UK politics general discussion

[IanB]

I don't think they can undo the damage they have done. Appointing another Prime Minster without giving the public a say will push more voters away.

The energy cap is going to end in six months, instead of the two years, and with the number of people paying higher interest rates, its going make peoples life even harder, which is hardly going to make people want to vote for them.

If the figures are this bad now, how much worse are they going to be in another six months.

Why would any one in the conservative party want to be party leader, when they are almost certain to lose the next election.

Hopefully we wont have to wait two years for an election.

 

[Matt N]

Has anyone watched the BBC News interview with Liz Truss this evening?

I’ve just finished watching it… and I must admit that it makes for quite uncomfortable viewing.

I saw a very different side to her in that interview… there were numerous times where it looked like she was on the verge of tears, and her tone in general sounded like she was really struggling. I’m not the world’s biggest Conservative supporter by any means, but it did genuinely make me feel quite sorry for her. She also showed genuine contrition and seemed genuinely apologetic and keen to right her wrongs, which I think is really admirable.

You can say what you like about Truss’ woes arguably being self-inflicted, but I must admit that it still isn’t nice to see anybody clearly struggling like that, and I still appreciate the fact that she’s admitted her mistakes and apologised.

 

[WillPS]

I’ve always liked Electoral Calculus as an election result predictor myself… and it makes for grim reading for the Conservative Party: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

The current result shows that the Conservatives would not even be HM Opposition in a hypothetical election… Labour would hold a 364-seat majority, which is nothing shy of unprecedented.

The seat results EC predicts are:

• Labour: 507
• SNP: 52
• Conservatives: 48
• Liberal Democrats: 19
• Reform: 0
• Green: 1
• Plaid Cymru: 4
• Other: 1
• DUP: 8
• Sinn Fein: 7
• SDLP: 2
• Alliance: 1

Electoral Calculus also predicts that even in the best possible scenario for the Conservatives, they’d only win 192 seats, with Labour winning 369 seats…

This is all fun but please remember this is just spreadsheet stuff. I very much doubt the Tories would ever dip down in to double digits (in terms of seats), in reality.

 

[Craig]

Has anyone watched the BBC News interview with Liz Truss this evening?

I’ve just finished watching it… and I must admit that it makes for quite uncomfortable viewing.

I saw a very different side to her in that interview… there were numerous times where it looked like she was on the verge of tears, and her tone in general sounded like she was really struggling. I’m not the world’s biggest Conservative supporter by any means, but it did genuinely make me feel quite sorry for her. She also showed genuine contrition and seemed genuinely apologetic and keen to right her wrongs, which I think is really admirable.

You can say what you like about Truss’ woes arguably being self-inflicted, but I must admit that it still isn’t nice to see anybody clearly struggling like that, and I still appreciate the fact that she’s admitted her mistakes and apologised.

It's not nice to watch, but at the same time I have very, very little sympathy for her. At the end of the day she was given multiple opportunities throughout the leadership election circus to have interviews with multiple different outlets which she turned down. The last few weeks has confirmed that was a very conscious decision to do so because she's utterly, utterly terrible at it. It was a decision to actively mask that Truss has a complete inability to think on her feet. Pump out the talking points and you'll get by. She went into hiding knowing it was the only way for her to get into power.

Tonight's interview showed that nothing has changed - any actual attempt at empathy is completely disingenuous. The apology request was outright ignored during Friday's press conference and is only now being said not because she means it, but because she's now flailing around trying to save her premiership. A U turn on some of the most controversial parts of the mini budget was demanded ages ago, yet it was left for the pound to tank and people's mortgage rates and potential offers to go absolutely sky high. Even today, all we saw was the lazy fallback position of "but Brexit" instead of actually saying anything of worth.

As for the apology itself, it means absolutely nothing, in the same way that her proclamation that she "acted decisively" is just plain lies. There were days, weeks even when warnings were given that the level of investment was unsustainable. Warnings were given about how trickle down economics does not work and how badly it looks that the changes disproportionately helped the rich much more than the poor or even middle earners. They were warned from business leaders, financial institutions, economists, other countries and even The IMF that it was a position that's unsustainable. Opinion polls were sounding the loudest of alarms, yet it wasn't just ignored - they doubled down. Back to dirty politics, the "Anti Growth Coalition" which quickly became just a list of the majority of the planet who thought they were off their rockers. They were still only earlier today blaming "global headwinds" for the issue, when the volatility in government gilts and exchange rates is like nothing we've ever seen from an established economy like the UK.

Simply apologising for a "mistake" when you've ignored all of those warnings and already rocketed the bills of millions just doesn't cut it. She hasn't "fixed it" as she suggested in the BBC interview either, she's simply plunged people into one of the worst periods of uncertainty the vast majority of adults have ever experienced. A vote in a general election should not mean that you instantly stop listening to public feedback once you're in power, yet I'm finding it pretty astounding that there's just a complete disconnect between the government's actions and the public opinion at present.

 

[BigT]

The reality of campaigning means it would be a lot closer than the polls show, look at May’s miscalculation when Corbyn nearly sneaked in when he was miles behind in the polls.

 

[Matt N]

The reality of campaigning means it would be a lot closer than the polls show, look at May’s miscalculation when Corbyn nearly sneaked in when he was miles behind in the polls.

That is very true, but I would say that it is often said that when a new government comes to power after an election, it is mostly a case of the incumbent government losing rather than the opposition winning.

I am very aware that things could well change drastically between now and 2024 (or whenever the next election is), but given current opinion polls and widespread public backlash, even I will not deny that the current government appears to be losing the argument in a big way for the majority of the public.

I am aware that Starmer is not the most universally loved politician himself, and I do myself think that predictions of a landslide Labour victory causing an unprecedented Labour majority well into 3 figures might be premature, but I think public hatred of the incumbent government has now reached a point where many voters will likely vote Labour in at the next election no matter who is in charge simply by virtue of the fact that they’re not the current administration.

I think it all rides on whether the Conservatives can drastically change things between now and the next general election. If they make a drastic metamorphosis before the next poll, then I could see a scenario where they might win again, but if not, then I don’t think their chances look too good.

 

[Alsty]

You could argue that a general election now would be the most democratic thing to do as the divide between the government and what the electorate want is so colossal. They are not representing anybody at the moment, their policies have not been what people voted for and there's certainly no mandate for the incoming austerity (in fact, the opposite was promised... levelling up). Would austerity even be needed if they hadn't cocked up with the mini budget? Why do we have to pay for their gross incompetence?

But then in the real world, I get they have a big majority so why would they sacrifice it..?

 

[WillPS]

But then in the real world, I get they have a big majority so why would they sacrifice it..?

The only argument I can come up with as to why it might be a good idea would be to not delay the inevitable and force the opposition do the hard work of repairing the damage, rather than further damage their own reputation by inflicting that upon the electorate.

The sooner you're out the sooner you can bounce back.

It's not like the next 2 years are going to be an optimum time to do anything, so if ideological reform is your party's intention then perhaps the opposition benches are a better place to be.

(I don't fully buy in to this as a reason they might do it, I think ultimately it'll just be a question of not foisting another leader upon the electorate)

 

[Craig]

The only argument I can come up with as to why it might be a good idea would be to not delay the inevitable and force the opposition do the hard work of repairing the damage, rather than further damage their own reputation by inflicting that upon the electorate.

The sooner you're out the sooner you can bounce back.

It's not like the next 2 years are going to be an optimum time to do anything, so if ideological reform is your party's intention then perhaps the opposition benches are a better place to be.

(I don't fully buy in to this as a reason they might do it, I think ultimately it'll just be a question of not foisting another leader upon the electorate)

Yup that's the issue, at present it's almost impossible to see a single good outcome for the Tory party. They know keeping her in post is damaging and that she's unelectable, as is the party in its current state. But, install a new leader now and the calls for a general election will grow even further and likely be impossible to ignore. Call that election right now and they risk being wiped off the political map for at least half a decade. Sure you're forcing the opposition to repair the damage, but you're also handing them a very easy job of getting what they want through the Commons too.

I've seen some Tories such as Matt Hancock say they have 2 years to turn things around. Realistically, they have about 12 months at an absolute maximum before an election cycle kicks off. Yes opinion polls don't demonstrate how things are during an actual campaign, but this is a swing to an extent we've not seen for a long, long time. Some of the worst polls are yet to come, as fieldwork for much of them aside from today's was from before the press conference on Friday. 12 months is not a large amount of time when you throw in multiple recesses and looking at the sheer scale of the mountain they need to climb to get somewhere sensible. Especially when they have outright alienated such a massive spectrum of their voter base from the previous election. Even halving Labour's current opinion poll lead would hand them a massive victory at present. Would you want to risk having Liz Truss in charge for a few more months eating into that time? I wouldn't want to gamble on someone who has done so much damage in what is basically a few weeks...

Whichever option they eventually settle on will bring them years of pain regardless. The opposition parties have an absolute banquet of soundbites to dine on during an election campaign. This is not just another version of Ed Milliband's "bacongate" for the tabloids to feed off, Labour and the other opposition parties have an absolute catalogue of errors and scandals which they can flick through and suit to get the attention of pretty much every category of voter across the UK. Every single option they have at the moment will hurt them and they're all potentially equally as unpleasant as the other. They just need to settle on which one to go for - and fast.

 

[rob666]

Nobody forced Truss into politics.
Nobody made her change her own political beliefs, from central to right.
Nobody forced her into standing for prime minister.
Nobody forced her into making the most extreme political decisions in a generation.
Nobody forced her to dump all the blame on her (sheeplike) chancellor.
Nobody will force her resignation.
She brought it all on herself, through her own deliberate actions.
Zero sympathy.

 

[BigT]

Going away from Truss for a moment a quick and easy way to generate some growth is to get rid of these stupid Sunday trading laws.
In a multi cultural country why should one religious sabbath have priority over others?

 

[shakey]

The seat results EC predicts are:

• Labour: 507
• SNP: 52
• Conservatives: 48
• Liberal Democrats: 19
• Reform: 0
• Green: 1
• Plaid Cymru: 4
• Other: 1
• DUP: 8
• Sinn Fein: 7
• SDLP: 2
• Alliance: 1

Electoral Calculus also predicts that even in the best possible scenario for the Conservatives, they’d only win 192 seats, with Labour winning 369 seats…

While that remains extremely unlikely in reality, it would be the most farcicle situation in the history of UK politics if it did happen.

The official UK opposition party would be one that don't even want to be in the UK at all.

And judging by the SNP's recent announcement on plans for a Scottish pound and Scottish passports it would seem that Jimmy Cranky is intent on trashing Scotland's economy as much as Truss is intent on trashing the UK's



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Tibble]

While that remains extremely unlikely in reality, it would be the most farcicle situation in the history of UK politics if it did happen.

The official UK opposition party would be one that don't even want to be in the UK at all.

And judging by the SNP's recent announcement on plans for a Scottish pound and Scottish passports it would seem that Jimmy Cranky is intent on trashing Scotland's economy as much as Truss is intent on trashing the UK's



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

For a leader who has been claiming Scotland will return to the EU and that it is top of her list.. To be saying about a Scottish pound currency, would to me suggest they wouldn't be going straight back into the EU, as don't new countries that join the EU have to take the Euro?

 

[WillPS]

For a leader who has been claiming Scotland will return to the EU and that it is top of her list.. To be saying about a Scottish pound currency, would to me suggest they wouldn't be going straight back into the EU, as don't new countries that join the EU have to take the Euro?

No.

Many of the more recent member states don't - Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic to name a few. In theory they are supposed to adopt the currency in time but there is no hurry on that and plenty of local resistance.

Either way, ascension to the EU is far from a certainty (at least while Spain have a veto on it) and having "no currency" even temporarily was often an attack line thrown at Salmond in 2014.

 

[BigT]

Full membership of the EU and Schengen yet no borders between England and Scotland? It really is pie in the sky stuff.
As the EU have always said you can’t have your cake and eat it.

 

[Dave]

This is all fun but please remember this is just spreadsheet stuff. I very much doubt the Tories would ever dip down in to double digits (in terms of seats), in reality.

Probably not, campaigning will change the margins but what is interesting with current polls is normally when a party drops support people move into the “don’t know” catagory rather than jump ship until election season starts, which is why polls change during a campaign as people move back out of “don’t know”. Curiously this time people are actually moving into one of the other parties camps rather than don’t know.

This makes the job harder for the Tories as they first have to sow enough doubt in these voters to nudge them back into “don’t know” then have a further push to get them to vote Tory.

This is why polls are badly reported on by the press, as the actual breakdown is more complicated than gets reported.

For a leader who has been claiming Scotland will return to the EU and that it is top of her list.. To be saying about a Scottish pound currency, would to me suggest they wouldn't be going straight back into the EU, as don't new countries that join the EU have to take the Euro?

Even if they apply for membership on day 1 of independence it will take at least 5 years to achieve that goal and then they will need to start the process of aligning their monitory systems to the Euro which takes further time so they would need an interim currency regardless of their plans for EU membership.

 

[Dave]

Full membership of the EU and Schengen yet no borders between England and Scotland? It really is pie in the sky stuff.
As the EU have always said you can’t have your cake and eat it.

EU have allowed it in Ireland.

My guess is Scotland quite rightly expect rUK will have aligned more with the EU soon anyway as re-alignment is the easiest way to return economic growth so that will become easier to sort.

Although I don’t expect the UK will rejoin the EU fully it’s inevitable it will start regulatory alignment once the swivel eyes loon in the ERG land their final killer blow to the Tory party and lose power.

 

[Matt.GC]

Going away from Truss for a moment a quick and easy way to generate some growth is to get rid of these stupid Sunday trading laws.
In a multi cultural country why should one religious sabbath have priority over others?

Sunday trading laws have as much to do with religion these days as "Thalt shall not steal" has with theft laws. A rollback on these will see even more people who already work very unsociable hours on low pay forced to work even more of them.

Although USDAW is a rather toothless trade union, they argued strongly against relaxation of these laws 10 years ago when it was being discussed around the Olympics. It also hurts small local independent retailers who for many of them, having the big boys shut early and open late can make Sunday their busiest trading day.

We don't need any more races to the bottom for workers to sort out a Downing Street engineered economic crisis.

 

[BigT]

Sunday trading laws have as much to do with religion these days as "Thalt shall not steal" has with theft laws. A rollback on these will see even more people who already work very unsociable hours on low pay forced to work even more of them.

Although USDAW is a rather toothless trade union, they argued strongly against relaxation of these laws 10 years ago when it was being discussed around the Olympics. It also hurts small local independent retailers who for many of them, having the big boys shut early and open late can make Sunday their busiest trading day.

We don't need any more races to the bottom for workers to sort out a Downing Street engineered economic crisis.

Why is it always a race to the bottom? A lot of students etc. actually want to work the weekend, reducing the hours reduces the amount they can earn, I just think it’s outdated practice now this 6 hours trading only.

EU have allowed it in Ireland.

My guess is Scotland quite rightly expect rUK will have aligned more with the EU soon anyway as re-alignment is the easiest way to return economic growth so that will become easier to sort.

Although I don’t expect the UK will rejoin the EU fully it’s inevitable it will start regulatory alignment once the swivel eyes loon in the ERG land their final killer blow to the Tory party and lose power.

Is Ireland in the Schengen zone? I don’t think it is for the exact reason of the common travel area with the Uk.

 

[Dave]

Is Ireland in the Schengen zone? I don’t think it is for the exact reason of the common travel area with the Uk.

Non Schengen EU countries have data sharing agreements that don’t require passport checks at all entry points (back when we where in the EU it wasn’t uncommon to enter France without a check as the travel company had the pre-travel data).

Schengen also allows countries to do checks at the border still even if it’s a Schengen to Schengen transfer of a person so the EU can check that someone hasn’t slipped into Scotland from England if there is onward travel to Schengan.

If there is data sharing between rUK and EU most of these issues can be negotiated, the current issues are because the UK refuses to data share because they want rid of GDPR standards.