UK politics general discussion

[Jonathan]

Paul Brand from ITV has said this morning that Sir Graham Brady is expected to make an announcement on a VoNC this morning.

 

[rob666]

Rule changes though.
He changes the rules more often than my wife changes her mind.

 

[pluk]

The biggest problem for the tories booting Boris is the lack of anyone even vaguely respected by the public to replace him. How's this for a list of unvotables?

Who are the main contenders to replace Boris Johnson?

We take a look at Tory ministers jostling for top job with ratings out of 10 on chances of success

www.theguardian.com

When Liz Truss is your brightest candidate you know you are screwed. If the other options are even less likely to win votes in an election maybe they collectively decide they're better off keeping him in?

 

[Matt N]

Perhaps an underdog candidate, like Tom Tugenhandt or Penny Mordaunt, might win? Some of these are said to have a chance; Mordaunt in particular is being cited as a “unity” candidate.

 

[Alsty]

It's happened. Vote of no confidence today.

 

[Craig]

I suspect a lot of MPs who are in those seats that are likely to go to Labour/Lib Dems are now stuck with what to do. They know he's finished - but they're now likely tossing up what it means for their careers. Keep him and you've still got a job until the next election (whenever that may be), but you're likely to then be out the door. Get rid now, end up with a new leader in and take the gamble of a likely sooner general election, but on the selling point that a new leader means a new start for the party.

I saw the document in support of him floating around this morning (included below) - lots of underlining going on! The statement that a vote for him will allow them to move on from these "distractions" is laughable. We've heard that line so many times with this government, and each time it's not happened. But the fact is that no confidence votes always end up being the beginning of the end for a Tory leader, whether they're won or lost. Winning the vote doesn't put the issues to bed, it simply prolongs the inevitable.


I do think it's almost certain that he'll survive this vote, and that stops him from facing another for the next 12 months. They could amend the rules to bring it sooner, but a recent vote to shorten it to 6 months fell short of a majority. The question will be how many people vote against him. With 170 ish MPs 'on the payroll' and receiving salaries from the government, they are ultimately the kingmakers in this - and the result will depend on how many (if any!) end up voting against Boris Johnson.

There was an interesting letter posted by one MP, Jesse Norman. He's actually the husband of Kate Bingham, who chaired the UK's vaccine taskforce, the rollout which is listed as a big factor in wanting to keep the PM in power. It's a pretty brutal summary of the issues with Boris Johnson, and well worth a read.

 

[Matt N]

I’m not sure that a Boris victory is as much of a dead cert as many make out.

For some idea, when Theresa May had a vote of no confidence, around 200 MPs supported her and around 110 voted against her. I know that Johnson has 50 more MPs than Theresa May had, but proportionally speaking, May had around 2/3 of Conservative MPs supporting her and around 1/3 voting against her. And at the time, I remember people were shocked at how few MPs supported her.

In the polls, Boris Johnson is currently less popular than Theresa May was at her lowest popularity level, and what Boris has done to warrant a no confidence vote is arguably generating a lot more public backlash than what Theresa May did to warrant her confidence vote and eventual resignation.

Boris Johnson is getting booed at public events, comedians are cracking jokes at his expense to an overwhelmingly positive response, and I know that a lot of people have totally lost faith in him after Partygate. Theresa May never had that kind of overwhelming public hate directed towards her; yes, she wasn’t the most popular, but I don’t think she was ever hated as much as Boris has been since Partygate.

With that in mind; if I were a Conservative MP, I’d be quite worried about the future if he were still in power. Even looking at the issue purely from the standpoint of the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects; I think they would be far better under another leader. While Boris is still in power, Starmer or whoever is leading Labour can milk Partygate for all it’s worth in their election campaigns. They can’t do that if a new leader is put into place, because they have no responsibility for it.

And that’s before you even tread the whole ethical minefield involved with these events…

 

[jon81uk]

Don't forget Theresa May survived the vote and yet still quit as leader three months later.
I don't think it is likely that Boris Johnson will do the same, but a vote of confidence now doesn't mean we are stuck with him for 12 months, things can change.

 

[Craig]

I agree I think they would do better under a new leader, but there's very few willing to put their hat into the ring at the moment. In addition, there's so much that's an issue in the country at the moment such as cost of living, airport issues, Ukraine war and actually making good of Brexit. The general convention is now new leader=general election, and I think the fear among MPs will be that there's just not enough time to make good of those issues and repair the drop in the polls that they've suffered recently.

For many MPs, they're likely out the door whatever is done - even if an election was in 2024 or 2024. They're the ones who I feel will end up voting for him to remain, along with the new intakes from the 2017/2019 intake who will inevitably have a dangling carrot of ministerial roles offered in exchange for voting for him.

Don't forget Theresa May survived the vote and yet still quit as leader three months later.
I don't think it is likely that Boris Johnson will do the same, but a vote of confidence now doesn't mean we are stuck with him for 12 months, things can change.

And yup, this is my point that whatever happens he's done for. How quickly that demise is will depend on how heavy the votes against him are. An interesting quote from one Jacob Rees-Mogg back when Theresa May won her leadership contest after 1/3 of Tory MPs voted against her...

 

[Matt N]

In a potentially explosive development, Boris Johnson’s anti-corruption tsar John Penrose has stepped down. He stated that the PM has broken the ministerial code and called upon him to resign: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...on-confidence-vote-john-penrose-b2094769.html

 

[Craig]

In a potentially explosive development, Boris Johnson’s anti-corruption tsar John Penrose has stepped down. He stated that the PM has broken the ministerial code and called upon him to resign: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...on-confidence-vote-john-penrose-b2094769.html

Ouch! It's things like this that prove that a simple vote tonight doesn't draw a line under everything that's happened as his supporters keep stating. It's not going to just go away, so it's a case of whether they want to bring an end to it now or later.

 

[Alsty]

Even if he wins the confidence vote, it's still damaging. Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher both won their confidence votes but were ultimately ousted. Both were signficantly weakened after the vote.

I've heard talk that if Boris Johnson loses he might call for a general election. This could be a threat to his backbenchers not to vote him out, otherwise he'll take them out in a blaze of glory too... interesting time ahead.

 

[JAperson]

Whether Boris wins or loses this is very damaging, it shows that a good portion of his majority no longer support him, which in most governments would cause major problems but Boris' majority is massive so it may well be less damaging then with Theresa May. I think the vote will be on a knife edge of whether he survives this vote, I think he will win it by a very small majority which is some ways is the best thing for labour supporters in that he's very unlikely to win a general election in said state.

I've heard talk that if Boris Johnson loses he might call for a general election. This could be a threat to his backbenchers not to vote him out, otherwise he'll take them out in a blaze of glory too... interesting time ahead.

It's a very clever threat, especially as a lot of his MP's know they are going to loose there seats, especially those in constituencies that lent there vote to the Tories to get Brexit done (well screw the country over is a better phrase). It may well save him which is I suppose the game of politics, however realistically it could still be quite close.

 

[Matt N]

I've heard talk that if Boris Johnson loses he might call for a general election. This could be a threat to his backbenchers not to vote him out, otherwise he'll take them out in a blaze of glory too... interesting time ahead.

Would Boris even be able to do this? Surely he’d want for a Conservative leadership contest to happen first, so that whoever stands is the new leader rather than himself, and then the authority to do such a thing would surely boil down to the new Conservative leader rather than Boris, no? How would he actually be able to call an election after losing a confidence vote?

Also, I don’t think Boris would want to risk his party’s majority like that. Even if he’s voted out, the Conservative Party are still in a fairly powerful position with their current majority, and the current optics of a hypothetical general election are very much stacked against them. I don’t think Boris would want to commit that kind of political suicide; I’m sure he still cares about his colleagues and doesn’t want them to lose their jobs, as well as his party’s healthy majority.

 

[JAperson]

Would Boris even be able to do this? Surely he’d want for a Conservative leadership contest to happen first, so that whoever stands is the new leader rather than himself, and then the authority to do such a thing would surely boil down to the new Conservative leader rather than Boris, no? How would he actually be able to call an election after losing a confidence vote?

Also, I don’t think Boris would want to risk his party’s majority like that. Even if he’s voted out, the Conservative Party are still in a fairly powerful position with their current majority, and the current optics of a hypothetical general election are very much stacked against them. I don’t think Boris would want to commit that kind of political suicide; I’m sure he still cares about his colleagues and doesn’t want them to lose their jobs, as well as his party’s healthy majority.

I think what he's doing Matt is threatening it, he's saying to his MP's who are in there with a slim majority, I'll call a General election and you will loose your job, you loose your power and I might even be able to keep mine but if I'm going down your coming with me. He's basically threatening to pull the people who supported him down if they have the nerve to attempt to stand against him, it's a very clever political move that will likely work. I don't think Boris' doesn't cares about conservative majorities if he gets out I think he was more focused on this own power, I don't think he would care if he pulled the entire party down with him if he was going down.

 

[Alsty]

Would Boris even be able to do this? Surely he’d want for a Conservative leadership contest to happen first, so that whoever stands is the new leader rather than himself, and then the authority to do such a thing would surely boil down to the new Conservative leader rather than Boris, no? How would he actually be able to call an election after losing a confidence vote?

The Fixed-term Parliament Act was repealed this year. It reverts back to the prerogative powers, meaning the Prime Minister simply asks the Queen to call an early election. If Boris Johnson loses tonight's confidence vote then he will need to resign, but presumably he could ask for the early election before handing in his resignation.

As @JAperson says though, whether he would actually do this is another matter. It could just be a threat to try and keep people on his side.

 

[Tom]

He may win to night but on any parliamentary vote, the magic number is 40 rebels. That could be more interesting in future.

He is a great survivor though and enough people like the stupidity to the point of endearment. You can't rule out him winning another election yet in today's world.

 

[Alsty]

Boris Johnson has won the vote of confidence. 211 had confidence (58.8%), 148 did not have confidence (42.2%).

This is worse than Theresa May's performance in 2018 (63% had confidence).

It does mean things will be difficult for Boris Johnson as everybody knows over 2/5ths of his MPs have no confidence in him.

 

[John]

A worse result for Boris than I was expecting - even with no obvious candidate in line to replace him over 40% of his MPs wanted him gone. Things certainly aren't about to get easier for him

 

[Dave]

The Labour Party will be very happy tonight.