UK politics general discussion

[pluk]

Can you cite the source on “huge numbers lying” claim?

We are barely processing any claims so curious what the source of that statement is.

The top answer on Google, which itself is debunking false reporting on the matter by The Scum, is from a few years ago with official figures that still put it as 20% of all unaccompanied child immigrants. That to me is huge numbers. Experience and logic tells me the numbers would be higher now, with the rise in OCGs expoiting people in facilitating small boat crossings and schooling people on how to successfully reach and remain in the UK as part of their 'service'.

In terms of processing claims the test is made not at the point of decision but on inital detention, and thise are obviously prrocessed as they occur. I obviously can't speak directly about any case or incident, but the process is no secret. A group (usually, rarely an individual) are stopped by police or immigration, the detainees give their details, any that state they are children but present as adult are seen immediately by local social workers trained in the Meron test used to determine age. Those deemed to be adults will be taken to detention (either straight to immigration or often police custody first awaiting paperwork and transfer to immigration), those deemed to be children will be taken by social care who look after them instead. The test is complex, but where there is a boarderline decision the is always an err on the side of caution and be treated as a child, so there is no doubt that any official number will be an under report of the number giving a flase age. No children will be trying to pass as an adult as there is nothing to be gained in that.

A freedom of information request on how frequently the Merton test is carried out and how many fail the test could be an interesting one.

And that's not necessarily to put 'blame' (that doesn't feel like the right word) on those making false claims of age. Someone desperate, especially those exploited by OCGs, can be expected to desperate things to achieve what they feel they need.

 

[Squiggs]

The top answer on Google, which itself is debunking false reporting on the matter by The Scum, is from a few years ago with official figures that still put it as 20% of all unaccompanied child immigrants. That to me is huge numbers.

That's one of the issue with percentages when discussing topics like this, they can seem like huge numbers, no matter how large the figure actually is. My instinct is always to try and seek out the number behind the percentage.

As such, the factsheet the government put out relating to the Illegal Migration Bill in July stated that in 2022 there were 5,242 unaccompanied asylum-seeking children, so if the 20% conversion rate still stands that would be 1,048. Of course, over a thousand is not nothing, but it doesn't feel like a huge number to me in the grand scheme of things.
Even taking into account that, as you say, the number is likely to have been higher in 2022, it is likely still on this side of 1,500. The factsheet doesn't give this statistic for individual years, but the other figures provided wouldn't allow an envelope for a shift bigger than that.

 

[pluk]

That's one of the issue with percentages when discussing topics like this, they can seem like huge numbers, no matter how large the figure actually is. My instinct is always to try and seek out the number behind the percentage.

As such, the factsheet the government put out relating to the Illegal Migration Bill in July stated that in 2022 there were 5,242 unaccompanied asylum-seeking children, so if the 20% conversion rate still stands that would be 1,048. Of course, over a thousand is not nothing, but it doesn't feel like a huge number to me in the grand scheme of things.
Even taking into account that, as you say, the number is likely to have been higher in 2022, it is likely still on this side of 1,500. The factsheet doesn't give this statistic for individual years, but the other figures provided wouldn't allow an envelope for a shift bigger than that.

I don't think the data can be used meaningfully that way.
- the percentage is from years ago, it probably won't be the same now.
- the number of unaccompanied minors will be the ones left after those claiming but not accepted will be stripped out of the data, so it'll be a percentage above that, not of it.
- all the data relates to 'unaccompanied minors', I have no idea why that distinction is used but there's plenty of accompanied minors seeking asylum too who's identity is not known and age not established.

This is a frustrating conversation for me, I know what I've experienced and it's not something I feel I can speak freely about.

Either way, my only real point was that people lie to claim asylum which multiple people thought was an outrageous claim but is an obvious truth. That's it. As ever I find myself having to say I'm not a tory, I don't support this shower, etc etc. But people with passionate views either way should keep a grip on reality.

 

[Dave]

I don't think the data can be used meaningfully that way.
- the percentage is from years ago, it probably won't be the same now.
- the number of unaccompanied minors will be the ones left after those claiming but not accepted will be stripped out of the data, so it'll be a percentage above that, not of it.
- all the data relates to 'unaccompanied minors', I have no idea why that distinction is used but there's plenty of accompanied minors seeking asylum too who's identity is not known and age not established.

This is a frustrating conversation for me, I know what I've experienced and it's not something I feel I can speak freely about.

Either way, my only real point was that people lie to claim asylum which multiple people thought was an outrageous claim but is an obvious truth. Thays it. As ever I find myself having to say I'm not a tory, I don't support this shower, etc etc. But people with extreme views either way should keep a grip on reality.

An accompanied minor is processed based on the adult seeking asylum so if they fail the child is returned with them as they have “care”. Therefore the age of the child is somewhat irrelevant.

Unaccompanied minors have no “care” therefore you have to judge both their asylum claim and their safeguarding needs when making a decision.

 

[Slugjc]

Either way, my only real point was that people lie to claim asylum which multiple people thought was an outrageous claim but is an obvious truth. That's it. As ever I find myself having to say I'm not a tory, I don't support this shower, etc etc. But people with passionate views either way should keep a grip on reality.

Whatever your view on this relevant to conversation. If people call you a Tory wool then that is on them not you.

The migrant problem is an issue for any country. Always pesky foreign types trying to come and live of the system. How dare they flee persecution

But on the current climate. The Tory's know that this is only dog they have in the fight. Anytime they feel like the polls are slipping, quick someone make a speech and get the daily mail onside. It's not just a new phenomenon. Age old problem for centuries. The mail had an issue with Jews fleeing nazi Germany for Christ sake.

England for the English is easiest policy to sell.

 

[pluk]

An accompanied minor is processed based on the adult seeking asylum so if they fail the child is returned with them as they have “care”. Therefore the age of the child is somewhat irrelevant.

Unaccompanied minors have no “care” therefore you have to judge both their asylum claim and their safeguarding needs when making a decision.

That's sort of correct, but assumes the unaccompanied minor is in a legitimate family unit and ignores the end result.
It's a tactic I have seen in person where a couple of much older people say a group of less old but not juveniles are their children.

Just because an asylum seeker presents as a family unit is irrelivant. Care for that person and appropriate support still lies with the state, even if it can effectively go through those claiming to be the guardians. This area actually requires much more, not less, scrutiny and intervention as it is part of how some human traffic and modern slavery operates.

In short, if someone is giving a false age they are giving a false age. I don’t know why we wouldn't want that to be considered in the data.

 

[rob666]

There is also the matter of those that manage to arrive out of the spotlight, do not claim asylum, and vanish into the slave/black economy in areas that traditionally have accepted immigration over generations, and know how to integrate those without papers.
There are many in my home town who work in the cheap rag trade for half the minimum wage, with no tax or insurance, and have done so for decades.

 

[Dave]

That's sort of correct, but assumes the unaccompanied minor is in a legitimate family unit and ignores the end result.
It's a tactic I have seen in person where a couple of much older people say a group of less old but not juveniles are their children.

Just because an asylum seeker presents as a family unit is irrelivant. Care for that person and appropriate support still lies with the state, even if it can effectively go through those claiming to be the guardians. This area actually requires much more, not less, scrutiny and intervention as it is part of how some human traffic and modern slavery operates.

In short, if someone is giving a false age they are giving a false age. I don’t know why we wouldn't want that to be considered in the data.

That’s probably true but I doubt it will change the reality much.

Fact is the majority of applications are not based on age or sexuality, they are based on the fact they are coming from a war torn country and have family in this country. Blaming it on the children or the gays or women is just a distraction technique to avoid talking about the Tory’s abject failure in managing the problem.

 

[pluk]

Fact is the majority of applications are not based on age or sexuality, they are based on the fact they are coming from a war torn country and have family in this country. Blaming it on the children or the gays or women is just a distraction technique to avoid talking about the Tory’s abject failure in managing the problem.

Yep, I never said anything remotely to the contrary.

Where there is fraud and legitimately failed application we need to be able to deal with that though, otherwise there is no system at all.

 

[AT86]

So it has ‘leaked’ that HS2 to Manchester has indeed been cancelled whilst the Tory party hold their conference in that very city.

The Conservative mayor of West Mids has held an impromptu press conference opposing the governments decision, that they still won’t publicly confirm.

It’s going well then

 

[Thameslink Rail]

It's been funny round here because we've got the Nadine Dorries by-election in two weeks and Rishi was interviewed on local radio. It did not go well for him, he tried to spin the previous farce into a reason why the people of Mid Beds should vote for their current Police and Crime Commissioner Festus Akinbusoye to be their MP. He claimed that Festus has been "working his socks off" despite the fact that he has done virtually no campaigning himself and has repeatedly refused to be interviewed. Unfortunately the polls suggest this may be a Tory hold because of an opposition vote split between Labour and the Lib Dems. Personally I prefer the Monster Raving Looney candidate and her policies: https://www.loonyparty.com/2521/8282/mid-bed-minx/

 

[Alsty]

It looks like the Conservatives have completely fractured tonight as Liz Truss has launched a "Growth Group", flanked by 60 other Tories (who presumably suffer from amnesia). Her plans include scrapping inheritance tax, to build 500,000 homes and resume fracking.

This means Sunak potentially no longer has a working majority in the Commons.

Rishi Sunak’s Commons majority in peril as 60 Tories join Liz Truss group

Growth Group now same size as government’s majority, as it urges PM to cut taxes and resume fracking

www.theguardian.com

 

[Matt N]

Is the “Growth Group” a new political party, or is it simply a new faction of the Conservative Party, like the ERG?

It’s dangerous territory for Sunak either way, though. 60 people joining the group of Sunak’s direct opponent in the leadership contest and someone who has been quite heavily critical of his plans is not a good sign for his authority over the Conservative Party.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

Is the “Growth Group” a new political party, or is it simply a new faction of the Conservative Party, like the ERG?

It appears to be a new faction, its members have not left the party although they could be a pain in the rear for Rishi.

 

[John_P]

Can't believe the gall of someone like Liz Truss, promoted so far above her ability she quit as prime minister after about 40 days. And now she's going around lecturing people about how she'd do things if she was running the country. When last time all she's memorable for is meeting the Queen the day before she died and then adding £100s a month to everyones mortgages.

 

[Matt.GC]

It looks like the Conservatives have completely fractured tonight as Liz Truss has launched a "Growth Group", flanked by 60 other Tories (who presumably suffer from amnesia). Her plans include scrapping inheritance tax, to build 500,000 homes and resume fracking.

This means Sunak potentially no longer has a working majority in the Commons.

Rishi Sunak’s Commons majority in peril as 60 Tories join Liz Truss group

Growth Group now same size as government’s majority, as it urges PM to cut taxes and resume fracking

www.theguardian.com

Who would have thought that to get the "real" news I'd have to come on here?

I need to read up on this, as what you say is Indeed extremely interesting and important for the next General Election.

If this crazy woman has created a Thatcher Max group based on 1980's economic theory (who I always assumed were the real face of this party anyway) and as many as 60 (currently) serving MP's have joined this shoulder pad wearing, Filofax brandishing, mulet fan club, then the consequences for Sunak could be disastrous.

We all witnessed how the ERG frustrated the party for decades before they played a part in destroying the governments of Major, Cameron and May. Although I'm sure some of the usual ERG suspects have signed up to this Retrosqaud, I can't imagine that this brand of politics will play well in the old Red Wall seats where the ERG managed to make their stand. Being Eurosceptic and believing in crazed capitalism are 2 very different things and I can't imagine the Brexit voting Sunderland constituents are going to vote for more 1980's economics involving the further dismantling of working class communities, in conjunction with tax cuts for the rich.

The third way solution Sunak seems so far to be going for is just adopting a more mature and responsible version of Johnson-esque populism. The usual stuff that the Tories reach out for when they've lost credibility. Bashing foreigners, environmentalists, "Woke", blaming benefit claimants, etc. The usual stuff but with added stuff he and his spin doctors just made up. But now they can't blame Europe anymore and can't be seen to be pandering to internal calls to be soft on the rich, so this presents a real problem for them.

Disunited parties don't win elections. I was a Labour member when Corbyn's bully boys tried to cleanse the party of anyone who didn't agree with their ideology 100%. They got destroyed as a result. Starmer may be a very poor public performer, and Labour have some serious communication problems.

But it seems like the best course of action right now is to sit tight and eat a bag of Doritos whilst the Tories year themselve apart. For the first time, I'm actually starting to understand why Labour aren't doing much. They'll have a terrible inheritance from this government, and there's little point in pretending things aren't as bad as they are.

Every reason for Sunak to put them out of their misery earlier. Disaster of a conference yet again this year for the Tories, with right wingers jumping into factions, talk of tax cuts whilst the public finances are broken, the Sword of Damocles that is the pending cancellation of HS2 hanging above their heads, promises of living wage increases whilst economic and productivity figures have been sat curdling around the bottom of the toilet bowl for 13 years.

I wouldn't want to be Prime Minister this time next year if I was him.

 

[Slugjc]

Think cold war Steve has just nailed it again on twitter.

 

[Benzin]

She also stands on the tails of guide dogs.

Hard to believe how far right the world is going atm.

 

[Matt N]

In the midst of HS2 being cancelled north of Birmingham, it would appear that Sunak announced two interesting policy ideas at the Conservative conference. These were:

• A method of materialising his plans to see Maths and English taught to 18 has finally been devised. A Levels and T Levels will be replaced by the Advanced British Standard (ABS) from 2033 onwards. This will entail students doing 5 subjects on average rather than the current 3, including a compulsory component of English and Maths, and spending at least 195 hours more with a teacher during their post-16 education than they do currently. Plans for how this will take shape are to be strategised in the coming months, and as a means of getting more teachers to make the scheme possible, the government is giving teachers of “key subjects” a £30,000 tax-free bonus over the first 5 years of their career.
• A plan to eventually phase out smoking in England has been announced. The legal age of smoking will be raised by 1 year every year so that eventually, smoking is completely phased out in England. Anyone born in 2009 or later will never be legally allowed to buy a cigarette under the plans. Smoking will never be criminalised, and anyone who can legally buy cigarettes now will not ever be prevented from doing so, but anyone born in 2009 or later will never be able to legally buy cigarettes and thus smoking will eventually be phased out completely.

What do we reckon to these policy ideas?

Both sound intriguing, in my view, although in the case of the ABS, I do wonder whether they will be able to recruit enough new teachers to make the plan work.

The smoking idea in particular was also quite unexpected, from my end.

 

[tayspru]

In the midst of HS2 being cancelled north of Birmingham, it would appear that Sunak announced two interesting policy ideas at the Conservative conference. These were:

• A method of materialising his plans to see Maths and English taught to 18 has finally been devised. A Levels and T Levels will be replaced by the Advanced British Standard (ABS) from 2033 onwards. This will entail students doing 5 subjects on average rather than the current 3, including a compulsory component of English and Maths, and spending at least 195 hours more with a teacher during their post-16 education than they do currently. Plans for how this will take shape are to be strategised in the coming months, and as a means of getting more teachers to make the scheme possible, the government is giving teachers of “key subjects” a £30,000 tax-free bonus over the first 5 years of their career.
• A plan to eventually phase out smoking in England has been announced. The legal age of smoking will be raised by 1 year every year so that eventually, smoking is completely phased out in England. Anyone born in 2009 or later will never be legally allowed to buy a cigarette under the plans. Smoking will never be criminalised, and anyone who can legally buy cigarettes now will not ever be prevented from doing so, but anyone born in 2009 or later will never be able to legally buy cigarettes and thus smoking will eventually be phased out completely.

What do we reckon to these policy ideas?

Both sound intriguing, in my view, although in the case of the ABS, I do wonder whether they will be able to recruit enough new teachers to make the plan work.

The smoking idea in particular was also quite unexpected, from my end.

ABS isnt going to happen. The intention is that next years primary starters would be the first group that will do the new qualification … a decade from now. Rishi and his lot will be long gone before then

And the smoking ban is never gonna happen, too much is generated in taxes