[🌎 Universal GB] Impact on the UK market

[RoyalFool]

@Matt.GC

But running the parks into the ground is a terrible long-term investment, look at Disney, their parks are not a bit of side-income, the parks are the financial backbone of the whole company. It proves if you bring people into a truly magical place, people want to spend money there, and take some of that magic back home with them too. Their biggest problem is too many people want to go, even when they increase ticket prices exponentially the crowds still come!

Any sensible investor would want to copy exactly what they are doing.

What Merlin have been doing is milking the UK due to no competition and having a virtual monopoly, and re-investing profits into other parks, namely opening new Legoland parks to compete against existing parks elsewhere in the world. From a UK perspective I hate what they've done to our parks, but when you see some of their parks outside the UK it makes you realise, oh, it's not that they can't do good theming or maintain anything, it's they just don't see the need to in the UK. In terms of cash flow, Merlin completely have the money and ability to defend their UK home ground against universal, but they'll have to stop the enshitification of our parks to subsidise their Asia and US projects.

 

[Hid]

Merlin seem to do much better when there is competition and also they own a lot of parks outside the UK, Heide Park is beautiful and has one of the best coasters in Germany in Colossos and also Flug der Damonen which are really well themed as is Krake. Heide Park has got to compete with Hansa Park, Phantasialand, Europa Park and Tripsdrill and many others.

There Legoland Parks are also great I still think Legolanr Windsor is the best purely from how many attractions it offers.

So maybe with this kick in competition like Universal might change things for the better. Hoping Gardaland is just as pretty as Heide Park

 

[SuperMuscleMan]

Merlin will continue to operate their theme parks as regional style parks. They'll be significantly cheaper than Universal, and that will mean the demand will still be there. But the added competition will hopefully lead to an increase in quality across the board.

Universal will be an international theme park, and so long as Merlin do keep investing in their parks then there are punters in the market for them to be successful.

I think there is potential for a greater impact on DLP than there is on most other UK parks, but a lot can change between now and the early 2030s.

Yes, I am sure Heimlichs Choo Choo train is in storage somewhere at DCA. That's the trump card. (Hearing that the new chair swing might be second hand from DCA)

 

[Maelstrom]

I am not so sure about that, I am not sure about DLP but in florida about 20% of visitors at Disney are from the UK, it is a big part of those parks.

I am not saying that all of the traffic will dry up, but there is a very large demand for that style of parks from the UK, consider that 20% won't include the people who may be unable to afford the multiple grand it costs to travel to America as a family, but a couple hundred quid may be more possible.


I think for merlin they will probably:
Continue improving AT areas (they have done it was FV, the curse, etc and they need to continue around the park bringing up the qualities of the areas such as DF, TWODW and X sector)

Install a couple new rides at Thorpe, from my perspective they want Thorpe to have a very unique and "thrill" line up possibly replacing rumba or the island behind swarm (I would like that, it could connect stealth and swarms rarther than having to walk all the way arround tidal wave) I would imagine this may be 1 of 2 things, 1) a thrill coaster (RMC, Imtamin blitz etc) trying to target the thrill marked, or 2) a family thrill, (a good intamin multi dimension, or something similar to wickerman??) trying to expand the line up to fit more of the family (I think this would be the best choice) I think the park could do with some improvement here and there but most of it is in a reasonable place.

Chessington: finish project play and refresh, they are in a good position I would guess they could then look at re-doing one of the areas (adventure point, or the land of the tigers maybe)

The uk only make up 3-4% not 20% of vistors to orlando and WDW/Universal,

 

[AT86]

The uk only make up 3-4% not 20% of vistors to orlando and WDW/Universal,

Came here to say this.

The numbers fluctuate and the pandemic has messed with things but it is c1million UK visitors going to Orlando each year out of a total of 74 million visitors. So 1.3%, not 20%.

Link

Data for DLP is a little out of date, but as of 2016, 17% of visitors were from the UK, so around 2million visitors a year.

Link

 

[Matt N]

@Matt.GC

But running the parks into the ground is a terrible long-term investment, look at Disney, their parks are not a bit of side-income, the parks are the financial backbone of the whole company. It proves if you bring people into a truly magical place, people want to spend money there, and take some of that magic back home with them too. Their biggest problem is too many people want to go, even when they increase ticket prices exponentially the crowds still come!

Any sensible investor would want to copy exactly what they are doing.

What Merlin have been doing is milking the UK due to no competition and having a virtual monopoly, and re-investing profits into other parks, namely opening new Legoland parks to compete against existing parks elsewhere in the world. From a UK perspective I hate what they've done to our parks, but when you see some of their parks outside the UK it makes you realise, oh, it's not that they can't do good theming or maintain anything, it's they just don't see the need to in the UK. In terms of cash flow, Merlin completely have the money and ability to defend their UK home ground against universal, but they'll have to stop the enshitification of our parks to subsidise their Asia and US projects.

Being cheaper and running the parks into the ground do not necessarily have to go hand in hand.

Contrary to many in this thread, my view is that Merlin would be best served by operating at a cheaper price point in a post-Universal market. However, that is on the proviso that they aim to offer good value for money in this price point.

If they can do that, I think that they can legitimately have an upper hand over Universal in terms of price. Many can’t or won’t pay Universal’s prices, and while some will say “instead of an MAP, people will just buy day tickets to Universal”, a whole year of unlimited attraction visits is quite a different proposition to 1 theme park day, and certainly an awful lot more bang for your buck. That bang for buck means a lot; we’re all searching for the best bang for our buck, and you have to admit that the MAP offers a lot of it.

Price is a legitimate selling point, and I think Merlin could carve themselves a wonderful niche in the market by providing that “major park” experience at a considerably cheaper price point than Universal offers.

 

[BSwiss]

When I try to at least convince them to give DLRP a try, it's a short flight away! I just get the usual "I heard eurodisney was disappointing.." like they had some mild interest back when it first opened, heard it wasn't great, then just tuned out for the last 20 years.

For this reason, I expect a swathe of PR type pieces in the raggier end of the press finding any conceivable angle to diminish Universal’s value to visitors.

‘Independent’ publications and research groups will be commissioned to lightly peruse publicly available records and pull out any metrics that show Universal GB to be performing below the existing UK parks, leading to a load of headlines like:

“Much-loved family park still boasts 3x the attractions of £100-a-visit Universal”

“We reveal the theme parks with the longest queues (and it’s NOT good news for Universal)”

They’ll be most likely paired with new attractions for Chess and TP that serve as a sales angle when their PR person is approached for a supporting quote to the above stories.

If the public starts to harbour even the smallest concern about an element of Universal, the competition will massively play on this. Cost, queue times, limited number of opening day attractions, infrastructure, etc., any of these will be used to slightly darken Universal’s reputation amongst the casuals.

I’m not worried for Universal, however. Presuming it goes ahead, it’s hard to see it failing. But a little strategic brinksmanship and naughty press collabs can lead to marginal gains in the MAP salesroom.

 

[Tim]

I've spotted an interesting trend the last few days watching vloggers that have headed out to Florida to experience Epic Universe for the first time. A lot of them have stuck around for a few days after, but rather than going to the other Universal parks as you might expect they've mostly got a few days in at Disney.
Will this trend continue with the average visitor once the park fully opens? Hard to say.

Now the situation in the UK is very different because their isn't a choice of other world class parks just down the road. But it shows that people won't necessarily just visit Universal then head back home.

Regarding the other UK parks I think if Universal opened today they'd be in a lot of trouble. But they have at least 6 years to reposition themselves. As others have said if they shift to become the budget friendly option (not cheap, but a balanced middle ground) they'll be just fine. There's plenty of examples of places like Parc Asterix and Busch Gardens that have thrived existing alongside other much bigger attractions. The key is to ensure these parks have a unique selling point. Universal won't be for everyone. They specialise in big name IPs. This is where Alton Towers has an advantage. It's mostly stayed IP free and the place has a character that is unique. It's why the park remains a globally talked about attraction. If they lean into this there's no reason Alton specifically couldn't become what Asterix is to DLP.

 

[flyingguitar]

The numbers fluctuate and the pandemic has messed with things but it is c1million UK visitors going to Orlando each year out of a total of 74 million visitors. So 1.3%, not 20%.

realised I mis-read the data, it is 20% of the forgen tourists.

still it is around 1.8 million people per year which when you consider the cost of getting there is a ton of people from the UK, I would argue that there are plenty of these 1.8million only being able to go once, or only going ever x years meaning there may be much more in the UK who would be willing to go to a universal park.


I would argue that universal UK could end up more like universal japan, where a majority of their visitors are from japan (in 2017, it apparently only had 2million forgen visitors compared to the attendence it isn't that much of the attendance

 

[Bowser]

still it is around 1.8 million people per year which when you consider the cost of getting there is a ton of people from the UK, I would argue that there are plenty of these 1.8million only being able to go once, or only going ever x years meaning there may be much more in the UK who would be willing to go to a universal park.

It’s an interesting number because it’s essentially the same amount of people who visit the UK parks each year.

I’m not sure how that number is reached considering a good amount of visitors attend multiple days but on the face of it as you say that suggests there’s a massive untapped market in the UK of people who are priced out by travel but would be willing and able to visit domestically.

 

[Blackrock]

I've spotted an interesting trend the last few days watching vloggers that have headed out to Florida to experience Epic Universe for the first time. A lot of them have stuck around for a few days after, but rather than going to the other Universal parks as you might expect they've mostly got a few days in at Disney.
Will this trend continue with the average visitor once the park fully opens? Hard to say.

Now the situation in the UK is very different because their isn't a choice of other world class parks just down the road. But it shows that people won't necessarily just visit Universal then head back home.

Regarding the other UK parks I think if Universal opened today they'd be in a lot of trouble. But they have at least 6 years to reposition themselves. As others have said if they shift to become the budget friendly option (not cheap, but a balanced middle ground) they'll be just fine. There's plenty of examples of places like Parc Asterix and Busch Gardens that have thrived existing alongside other much bigger attractions. The key is to ensure these parks have a unique selling point. Universal won't be for everyone. They specialise in big name IPs. This is where Alton Towers has an advantage. It's mostly stayed IP free and the place has a character that is unique. It's why the park remains a globally talked about attraction. If they lean into this there's no reason Alton specifically couldn't become what Asterix is to DLP.

Imo Alton Towers is the jewel in Merlin’s crown and they need to capitalise on it and give it the respect it deserves.

Yes it’s a pain to get to but it’s not an awful drive and to someone outside the country it’s extremely picturesque, the same goes for the park itself and its setting.

Thorpe Park is ten a penny in my mind, if there’s one i’d sell first that would be the one.

 

[Bowser]

Imo Alton Towers is the jewel in Merlin’s crown and they need to capitalise on it and give it the respect it deserves.

Yes it’s a pain to get to but it’s not an awful drive and to someone outside the country it’s extremely picturesque, the same goes for the park itself and its setting.

Thorpe Park is ten a penny in my mind, if there’s one i’d sell first that would be the one.

My instinct would suggest the vast majority of international visitors to London/Universal won't be hiring a car so if another theme park isn't accessible by public transport it's not going to be on the agenda.

Thorpe Park has several big selling points in "tallest coaster" and easy access.

Chessington will have Minecraft.

Legoland is Legoland.

Alton Towers is an overnight stay via public transport. Beyond hardcore enthusiasts, who really is going to a major city (eg Orlando and Paris) to visit a Universal or Disney and factoring in such a trek to a provincial theme park?

The examples of Asterix and Busch are considerably closer and more accessible to the main attractions.

Also as i've said previously, Orlando is an anomaly because it's a destination purely for theme parks from a tourist perception whereas London and the UK most certainly are not.

 

[SuperMuscleMan]

Imo Alton Towers is the jewel in Merlin’s crown and they need to capitalise on it and give it the respect it deserves.

Yes it’s a pain to get to but it’s not an awful drive and to someone outside the country it’s extremely picturesque, the same goes for the park itself and its setting.

Thorpe Park is ten a penny in my mind, if there’s one i’d sell first that would be the one.

Alton maybe pretty but they don't capitalise on it! With shocking open hours and dated infrastructure. Thorpe park is special too, it's highly themed in areas and doesn't look like the dump that the back end of Alton does with so many dead areas and poor IP choices. Amity is one of the better themed areas of the UK and the plaza around colossus is crafted beautifully.

Wickerman is ok but it's just a massive of wood and boarding qué lines. All the parks can thrive if they modernise and keep investing.

I believe it's DLP that will suffer if they don't invest majorly.

 

[Bowser]

I believe it's DLP that will suffer if they don't invest majorly.

I think DLP will look like a completely different place by the time Universal is open. The Studio/Adventure park will have completely transformed by that point.

Of course the Castle park will likely be much the same but it's still beautiful.

Another advantage DLP will have is there is much much more to do. We're only going off the Universal concept atm but if accurate whilst it undoubtedly will be high quality, the content itself seems quite limited and it will be a one day park initially.

 

[Dave]

There are a lot of wild takes out there at the moment, let’s get a few things clear.

Thorpe and Chessington will get secondary spend.

The idea that these will get secondary spend from Universal to any significant degree is laughable, they are not easily accessible from Universal without a car. In my many visits to Asterix I rarely heard anyone other than French people at the park, yes they get some international visits but I would guess very little due to DLP.

London will get secondary spend.

All Merlin Parks are Doomed

Universal will be aiming for international guests and UK visits every now and then. As with every other UK park Merlins focus will continue to be the domestic market. The idea Merlin will allow Towers, Chessington or Thorpe to fail is laughable.

There is a wide range of options to achieve this…..

All Merlin Parks will have to up their game massively

I suspect there will be some drive to boost the offering, we may see the capital investments improve (to be fair they have already started to improve a bit). I’m less sure the F&B will improve but we will have to wait and see.

If Merlin were sensible they will boost their quality though and other parks with local competition do. Fact is Merlin set the standard in the UK at the moment, Universal will take that mantle.

The only park that will be ok is the messiah (Paultons).

As above Paultons will continue to push their local regional visitation. It’s not the messiah it’s just a nice, passionate local theme park.

In summary, Merlin will want to limit exposure to Risky spending but they will also be mindful of ensuring they don’t lose audience share after the first year of Universal opening (I suspect all parks will lose audience share in year one or Universal no matter what they do due to the novelty factor).

We won’t know the exact impact until we start to see the parks respond. They have 6-7 years to get ready and I suspect they already have been working on plans since the rumours started.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

The only park that will be ok is the messiah (Paultons).

Lawrence Mancey is not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy...

...who tells fibs at his events.

 

[Hid]

There are a lot of wild takes out there at the moment, let’s get a few things clear.

Thorpe and Chessington will get secondary spend.

The idea that these will get secondary spend from Universal to any significant degree is laughable, they are not easily accessible from Universal without a car. In my many visits to Asterix I rarely heard anyone other than French people at the park, yes they get some international visits but I would guess very little due to DLP.

London will get secondary spend.

All Merlin Parks are Doomed

Universal will be aiming for international guests and UK visits every now and then. As with every other UK park Merlins focus will continue to be the domestic market. The idea Merlin will allow Towers, Chessington or Thorpe to fail is laughable.

There is a wide range of options to achieve this…..

All Merlin Parks will have to up their game massively

I suspect there will be some drive to boost the offering, we may see the capital investments improve (to be fair they have already started to improve a bit). I’m less sure the F&B will improve but we will have to wait and see.

If Merlin were sensible they will boost their quality though and other parks with local competition do. Fact is Merlin set the standard in the UK at the moment, Universal will take that mantle.

The only park that will be ok is the messiah (Paultons).

As above Paultons will continue to push their local regional visitation. It’s not the messiah it’s just a nice, passionate local theme park.

In summary, Merlin will want to limit exposure to Risky spending but they will also be mindful of ensuring they don’t lose audience share after the first year of Universal opening (I suspect all parks will lose audience share in year one or Universal no matter what they do due to the novelty factor).

We won’t know the exact impact until we start to see the parks respond. They have 6-7 years to get ready and I suspect they already have been working on plans since the rumours started.

I reckon Merlin Parks, Pleasure Beach, Paultons and Gullivers will improve. Looping Group Parks may improve with ops and new investments (Hoping something happens with Pirate Adventure).

Fantasy Island has benefit being near Skegness which is a popular tourist destination

Most Parks will be fine its the smaller ones I am more concerned about in particular Wicksteed which is not far from Universal.

 

[Matt N]

I do feel that the smaller parks are actually less at risk than the Merlin parks are.

Unlike the Merlin properties, they are already smaller fish in the pond that is the UK theme park industry, so a change in big fish is unlikely to have much impact on them, I feel. Many of the smaller parks are also popular out of circumstance (e.g. Pleasurewood Hills serves holidaymakers to Great Yarmouth, Fantasy Island serves holidaymakers to Skegness) as opposed to being destination parks in their own right, which I feel may shield them from the impact of Universal. A family that holidays in, say, Great Yarmouth for a week is unlikely to replace this with a trip to Universal.

I do, however, feel that contrary to what some say, Paultons is not uniquely protected from risk compared to other UK parks. Any lessened risk Paultons has is caused more by what I wrote above than anything specific about Paultons itself, in my view.

 

[Dave]

As an aside In many ways I do wonder if part of the reason for delaying project horizon was due to Universal rumours. Not that they will cancel it and start to mothball the parks, just that if they are now having to compete with Universal they might have decided whatever was planned was not good enough in the new climate.

I have no evidence for it, just a thought.

 

[Hid]

As an aside In many ways I do wonder if part of the reason for delaying project horizon was due to Universal rumours. Not that they will cancel it and start to mothball the parks, just that if they are now having to compete with Universal they might have decided whatever was planned was not good enough in the new climate.

I have no evidence for it, just a thought.

I reckon getting the entire area up to code around Horizon like Wodw and Dungeons also may be a factor. That area has potential to be the best in the park.

Especially with Universal on the way.