2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[Matt.GC]

That’s interesting… I thought George Galloway was an independent MP for some reason.

In that case, would I be right in saying that it’s akin to a party of the far left wing of the Labour Party, and those who are/were strong allies of Jeremy Corbyn?

George Galloway is kind of to the left what Farage is to the right. In fact, they stood on a platform together over Brexit. The hard left hate the EU as much as the hard right. He used to be bezzies with Corbyn when they sat as Labour MP's together, and was disappointed that his old pal ditched his long running Brexit stance during the campaign. That was an interesting time actually, he had a radio show at the time and he had Farage and Reece-Mogg on there quite a bit. You'd be surprised how much the fringes agree on actually when they get together. Similar stance on the EU, similar conspiracy theories, loads of so say "anti-establishment" retoric, and criticism of "the mainstream media" etc. He has even supported some things Trump has said.

He's stanchly anti-israel, anti-zionist, pro-russia (when Talk Radio binned him off, he went to RT where he declared they were never going to invade Ukraine), and he believes the west is too cold towards China, although he is critical of the anti-democratic nature of both regimes. He has repeated claims made by Putin (who he says he doesn't like) that he thinks the Ukrainian government has links to Nazism, and are therefore a legitimate and genuine threat to Russia.

He's heavily socialist, pro-big state, high taxes, in favour of widespread nationalisation and more powers for trade unions. He has declared the 1960's as his favourite decade in the UK, describing it as a "a wonderful time". He hates Tony Blair (who kicked him out of Labour) as much as he does Thatcher and Rupert Murdoch. He released a documentary about Blair where he accused him of war crimes. He has successfully sued for libel around accusations about his relationship with Sadam Hussain (Galloway claims he was referring to the Iraqi people when it appeared he was praising Sadam) and anti-Semitism and other racism claims (where he claims he is anti-racism, and points to the amount of times he has called the holocaust the biggest crime in human history, and his destruction of Tommy Robinson in an interview he did a number of years ago). Workers Party is the second party he has founded, the other being Respect.

He's been married 4 times and has 6 children. Despite his age one of those children is only 7 and he believes we don't have enough children as a nation. He claims to wear his signature hat after he was attacked and injured in the street in 2014 for his views on Israel. He's very well read and highly educated. He's a great orator, uses a lot of metaphors, and is renowned for shouting over and verbally bullying people he disagrees with in "debate".

Oh, and he pretended to be a cat in Celebrity Big Brother.

Very interesting man. Still very active online with his shows The Mother of all Talk Shows (TMOATS) and Sputnik. Loads of old stuff about as well. Worth a listening to some to understand the man.

 

[rob666]

He is a dangerous self centred psychopath who would sell his own grandmothers privates to the devil if he thought it would help him get a real seat in a general election.
By election running twat of the lowest order, uses race and racism to charm minorities into believing he is on their side...and divides the labour party wherever he goes...completely.
Then moves on to a fresh set of mugs for the next by election when he gets kicked out...again.
He started lying about his age in the seventies...says a lot.
He has danced around the edges of many scandals...has repeatedly denied where he got certain piles of money from, and is happy to stand next to any high ranking leader or politician if it gets him in the papers.
Absolute untrustwothy twat of the highest order, in my humble opinion,.
Other than that, lovely bloke...

 

[Jonathan]

He is a dangerous self centred psychopath who would sell his own grandmothers privates to the devil if he thought it would help him get a real seat in a general election.
By election running twat of the lowest order, uses race and racism to charm minorities into believing he is on their side...and divides the labour party wherever he goes...completely.
Then moves on to a fresh set of mugs for the next by election when he gets kicked out...again.
He started lying about his age in the seventies...says a lot.
He has danced around the edges of many scandals...has repeatedly denied where he got certain piles of money from, and is happy to stand next to any high ranking leader or politician if it gets him in the papers.
Absolute untrustwothy twat of the highest order, in my humble opinion,.
Other than that, lovely bloke...

Go on, Rob. Tell us how you really feel about him...

 

[rob666]

I do not like politicians who ride a ship of their own convenience...what shall we call our party this week then.
Why people fall for it is what gets me.
If he was my cat, he would have had his nuts removed long ago, and vitrified into little earrings for the wife...

 

[Matt N]

You'd be surprised how much the fringes agree on actually when they get together. Similar stance on the EU, similar conspiracy theories, loads of so say "anti-establishment" retoric, and criticism of "the mainstream media" etc. He has even supported some things Trump has said.

I find it interesting how you say that both far-right and far-left fringes agree on more things than you’d expect, because it would line up with something I’ve often heard said about political leaning being a circle rather than a line. By this, it’s meant that you only go so far left before you actually end up on the right.

One policy I was thinking about was Sunak’s recent announcement of national service, which allegedly functioned as bait for the far-right vote to stop them voting Reform. This may have been put in the Conservative manifesto to appeal to the far-right, but I’d argue that there’s something quite far-left about national service. The whole principle of it is the state interfering by forcing young people to do something and “comply” with state-enforced rules, unite behind a common national goal and all do the same thing as equals. I don’t know about you, but to me, there’s something that sounds very far-left, almost communist in fact, about national service when you describe it like that. I thought the far-right were typically more interested in libertarianism and low-state interference?

 

[rob666]

You are thinking it all through nicely grasshopper...
Keep it up.

Back in the day, Mr Wise Owl taught us Government, Economic and Politics.
Fantastic guy, ex banker, supercool, knew his stuff...especially off curriculum.
Three separate o level subjects, but with 60% common core, so easy extra o levels to pick up in the sixth from.

So three times I was given the same words...as well as "insurance is betting that you are going to lose...be careful how much you gamble , if you can't afford it."

Then the next subject, the following year...
Politics...macro style
"Hard left and hard right swing out so far, they meet up around the other side of the world, and twist together, spinning the rest of us all in circles."
Never heard global wide scale politics explained better.
His comment on the middle east, back in the seventies...
"Been killing each other over the same bit of land for a thousand years, everybody knows each side owns it, every one knows each side is completely right, we can all agree on that...
Won't stop a thing, won't change a thing, but the war machine must still make money, as civilisation completely depends on it".
His argument...
If we didn't have wars, the economy would struggle, very much so, so the west tends to make sure there are usually half a dozen going on elsewhere, just to keep our economy rolling.

Some countries use conscription to make sure the neets find something constructive to do, quickly.
Spudbashing if you don't.

Getting back to coasters, you could call military spending a bit like fasttrack...an extra income generator within the economy, a bit of a mucky profit creator in the darkest depths.

 

[Dobba]

I find it interesting how you say that both far-right and far-left fringes agree on more things than you’d expect, because it would line up with something I’ve often heard said about political leaning being a circle rather than a line. By this, it’s meant that you only go so far left before you actually end up on the right.

One policy I was thinking about was Sunak’s recent announcement of national service, which allegedly functioned as bait for the far-right vote to stop them voting Reform. This may have been put in the Conservative manifesto to appeal to the far-right, but I’d argue that there’s something quite far-left about national service. The whole principle of it is the state interfering by forcing young people to do something and “comply” with state-enforced rules, unite behind a common national goal and all do the same thing as equals. I don’t know about you, but to me, there’s something that sounds very far-left, almost communist in fact, about national service when you describe it like that. I thought the far-right were typically more interested in libertarianism and low-state interference?

The far left and far right also celebrate birthdays.

I can't confirm it but it's been said that both groups in this country like cups of tea.

 

[rob666]

But the red tea of the communist countries is of a far higher standard...cheaper, stronger and full of stimulation.

Another of those political funnies that was thrown out of that socialist centre... The World Service...in the middle of the night, painkiller time.

Perfume.
The posh stuff.
Starting around a hundred quid a bottle.
Often a lot more.
My good lady drinks the stuff I'm sure, the volumes she gets through.
A lot of the workers that collect the raw materials earn around a dollar a day.
The companies make millions off their slave labour, but we don't call it that any more.
There is an old blues song a century old that talks of such pay rates.
A hundred years of progress.
But global progress creates first world profits.
Monoculture makes third world people starve.

The Global Story...BBC sounds.


Oh my ...I'be been podcasted...all sneaky.
It was just the radio guv...

And the railroad song by the Notting Hillbillies, based on a nursery rhyme.

The far left and far right also celebrate birthdays.

I can't confirm it but it's been said that both groups in this country like cups of tea.

Some counties in China banned birthday celebrations in 2020 or 2021.
Unworthy capitalist construct.
Indy source.
Knew I read it somewhere.
I read some crap me.

 

[Matt.GC]

I find it interesting how you say that both far-right and far-left fringes agree on more things than you’d expect, because it would line up with something I’ve often heard said about political leaning being a circle rather than a line. By this, it’s meant that you only go so far left before you actually end up on the right.

One policy I was thinking about was Sunak’s recent announcement of national service, which allegedly functioned as bait for the far-right vote to stop them voting Reform. This may have been put in the Conservative manifesto to appeal to the far-right, but I’d argue that there’s something quite far-left about national service. The whole principle of it is the state interfering by forcing young people to do something and “comply” with state-enforced rules, unite behind a common national goal and all do the same thing as equals. I don’t know about you, but to me, there’s something that sounds very far-left, almost communist in fact, about national service when you describe it like that. I thought the far-right were typically more interested in libertarianism and low-state interference?

Sometimes, 2 sides of the same coin, but not that simple. Having known and sought the views of people who stand on both fringes, I've found it fascinating for a few years now. Started researching it when the Western world started to go crazy, Trump's election, rise of the far right in many European countries (including the destruction of the established political order in France), Brexit, the rise of the SNP in Scotland, Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, Boris Johnson, the economic success of state controlled capitalism in China under the banner of "communism".

It's a complex issue, far too complex to discuss in full here, but in a nutshell there seems to be an underlying primary objective, be it the natural environment, socialism, racism, nationalism, personal ambitions, revolution, and other things like that. Populism is then the vehicle to get buy in. At the extremes, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union were masters of this.

The SNP (used to be nicknamed the "Tartain Tories") adopt centre left policies that are popular with the public, knowing that undeliverables can be blamed on Westminster, to further the cause of nationalism. Britain First using child and animal abuse to sell their cause of racism. Donald Trump pretending that Detroit car workers can get their jobs back so that he can feed his narcissism by holding the highest office in the world. Boris Johnson's last minute dash to support Brexit, that he didn't really believe in so that he could fulfil his own personal ambitions, Jeremy Corbyn similarly ditching his support for Brexit so he could sell old school socialism to younger people.

Sometimes the objective is pretty obvious, but it's easy to get caught up in trying to define individuals and parties on a traditional left-right spectrum which I think is redundant and has been for decades. Thatcher was right wing a libertarian right? Maybe not, very globailist and the most authoritarian PM in my lifetime. Why is there more nationalisation in the Reform manifesto than there likely will be in the Labour one? Why is China using all the controls of communism to beat the west at their own game of capitalism?

It's as old as time, but you'd be surprised how many people I find are not aware of what their own views are, and get easily disillusioned or just spout things (myself included a few years ago) that they think they believe in because they've identified with a political allegiance at some point, got disillusioned and either lost all hope or sought for an alternative cause to believe in.

A lot of listening to Enoch Powell, Marine Le Pen, George Galloway, Ben Shapiro, Tony Benn, Nigel Farage, Yanis Varoufakis, Jacob Reece-Mogg etc happened on very long journeys when I was field based in my mid 30's and I found it all quite enlightening. I can easily see why, in a post 2008 world with social media and all it's algorithms to look for answers and get sucked into rabbit holes. But the plus side is there's access to more stuff out there than there ever has been before. There's no such thing as a political vehicle/movement that can be categorised completely and that you can agree with 100%, and that's why I find "I won't be voting, they're all the same" arguments so frustrating, or when I hear views that might as well be taken from a script of whatever political party a person allies themselves with. Same for people you don't agree with generally, it doesn't mean that you'll disagree with them completely, it just might mean that the underlying cause is shaping their arguments, and not the other way round.

Worth a listen though Matt if you ever find yourself on long journeys on your own. Also a lot of interesting scholarly articles and podcasts about it all.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

I thought the far-right were typically more interested in libertarianism and low-state interference?

Ah, now you're conflating the ALT-right with the far-right. The alt-right are interested in libertarianism and low-state interference unless it's preventing a woman from choosing what to do with her own body with abortions; legislating which gender you must assign with, no matter how differently you feel; saying who you can and can't get married to; preventing you, or anyone else, from freely crossing state borders; preventing free trade with other nations; demanding longer and harsher criminal sentencing; lucrative state contracts for private enterprise; increased and deregulated surveillance to protect private property... I could go on.

Sidestepping Godwin's law for a moment, a good illustration of far-right and far-left ideologies pretty much coming full circle, can be seen when you compare Nazi Germany with Soviet Russia.

An easy way of breaking it down. Far-right, the people must provide for the good of state. Far-left, the state must provide for the good of people.

 

[Dobba]

Iain Dale has left his LBC show to partake in his other hobby, wrestling pensioners to the ground.

OK his other, other hobby, running for parliament for the Tories. This time he'll be doing it in his beloved hometown of Tunbridge Wells. As Iain himself put it in 2022, “I’ve lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will, in that my partner comes from Tunbridge Wells…I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else”

 

[Tom]

Unfortunately, while I doubt it will be quite that extreme (but always a chance of a wild gift from FPTP), a recent mega poll suggests the Conservative Party could be wiped out to circa 70 seats.

By that measure they are in danger of being knocked into third place and the Liberal Democrats becoming the official opposition. Even if they don't quite fall that far, maybe a few from Labour could be convinced to defect to the Lib Dems once parliament sits?

Tories heading for wipeout as new mega-poll suggests they could win just 66 seats

Cabinet ministers, including the deputy prime minister, predicted to lose in Labour landslide

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Matt N]

I could be wrong, but I think all of these polls predicting a Labour landslide are very premature.

To me, it doesn't seem as though Starmer has had an overly strong start to the campaign. Labour still seems to lack strong policies and doesn't appear to be saying much other than "change", and the whole fracas with Diane Abbott earlier in the week seems to have undermined Labour a bit and still showcases quite a divided party.

It also seems as though Sunak is cutting through more strongly than might have been expected. Granted, the PM has had his own gaffes, but he is at least announcing policies, and from what I've read, it does appear as though Sunak might be having a bit of a resurgence.

 

[rob666]

Even if they don't quite fall that far, maybe a few from Labour could be convinced to defect to the Lib Dems once parliament sits?

Why on earth would you defect from the governing party to one that is known to be the usual distant third place runner?
Personal political suicide...without a doubt.

 

[Tom]

If the Tories end up just a couple of seats ahead of the Lib Dems, it might make for a tempting prospect for a few Labour MPs to make the Lib Dems the official opposition in an instant.

 

[tayspru]

A prospective government announcing new policies that they could have done at any point in the past 14 years stinks of desperation

The polls 5 weeks before the last GE were spot on with results

 

[BarryZola]

This is just the 'Labour aren't the Tories, so we're all going to vote for them' election. Labour will win comfortably and the Tories will get a kicking. Even if they were to be the third most successful party at the election they will just build themselves back up in a better image in the next several years. Boris will come to the forefront of the Tory party again just in time to lead them to victory in 8 years time when we're fed up of Labour's turn in charge.

That's what I reckon, anyway.

 

[Dave]

This is just the 'Labour aren't the Tories, so we're all going to vote for them' election. Labour will win comfortably and the Tories will get a kicking. Even if they were to be the third most successful party at the election they will just build themselves back up in a better image in the next several years. Boris will come to the forefront of the Tory party again just in time to lead them to victory in 8 years time when we're fed up of Labour's turn in charge.

That's what I reckon, anyway.

Boris Johnson is very unpopular with the population, he wouldn’t be who would get the Tory’s back in power.

You only win in the UK if you float around the centre, I’m not certain the Tory’s will pick a centrist leader so Labour might get 2 terms (10 years).

 

[Dobba]

You only win in the UK if you float around the centre, I’m not certain the Tory’s will pick a centrist leader so Labour might get 2 terms (10 years).

Sorry, what?

Is this a different UK to the one I live in, in which a party that declared war on those in receipt of benefits and called for a hostile environment on migrants has been in sole power for a decade?

 

[Matt N]

I think complacency is very dangerous at this stage.

Previous elections have proven that nothing is ever assured when it comes to general election results, and that polls can change quickly. Look at the 1992 election, where Neil Kinnock was supposedly nailed on to win and John Major managed to pull off a shock win at the eleventh hour. Or look at the 2017 election, where Theresa May’s initial polling would have given her a landslide majority and she ended up losing the modest majority that she inherited from David Cameron.

So my message to anyone who thinks that the election is a foregone conclusion is; it most certainly isn’t. If you want the Tories gone or Labour in power, you need to get out and vote for that outcome rather than just treat it as a foregone conclusion. The election is still all to play for, despite the many opinion polls implying that it isn’t.