• ℹ️ Heads up...

    This is a popular topic that is fast moving Guest - before posting, please ensure that you check out the first post in the topic for a quick reminder of guidelines, and importantly a summary of the known facts and information so far. Thanks.

The Great Squeeze: Cost of Living Crisis 2022

Dave said:
You stated you had more criticism for the opposition than the government, I asked you to outline why.

As for polls in a multi-party picture such as the uk to get a double digit lead is almost impossible. Bear in mind the Tory’s won an 80 seat majority with an 8.6% higher vote share than labour, as it stands with the current polling the modelling suggests Labour would get 302 seats to the Tory’s 256 seats… obviously since the SNP took over labours Scottish vote they will always struggle to get an outright majority.

Anyway the point is national polling can give widely different majorities for small swings in percentage voting intention in a first past the post system with multiple parties in play.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't give an indication of what the makeup of a post election parliament would be like and also the unreliability of polls in the era we now live in.

But bearing in mind everything that's happening in the country at the moment with scandals and a cost of living crisis which is shaping up to be quite catastrophic, may I ask what your views are on just 6% of those surveyed (even as little more than an approximate barometer) stating a voting intention for Labour ahead of the Tories in what looks like could be one of the lowest points of government popularity in this parliamentary cycle?

I'm very worried. It also seems to show that Labour aren't making any movement against the SNP as well, which I think should be a major focus for the party seeing as how low popularity of the government is almost a given at the moment.
 
Matt.GC said:
I agree this doesn't give an indication of what the makeup of a post election parliament would be like and also the unreliability of polls in the era we now live in.

But bearing in mind everything that's happening in the country at the moment with scandals and a cost of living crisis which is shaping up to be quite catastrophic, may I ask what your views are on just 6% of those surveyed (even as little more than an approximate barometer) stating a voting intention for Labour ahead of the Tories in what looks like could be one of the lowest points of government popularity in this parliamentary cycle?

I'm very worried. It also seems to show that Labour aren't making any movement against the SNP as well, which I think should be a major focus for the party seeing as how low popularity of the government is almost a given at the moment.
Click to expand...

The main issue is the makeup of the uk politic, the right is pretty much represented by one party in the Tory’s (Lib dems take a small amount of the centre right), whereas the left has the Lib Dems, labour, green, SNP all snapping at the same electorate pool.

You also have to remember that due to FPTP political parties don’t target the whole country, they target vulnerable seats so any advertising/ campaigning monies to change peoples voting intentions only gets spent in specific areas.

As for Labour and the SNP, labour can’t sell anything the SNP can’t already except opposition to independence. Their general ideology and political positioning are relatively matched and the union supporting left wing vote is dwindling.
 
Dave said:
As for Labour and the SNP, labour can’t sell anything the SNP can’t already except opposition to independence. Their general ideology and political positioning are relatively matched and the union supporting left wing vote is dwindling.
Click to expand...
The only issue here is that although they are similar ideologically, every time they vote for the SNP they vote for a tory government because of the way our political system works. So when the SNP complain they get a Tory government they didn't vote for well actually they did.
 
JAperson said:
The only issue here is that although they are similar ideologically, every time they vote for the SNP they vote for a tory government because of the way our political system works. So when the SNP complain they get a Tory government they didn't vote for well actually they did.
Click to expand...
The SNP want a Tory government as, rather than using the powers they already have to deliver for the Scottish people, it further helps their case for independence.

If it was me running the Labour campaign up there, I'd be mocking up an image of Sturgeon and Blackford handing a set of keys labelled "No.10" and handing them to Johnson.

The thing about nationalists is, it always takes precedence over everything else. If Scotland was a right wing country I have no doubt they'd be chasing a right agenda (like they used to actually).
 
Couldn't Labour just form a coalition with the SNP if they (Labour) won enough English, Welsh & Northern Irish seats? The idea often seems to be floated, and the two parties do have many quite similar policies, so I think it would work well!
 
Matt N said:
Couldn't Labour just form a coalition with the SNP if they (Labour) won enough English, Welsh & Northern Irish seats? The idea often seems to be floated, and the two parties do have many quite similar policies, so I think it would work well!
Click to expand...
They could and probably would consider it. But it would come at a great cost.
 
Matt.GC said:
The SNP want a Tory government as, rather than using the powers they already have to deliver for the Scottish people, it further helps their case for independence.

If it was me running the Labour campaign up there, I'd be mocking up an image of Sturgeon and Blackford handing a set of keys labelled "No.10" and handing them to Johnson.

The thing about nationalists is, it always takes precedence over everything else. If Scotland was a right wing country I have no doubt they'd be chasing a right agenda (like they used to actually).
Click to expand...
Oh I know they want it, but I'm talking about SNP supporters, who seem to think that voting SNJP will actually get rid of a tory government. I mean if they were against leaving the EU I can't understand why you'd want to leave a union you trade even closer with.

Matt N said:
Couldn't Labour just form a coalition with the SNP if they (Labour) won enough English, Welsh & Northern Irish seats? The idea often seems to be floated, and the two parties do have many quite similar policies, so I think it would work well!
Click to expand...
No, the nationalists would insist on separating the countries government they are literally meant to be part of. The left coalition is usually talking about Labour, the liberals democrats and the greens. Including the SNP is an awful idea and gives these nationalists credibility they don't deserve. Current predictions would suggest that Labour could do a coalition like this and be in power without the need to include the SNP.
 
Matt N said:
What sort of cost do you mean?
Click to expand...
You can bet your bottom dollar on copious amounts of cash being bunged over Hadrian's wall like how May bought her majority when she failed to win one by sending a large cheque across the Irish Sea. I also think the SNP full of clever minds who could disrupt a coalition badly if they didn't get their own way. Also imagine the ConDem coalition but the other way round, with the junior partner throwing the senior under the bus for any failures (I can hear it now - " If Scotland was independent, we wouldn't have to be held back by the Westminster Labour Party"). Plus Indyref 2. No isn't an answer the SNP understand.
 
JAperson said:
Separating the worlds longest living political union over some silly fantasy of freedom which will make Scotland poorer. I can't speak for @Matt.GC but that would be my answer.
Click to expand...

Why would it make Scotland poorer? There are far smaller countries than Scotland that do well.

Labour wouldn’t go into coalition with the SNP, they might agree a confidence and supply vote but if they got 300 seats they would be more likely to do that with the Lib Dems on the promise of either a straight switch to PR voting or a referendum on it.
 
To do a coalition with SNP would come with a "you can have another independence vote" agreement.

Whether that's good or bad is a different matter entirely. But given that they only stayed in our union because they were told they'd be out of the EU I doubt that sentiment has gone away.
 
Dave said:
Why would it make Scotland poorer? There are far smaller countries than Scotland that do well.

Labour wouldn’t go into coalition with the SNP, they might agree a confidence and supply vote but if they got 300 seats they would be more likely to do that with the Lib Dems on the promise of either a straight switch to PR voting or a referendum on it.
Click to expand...
Scotland does the majority of it's trade with England, such as whisky and some other products. With similar red tape to Brexit they'd have significant problems selling it. Scotland's economy is so connected to the rest of the UK that trying to remove it would cause significant problems. They also don't have a separated currency or central bank, trying to create both is very expensive and can cause significant economy collapses. Some countries Scotland's size however none of them have been part of such an integrated union, especially for such a long period of time.

Labour may well have to get the SNP's votes on certain matters in some form of confidence vote sharing however a coalition is very unlikely.
 
JAperson said:
Scotland does the majority of it's trade with England, such as whisky and some other products. With similar red tape to Brexit they'd have significant problems selling it. Scotland's economy is so connected to the rest of the UK that trying to remove it would cause significant problems. They also don't have a separated currency or central bank, trying to create both is very expensive and can cause significant economy collapses. Some countries Scotland's size however none of them have been part of such an integrated union, especially for such a long period of time.

Labour may well have to get the SNP's votes on certain matters in some form of confidence vote sharing however a coalition is very unlikely.
Click to expand...

Those are all short term issues, Scotland would still trade with England on whiskey, and they would almost certainly match Stirling until they moved to the Euro.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t want it to happen, just as I didn’t want brexit to happen, but I think the idea Scotland would be a failed state under independence is laughable, and as they have no control over their own future (dragged out of the EU and ultimately governed by a party in Westminster that is ideologically opposed to the majority of the population you can’t be surprised that they are willing to take that short term pain based on the polls.
 
Dave said:
Those are all short term issues, Scotland would still trade with England on whiskey, and they would almost certainly match Stirling until they moved to the Euro.
Click to expand...
I mean the EU require countries to have there own currency and an independent central bank before joining. They then have to fix that to the euro, something which would be impossible with sterling. Trading with England would be considerably harder, a good comparison is the queue's at Dover to get stuff to France, a similar situation across the Scottish border is also likely. Further more Scotland doesn't meet several other joining critera and matching them could be quite a challenge.

Either way it would cause sustained long term problems to Scotland's eonomy as Brexit has done to the whole of the UK.
Dave said:
Don’t get me wrong I don’t want it to happen, just as I didn’t want brexit to happen, but I think the idea Scotland would be a failed state under independence is laughable
Click to expand...
No they wouldn't be a failed state however they'd be much poorer and would have to cut lots of public services or raise taxes to very high levels to survive without a massive collapse.

Anyway we are going a little bit of topic here but I just think if Scotland was so opposed to Brexit then they really shouldn't want to leave a union they are even more integrated into, and relay on to fund there public services.
 
Hey Shell...Why don't you pay every last household in the country a grand each to help out with the hell that is fuel/energy costs?
That would only take up half of this quarters profits overall, still a fat wad for the shareholders.
No windfall tax on profits...good old Boris.
 
I have been listening to a lot of the debate about strike action and threatened ballots from other unions. The issue is this.

Between late 2010 and 2019, we were in austerity. Pay in the public sector (specifically teaching, as that is my sector) at least was constantly either at 0% (for 3 years) or 1% (for 5 years). Only on one occasion in the past 11 years, have the teaching pay scales jumped up by inflation. Every other year they have not. In 2020, there was a pay award of 2.75% - the biggest in a decade but still feeble given what had happened. Then 2021 came and the government returned us to a freeze again (and the current freeze is ongoing).

As a consequence of this, teaching is now a profession which rewards 19% less than it did in 2010. With the current inflation crisis, any disparity between the rise given for next year and inflation will add to this figure.

I fully expect that the government will award 3% to teachers. It is likely to be similar in other public services.

Should this be the case, then the salary of teachers will have fallen back in real terms by over 25% since 2010. Not to mention pension reforms which mean that employee contributions are higher now than they were.

Now that is truly incredible. What are people to do? Sit there and see their living standards eroded over extended periods?

Maybe if we hadn't just had a decade of austerity, there might just be a little more goodwill...
 
Last edited:
Just retire and get the 10% rise that's coming instead.

The sad thing is that you see the snide MPs posting things like "Cheers Kier" and people lapping it up.

The greatest lies the Tories told was that they haven't been in charge during all the problems.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top