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TBC: SW9 Speculation

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ATI said:
I was under the impression that the Cross Valley Woodie was essentially confirmed to be an Intamin pre-fab?

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I was referring to the more recent of the two wooden coaster proposals, that was heavily rumoured in around 2015. The cross valley woodie that I think you’re referring to (the John Wardley-designed ride that had a planning application filed in 2003 with a planned opening in 2005) never had a manufacturer revealed, but I think you might be correct in saying that an Intamin pre-fab was strongly rumoured; it certainly matches up with the train design specified in the documents, that had 5 3-row cars!
 
To be honest I think although we didn’t see any official plans, Wicker Man (in my opinion) was and is the superior product to of invested in, even if I don’t agree with it being a replacement for The Flume. I don’t think a cross-valley coaster with its budget sucked in to rock removal and other environmental issues would of been a superior all-rounded product compared to what we have now (but, we’ll never know, because we didn’t see the plans!).

That’s not to say I wouldn’t love to see a CV coaster in the future, but in 2018 I think they definitely chose the superior product/project which fit the parks‘ need at that time.
 
kydog1299 said:
I don’t think a cross-valley coaster with its budget sucked in to rock removal and other environmental issues would of been a superior all-rounded product compared to what we have now (but, we’ll never know, because we didn’t see the plans!).
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You're getting mixed up with the cross valley wooden coaster, the one posted about above was the alternate plan to Wicker Man (with the rock removal etc). We never saw the layout for that proposed coaster.

And I heard floating around that one was gonna be an RMC, so who really knows eh.

Although Wicker Man was ultimately the cheaper coaster and has quite an average layout considering, part of me is glad Forbidden Valley didnt just become chock full of coasters with yet more flats removed. Wicker Man was a great location in the end, spread the coasters around the park
 
I agree with @OilyWater; I think it’s good for the park to have a more thrilling coaster in that part of the park. Pre-Wicker Man, all of the signature thrill rides were towards the back of the park, whereas now, they have a brilliant signature coaster at the front of the park. I know Spinball is at the front of the park, but I wouldn’t personally class that as a signature thrill ride.

I also like that it gave Mutiny Bay a real standout attraction for thrill seekers; while the area was always nice pre-Wicker Man, I think it lacked an attraction that really made you want to stay there.

In terms of the coaster hardware itself; I know it’s going to be controversial, but I actually think I prefer what Wicker Man turned out to be to what the cross valley wooden coaster would have been based on how the cross valley looks from the renderings. While the two huge drops would have been unique, that was all the layout really had going on, whereas Wicker Man has quite a few more different banked turns and hills going on; I think it has a greater and more fun variety of elements, personally.

With regards to the FV wooden coaster; I have my doubts as to whether it would have necessarily been RMC. A few things lead me to that conclusion; for starters, the ride was described as having sound tunnels, which we are yet to see on an RMC wooden or hybrid coaster, and I don’t think RMC wooden coasters are really built in a way that lend themselves to sound tunnels. Also, I actually think that the minimal description we had sounds surprisingly similar to Wicker Man. Thinking about it, the rumoured elevation of the coaster (taking into account terrain) was around 20m (I know the height was listed as 14.5m, but thinking about it, the 20m figure could be the approximate height difference); according to GCI, Wicker Man has a 22m height difference. The planning application describes the ride as having three high points, with some enclosed in sound tunnels; Wicker Man has three high points, with some of them enclosed in sound tunnels (I’d say that the lift hill, the first airtime hill and the turnaround above the queue line would all arguably count as high points). The described buildings also sound very Wicker Man-esque to me. The rumoured length was also only 300ft longer than Wicker Man.

I know it sounds like a mad hypothesis, but could the FV wooden coaster have actually been a very similar ride to Wicker Man, but built in a different location with a different theme?
 
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Matt N said:
I know it sounds like a mad hypothesis, but could the FV wooden coaster have actually been a very similar ride to Wicker Man, but built in a different location with a different theme?
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I'm pretty sure the two were quite different and Wicker Man's layout was designed especially for the Flume site

Also it's possible to put a tunnel on basically any coaster, as long as there's the clearance evelope. It would probably have had to be done for any noisy wooden coaster, because of sound travelling outside the park at the high points of the track.
 
Multi launch RMC on air car park was my guess before covid 19. What we get now who knows. Maybe the pandemic will effect budgets and they might opt for something cheaper from S&S for example.
 
Benjsh said:
Multi launch RMC on air car park was my guess before covid 19. What we get now who knows. Maybe the pandemic will effect budgets and they might opt for something cheaper from S&S for example.
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Doubt that. I think a Vekoma would be more likely than an S&S, but I still think an Intamin or a B&M would be more likely, as I imagine Merlin do have the clash.

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If anything, I’d wager it will probably be whatever they planned before, just pushed back a year or two. It was rumoured for 2022, so I’d say the ride they had planned before is likely, but possibly in 2023/2024. 2022 definitely isn’t impossible, but I think we will need planning permission sooner rather than later if it is 2022.

The ride has reportedly been in the works since late 2017, so if it was planned for 2022, I’d wager that it was probably far enough along that the park had a very, very good idea of what they were building. Someone said here that the park director said at an RCCGB event in 2019 that it “wasn’t wood”, so I’d suggest that the park probably knew what they were getting even as far back as 2019, so with a solid 6 months to a year of development added on even pre-COVID, I think it’s very unlikely that they’d throw it out completely, personally.
 
Matt N said:
If anything, I’d wager it will probably be whatever they planned before, just pushed back a year or two. It was rumoured for 2022, so I’d say the ride they had planned before is likely, but possibly in 2023/2024. 2022 definitely isn’t impossible, but I think we will need planning permission sooner rather than later if it is 2022.

The ride has reportedly been in the works since late 2017, so if it was planned for 2022, I’d wager that it was probably far enough along that the park had a very, very good idea of what they were building. Someone said here that the park director said at an RCCGB event in 2019 that it “wasn’t wood”, so I’d suggest that the park probably knew what they were getting even as far back as 2019, so with a solid 6 months to a year of development added on even pre-COVID, I think it’s very unlikely that they’d throw it out completely, personally.
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It depends how far down the line they was. If it was just looking at certain models or making plans then more then likely it will go out the window if it’s too expensive. For the next few years merlin will want to spend next to nothing so they won’t invest heavily on the new coaster before 2024/5. Just have to wait and see how bad the budget is next year to work out how many years.
 
Mr Pearse said:
It depends how far down the line they was. If it was just looking at certain models or making plans then more then likely it will go out the window if it’s too expensive. For the next few years merlin will want to spend next to nothing so they won’t invest heavily on the new coaster before 2024/5. Just have to wait and see how bad the budget is next year to work out how many years.
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I wouldn’t be so sure; other theme parks are still announcing stuff and pressing ahead with plans they had for 2022. For example, Parc Asterix’s launch coaster was planned for 2022, but merely got pushed back to 2023.

With this in mind, especially considering that the park director sounded fairly certain of the ride type when they spoke to RCCGB last year, my point is; never say never. The world isn’t ending, and I think parks will still invest into new things to a degree in order to get people back.
 
Matt N said:
I wouldn’t be so sure; other theme parks are still announcing stuff and pressing ahead with plans they had for 2022. For example, Parc Asterix’s launch coaster was planned for 2022, but merely got pushed back to 2023.
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All depends how far some companies have got with the planning stages. If no money has been invested yet and just ride supplier has been identified just means it’s in the starting process. Another thing to think about is that merlin is a large company compared to other parks. They have lost possibly between 400-700million since lockdown. That’s not the sort of money that appears overnight it will take time to recoup that sort of loss so any coaster plans will be shelved for a while.
 
MakoMania said:
The certainty being expressed by some that any new projects won't go ahead reminds me of the same unquestionable certainty expressed only weeks ago that theme parks would not open in 2020.

The simple truth is we just don't know.
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I personally think new projects will go ahead with some tweaks but not in the same timeframe expected. I think compared to when the parks will reopen this is a completely different situation that’s out of merlins hands. So with a company making a big loss I personally wouldn’t expect them to carry on with any project for the foreseeable future till the ship is balanced. As I said many times you don’t lose possibly 4-700million and be able to carry on as usual it will take A while to recover from this before they risk a big investment. I still think they will revise the plans in 2023 and open in 2025 I see that as a realistic time frame.
 
I just thought of another factor that could aid the recovery; it’s very likely that the required distancing will reduce to 1m or 1.5m very soon. I read that a 1m distance would allow most pubs to work at 60-70% capacity. I’m not sure whether it would have the same effect in theme parks, but this would surely allow the parks to let more guests in when they reopen, therefore increasing profit margins. While they can’t reach full capacity, I’d wager that most British parks probably only exceed 70% capacity on very few days of the season, so in theory, parks could have restored a near normal level of cash flow per day by the summer. Of course, the overheads acquired during lockdown still need clearing, however near normal levels of cash flow from summer onwards would certainly go some way towards clearing these more quickly.

Am I correct in making these predictions if a 1m distance was introduced prior to 4th July?

Also, with regards to my predictions on whether new projects go ahead, I’m going off of what I’ve seen with most other major theme park companies. While Merlin are admittedly a bit different to most park companies what with their midways, most major theme park companies worldwide seem quite keen to press on with what they had planned pre-COVID within a similar timeframe, delaying by a year in many cases. Some companies even seem keen to press ahead with designing new projects!
 
Islander said:
Where's this figure come from?
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they said since lockdown they was spending 50mil a month in over costs. Then you add together the lost revenue so I always say possibly but it could be around 4-700million.
https://blooloop.com/news/merlin-entertainments-accounts-going-concern-impact-covid-19/
that’s where I got the figure from. But another thing to add is non of the midways have an open date or been confirmed when they can reopen so it’s good the parks are open but it’s still going to cost them a lot each month to keep the midways running.
 
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Interesting theories on Sw9 , I can see it being pushed back though.Personally Would like to see another B&M ,most likely the new “surf” multi launch coaster.Where it will be is another discussion, when I was at the park last week there was some markings on the ground at the back of the Dark forest...Might be nothing though ha ha .
 
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