Matt.GC
TS Member
The Prime Minister has said that 2024 will be an election year, with November being the most likely. I'm not a betting man, but I have a pretty good track record of predicting GE results and I'm following this one closely.
I always do actually as I love General Elections. This one is an interesting one. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years now, with that initial election in to power off the back of a hung parliament. We've seen Brexit, Covid, and 5 prime ministers in that time, 3 of these prime ministers since the last election alone, including the shortest serving one in history. Labour in that time have changed direction erratically and the 2019 GE polled one of their worst defeats ever, yet currently poll 20 points ahead and have done on and off for 2 years.
Somehow, 2019 seems like a long time ago. Both major parties have different leaders and different policy positions. As ever in politics, scandal has never been far away from either, but it's also cast shadows on the other parties that normally have an important roll in shaping GE results in such circumstances. The SNP have seen a massive fall from grace, previously unforeseen until recently, due to a number of scandles. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey looked poised to put the damage that the coalition government did to the party's electoral fortunes behind him, but is facing pressure for his role as Business secretary during the Post Office Horizon scandal. The DUP have caused themselves, and unionism, great damage in refusing to restore the NI assembly, and Sinn Fein seem more powerful than ever in both NI and the republic. Meanwhile, Reform UK are openly gunning for the Tories on the right and have policy positions such as nationalising energy that are at odds with conservatiism, whilst the Greens are quietly confident in a few seats.
All this against the back drop of a war in Europe, as we recover from a pandemic, have left the EU, the public finances are in a bad state, economic growth and productivity have stagnated for years, AI and new technologist change our economy, public services are failing, local councils are going bankrupt, and a second Trump presidency seems like a real possibility.
What do you think will happen? This poll is changeable as we get closer to the election so you can change your vote as things develop. Let's see if Towers Street can predict the result.
Please note, this isn't about what you want the result to be, but what you think it will be and why?
Personally, I want a Labour Majority but think we'll get a labour minority result at this stage. I think the Tories are toast, but I can't see a positive enough swing to labour. Peter Mandleson and Neil Kinnock have both warned that opinion polls are based on Conservative unpopularity and not Labour popularity and that the swing being suggested is unprecedented. I also can't see Starmer not cocking this up. It seems like people have made their mind up about the conservatives already, which puts the focus on Labour, yet we see gaff after gaff. I think this could cause unpredictability. Will this see people holding their noses to vote Tory or Labour, stay at home, or push them towards other parties?
I always do actually as I love General Elections. This one is an interesting one. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years now, with that initial election in to power off the back of a hung parliament. We've seen Brexit, Covid, and 5 prime ministers in that time, 3 of these prime ministers since the last election alone, including the shortest serving one in history. Labour in that time have changed direction erratically and the 2019 GE polled one of their worst defeats ever, yet currently poll 20 points ahead and have done on and off for 2 years.
Somehow, 2019 seems like a long time ago. Both major parties have different leaders and different policy positions. As ever in politics, scandal has never been far away from either, but it's also cast shadows on the other parties that normally have an important roll in shaping GE results in such circumstances. The SNP have seen a massive fall from grace, previously unforeseen until recently, due to a number of scandles. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey looked poised to put the damage that the coalition government did to the party's electoral fortunes behind him, but is facing pressure for his role as Business secretary during the Post Office Horizon scandal. The DUP have caused themselves, and unionism, great damage in refusing to restore the NI assembly, and Sinn Fein seem more powerful than ever in both NI and the republic. Meanwhile, Reform UK are openly gunning for the Tories on the right and have policy positions such as nationalising energy that are at odds with conservatiism, whilst the Greens are quietly confident in a few seats.
All this against the back drop of a war in Europe, as we recover from a pandemic, have left the EU, the public finances are in a bad state, economic growth and productivity have stagnated for years, AI and new technologist change our economy, public services are failing, local councils are going bankrupt, and a second Trump presidency seems like a real possibility.
What do you think will happen? This poll is changeable as we get closer to the election so you can change your vote as things develop. Let's see if Towers Street can predict the result.
Please note, this isn't about what you want the result to be, but what you think it will be and why?
Personally, I want a Labour Majority but think we'll get a labour minority result at this stage. I think the Tories are toast, but I can't see a positive enough swing to labour. Peter Mandleson and Neil Kinnock have both warned that opinion polls are based on Conservative unpopularity and not Labour popularity and that the swing being suggested is unprecedented. I also can't see Starmer not cocking this up. It seems like people have made their mind up about the conservatives already, which puts the focus on Labour, yet we see gaff after gaff. I think this could cause unpredictability. Will this see people holding their noses to vote Tory or Labour, stay at home, or push them towards other parties?
Last edited: