[🌎 Universal GB] General Discussion

[Bert2theSpark]

How bad does the global security and peace situation have to get before investments like this get impacted?

It's not unforseable, if USA invade Greenland, that we effectively end up straight up engines of the USA alongside Europe, and that would likely come with sanctions and restrictions in trade. At some stage do Universal asses the risk and pause spending to see how this plays out before they commit to much?

I think one of the reasons Universal/Comcast are investing in this project is to diversify themselves away from the US. Comcast know they are still very much attached to the direction of the US market and want to move beyond their cable packaging, and much like Disney move their most profitable part of their portfolio to the theme parks.

Sky is effectively the European arm of the company, and I imagine would likely step in if they ever got cut off from overseas ownership. Europe has such a deep relationship with US companies that they are highly unlikely to reprimand the US at all because doing so would place them at such a large risk. The UK/EU won’t dare sanction China at the moment because of their reliance, so certainly can’t see it with the US. Europe’s main strategic threat is Russia, if Trump invaded Greenland, Europe would just be a bit awkward/embarrassed about it at worst.

 

[BSwiss]

It’s worth noting that the US remains a democracy, and often undergoes significant political and policy swings every four years.

If Universal hits the GB target date of 2031, the US will be 30ish months into the next presidential term, and only 18 months out from another election. With 6yr project plan underway, 4yr political swings don’t appear (to me, at least) make or break.

Additionally, Universal and other US brands are so ingrained in everyday life here that the perception is that they’re perhaps more (ahem) universal than US-specific.

 

[rob666]

I would guess that the risk to the park not actually happening is more economic based than the threat of Team America's:World Police.

If the economy goes "breasts up" on a large scale, the first to the wall are large leisure projects.

And we are of course due an economic bump, it is just the size of it that matters here.

A large crash would at least delay the park.


And it is worth noticing that despite being a democracy, Trump still has three whole years to crash the world economy...

 

[Benjsh]

And it is worth noticing that despite being a democracy, Trump still has three whole years to crash the world economy...

No Trump has 3 more years to re-write the constitution that allows him to serve a third term. It's coming.

 

[Dave]

No Trump has 3 more years to re-write the constitution that allows him to serve a third term. It's coming.

Technically he can’t do that, changing the constitution is quite tricky, but he won’t even try, he will use force to end the constitution.

Anyway off topic but EU will apply sanctions to the US if they invade Greenland, UK sadly is stuck between a rock and a hard place due to Brexit and the right wing of this country being desperate to be a vassal state of the USA.

I can see the disruption to the world order delaying this project but it will be because of the economic impact rather than sanctions. The main concern being that wealth is flowing away from the majority and into the minority which means people’s facility for leisure spending becomes lower.

 

[rob666]

No Trump has 3 more years to re-write the constitution that allows him to serve a third term. It's coming.

It really isn't.
Even large numbers of his own party know when enough is enough...especially after the events of the last couple of weeks.
Off topic again, sorry.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

How bad does the global security and peace situation have to get before investments like this get impacted?

It's not unforseable, if USA invade Greenland, that we effectively end up straight up engines of the USA alongside Europe, and that would likely come with sanctions and restrictions in trade. At some stage do Universal asses the risk and pause spending to see how this plays out before they commit to much?

It gets bad enough to stop the project only when the financial plumbing stops working.

Whilst the headlines about seizing Greenland are terrifyingly absurd (and yet, somehow, real), the trigger for pausing a project like Universal UK isn't necessarily the military action itself, but the economic reaction to it.

If the United States were to take military action against Denmark (a founding NATO member) to seize sovereign territory, Article 5 is triggered. Technically, the UK is then at war with the US. In reality, we probably wouldn't start firing missiles at New York, but the diplomatic and economic fallout would be instantaneous and catastrophic.

The project grinds to a halt not necessarily when the first shot is fired in the Arctic, but when the sanctions are signed. If the UK or EU were forced to apply sanctions to US corporations in retaliation, Comcast would effectively be paralysed. They wouldn't be able to legally move capital into the UK to pay contractors, and if the dollar were to crash or assets were frozen, the business case evaporates overnight. There is also the issue of reputational toxicity, though this hasn't been much of an issue for Middle Eastern states. If the US becomes a global pariah state, will the UK government really want to be seen cutting the ribbon on a massive American cultural export in Bedford? This is probably the point where the risk assessment turns from amber to do not touch.

However, there is a cynical counter argument... If the US is becoming increasingly belligerent and unstable, Comcast might view the UK (assuming we maintain our historic tradition of being the US's obedient lapdog and refuse to sanction them) as a safe haven for their capital. If the US economy is tanking due to war, having a revenue stream in GBP, in a country that refuses to sever ties, might be their lifeline.

Ultimately, companies like certainty. An invasion of Greenland destroys certainty. If that happens, Universal Great Britain is paused not because of the ethics, but because the global banking system likely freezes up in panic.

At that point, we probably have bigger problems than whether we get a Back to the Future ride.

 

[Blackrock]

The UK is never, ever going to sanction the US even if they invade Greenland which tbh I can’t see happening at all, he goes big (invasion) then he’ll meet in the middle and get something out of it, but invading imo is all rhetoric.

But say they did, article 5 if triggered doesn’t mean everyone has to instantly ago to war, countries can choose to get as involved as they want. And article 5 becomes meaningless anyway considering let’s face it the US is NATO and NATO would effectively be no more.

No one is going to go to war with the US over Greenland, that’s the simple fact and unfortunately I think people need to realise that the old consensus of ‘might is right’ is back and it’s here to stay. If we hadn’t been so weak and feeble minded ourselves since WW2 we’d have a bigger seat at the table, but we haven’t. The EU will talk like they always do and we’ll do the same and nothing will change.

This country is so intertwined with the US whether it’s our economies, militaries or intelligence services that’d it’d be basically impossible for us to do anything so we wouldn’t.

All hypotheticals of course because it’s not going to happen, he’ll settle for greater access to resources and a bigger American military presence on Greenland with more autonomy than what’s already there imo. But he’s certainly turning his attention towards the Americas and their own backyard which makes sense I suppose in a world where Russia/China are flexing their muscles. But it really should be the kick in the balls we need to sort our own stuff out and stop being such a lapdog and that means greater investment in our military.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

No one is going to go to war with the US over Greenland, that’s the simple fact and unfortunately I think people need to realise that the old consensus of ‘might is right’ is back and it’s here to stay. If we hadn’t been so weak and feeble minded ourselves since WW2 we’d have a bigger seat at the table, but we haven’t. The EU will talk like they always do and we’ll do the same and nothing will change.

I find the assertion that the UK has been "weak and feeble minded" since 1945, simply because we stopped painting the map pink and decided that international law might be a good idea, to be a rather depressing take on modern history. The return of "might is right" isn't a strategy for stability, it is a recipe for global chaos, which is historically terrible for the leisure industry.

But say they did, article 5 if triggered doesn’t mean everyone has to instantly ago to war, countries can choose to get as involved as they want. And article 5 becomes meaningless anyway considering let’s face it the US is NATO and NATO would effectively be no more.

You are technically correct that Article 5 does not mandate an immediate declaration of total war. It requires member states to take "such action as it deems necessary". However, if the US were to annex the sovereign territory of a founding NATO member and the rest of the alliance shrugged and said "well, they are quite big, aren't they?", NATO ceases to exist as a credible security pact that afternoon.

This country is so intertwined with the US whether it’s our economies, militaries or intelligence services that’d it’d be basically impossible for us to do anything so we wouldn’t.

You are absolutely right that the UK is economically and militarily intertwined with the US, to the point of dependency. We are unlikely to sanction them. We will likely issue a strongly worded letter while quietly ensuring the City of London remains open for business.

However, bringing this back on topic to the Universal project. The biggest threat here isn't the Royal Navy setting sail for Nuuk. It is volatility.

Comcast is investing billions based on a specific economic forecast. If the US starts annexing territory, global markets will panic. The dollar will swing wildly. Interest rates will spike as risk premiums increase. Supply chains, which Universal relies on for steel, tech, and rides, will fracture.

Even if the UK government remains a "faithful lapdog", the market will not be so forgiving. Uncertainty is the enemy of capital investment. If Comcast cannot accurately forecast the cost of construction materials or the value of the Pound in 2030 because the President is playing Risk with the Arctic Circle, they pause the project.

They don't need a war to stop digging. They just need a bad quarter on Wall Street caused by geopolitical jitters.

 

[Blackrock]

I find the assertion that the UK has been "weak and feeble minded" since 1945, simply because we stopped painting the map pink and decided that international law might be a good idea, to be a rather depressing take on modern history. The return of "might is right" isn't a strategy for stability, it is a recipe for global chaos, which is historically terrible for the leisure industry.

One last point then I’ll drop it because it’s off topic but when I say we’ve been weak and feeble minded I’m talking about the fact that since WW2 we allowed the US to push us around, weak politicians just settled for less than they should have.

Whether that’s allowing American conglomerates to purchase British business’s, them threatening to sink the pound, them pushing us out of the manhattan project even though a lot of the research was ours, ourselves disarming because we expected big daddy American to pick up the tab, completely screwing us over during WW2 with lend lease which only came after they’d already effectively emptied our pockets, I could go on.

I’m no American sycophant but really if I had to chose between them or China/Russia I know who I’m choosing.

But you’re right the markets would be screwed over as the uncertainty takes hold and Comcast very well could pause the project. But again, it’s all hypothetical.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

One last point then I’ll drop it because it’s off topic but when I say we’ve been weak and feeble minded I’m talking about the fact that since WW2 we allowed the US to push us around, weak politicians just settled for less than they should have.

Whether that’s allowing American conglomerates to purchase British business’s, them threatening to sink the pound, them pushing us out of the manhattan project even though a lot of the research was ours, ourselves disarming because we expected big daddy American to pick up the tab, completely screwing us over during WW2 with lend lease which only came after they’d already effectively emptied our pockets, I could go on.

I’m no American sycophant but really if I had to chose between them or China/Russia I know who I’m choosing.

But you’re right the markets would be screwed over as the uncertainty takes hold and Comcast very well could pause the project. But again, it’s all hypothetical.

There is a supreme irony in lamenting the historical weakness of British politicians for "allowing American conglomerates to purchase British businesses", whilst simultaneously cheering on Comcast, an American conglomerate, as they purchase a significant chunk of Bedfordshire to build a massive engine of American soft power cultural export.

If you are frustrated by the US hegemony and the erosion of British sovereignty since 1945, inviting the Minions to set up a permanent base in the Home Counties seems a strange way to protest. This project is the ultimate manifestation of the economic reality you decry. We are providing the land, the infrastructure, the state aid and the labour, whilst the intellectual property and the profits ultimately belong to Philadelphia.

However, putting aside the history lesson on the McMahon Act and the repayment of Lend-Lease (which we finally cleared in 2006, for the record), your admission that the markets would be "screwed over" is the pertinent point for this thread.

Theme parks are the canary in the coal mine for discretionary spending. If the geopolitical situation deteriorates to the point where the US is seizing territory in the Arctic, the global economy enters a period of extreme contraction. Oil prices spike, logistics chains break and inflation returns with a vengeance. In that scenario, nobody is flying to the UK to visit a theme park, and Comcast certainly isn't spending billions to build one.

We can argue about whether we should be a lapdog or a bulldog, but the reality is that Universal United Kingdom relies entirely on a stable, globalised world order. If that goes away, so does the park.

 

[flyingguitar]

Technically he can’t do that, changing the constitution is quite tricky, but he won’t even try, he will use force to end the constitution.

Anyway off topic but EU will apply sanctions to the US if they invade Greenland, UK sadly is stuck between a rock and a hard place due to Brexit and the right wing of this country being desperate to be a vassal state of the USA.

I can see the disruption to the world order delaying this project but it will be because of the economic impact rather than sanctions. The main concern being that wealth is flowing away from the majority and into the minority which means people’s facility for leisure spending becomes lower.

The thing is though like it or not, the us is becoming less and less of a democracy by the day with trump, he has violated the constitution multiple times, he has hundreds of judges who he put in charge who are loyal, most the supreme Court judges (who essentially decide is laws are legal, and who has the power to do certain things) are loyal to maga / trump.

If you want a bit of a glimps, the current situation has been following project 2025 to a T so check there.

I think this Could affect universal, however this could actually make them want to invest more, sounds backwards but this year tourism is down because of trump, and if he continues this it will probably continue. The UK government would be stupid to stop universal, even for sanctions (as it wouldn't impact that much of the US but could harm the UK tourism).

 

[Blackrock]

There is a supreme irony in lamenting the historical weakness of British politicians for "allowing American conglomerates to purchase British businesses", whilst simultaneously cheering on Comcast, an American conglomerate, as they purchase a significant chunk of Bedfordshire to build a massive engine of American soft power cultural export.

If you are frustrated by the US hegemony and the erosion of British sovereignty since 1945, inviting the Minions to set up a permanent base in the Home Counties seems a strange way to protest. This project is the ultimate manifestation of the economic reality you decry. We are providing the land, the infrastructure, the state aid and the labour, whilst the intellectual property and the profits ultimately belong to Philadelphia.

However, putting aside the history lesson on the McMahon Act and the repayment of Lend-Lease (which we finally cleared in 2006, for the record), your admission that the markets would be "screwed over" is the pertinent point for this thread.

Theme parks are the canary in the coal mine for discretionary spending. If the geopolitical situation deteriorates to the point where the US is seizing territory in the Arctic, the global economy enters a period of extreme contraction. Oil prices spike, logistics chains break and inflation returns with a vengeance. In that scenario, nobody is flying to the UK to visit a theme park, and Comcast certainly isn't spending billions to build one.

We can argue about whether we should be a lapdog or a bulldog, but the reality is that Universal United Kingdom relies entirely on a stable, globalised world order. If that goes away, so does the park.

You’re not wrong of course, there’s a huge irony in it but that’s the situation we and the rest of Europe find ourselves in. Unfortunately I wasn’t born in the 40s so moaning about it now is all I’m able to do.

 

[Benjsh]

*Back on topic*

Interestingly Alicia Stella's Parkstop podcast has just released it's new episode this morning and she's still very confident that Lord of the Rings is very much on the cards for this UK park.

Wooop! Wooop! Damn you Alicia for getting my hopes up again though. She's got a pretty good track record though it has to be said so who am i to question it.

 

[Blackrock]

*Back on topic*

Interestingly Alicia Stella's Parkstop podcast has just released it's new episode this morning and she's still very confident that Lord of the Rings is very much on the cards for this UK park.

Wooop! Wooop! Damn you Alicia for getting my hopes up again though. She's got a pretty good track record though it has to be said so who am i to question it.

There’s got to be something big where that what people think is a Shrek area is located on the artwork they released.

And with the government saying they need to have the capacity for 8 million people before it’s legally allowed to open it’s surely got to be very, very fleshed out from the get go.

 

[Bowser]

*Back on topic*

Interestingly Alicia Stella's Parkstop podcast has just released it's new episode this morning and she's still very confident that Lord of the Rings is very much on the cards for this UK park.

Wooop! Wooop! Damn you Alicia for getting my hopes up again though. She's got a pretty good track record though it has to be said so who am i to question it.

I think LOTR will happen. A gut feeling as it makes sense on too many levels not to happen, especially as the other big selling point attractions of Harry Potter and Nintendo can't really happen.

The likes of Jurassic Park are great and you have the Universal brand reputation regardless but i think they need at least one killer possibly exclusive attraction that people are going to want to visit from all over the world.

 

[dave___]

I think LOTR will happen. A gut feeling as it makes sense on too many levels not to happen, especially as the other big selling point attractions of Harry Potter and Nintendo can't really happen.

The likes of Jurassic Park are great and you have the Universal brand reputation regardless but i think they need at least one killer possibly exclusive attraction that people are going to want to visit from all over the world.

Still holding out hopes for Nintendo to agree to Hyrule.

At the same time fully anticipating a Fast and furious variant somewhere.

I imagine it will be difficult to try and predict which of their IPs will still be relevant in 5 years' time. Certainly not envious of the person having to make those decisions in case they make an utter hash of it.

 

[Bowser]

Still holding out hopes for Nintendo to agree to Hyrule.

At the same time fully anticipating a Fast and furious variant somewhere.

I imagine it will be difficult to try and predict which of their IPs will still be relevant in 5 years' time. Certainly not envious of the person having to make those decisions in case they make an utter hash of it.

Nintendo is arguably the safest long term but there's absolutely no way anywhere outside of Japan is getting Zelda first.

I'd say LOTR has much stronger longevity than FF. Presumably both do have projects in the pipeline though so that's somewhat of a guider.

 

[Blackrock]

Alicia said in her USGB video last week that Universal have green lit other Wicked films and effects told those who design the attractions to go out and do whatever they want with the IP. That will surely pop up somewhere even if it’s just a single attraction.

 

[dave___]

Nintendo is arguably the safest long term but there's absolutely no way anywhere outside of Japan is getting Zelda first.

I'd say LOTR has much stronger longevity than FF. Presumably both do have projects in the pipeline though so that's somewhat of a guider.

Sadly seems the Zelda film rights are owned by the wrong company too.

I've always been a bit iffy about LOTR being that Amazon have their grubby paws all over it nowadays.

Those ghastly Minions have another film out next year..