Coronavirus

[Matt N]

Michael Gove has said that the government is sticking to its plans for schools to return in a staggered manner in January: https://apple.news/AfHwJxfirT4yjC0y6IiSTbg

Looks like we may not have to worry about school closures after all!

 

[Craig]

If we could all ensure you're sourcing your posts in this topic. There's been a number of posts in recent weeks which have been speculation in newspapers which are then posted as though they are fact.

If you are going to post things, please state whether the information being posted is speculation from a newspaper, or off the back of an official announcement. At the bare minimum, everyone should be posting where they have sourced their information from to allow people to make an informed decision.

The current, official information is that schools will have on site learning for exam year groups (mainly years 11 and 13) for the first week from 4th January, with others expected to return on 11th January.

There has been many news stories in the papers about changes to schools opening in January, but those stories are currently speculation, not a change to the official guidance at present.

Michael Gove has said that the government is sticking to its plans for schools to return in a staggered manner in January: https://apple.news/AfHwJxfirT4yjC0y6IiSTbg

Looks like we may not have to worry about school closures after all!

Oh Matt, you have much to learn about how the government word things in preparation for possible U turns . As much as on the face of it that article sounds like Michael Gove is saying nothing will change, there's one key quote:

But, asked if the government could be flexible in its plans for schools to return, Mr Gove reiterated the government's plan to push ahead with reopening schools from next week with enhanced testing.

"We always keep things under review," he said.

That quote right there, is groundwork for potential changes of the back of SAGE apparently recommending schools remain in online learning for longer in a meeting last week. This is where the stories in the newspapers have come from, although as mentioned this is still speculation at present.

 

[BigT]

Another day and more complaining from the southern based press that we should have a national lockdown.
Quite how this helps down south where the problem lies when they are already in a lockdown god only knows but they won’t be happy until they get the very few freedoms the rest of us have removed as well.
How different it was when it was the other way around......

 

[Craig]

This isn't solely a southern problem now, it's rapidly becoming a national issue. Across England, 7 day case rates have risen in 283 of the 315 local authorities in England. Just 32 have seen a drop. And remember, that's only on numbers up to the 24th December at present. We're starting to see bigger jumps across the country in the last few days which aren't reflected yet.

There's a very difficult balancing act at present, as we're in a bit of an unknown due to a number of factors which are either reducing the number of infections or potentially masking them:

• Schools appear to be a main factor in the speed of the spread in London and the South East. Elsewhere, we appear to have been incredibly fortunate that school holidays kicked in just before or just as the new strain hit those areas. That's so far resulted in slowing the exponential rise in the South East and London.
• For those with mild symptoms, there will be a (hopefully small) chunk of people who will be very reluctant to get a test over the Christmas period. Incredibly irresponsible, but it wouldn't surprise me if some avoided getting tested and went about their business. Or, they avoided getting tested and isolate to prevent other members of the family or friends having to be told to self isolate through the app/test and trace. That could mask the true number of infections at present.
• Christmas bubbles are yet to be factored into the current infections, and are unlikely to be in any sort of large number until Thursday or Friday. That's extremely worrying considering we are already seeing increases across the board.

It should be said, I absolutely despise lockdowns and higher tiers. Being in tier 3 now following lockdown, I struggle horrendously with them. So do we accept a lockdown or harsher local tiers that we seem to really need now, or do we get to an even more uncontrollable level within the next few weeks and end up with an even longer lockdown as we did in March and as we did in November?

For me, I'm of the view now that we are so close to having a proper rollout of the vaccine that I'd sooner the harsher brakes be put on now rather than later on. Although the vaccines are in sight now, it's clear there's going to be nowhere near enough quantity wise to have any effect just yet. Reducing infections now is key to allow us to have any sort of recovery in 2021. Likewise, with this new strain the government also need to give proper consideration to schools. Yes it's essential they're in, and I fully agreed with that previously. But the game has changed now that this new strain has been seen to be spreading so quickly particularly within secondary schools. They need to make a decision quickly so that teachers and parents can make adequate preparations to deal with the split of online learning, as well as have a clear plan to get them back in a phased way with adequate testing (and the guidance and resources to administer that) as soon as possible.

Yet again though I'm also really concerned at the lack of communication from the government at present. Some sections of the press have been allowed to run riot with no sort of official response. There's been no information for schools whilst rumours persist in the press/social media. There's no official explanation on why Nightingale hospitals being shut (because there's no adequate resource available to staff them). As a result we've now got social media running wild talking about 'scamdemics' and pointing out ridiculous misleading comparisons on bed occupancy levels without any sort of understanding the difference additional protocols are in place at the hospitals cause.

I fear that we're at the tipping point of a large chunk of the public not giving a damn now. The good faith has been wasted away with mismanagement, poor decision making, communication and timing. Strap in, January ain't gonna be fun!

 

[BigT]

Craig you missed one point, testing capacity and numbers tested also increased 25% about 10 days ago so of course figures are going up elsewhere.
Schools been closed won’t be in the figures yet either and the numbers for today are a lag from over Christmas.
I’m no conspiracist but all of this has created a perfect storm for the media and scientists, Boris will be bounced into yet another unnecessary national lockdown and numbers will amazingly come down next week as they would do if he does nothing.
I’m also not sure of this new strain is that much to blame, already the figures have gone from 70% more infectious to 50% today.
The fact is they messed up, London should of been in tier 3 to start with after the lockdown and they are trying to mask their incompetence.

 

[Craig]

Craig you missed one point, testing capacity and numbers tested also increased 25% about 10 days ago so of course figures are going up elsewhere.
Schools been closed won’t be in the figures yet either and the numbers for today are a lag from over Christmas.
I’m no conspiracist but all of this has created a perfect storm for the media and scientists, Boris will be bounced into yet another unnecessary national lockdown and numbers will amazingly come down next week as they would do if he does nothing.

Testing capacity has indeed increased, however the number of tests performed in recent days has actually been much lower than the pre Christmas where they were carrying out 450k, sometimes 500k tests a day:

28th December: 357,238
27th December: 352,702
26th December: 269,876
25th December: 339,024
24th December: 463,123
23rd December: 509,507
22nd December: 453,903

The vast majority of positive tests today had a specimen date of the 26th onwards, so it's a concern we're actually finding more positives with less testing in recent days. There's also not that much of a lag from Christmas in the grand scheme of things, the backdating by specimen date is around the same as pre Christmas (the same graph from December 23rd):

There's also other bits of data that are starting to show an increase in people displaying symptoms. NHS pathways data for example, which is the number of people calling 111 has started to show an uptick nationwide:

I’m also not sure of this new strain is that much to blame, already the figures have gone from 70% more infectious to 50% today.
The fact is they messed up, London should of been in tier 3 to start with after the lockdown and they are trying to mask their incompetence.

Fully agree with you on the messed up comment. The new strain I still believe is an aggravating factor in the issues down south, but this was not the sole cause of the London issue. Cases were not showing any sort of significant drop in a lot of areas in London after lockdown, and with mass transit being the main option for most in the city resulting in plenty being in poorly ventilated close quarters, it was a completely idiotic decision to put them into tier 2 in the first place.

We are where we are though, and they have to get on and do something before we're back to square one nationwide, we can't just say they messed up and carry on in the hope it's going to go away. I have no doubt Boris has been bounced into making decisions, but if press rumours are to be believed, he's being bounced out of the harsher restrictions he would prefer into the more lenient measure/late decisions which have been made so far. At the end of the day though, he's PM and must take responsibility no matter what advice he is given.

 

[GaryH]

I will be very surprised if there is another National lockdown given the damage it does. In Devon at the moment our cases are quite low, just a third of the English average.
We knew cases would go up in the winter with people mingling more indoors. What I can’t get my head around however is why the frontline nhs staff are not getting the vaccines first so the nightingale centres can open.

 

[RoyJess]

The oxford vaccine now been approved!

This will be a game changer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

 

[rob666]

The Nightingales are easy to build, harder to staff.
Full lockdown by teatime I reckon.

 

[Skyscraper]

I will be very surprised if there is another National lockdown given the damage it does. In Devon at the moment our cases are quite low, just a third of the English average.
We knew cases would go up in the winter with people mingling more indoors. What I can’t get my head around however is why the frontline nhs staff are not getting the vaccines first so the nightingale centres can open.

Some of the Nightingale centres have already been dismantled due to not enough staff.

 

[Danza91]

Another day and more complaining from the southern based press that we should have a national lockdown.
Quite how this helps down south where the problem lies when they are already in a lockdown god only knows but they won’t be happy until they get the very few freedoms the rest of us have removed as well.
How different it was when it was the other way around......

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the November lockdown due a rise in cases mainly in the north?

I'm stuck down here in Herts in lockdown misery but not spending my time wishing everyone else in the country was suffering too. I am with Craig, I absolutely despise lockdowns and higher tiers too.

 

[Rojo]

The oxford vaccine now been approved!

This will be a game changer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

Hopefully it will @RoyJess! It can be stored better, the UK has a bigger stockpile and doesn't have the same allergen risks as Pfizer, so more people can take it.

It's also worth noting that this delivery method was being developed in the aid of Cancer treatment. So it could have the double whammy of doing its thing for Coronavirus and now the turbo button has been hit it can be looked at as a Cancer treatment much sooner that it ever would have been.

So happy this has been approved and as noted in here previously, the factory my mum works has been manufacturing it. So proud that the work she and her colleagues have been putting in this year will have a profound effect on getting us back on track Hopefully!

 

[BigT]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the November lockdown due a rise in cases mainly in the north?

I'm stuck down here in Herts in lockdown misery but not spending my time wishing everyone else in the country was suffering too. I am with Craig, I absolutely despise lockdowns and higher tiers too.

I will correct you if you don’t mind, the November lockdown was mostly down to rising cases in London, there was talk of London going into their 3 but they put the whole country into lockdown instead, cases in the north were starting to level off and drop by this point although the press then said it was due to the lockdown. (It wasn’t)

 

[Islander]

I will correct you if you don’t mind, the November lockdown was mostly down to rising cases in London, there was talk of London going into their 3 but they put the whole country into lockdown instead, cases in the north were starting to level off and drop by this point although the press then said it was due to the lockdown. (It wasn’t)

Have reputable sources to back up these claims?

 

[Craig]

That's incorrect, the lockdown in November was not due to London. It was a response to a steep upward curve mainly in the Midlands and North East, but rises were starting to be seen everywhere when the decision was made except for one region in England (North West). Lockdown was announced on 31st October and put in place on 5th November, and peaks of 7 day average case rates were seen after the restrictions came in in the majority of areas according to the government dashboard:

North East: 10th November
London: 11th November
East Midlands: 9th November
East of England: 9th November
South East: 11th November
South West: 11th November
West Midlands: 11th November

London was actually on a far less steeper curve than the majority of other regions. At the time, the Midlands, especially West Midlands and the North East was of particular concern, but most areas were seeing a rise nonetheless. In fact, the regions who appear to have lost out if you solely look at cases were:

Yorkshire and Humber: 6th November
North West: 19th October

Yorkshire and the North West was likely due to the harsher tiers being in place in a lot of areas within those regions, hence the earlier peak. The Tees Valley area of the north east for example (that's me) was under Tier 2 pre lockdown. But then hospitalisation and patients on ventilation data will also have had to have been factored into the decision as well. I'd also speculate that schools returning from October half term also contributed to increases in cases too.

I can't find anything to argue against the fact that the national lockdown did have an effect on case numbers, when the data points to drops being seen when it was implemented in most areas. Even where data only shows things levelling off, without them an increase would likely be seen despite those tougher restrictions being in place.

My argument has always been what happened after lockdown ended on the 2nd December. Cases in London showed a shallower decline during lockdown compared to other regions, and the 7 day average began flattening off around the 20th November, before the new tiers were announced on the 26th November. Alarm bells then should've been sounding soon after the 23rd when that average started to increase even with the lockdown still in place.

The government had between the announcement on 26th November and when lockdown ended on the 2nd December to backtrack with an explanation to the public as to why London's tier should be revised, but chose not to. That's despite the 7 day average of London cases increasing between 26th November and 2nd December by nearly 10%, and from the start of the lockdown until the 2nd December by 17%. Politics took preference over health, and unfortunately we're all now paying the price for it.

 

[Matt N]

Gavin Williamson is apparently making an announcement regarding schools at 3:30pm today. We don’t know what he will announce, but Matt Hancock has hinted that the government’s current plans will need to change: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/schools-reopening-january-announcement-covid-b569528.html

Whatever they announce, I hope that schools are not shut for too long, and I also hope that they might possibly reconsider their stance on exams if schools are closed again. They know better than me, though, and we’ll just have to wait and see what they announce.

 

[Craig]

There's actually quite a lot going on today for a Wednesday:

• 3pm ish - Statement on tier changes to the house
• 3:30/4pm ish - Statement on schools changes
• 5pm (ish, always is) - Press Conference from Boris Johnson
• Latest case numbers will come at some point, they're normally delayed from the usual 4pm release on press conference days

The usual press conference is on a Thursday, so this is a change to the norm. Most likely due to the Commons sitting today so tier changes are being made public a day early. But, it's also an opportunity to sandwich the bad news in-between the good news of the Oxford vaccine gaining approval and the Brexit vote passing by about 2:30/3pm today.

 

[Rojo]

The Premier League had dismissed the idea of a circuit break. I wonder if they are banking on the Government halting elite sport again so they don't take the brunt of any blame.

Football isn't immune to everything going on around the UK and the amount of games cancelled recently proves that the sport "bubbles" is just theatre.

 

[Matt N]

Interestingly, it would appear that the government has shifted its vaccination strategy towards giving as many people as possible their first dose, as even one dose apparently still gives “very effective protection”. Everyone will still receive their second dose, but within an extended deadline of 12 weeks of the first dose as opposed to the 3-4 that it was before.

Interesting... what do you guys think?

EDIT: I have more positive news; a travel industry expert has predicted that foreign holidays could be back on from 1st May “with certainty”: https://apple.news/AIvac5C3vRYCJTQ3HtN7EaA

 

[Craig]

Interestingly, it would appear that the government has shifted its vaccination strategy towards giving as many people as possible their first dose, as even one dose apparently still gives “very effective protection”. Everyone will still receive their second dose, but within an extended deadline of 12 weeks of the first dose as opposed to the 3-4 that it was before.

Interesting... what do you guys think?

It should be noted that the MHRA, not the government have allowed the interval between the first and second dose to be extended to 4-12 weeks. Of course the government could have asked if this was possible, but the MHRA alone will make the decision to extend the time based on evidence provided from the trials by Oxford/AstraZeneca.

This change does mean more people can receive their first vaccination with the batches of vaccine already produced, as the up to 12 weeks allows further stocks to be delivered in the meantime. Of course the first dose alone doesn't give long lasting protection, but the good news is it has been shown to get rid of the seriousness of the virus. I do have concerns after recent performances that something could go wrong, but hopefully with a decent logistical setup we could move a little faster.

We should be under no illusion this is still a mammoth effort to get us out of where we are now, regardless of the dosing extension. We're still in the very early days, and it's going to require a few months to be able to come up with any realistic timescale of when we'd see restrictions being removed. Personally, the cries from government ministers and the press of "back to normal by Easter" should be ignored for the time being until we start to see a decent level of rollout.