit that comparison by suggesting it's not relevant on the basis of the fact that there have been no announcements of similar projects since the announcement, which also applies to this particular example.

It's not an argument in any case, if you think that Merlin are going to raise a legal challenge of some description then you're entitled to that view, I am just giving reasons as to why I disagree.

Again, that's a point you made. That nobody has lodged a complaint in the same industry about not getting preferential treatment when building a similar project so why would it happen here.

You're arguing with yourself from a few hours ago.

 

[flyingguitar]

I know this is a contrary view. But I just don't buy the argument that this place will make other UK parks buck their ideas up in any major way.

Is there any evidence of this happening, anywhere? Efteling's response to DLP opening was to build this. Asterix did nothing. It was only decades later that both those parks started to seriously invest, but it doesn't seemingly have anything to do with DLP.

I basically think Merlin will be largely unaffected. There'll just be a realignment of the market where Alton Towers goes from being the premium product to being a mid-range product. I don't think this will really dent the Merlin parks as it's aiming at a different market.

I can see both arguments,

for AT less people may go, as they could save up for a while longer and go to universal because it probably would be a better experience, leading AT to have to improve their experience.

but there could be more people coming for theme parks but my question is how many are coming for theme parks vs coming for universal, DLP has done this well there are good connections to Paris so tourists can stay at or near Disney go to Disney for a few days then catch the metro into paris and go to tourists things. it could easily be the same for universal where tourists go to Bedfordshire for universal for a few days, then to london for a day for tourist activites on the train and leave, thorpe and chessington aren't that close to london city center and I question how much people would be willing to go to them.

Edit: they could catch the euro star and go to DLP (with a connection) from london and make it a full disney / universal experience with london and paris

your point about DLP isn't too good as DLP was a big flop for Disney, if I recall correctly they essentially mis judged the European market as the American market and made it full of America which Europeans weren't happy about, I think universal would probably do better at this (and the UK I think is more accepting of the American stuff)

I think it comes down to price, £150 per person per day, AT, thorpe and chessington will be fine as the cheaper alternatives for a fun day out but more competitive at like £60

 

[Josh555]

Again, that's a point you made. That nobody has lodged a complaint in the same industry about not getting preferential treatment when building a similar project so why would it happen here.

You're arguing with yourself from a few hours ago.

A football club does not have to literally announce that they are building a stadium prior to being able to raise objections as to the treatment that another football club is getting with a stadium that they are building, in fact it is highly likely that any such agreements would be in place before anything was announced as it's obviously key in deciding whether the project was viable (which is exactly the case with Universal GB). There are several football clubs in various stages of either building new stadiums or increasing the capacity of the one which they already have, Newcastle and Bournemouth to name two - neither of those clubs have, to my knowledge, mounted a legal challenge on the basis of infrastructure works for Old Trafford.

That is my point, if you disagree that's fine.

 

[Matt N]

One thing that concerns me slightly is that most of the comments under Starmer’s livestream on Twitter appear to be overwhelmingly negative…

 

[Josh555]

One thing that concerns me slightly is that most of the comments under Starmer’s livestream on Twitter appear to be overwhelmingly negative…

Says more about Twitter than anything else.

 

[Benjsh]

One thing that concerns me slightly is that most of the comments under Starmer’s livestream on Twitter appear to be overwhelmingly negative…

The right and far right hate him and attack every post he makes. Nothing to do with this project but more an attack on him.

In fact many of them will probably visit with their families I'd imagine.

 

[Bowser]

I'm intrigued with how Disneyland Paris are going to respond. I know they have several things in progress right now but they have been in the planning for way longer than this Universal Park has been known about surely.

I do think it's time they added a major expansion to the main Castle Park in Paris. Long long overdue and this Universal news may actually be the tipping point for it.

They’re contractually obligated to build a third park alongside the major ongoing projects you referenced so I can’t imagine this really influences their existing plans.

 

[Mike]

One thing that concerns me slightly is that most of the comments under Starmer’s livestream on Twitter appear to be overwhelmingly negative…

Don't read too much into that, particularly bearing in mind Twitter is increasingly leaning right-wing in terms of UK contributors - what matters most in terms of public support is those locally, and of everyone replying to the public consultation last year (which was *very* in-your-face locally including a mailshot in every door within Bedford Borough as well as all over the local press; essentially no-one can say they weren't given the option of contributing), 92% expressed overall positive sentiment towards the project. As such; if you extrapolate that up yes we're almost certainly going to get a few loud voices (8% of c. 200k isn't zero) but I suspect we're not going to see negative voices cause any real consequential delay to the overall timeframe.