So to summarise what happened in terms of the fracking vote last night. The whips sent a message out yesterday morning stating the vote was a three line whip and would be treated as a confidence vote in the government.
We get to the debate, cue lots of angry Tory MPs kicking off that they're being forced to vote against a manifesto commitment (to not resume fracking unless it was scientifically proven as safe). Graham Stuart, Energy and Industrial Strategy Minister winding up the debate on the vote then says at the despatch box that the vote isn't a confidence matter. A Tory MP then asks him to confirm whether those who vote for the motion (as in for Labour to win) would be kicked out of the party. He's unable to answer.
We get to the vote itself, there's a big argument behind the scenes as no one now really know whether this is or isn't a confidence vote in the government anymore. People are allegedly jostled into the no lobby, the chief whip and deputy chief whip are annoyed they've been undermined and it's turned into a shambles. They kick off and apparently quit.
Labour lose the vote as expected, but many Tories are annoyed at what a shambles the whole thing was and the opposition parties all kick off at what the witnessed in the lobbies. The press start to get reactions from MPs both anonymously and on the record.
Some senior ministers are then interviewed later on. They don't really know whether it was a confidence vote or not, they also don't know whether they have a chief whip or a deputy chief whip anymore. Jacob Rees Mogg says that it was down to a juniour member of staff incorrectly advising ministers that it was no longer a confidence vote. Even seasoned Westminster journalists are looking pretty shellshocked at what the hell is going on at this point.
A few hours later, no10 confirmed that the whips are still in post and everyone is confused...
So are all of these MPs having the Tory whip removed?
I was under the impression that this vote was being seen as confidence vote in the government? And any Tory who didn’t vote No was seen as betraying the government?
So it seems everyone initially thought that they wouldn't, mainly due to the confusion about whether it was or wasn't being treated as a confidence vote in the government.
However, fast forward ot about 1:30am today (seriously!). A text was sent out by no10 to Westminster journalists:
From: https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1582894679212687360
So basically it IS being treated as a confidence vote in the government, and therefore it would appear that MPs who did not vote will now potentially lose the whip. Now this doesn't mean all 36 will, as it's probably around 15-20 people who actively did not participate in the vote. The remainder will be paired - that is, they are matched with someone who was voting for the motion as they had a valid reason for not being able to vote. Being paired means the opposing votes cancel each other out, so would make no difference to the result.
It sounds like confirming that this was a confidence vote and therefore sticking by what the whips initially set it up as was a way of them agreeing to remain in post. If Truss lost both the chief whip and deputy chief whip along with Suella Braverman earlier in the day, then it would probably have been curtains for her first thing this morning. Ultimately I don't think it makes a difference, as it's simply delaying the inevitable now. The scenes reported yesterday are beyond unprecedented, and have only served to further infuriate both MPs and the public alike.
The whole thing has been a bit of a stroke of genius from Labour. They absolutely would not win an outright motion of no confidence against the government. But by tabling the fracking motion, it allowed them to make the point that the Tories were reversing yet another manifesto commitment and to further open up divisions in the Conservative party. I don't think even in their wildest expectations did they believe it would descend into the craziness seen today though.
I was thinking Truss had bought a few weeks after Tuesday and the positive reception she was reported to have received at the meetings she had with MPs. I'd now be surprised if she lasted today, maybe the week at a push.
Maybe the lettuce will win after all...