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TBC: SW9 Speculation

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DistortAMG said:
There is no beating around the bush. The government forced them to shut. End of. They may have voulentarily closed at first. But this was quickly followed by a forced closure. Alton Towers would not be allowed to open right now, on instruction from the government, for example.
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Would this give them grounds for an insurance claim of some form for loss of business, dependant on their policy?
 
Matt N said:
Would this give them grounds for an insurance claim of some form for loss of business, dependant on their policy?
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Anything could be grounds for an insurance claim, if it's in their policy.

Typically insurance companies have 'act of God' clauses which allow them to reject claims in these sort of circumstances, but Merlin will likely have a bespoke insurance product so it's impossible to tell.
 
Country is heading for the worst recession in all our life times. And to add further fuel to the fire we have the prospect of a no deal Brexit too that could still happen as well.

A lot of UK parks will be gone after this. A lot of other businesses will too. People need to wise up. The next 5 years maybe more are going to be tough.
 
Benjsh said:
Country is heading for the worst recession in all our life times. And to add further fuel to the fire we have the prospect of a no deal Brexit too that could still happen as well.

A lot of UK parks will be gone after this. A lot of other businesses will too. People need to wise up. The next 5 years maybe more are going to be tough.
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I'm not sure whether Britain is comparable, but the German economy is predicted to be returning to 5.8% growth for 2021, with a 4.7% contraction for 2020 and a 10% contraction for Q2 of 2020. In the medium term, their economy should have returned to the level it would have reached had coronavirus not happened. If Britain is comparable, then the worst of the economic damage should have been done by the end of this year, and by 2025 or so, we should have returned to former economic levels.

With regards to Brexit, there seems to now be a push from many people for the PM to extend the transition period due to the exceptional circumstances that have occurred recently, so if enough people push for this to happen, I could see this being extended to 2021 or 2022 so that trade talks can happen, thus softening the economic blow.

Whatever happens, though; I think there will still be plenty of people out there visiting parks and other tourist attractions. There are many parks and other businesses that have survived far worse recessions than this one is predicted to be; places like Blackpool Pleasure Beach and Cedar Point have survived both world wars along with the Great Depression in the 1920s & 1930s, which was a far deeper recession than this one is predicted to be, as far as I'm aware. If you look at the amount of businesses that have been around since the 1800s or early 1900s (or even earlier in some cases), then I think that many businesses should be able to ride out the storm, especially with all the financial packages from the government; nothing of this sort existed during the depression or the wars.

Of course, I'm not saying that everything will survive this. Places will close, and jobs will be lost. But provided the business was financially strong pre-coronavirus, then I think it should be able to ride out the storm.
 
German predictions are just that, predictions.
By people who are being paid to take a positive perspective for the benefit of the economy.
Pinch of salt required in the current complex circumstances.
Relevant to Germany, not here outside Europe.
Blackpool Pleasure Beach used to run on a concessionary basis, each ride was run by a different company, like travelling fairs.
Lots of little businesses on one site, not one big business.
Many have come and gone (bust) over the years.
There are still a few concessions, but the park is run in a completely different way now.
Non essential industries tend to go tits up in big recessions.
Theme parks, like posh eating places, fancy car salesrooms and florists, will go bust in a major recession.
Others will be lucky if they can manage to sit tight for a few years.
Nothing to be confirmed for a good few years.
 
Matt N said:
Would this give them grounds for an insurance claim of some form for loss of business, dependant on their policy?
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I guess they would have some sort of insurance policy. The thing with insurance companies though is that they will try anything to get out of paying out. I guess the insurance people will find some way with this being under an 'act of god' and the government bailouts to get out of it. Who knows, I am sure some people on here are better equipped to comment on this.
 
Most people are saying that SW9 will either go:
. In Place of Rita
. In Place of Spinball
. In Place of CRR
I don't know what exactly will come whether it will be a water ride or a rollercoaster but I'd personally like to see a Mack Big Dipper maybe or hopefully an Intamin Blitz installed! But when SW9 does come it will have been put back a few years because of the virus!
 
I think "a few years" might be a little pessimistic. Despite CAPEX reductions, most parks are still investing in some capacity now, and most seem to predict that the financial impact on the theme park industry won't last much beyond 2020, potentially a little into 2021 dependant on when a vaccine becomes widely available. 2022 for SW9 opening is now looking less likely, I admit, but I could see 2023/2024 as being a new year for SW9 to be built. If it or another form of major investment hasn't been built by 2025, I'll be very surprised.

As someone on another forum said to me; the world isn't ending. Parks will still build new rides. In the medium term, once the parks are getting a steady cash flow again, they may well accelerate investment in order to bring people back!
 
WillPS said:
Which park is making investments now?
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Cedar Fair are still investing $85-100m in CAPEX for 2021 (admittedly down from $190m in a regular year), and Merlin have only cut 40% of their estate CAPEX. With most companies, it seems to just be a percentage of CAPEX cut as opposed to all of it.
 
I thought they were referring to 40% of non-essential CAPEX projects? Cedar Fair were definitely referring to non-essential CAPEX in their report, and they still plan to spend $85-100m in 2021.

With regard to Merlin, if they can ride out 2020 (and even potentially the first half of 2020, at that), then I'd suggest the worst of the financial damage may be behind them, and then it's just a question of rebuilding cash reserves; how long this will take, no one really knows. With this in mind, I'd suggest seeing SW9 open in 2023/2024 definitely seems plausible, and I don't think 2022 can be ruled out just yet. As I said before; 2022 now looks far less likely, but if it hasn't happened before 2025, I'll be very surprised.
 
Matt N said:
Cedar Fair are still investing $85-100m in CAPEX for 2021 (admittedly down from $190m in a regular year), and Merlin have only cut 40% of their estate CAPEX. With most companies, it seems to just be a percentage of CAPEX cut as opposed to all of it.
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2021 isn't now. No British leisure company is making major investments right now.

What was the Capex for next year? No major investment at the UK RTPs planned was there?

So you're looking at a 40% reduction on a 'low investment' year. 60% of not much is somewhere between a pittance and very little.
 
With several different forecasts of the worst recession in three hundred years, I really dont think any projects not yet started will commence at all, for years.
It looks like we could be in for a very bumpy ride indeed.
Lots of talk of a fast recovery, by people who simply dont have a clue, because it is their job to do so.
 
Unless the park has already ordered the ride then I can’t see another ride being built for a while. At a guess it will take sometime for the cash flow to balance normally. So I can’t see any large investment for at least 4/5 years. We might get some lovely painted fences and queue lines if we are lucky.
 
Now more than ever is an opportunity for the park to bring itself up-to-speed in terms of flat rides.

Each of the next few years should see a low budget, unique flat ride introduced (instead of a single bulk expenditure on a premium product). If they can have gimmicks to sway the public to visit in their masses then fab.

The park isn't going to spend big money on new attractions for a little while but I don't think new rides are out of the question entirely, especially given the increased need to spread out crowds.

Flat rides fit the bill. Scrap SW9 for the time being.
 
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