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UK politics general discussion
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Thameslink Rail
TS Member
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If they do hold on for a January 2025 election then they'd all have to campaign over Christmas, that could be the Tories last effort to screw things over for everyone else.
GooseOnTheLoose
TS Member
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Everything's pointing toward a May 2024 GE, just to get our votes back in sync again after Boris's well paid off gamble and the crap left over from the fixed term parliament act.
There hasn't been a May general election since 2015.
Sir John Curtice's punt on one of the podcasts I listen to was Thu Oct 24th 2024. Last Thursday before clocks go back, easier to mobilise support-base etc being his rationale.
GooseOnTheLoose
TS Member
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Granted, but aside from the 2019 GE, there hasn't been a General Election outside of the May / June 'tradition' since 1974. If we're being pedants.
Our local elections are traditionally held in this period too, which helps keep costs down.
GooseOnTheLoose
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Dave
TS Founding Member
Not to say the government wouldn’t ignore it but they have been told to avoid the end of October/ November so as not to clash with the US elections (security threat). And early October clashes with conference season which impacts donations.
Slugjc
TS Member
I think May is the sensible thing for the country's sake. We can't go on like this. This is a government voted in to "get Brexit done" it's done now. Time to rebuild the mess that is now.
The party has voted in Liz Truss and ended up being led by a bloke who non of us wanted. A bloke with zero personality and leadership skills. A man who is bollocked by his wife when out and about (I've been told on good authority.)
We have given them a fair crack of the whip. Austerity was built on the lie that Britain would be better off because a library shut in Wolverhampton. The referendum was a poor attempt to silence the Eurosceptics. Brexit was poorly thought out and poorly excicuted by people who were only in it for self interest. The COVID backlash is still yet to come out in full and they elected a woman who tanked the economy yet blames everyone else and still thinks she was correct.
Britain now needs a chance to vote.
The party has voted in Liz Truss and ended up being led by a bloke who non of us wanted. A bloke with zero personality and leadership skills. A man who is bollocked by his wife when out and about (I've been told on good authority.)
We have given them a fair crack of the whip. Austerity was built on the lie that Britain would be better off because a library shut in Wolverhampton. The referendum was a poor attempt to silence the Eurosceptics. Brexit was poorly thought out and poorly excicuted by people who were only in it for self interest. The COVID backlash is still yet to come out in full and they elected a woman who tanked the economy yet blames everyone else and still thinks she was correct.
Britain now needs a chance to vote.
pluk
TS Member
We wont get it though. You are viewing and rationalising this as someone who doesn't want the current administration to continue. The current administration does not share this view!
Matt.GC
TS Member
This year's Tory conference was a disaster. It showed a very split party, with most wanting to veer off further to the right into obscure Farage style territory (the man himself attended and liked what he heard, by his own admission his list of not wanting to rejoin the party is smaller now). Moderates were sidelined for popular fringe groups full of right wing nutters like an unremorseful Liz Truss, and crazed speeches from people like Suella Braverman, who delivered Rivers of Blood 2: Enoch's Revenge on the main stage. People like Penny Mordaunt lost her mind and went on a ludicrous rant on the main stage that no one understood.
Going to Manchester to cancel HS2 to that very city was a PR disaster, with the Tory Mayor of the West Midlands joining not only the Labour Mayor's of the north but former PM's Major, Cameron, May and even disgraced Johnson in their condemnation of the decision. The delegates seemed more resigned to the likelihood that they're already toast, moderates are fleeing and stepping down, more extremists appear to be making early leadership bids and it looked more like a conference held the year after a defeat than the year before a win. The PM looked very weak in his attempt to straddle the disconnect, trying to appease everyone and in doing so failing miserably, with any discontent kept on the low simply because the conference wasn't as bad as it was last year.
There's very little they can do now and it's clear that the hard right are now pulling the strings behind the scenes as they believe this is the solution, which clips the wings of the PM even further. I think this almost completely rules out a Christmas/January election as they can't risk another display like that. Sunak can't hold back the tide and Labour are successfully sending tanks to the middle ground turf so the wisest decision would be to go for May. No clashes with the US election, a realignment of the traditional UK electoral cycle, and their best chance of limiting the damage. I also think there's cabinet members like Jeremy Hunt wanting to get out and run a mile, whilst someone like Braverman wants it over and done with so she can make a leadership bid. And election decisions are made at cabinet level.
If they go for Autumn, they run the risk of things getting even worse. The UK is a poison challace and there's very unpleasant decisions to be made in the future. Why would you want another 5/6 months in charge to make them? Better to get out now and hand it over to someone else to be seen as the Boogeyman instead of you.
They could of course do a Major and hope that things get better. The problem with that is, if there were some sweeties being given out to bribe voters, we would have at least heard the rustling of the Haribo packet at the conference ahead of next year's budget. This suggests that there aren't any sweeties, so the choice the country has is pretty much carry on with what they see now, with Sunaks nudge nudge wink wink promise's of some sort of deviation from the last 13 years, or Mr A.N. Other Kier Starmer. If Sunak believes in his own abilities, then he could use next summer to bounce around trying to distance himself from his governments record further in a last ditch attempt, whilst hoping for Labour to be embroiled in some sort of scandal. But if I was him or his cabinet, I'd be going for May 2024. That's not to say that they will however.
Going to Manchester to cancel HS2 to that very city was a PR disaster, with the Tory Mayor of the West Midlands joining not only the Labour Mayor's of the north but former PM's Major, Cameron, May and even disgraced Johnson in their condemnation of the decision. The delegates seemed more resigned to the likelihood that they're already toast, moderates are fleeing and stepping down, more extremists appear to be making early leadership bids and it looked more like a conference held the year after a defeat than the year before a win. The PM looked very weak in his attempt to straddle the disconnect, trying to appease everyone and in doing so failing miserably, with any discontent kept on the low simply because the conference wasn't as bad as it was last year.
There's very little they can do now and it's clear that the hard right are now pulling the strings behind the scenes as they believe this is the solution, which clips the wings of the PM even further. I think this almost completely rules out a Christmas/January election as they can't risk another display like that. Sunak can't hold back the tide and Labour are successfully sending tanks to the middle ground turf so the wisest decision would be to go for May. No clashes with the US election, a realignment of the traditional UK electoral cycle, and their best chance of limiting the damage. I also think there's cabinet members like Jeremy Hunt wanting to get out and run a mile, whilst someone like Braverman wants it over and done with so she can make a leadership bid. And election decisions are made at cabinet level.
If they go for Autumn, they run the risk of things getting even worse. The UK is a poison challace and there's very unpleasant decisions to be made in the future. Why would you want another 5/6 months in charge to make them? Better to get out now and hand it over to someone else to be seen as the Boogeyman instead of you.
They could of course do a Major and hope that things get better. The problem with that is, if there were some sweeties being given out to bribe voters, we would have at least heard the rustling of the Haribo packet at the conference ahead of next year's budget. This suggests that there aren't any sweeties, so the choice the country has is pretty much carry on with what they see now, with Sunaks nudge nudge wink wink promise's of some sort of deviation from the last 13 years, or Mr A.N. Other Kier Starmer. If Sunak believes in his own abilities, then he could use next summer to bounce around trying to distance himself from his governments record further in a last ditch attempt, whilst hoping for Labour to be embroiled in some sort of scandal. But if I was him or his cabinet, I'd be going for May 2024. That's not to say that they will however.
AT86
TS Member
On the other hand, these clowns know they are out of a job come the next election, they might not publicly admit it, but they know they are doomed.
So why would they put themselves up for unemployment any earlier than they legally have to? They will want to keep their wages and expenses coming in for as long as possible and keep handing out contracts and dodgy dealings to their mates at the same time.
I fear they will drag it out as long as they possibly can.
So why would they put themselves up for unemployment any earlier than they legally have to? They will want to keep their wages and expenses coming in for as long as possible and keep handing out contracts and dodgy dealings to their mates at the same time.
I fear they will drag it out as long as they possibly can.
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Matt.GC
TS Member
I have this feeling too, and I think that October is more likely still to cling on as long as possible. But May is looking more plausible by the day.
I suppose it comes down to whether cabinet meetings are centered around Sunak convincing them that he can fix this, or whether the conversation is "it's now or never".
Despite the best wishful thinking in the world, any decision will not be made based on what's right for the country, but their own electoral chances, as always happens with every party. Logically, I think May is the best chance of limiting electoral damage party-wide. But if they're seeing another year as a chance to further scorch the earth for the incoming government by utilising their current large majority to force through pet projects, then Autumn it is. The way he may see it is that he's only been in the job for 5 mins, has a large majority and wants to flex his muscles. I just don't think he has any, and it's likely they'll continue to see things differently to how we all do.
Because they are Tories, they tend to make far more money after being an MP than while being an MP.
"Contacts" in the business world from being in the corridors of power...tend to take on ex MPs.
Dave
TS Founding Member
Don’t forget the MP’s have no say in the date, it’s back to being a decision for the PM only.
He might decide that calling an earlier election will minimise the size of the parties loss, whereas if he waits they will have fewer MP’s in opposition which makes future fundraising harder.
That said I don’t think Rishi Sunak actually cares about the Tory party so it’s more likely that he either drags this out as long as possible or he decides he is fed up with being PM and wants to live to California sooner rather than later so calls an election.
Uniquely among Tory leaders, I don't think the sums of money on offer to ex-MPs/PMs are really that interesting to Rishi Sunak.
Perhaps more interesting, for him, is the prospect of being PM for 2 years rather than 18 months in the history books; plus whatever corrupt stuff he can do as part of this scorched earth policy he seems to be enacting.
The right thing to do for the country would be a general election ASAP, I think that's obvious. The right thing to do for the party is probably the same too - every day longer they drag this on for will only count against them in the minds of the electorate in later elections. They're also moving the point at which they can start blaming the government for whatever cracks off further and further down the line. Economically the picture is shite and will likely remain so beyond the next election, whenever that is. A new government has a grace period where they can just blame the old regime (so long as they don't do some mad crap like unfunded tax cuts for higher rate tax payers).
BarryZola
TS Member
Yes, and we all know that that definitely doesn't lead to bankers doing shady stuff and selling dodgy financial products just to earn bigger bonuses, which inevitably leads to some major mess-up in the economy a decade later (that they're never punished for adequately like normal people would be).
Now come on, this wasn't Rishi's plan, he is simply continuing the policy planning of the last administration.
Kwasi's plans for equality in our fair nation must be upheld.
The bankers must be allowed to set their own fair bonuses for really hard work without governmental limits.
We all know what dedicated hard workers they are, with the best interests of the nation at heart.
They deserve the big bonuses, without limits...it is simply the Conservative way.
I did say MPs, not PMs.
Although it is the Prime Ministers final decision, there is heavy influence from MPs and cabinet regarding the election date.
We have only got 3,800,000 people living in extreme poverty in this country according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation...there is room for plenty more with this policy...keep the rich rich, and the poor poor.
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