UK Politics General Discussion

[Relife]

My Mrs works in school and they had mock elections. Labour came out top but not by much and the runner up was Reform. Everyone expects young people to vote a certain way and I think that's led to complacency by the major parties

 

[Tom]

People voting Reform deserve a degree of respect. Virtually everything they voted for in the Brexit referendum has not happened. Yes, many of us knew it was pie-in-the-sky, but Brexit voters have the right to give their own share of ice to the berg that is about to down the Conservative Party.

 

[tayspru]

People voting Reform deserve a degree of respect. Virtually everything they voted for in the Brexit referendum has not happened. Yes, many of us knew it was pie-in-the-sky, but Brexit voters have the right to give their own share of ice to the berg that is about to down the Conservative Party.

They get as much respect from me as they give to migrants, LGBTQ+ people, and other minorities (AKA none)

 

[Matt.GC]

I don't think there's any credible way of assessing turnout whilst the polls are still open. Granted, I had a short queue at my local polling station, and because I can see it from my bedroom window, it's been busy all day. Not usually like that.

Reform have a strangely rabid fan base. Facts aren't a concern for the ones I've met, it's just bashing "Wokism" and foreigners, with conspiracy theories about some sort of Sharia Law being around the corner. I'm yet to meet a supporter who can name a single Reform policy beyond Net Zero immigration. I pointed out to someone the other day that there were £140bn of completely unfunded tax cuts that mainly benefit the rich, and the response was "at least we'll get our country back". Whatever that means (back from whom, and to whom? Where did it go? Who are "we"? Where did the country go? So many questions). That can make their vote quite unpredictable and they may have a better than expected night as a result, but I don't think there's a reason why the polls may have missed something major.

There's some quite incredible figures being banded around about Reform vote share as it is. Very unusual for such a new fringe outfit with next to no credible policies. But then I remember when UKIP were supposed to be the second coming of Christ.

 

[Tom]

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They get as much respect from me as they give to migrants, LGBTQ+ people, and other minorities (AKA none)

A little broad-brush, don't you think? They will attract millions of votes - unlikely they are all against those things.

 

[Alsty]

The polling station near me was busy too. I had to queue, which I've not experienced before.

It's anecdotal, of course.

 

[tayspru]

A little broad-brush, don't you think? They will attract millions of votes - unlikely they are all against those things.

Not all reform voters are racist, but racists will all vote reform. Just look at the amount of their candidates, who have made horrendous comments (“Autistic people are vegetables” being a recent one) that have found they’re welcomed to the party - why would you align yourself with that unless the racism, discrimination and misogyny doesn’t bother you?

 

[Matt N]

My polling station was empty…. although seeing as I live in a rural village with only around 500 residents, I’ve never really seen any different at that polling station!

As for Reform, I think they are gaining a really surprising following. I know of a lot of people where I live who are claiming to support Reform, and my grandad came over this evening and said that “everyone down the pub is voting Reform”.

Incidentally, my grandad himself, for the first time in his life, voted Labour. He’s always absolutely hated the Labour Party, but said that he’d never wanted a Tory government gone so much in his life and knew that Labour was the only way to unseat our local Tory MP, so took the plunge and voted red for the first ever time.

 

[James]

My polling station was empty, but I've never known a queue in all my years of voting.

I'm not an expert in politics, so I won't pretend I know what I'm talking about and will keep this brief.

I didn't vote Labour (or Conservative), despite my constituency being Labour-led since the 1980s. I don't feel Labour have done any good for my local area or Wales in general, and in the bigger picture, I'm just not sold on Starmer. It’s a wasted vote, but I would rather that than vote Labour for the sake of it. Plus, if I moan in the future, I will feel happier having been a part of the vote.

My personal and biggest concern (the state of the NHS) I don't feel any party has appropriately addressed, and I have no trust in any party enacting any meaningful changes to the NHS. This has been an odd election where I don't care and can't wait for it to be done. As long as the Tories are out, I guess things are less sh*t than they were yesterday, maybe.

 

[Ryan]

I pointed out to someone the other day that there were £140bn of completely unfunded tax cuts that mainly benefit the rich, and the response was "at least we'll get our country back". Whatever that means (back from whom, and to whom? Where did it go? Who are "we"?.

I think most people entering a polling station today have "getting my country back" on their mind. I think it's shorthand for many, a way of expressing a feeling of our country just not doing well, not feeling like a positive, prosperous, friendly place.

But what people are doing about that feeling varies.

I think there's a huge proportion of people in the UK, who will simply listen to which group those doing well instruct them to hate next.

And they're always told, it's those beneath you holding you down, as opposed to those above you pushing you down. It's the, relatively tiny amount of people from other countries "comin' over 'ere" crippling a modern, prosperous nation. It's the people "scrounging" the tiniest slither of our wealth through benefits making life difficult for everyone else. It's the wokies. Workers who are unionised. Etc. Etc.

The theme always is, it's never, ever those at top that are bringing any sort of hardship to the nation. It's like walking into a wrecked room, and a pair of drunk toffs point at a grain of sand on the floor, and say "they did it". The people blamed for all our problems are specks of dust, a rounding error. "Send them back", "Let them starve" and our country STILL won't come back, we'll be in the same place we were before. That slither of freed up resource from their absence won't be benevolently showered onto us, it'll just go where the rest of the wealth, health and prosperity goes. UP.

 

[pluk]

If this has come to pass when I wake up, then blimey!!

 

[Deleted member 17985]

Tentative congratulations and thanks England, you bloody did it! It's about time the Tories were sent packing.

 

[Tom]

Disappointingly high prediction for the Tories

 

[Matt N]

The exit poll has come out… and it predicts a Labour landslide.

The results are:

• Labour: 410
• Conservatives: 131
• Liberal Democrats: 61
• Reform UK: 13
• Scottish National Party: 10
• Plaid Cymru: 4
• Green Party: 2
• Other: 19

So in summary, then, the Labour landslide is looking quite similar to the more conservative poll predictions, and the Conservative annihilation has also seemingly outweighed 1997 as predicted.

I must admit, however, that I’m shocked by how well Reform has supposedly done… 13 seats is way beyond what I had ever expected for Reform. I was expecting 1, maybe 2 or 3 at best for Reform… if the exit poll is vaguely accurate, then I have to admit that Reform have done spectacularly well!

The SNP have also been absolutely annihilated according to the exit poll… I’m getting Lib Dem 2015 VIBES from their result.

 

[Relife]

SNP have had it too easy for too long. Labour are actually providing a genuine alternative that's been missing in Scotland so I'm not surprised.

 

[Matt.GC]

Don't want to blow my own trumpet, but I knew the poles overstated Labour gains and Tory wipeout. But a few of "howevers" from me.

I didn't expect Reform to gain more than 4. That took me surprise. Indicates to me that the Tories have been hammered by Reform more than anything. No Reform and this would have been much closer.

SNP collapse is much worse than I expected.

Finally, it's still important to note that the same factors remain with the exit poll as they did with the MRP's. A quick look at the seat projections, and there's still dozens of seats on a knife edge with few votes in it. Yes this Exit poll is likely to be more accurate than the MRP's, but they still haven't polled every constituency, this is still just a sample. In previous years this would be enough, I'm not so sure it is tonight. But we'll know in a few hours.

 

[BigT]

You do realise the exit poll can be wrong as well? No way reform are winning 13 seats, I’d be amazed if they end the night with one.
Too many close seats for the exit poll to be accurate this time I’m afraid.

 

[Matt N]

You do realise the exit poll can be wrong as well? No way reform are winning 13 seats, I’d be amazed if they end the night with one.
Too many close seats for the exit poll to be accurate this time I’m afraid.

The exit poll has been very accurate for pretty much every election in the last 30 years; the only notable fail I can think of is 1992. Even 2015 was only off by around 15 Tory seats; even though it did predict a hung parliament rather than a Tory majority, the actual discrepancy in terms of seats was not that large.

I’d certainly trust the exit poll more than I’d trust any of the opinion polls beforehand, or anyone’s individual predictions at this stage. Plenty of people on political programmes have said “I’ll eat my hat if that exit poll is right…” in previous years, and most have ended up eating said hat!

 

[Matt.GC]

You do realise the exit poll can be wrong as well? No way reform are winning 13 seats, I’d be amazed if they end the night with one.
Too many close seats for the exit poll to be accurate this time I’m afraid.

Well yes. That's what I just said.

 

[BigT]

No election has been like this one, too many seats in the balance, within the error percentage can be a huge difference.
I can remember when Cameron won a majority, the exit poll was wrong that night.