So, with SW9 originally being rumoured for 2022, and presuming it has been pushed back by (at least) a year to 2023, if we follow the planning application timescale of Wicker Man we should see plans early summer this year.
I can’t decide if I’m being too optimistic, Merlin have signalled they still intend to pursue new investments with the likes of Croc Drop proceeding and the new Peppa Pig park/land in Florida, however there is still every chance that the ride could have been pushed to 2024. Do we think 2023 is still realistic for SW9?
With Merlin’s investments; it’s worth noting that Croc Drop was ordered and under construction pre-COVID, so I don’t think their investment strategy would have been represented by Croc Drop still opening in 2021. You raise a good point with the Peppa Pig park in Florida, however, as the planning permit for that went in post-COVID, and it’s also worth remembering that Shaman at Gardaland is currently undergoing a full retrack (arguably a far riskier thing to do than building a new coaster, in commercial terms), so I don’t think Merlin is scrimping on investment by any means.
I think 2023/2024 is a realistic expectation, personally. Most operators are pushing back plans by a year or so as opposed to cancelling them or pushing them so far back into the future, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see SW9 at some point around then. There were indications that the park had already been planning SW9 pre-COVID (for example, there were rumours that the ride had already started early planning when Wicker Man was in the late stages of construction, and at an RCCGB event in 2019, it was said that more info could be expected in 2020 and that it “wasn’t wood”), so I wouldn’t be surprised if we did see something in 2023 or 2024.
On the flip side, there have been no real rumours about anything specific, or a strong indication that anything is brewing behind the scenes, which there definitely was at this point in 2016 with Wicker Man. However, stranger things have happened in the past, and we may well have some signs and rumours begin to appear later in the year.
Another thing to back up that we might see SW9 in 2023 or 2024 is that social distancing should have been abolished by then (by Boris’ roadmap, it might potentially have been abolished after 21st June), so the park would be able to see a decent return on any investment it makes. The park may even want something big once social distancing has been abolished, to “come back with a bang”, as it were.
So, in conclusion, I think 2023 is definitely a realistic hope for an SW9 opening. If it, or an equivalent major investment, hasn’t happened by 2025, I’d be quite surprised.