The (hypothetical) Universal Impact - Merlin's response. Tanks on their lawn, or golden opportunities?

[Jb85]

Alton will be fine - it’s of the scale and location to survive and maybe thrive.

The smaller UK parks may suffer, but fear for Chessie and Thorpe the most.

 

[QTXAdsy]

To think of the worst case scenario that is a certain once Universal is built, Merlin will be forced to play second fiddle to Universal which that thought alone will be worse than losing any of their UK parks as Merlin's pride will be scorned.

They know all too well that in their current state there is no way they'll be able to compete with Universal if they wanted too so with the thinking that it seems that money taps have been switched off after what is being felt this year with cost cutting and such, it would seem that the only way to release more money is if they sell off one of their UK parks with Chessington I feel being the sacrificial lamb. I know many will argue that Merlin will not do this but then again given how we've seen nothing from Chessington this year and no real concrete plan other than the hotel that may or may not be built going forward never mind the poor upkeep of the place which admittedly is seen in all the Merlin parks, but it does look to be not in a good place compared to the others.

If they were to sell it off for, I don't know, £200 million or something (maybe worth much less but whatever) then that would free up cash for not only fixing the other parks but importantly raising wages for staff which will be critically as Universal will likely have a more attractive wage for staff and we've seen how poor the parks have been due to staff shortages...Universal will make this situation even worse than what we are seeing now and if Merlin don't address that then they are screwed.

 

[Bert2theSpark]

To think of the worst case scenario that is a certain once Universal is built, Merlin will be forced to play second fiddle to Universal which that thought alone will be worse than losing any of their UK parks as Merlin's pride will be scorned.

They know all too well that in their current state there is no way they'll be able to compete with Universal if they wanted too so with the thinking that it seems that money taps have been switched off after what is being felt this year with cost cutting and such, it would seem that the only way to release more money is if they sell off one of their UK parks with Chessington I feel being the sacrificial lamb. I know many will argue that Merlin will not do this but then again given how we've seen nothing from Chessington this year and no real concrete plan other than the hotel that may or may not be built going forward never mind the poor upkeep of the place which admittedly is seen in all the Merlin parks, but it does look to be not in a good place compared to the others.

If they were to sell it off for, I don't know, £200 million or something (maybe worth much less but whatever) then that would free up cash for not only fixing the other parks but importantly raising wages for staff which will be critically as Universal will likely have a more attractive wage for staff and we've seen how poor the parks have been due to staff shortages...Universal will make this situation even worse than what we are seeing now and if Merlin don't address that then they are screwed.

They won't sell off capital to pay for operational expenses like wages, that would be like throwing money into a black hole on a balance sheet. I'd imagine Chessington is the most dependent on the synergy between the Merlin parks so if they sold it off they'd lose a significant proportion of their attendance for good...

Not going to happen.

 

[Donkey]

Alton will be fine - it’s of the scale and location to survive and maybe thrive.

The smaller UK parks may suffer, but fear for Chessie and Thorpe the most.

I think Thorpe Park will be fine. It will still be able to market itself as the most 'thrilling' park in the UK. I imagine future major attractions there will be on the scale of Hyperia i.e.

- Mostly targeted at teenagers and adults looking for thrilling rides.

- Decent return on investment by building something highly marketable without going overboard (it could have been twice as long but would have cost probably twice as much and would definitely not have brought in twice as many guests).

- Minimal effort and expenditure on theming and the overall experience. They have decided that that isn't the priority for their target market.

I doubt Universal would catch up in terms of thrilling rides and rollercoasters for at least a decade or more and their attractions are more likely to have a broader appeal to the whole family.

Chessington might be more at risk of losing guests as its target market is more likely to overlap with Universal.

 

[owenstreet7]

I think Thorpe Park will be fine. It will still be able to market itself as the most 'thrilling' park in the UK. I imagine future major attractions there will be on the scale of Hyperia i.e.

- Mostly targeted at teenagers and adults looking for thrilling rides.

- Decent return on investment by building something highly marketable without going overboard (it could have been twice as long but would have cost probably twice as much and would definitely not have brought in twice as many guests).

- Minimal effort and expenditure on theming and the overall experience. They have decided that that isn't the priority for their target market.

I doubt Universal would catch up in terms of thrilling rides and rollercoasters for at least a decade or more and their attractions are more likely to have a broader appeal to the whole family.

Chessington might be more at risk of losing guests as its target market is more likely to overlap with Universal.

I personally think Thorpe will be fine

It's main focus is to be focusing on thrills which they are in a unique position.

Chessington will be fine as it's got the zoo however would need to potentially diversify into a more wide appeal market and offer some thrilling attractions.

Both of the above parks focus very much on regional visitors.

Legoland is unlikely to be affected as it is it's own thing.

Alton Towers is the one I'm most concerned about. It is a multi stay park in the middle of nowhere and that is what puts the park at a disadvantage.

To a UK or International guest, the choice between Universal which you can get to easily from London and the airports or Alton Towers which you have to pay an arm and a leg to get to by taxi. Most people will choose Universal unless Alton Towers substantially invests in a service to get to park from a local town or the airport. I'm saying this thinking what an international tourist would think on planning an Alton Towers trip.

I am genuinely curious on how Blackpool will get on though

 

[Matt N]

I personally think Thorpe will be fine

It's main focus is to be focusing on thrills which they are in a unique position.

Chessington will be fine as it's got the zoo however would need to potentially diversify into a more wide appeal market and offer some thrilling attractions.

Both of the above parks focus very much on regional visitors.

Legoland is unlikely to be affected as it is it's own thing.

Alton Towers is the one I'm most concerned about. It is a multi stay park in the middle of nowhere and that is what puts the park at a disadvantage.

To a UK or International guest, the choice between Universal which you can get to easily from London and the airports or Alton Towers which you have to pay an arm and a leg to get to by taxi. Most people will choose Universal unless Alton Towers substantially invests in a service to get to park from a local town or the airport. I'm saying this thinking what an international tourist would think on planning an Alton Towers trip.

I am genuinely curious on how Blackpool will get on though

I agree with your overall take about Alton being most at risk, but what I would say is that Alton Towers is very different from Universal in that they don't target the international tourist demographic at all. Alton Towers' visitor base is almost wholly domestic, and outside of enthusiasts, I'd wager that the number of foreign visitors to Alton Towers is very, very low. I don't see Universal's entry into the UK market changing this.

Many domestic visitors won't necessarily have an issue with Alton Towers having poor public transport links, either; the vast majority of Alton's guests arrive by car, and most domestic guests will probably travel by car.

Universal, on the other hand, will be actively going after those international visitors. They'll compete more with the likes of Disneyland Paris than with any of the current UK theme parks in this regard. This might result in them having a higher percentage of guests coming to the park via public transport.

 

[TedShatner10]

I know many will argue that Merlin will not do this but then again given how we've seen nothing from Chessington this year and no real concrete plan other than the hotel that may or may not be built going forward never mind the poor upkeep of the place which admittedly is seen in all the Merlin parks, but it does look to be not in a good place compared to the others.

Having been to both Legoland Windsor and Paultons Park within a short space of time between each other, while the former park looked more aged and unkempt in places, I still think the toilet facilities and rubbish bin attendance, etc, was about equal with Paultons' high standards realistically, with Merlin corporate likely now aware of the increasingly poor reputation it cultivated all through the 2010s and rushing around like maniacs to stop their parks falling to pieces.

And with Paultons Park now a rising power, Drayton Manor run by a French multinational, and Universal Studios a huge storm on the horizon, they seem to be in panic mode (when their upper management is getting shuffled and they're running an oddly timed, massive PR/advertising campaign).

Alton Towers, Chessington World of Adventures, and Thorpe Park are all not in some mortal peril of eventually closing down by the 2030s or an international laughing stock, but paid the price of Merlin essentially resting on its laurels by the late 00s/early 10s (and despite Merlin's issues, it's still the 3rd biggest theme park/amusement company behind Disney and Comcast, with Disney by the early to mid 2020s accused of similar problems of overcharging, cutting too many corners, and having a familiar issue of their supposed flagship Florida resort showing its age).

 

[Squiggs]

Many domestic visitors won't necessarily have an issue with Alton Towers having poor public transport links, either; the vast majority of Alton's guests arrive by car, and most domestic guests will probably travel by car.

Many potential domestic visitors already have an issue with Alton Towers having poor public transportation. The vast majority of Alton's guest arrive by car, but that's partially because there's so few other viable options.

It will certainly be the case that the current domestic visitors won't necessarily have an issue with the poor public transportation, but that's because anyone for whom it is a problem are already excluded because they can't get there. Alton Towers' visitor numbers are effectively throttled by their lack of public transportation. And I would imagine it is actually putting rather a dint in their potential profits.

 

[TedShatner10]

But investing in a dedicated "shuttle" bus service is something hard to do in the UK for some reason, what with the hyper financialisation that blinded & hobbled Merlin Entertainments Limited for too long; a disease that eats into big companies that are very successful for a long time.

Look at what's happening to the very dominant Walt Disney Company if you paid attention, because ever since their middle management and marketing midwits had more say, they decided to retire the Magical Express shuttle service back in 2022 and made many other penny wise, pound foolish decisions in the upkeep and expansion of their US theme parks, reminiscent of Merlin's mismanagement practices (and it's now taking a visible toll on WDW and WDL; they too are facing the prospect of Comcast eating their lunch with their highly ambitious Universal Studios park expansions combined with more pro-consumer policies).

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

But investing in a dedicated "shuttle" bus service is something hard to do in the UK for some reason, what with the hyper financialisation that blinded & hobbled Merlin Entertainments Limited for too long; a disease that eats into big companies that are very successful for a long time.

Look at what's happening to the very dominant Walt Disney Company if you paid attention, because ever since their middle management and marketing midwits had more say, they decided to retire the Magical Express shuttle service back in 2022 and made many other penny wise, pound foolish decisions in the upkeep and expansion of their US theme parks, reminiscent of Merlin's mismanagement practices (and it's now taking a visible toll on WDW and WDL; they too are facing the prospect of Comcast eating their lunch with their highly ambitious Universal Studios park expansions combined with more pro-consumer policies).

Which train station do you propose running a shuttle service from? You've said bus, so I presume singular.

Stoke-on-Trent would make the most sense, being on a major railway line. It's a 32 minute drive from Alton Towers, without traffic. A clean circuit would take just over an hour, and that's not leaving anytime for embarking or disembarking. Two busses would give you a 32 minute circuit, presuming no time for embarking and disembarking.

A standard bus can sit around 40 people, which isn't great for throughput. You'd need 6 busses to get a bus around every 10 minutes on the route, with a capacity of 240 people per hour, going from the station to the park.

Moving away from Alton Towers for a moment though. You've said that "investing in a dedicated "shuttle" bus service is something hard to do in the UK for some reason", followed by some comments about Merlin yadayadayada. Merlin operate a dedicated shuttle bus service to Thorpe Park. Whilst I too like having my cake and eating it too, you can't quite have this one.

 

[Bert2theSpark]

If they wanted a shuttle bus service with high capacity, they could always use double deckers which can hold upto 75 people a bus. It wouldn't make much sense to go for additional capacity from Stoke Station as it only has two platforms, if they wanted a frequent enough service you'd run it from Stafford or Derby as they serve a wider range of destinations.

It's weird because Towers emerged specifically from the growing car culture between the 50s and the 90s. Blackpool, Drayton, Thorpe, Legoland and soon to be Universal (EDIT: the Universal site already provides better public transport than Towers...) are much more centrally located. Even Towers' original sister park Trentham Gardens is much better located. Weirdly how Towers is largely compared to European theme parks, but when it comes to commuting it shares a lot with its American counterparts.

I'm sure more can to done to make Towers easily accessible without cars, but I'd doubt they'd ever develop more than 10-15% of visitors on public transport, excluding coach packages and school trips.

 

[owenstreet7]

Many potential domestic visitors already have an issue with Alton Towers having poor public transportation. The vast majority of Alton's guest arrive by car, but that's partially because there's so few other viable options.

It will certainly be the case that the current domestic visitors won't necessarily have an issue with the poor public transportation, but that's because anyone for whom it is a problem are already excluded because they can't get there. Alton Towers' visitor numbers are effectively throttled by their lack of public transportation. And I would imagine it is actually putting rather a dint in their potential profits.

I completely agree with this, the visitor numbers are effectively limited by the lack of public transport options. I'd say it is a no brainer for Merlin to look at this as the UK's biggest theme park.

Most people come by car but that's because the park isn't easily accessible any other way.

I personally think that Universal may make this situation worse in my view.

Which train station do you propose running a shuttle service from? You've said bus, so I presume singular.

Stoke-on-Trent would make the most sense, being on a major railway line. It's a 32 minute drive from Alton Towers, without traffic. A clean circuit would take just over an hour, and that's not leaving anytime for embarking or disembarking. Two busses would give you a 32 minute circuit, presuming no time for embarking and disembarking.

A standard bus can sit around 40 people, which isn't great for throughput. You'd need 6 busses to get a bus around every 10 minutes on the route, with a capacity of 240 people per hour, going from the station to the park.

Moving away from Alton Towers for a moment though. You've said that "investing in a dedicated "shuttle" bus service is something hard to do in the UK for some reason", followed by some comments about Merlin yadayadayada. Merlin operate a dedicated shuttle bus service to Thorpe Park. Whilst I too like having my cake and eating it too, you can't quite have this one.

Personally, I'd say either Stoke on Trent or Uttoxeter as potential options if the park was to look at something like this. Nottingham, Stafford or Derby could be options as well.

It would definitely need multiple buses to make it worthwhile and frequent especially if coming from further away from Uttoxeter.

I believe Thorpe Park's service is 3 buses at a time. I'd say the service is very similar to how it is run at Phantasialand or Europa Park and is very well used (even if overcrowded often) including by staff.

Both Thorpe Park and Phantasialand's service is as busy as one another when leaving the park

 

[rob666]

Not that this has anything to do with Universal, but once again, I make the same point I make every year.
There are a great many local coach companies who put on coach trips to the Towers every summer holidays, and often in the earlier school holidays, and some at scarefest too.
This is how the vast majority of non car owners visit the Towers...year in, year out, for decades...with few issues.
This is already the provision for those without a car, for a great many people in urban areas.
Because of its location in our transport network, there are no cheap, easy efficient methods of transport to the Towers.
It costs, in terms of capital investment and labour...neither cheap or easy in a peak flow early/late transport situation like the Towers, everybody wants transporting in the morning and evening, so the resources are unused for the vast majority of the day, and half of the year.
But in case it hasn't been noticed, they have been getting on very well without such additional services for quite a while now.

 

[owenstreet7]

Not that this has anything to do with Universal, but once again, I make the same point I make every year.
There are a great many local coach companies who put on coach trips to the Towers every summer holidays, and often in the earlier school holidays, and some at scarefest too.
This is how the vast majority of non car owners visit the Towers...year in, year out, for decades...with few issues.
This is already the provision for those without a car, for a great many people in urban areas.
Because of its location in our transport network, there are no cheap, easy efficient methods of transport to the Towers.
It costs, in terms of capital investment and labour...neither cheap or easy in a peak flow early/late transport situation like the Towers, everybody wants transporting in the morning and evening, so the resources are unused for the vast majority of the day, and half of the year.
But in case it hasn't been noticed, they have been getting on very well without such additional services for quite a while now.

Good points, although definitely a factor that would hit Towers more so once Universal comes in so certainly has it's place here.

The UK's current largest theme park should ideally be better connected in my view and the fact that the likes of Europa Park are better connected could be considered rather embarrassing... I wouldn't agree that coaches should be the primary option for people without cars especially in a day and age of sustainability.

Exciting times though as Universal will be fantastic for the UK domestically and internationally. I stand by that Universal will really give Merlin a run for their money.

 

[TedShatner10]

Moving away from Alton Towers for a moment though. You've said that "investing in a dedicated "shuttle" bus service is something hard to do in the UK for some reason", followed by some comments about Merlin yadayadayada. Merlin operate a dedicated shuttle bus service to Thorpe Park. Whilst I too like having my cake and eating it too, you can't quite have this one.

Well it is pretty mortifying that Thorpe Park, Chessington, and Legoland are generally better connected to the motorway and public tranaport, all being in London's orbit - even Paultons Park is similarily well connected by being adjacent to Southhampton (also I spotted a stop for a dedicated bus route on the way in).

Alton Towers' main debilitation for opening up wider routes seems to be the patchwork of farmland and hamlets around the long-ish, narrow-ish road that links the park resort to the outside world.

But at the same time all of Merlin's parks are in their well established nichés. To weather a Universal Studios on their doorstep is to play to their existing strengths, expand more on their potentials, and run a bit more smoothly than they did in the 2010s (when Alton Towes mostly stagnated, aside from the Wicker Man).

 

[Matt.GC]

Those suction tubes like in Futurama is what's needed. Jump in one at a local train station and spat out at the entrance plaza.

 

[rob666]

I stand by my cable cars from the motorway services direct, from M1 and M6

 

[flyingguitar]

considering we now have artists impressions of the resort which looks pretty good, I think AT will start putting money into bringing the standard of their park up (improving theming to the level of FV around the park) and adding some rides (such as project horizon) as I think it could impact alton if they are not ready (if univerasal is £100, but AT is £40 and a similar drive (both are like 2 hours from bham) families may skip AT to go to universal the year after if they think it is more worth the money (considering how late universal and disney stays open you may get a suprisingly close price per hour depending on when you go to AT)

 

[Bert2theSpark]

This all depends on what Blackstone wants to do, if they want to make Merlin public again, then they’re going to prep the company for a public listing using the same methods when they’ve brought theme park chains before.

Say to go public again amidst all of the turmoil in the financial markets takes 2-3 years, that only gives Merlin a couple of years to prep for Universal. That’s the timeline of one major addition? I can’t see Merlin having a prepared long-term response where significant capital is planned over the medium term, it’ll be business as usual for Merlin. If they see a multiplier effect from Universal, great. However if they see attendance decline then it’ll only change once they see the data.

Six years isn’t a lot of time in the grand scale of the theme park industry, I feel like we’re going to see more co-ordinated responses from parks like Pleasure Beach, Looping Group and Paulton’s because they have relative stability about their future direction under their ownership model.

 

[Ash]

The first thing I’d be doing is making major noise at the government about why a UK business hasn’t had the same support as an American business.

This would/should lead to the following:

1) Infrastructure improvements for Merlin Parks
- The bypass again looked at from the A50 at Alton
- Chessington getting a dedicated station just beyond Chessington south station (not even a mile) with a connection to the park.
- Alton station reopened and Stoke to Leekbrook junction approved for reopening giving the park mainline access at Stoke.
- Dedicated sliproads off the M3 for Thorpe

In terms of park priorities I’d be looking at:
Chessington:
- Get the water park built at Chessington
- Purchase Chessington Garden centre as possible location of small second gate

Thorpe:
- Build and RMC at Thorpe on beyond Swarm island
- Build the new permanent hotel at Thorpe
- Remove rumba rapids and Storm Surge for a new major dark ride and new flat ride respectively

Alton:
- Install covered flat ride in X sector mid 2026
- 2027: Start PH. Install new flat in Dark Forest.
- 2028: Open PH. Start meadows car park development.
- 2029: Refurb monorail. Redevelop dungeons.
- 2030: Remove Rita. Announce second gate - BBC Studios on Air car park. New flying theatre on old MMM North site.
- 2031: Start SW9. Start second gate.
- 2032: SW9 Opens
- 2035: Second gate opens