UK Politics General Discussion

[Matt N]

My question about the MRP polls is; how on Earth does only 43% of the vote for Labour lead to 487 seats out of 650? Boris Johnson got 43.6% of the vote in 2019, and he only got 365 Conservative seats.

I must admit that I'm sceptical that Labour will gain such a massive majority, and I'm not sure that the Tories will be nearly as annihilated as many of these polls suggest. Keir Starmer's Labour Party does not strike me as popular enough in its own right to galvanise the sort of broad support required to get 400+ seats. However, I am increasingly coming around to the idea that Labour getting a majority of some description is very, very likely, if only because of anti-Tory sentiment rather than pro-Labour sentiment.

I think Reform could be a party to watch. I reckon Nigel Farage has a fair shot at winning in Clacton, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of other places go turquoise for Reform (such as Lee Anderson's seat in Ashfield). I also think that the Lib Dems and the Greens could do quite well, as I reckon that anti-Tory tactical voting could be quite prevalent.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

My question about the MRP polls is; how on Earth does only 43% of the vote for Labour lead to 487 seats out of 650? Boris Johnson got 43.6% of the vote in 2019, and he only got 365 Conservative seats.

First Past the Post and because they're heavily polling that the right vote will be split significantly for the first time.

Labour may only get 43% of the total vote, but if in every Tory seat (extreme example) the right vote is equally split between Conservative and Reform, Labour most likely wins out and the seat goes to them.

In the last election Labour had 32.1% of the total vote, but 40% of the seats. The Green Parry had 2.61% of the vote, but 0.2% of seats.

 

[Tom]

Look up the election in the 1950s where the party that won got less votes than the runner up.

Go with the flow and the wildness of FPTP.

 

[Mick]

I’d always pick competence over charisma. Labour aren’t over-promising quite simply because they don’t need to, they haven’t had to take a single risk really. The only potential vote losing policy might be the private school VAT. If the polls were closer they might’ve had to say some more radical and transformative headline grabbing policies.

I don't think Starmer is a particular good communicator and it’s shown in this election campaign, but it doesn’t overly concern me. Give me a respected professional over a Farage character any day.

 

[shakey]

I’d always pick competence over charisma. Labour aren’t over-promising quite simply because they don’t need to, they haven’t had to take a single risk really. The only potential vote losing policy might be the private school VAT. If the polls were closer they might’ve had to say some more radical and transformative headline grabbing policies.

I don't think Starmer is a particular good communicator and it’s shown in this election campaign, but it doesn’t overly concern me. Give me a respected professional over a Farage character any day.

Yes, Labour have the luxury of being able to play it safe. And barring some bizarre revelation about Starmer in the next couple of weeks they are pretty much guaranteed a majority. So no need to risk making daft promises.

The interesting thing is how well the other parties do and just how much vote share the Tories lose this time. It has been a catastrophic fall since 2019.

It's definitely time for a change but if past changes in government are anything to go buy I wouldn't get too excited.

I am looking forward to the election day. I am stationed in a pub this time. 15 hours in a pub without any alcohol!! Such fun !!



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Alsty]

My question about the MRP polls is; how on Earth does only 43% of the vote for Labour lead to 487 seats out of 650? Boris Johnson got 43.6% of the vote in 2019, and he only got 365 Conservative seats.

Due to the First-Past-The-Post system, it depends on the distribution of the votes across the constituencies.

If lots of people will vote for your party, but the support is thinly spread over lots of constituencies, then it doesn't count for anything.

This UK Gov poll breaks their estimate down into constituencies which you might find helpful to visualise it:

UK General Election 2024 | YouGov

YouGov. Stay informed on the latest UK general election polling data.

yougov.co.uk

 

[Benzin]

Farage has done same as Johnson did. Created a "man of the people" character that plays well with the "he's just saying the things people are scared to say" crowd. Taking full advantage of the absolute mess the Tories are in on top of that.

Grifters gonna grift. He'd never want the big job, as his role is far better sniping from the sidelines. Whilst keeping his German passport and part owning the Reform Party Ltd.

Shame he didn't sod off to America like he originally said he would.

 

[Tom]

Farage has had a consistent narrative and ideology for decades. In particular no mainstream party has ever had any significant policy on controlling immigration, which has massively helped him to linger this long.

Johnson has neither aside from populism, be that left or right-based.

 

[Matt.GC]

Going to go out on a limb and make an early ballpark prediction. May come back to haunt me as there's still a considerable amount of the campaign left to go and there's a lot that could change.

Labour 380-420 seats.
Conservatives 120-180 seats.
Liberal Democrats 50-65 seats.
SNP 20-25 seats.
Plaid Cymru 3 seats.
Green 2 seats.
Reform UK 1 seat (Clacton)
Others 21 (Speakers seat, Northern Ireland, Galloway and Corbyn).

 

[Tom]

I now estimate the death penalty coming into campaign(s) by 10 June.

Also coming soon: the abolishment of the television licence, and mandatory acceptance of cash as payment.

So I'm a little out on the death penalty so far, but the Tories are getting desperate so give it time.

On the other two though, Reform have called a line in the bingo hall, with the BBC licence fee scrappage and mandatory cash payments now locked in.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1911646/Nigel-Farage-reform-election-manifesto?int_source=nba

 

[Matt.GC]

Getting rid of the "institutionally biased" BBC. You know, that organisation that has given a massively disproportionate amount of airtime to Farage, Reform and UKIP over the years, despite the fact that they've all been less electorally successful than the Greens and Plaid in that time.

All those freedoms and British cultural values protected. Brought to you by the guys who slag off one of the largest religious groups in the country, who also want to dictate what payment systems businesses use and tell banks which investment customers it is allowed to have.

 

[Matt N]

I noticed that my local Tory MP has posted a video on Facebook (I saw it as a sponsored ad from Gloucestershire Conservatives) talking about “Labour’s Retirement Tax”:

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this “retirement tax” just the fiscal drag that would have happened under the Conservative government anyway that Labour simply aren’t reversing as opposed to some sinister “retirement tax” like Harper and the Tories make out?

 

[rob666]

Politicians tend to lie.
They tend to lie more before elections.
No real "why", just "is".

 

[Benzin]

How can you tell a politician is lying?

Their mouth is open.

 

[Mick]

The Conservatives are absolutely screwed let’s be honest. They’ve haemorrhaging votes to both Labour and Reform, their focus on attacks seems to be that people will be financially worse off under Labour but it’s not sticking as firstly nobody believes them, and secondly, nobody’s even listening to what they have to say anymore.

 

[Benzin]

For those who want to be tactical or just see if they don't have to hold their noses and vote for Labour just because, direct yourselves to https://www.getvoting.org/.

 

[Matt.GC]

I noticed that my local Tory MP has posted a video on Facebook (I saw it as a sponsored ad from Gloucestershire Conservatives) talking about “Labour’s Retirement Tax”:

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this “retirement tax” just the fiscal drag that would have happened under the Conservative government anyway that Labour simply aren’t reversing as opposed to some sinister “retirement tax” like Harper and the Tories make out?

Yes and it's pretty desperate stuff. It's their tax effectively. They created it by freezing the tax thresholds (which Labour will also adopt for balance). At the last minute they've pledged to do something about their own creation and attacked Labour for not adopting it also. It's crazy. It's the 2024 version of "Labours Death Tax" (translation is inheritance tax which is a wealth tax) and "Labour's Jobs Tax" (National Insurance rise, in which employers would pay more.). Not that anyone is fooled or is listening anymore. The Tories are a spent force.

Sidestepping, but staying on a similar subject, I find it interesting that you live in a safe Tory seat and you're getting this stuff. I'm in what was a relatively safe Tory seat that looks like it no longer is (due to Tories tanking in the polls and boundary changes) and I'm not seeing anything. From anyone.

Maybe it's the fact that this forum is the closest I get to social media (I hate it and don't use it) and all the campaigning is on there these days? But if I watch the telly, the coverage is the same as it's always been. Locally however, it's like there isn't even an election on. By now, the fields and country lanes are normally dressed with large Vote Conservative adverts. Posters and signs for the other parties are normally seen in gardens and living room windows in the housing estates. I normally have a collection of election leaflets and someone would normally have knocked on my door by now.

But all I've seen is one Green party board in someone's garden that fell over 2 weeks ago and hasn't been erected again since, 1 Labour poster in a living room window, and the Tory MP has sent a single leaflet through the door, in which the colour blue does not feature and it only says that he's Conservative in the small print on the back. There's no local news on the consistency, I haven't seen any door knocking, no one is talking about it, leaflet drops haven't happened.

I thought it could be that it was a little too early. But the manifestos were launched last week. I've heard more from the neighbouring constituency (Wells and Mendip Hills which is pretty much brand new) and I drove through it and Bridgwater constituency yesterday because there was a crash on the M5. We went to pick up 2 arm chairs near Bridgwater, and when we entered the constituency boundary via the A38 (also snarled up) there were Blue placards everywhere (mentioned the candidate by name rather than Conservative). We decided to head down the towards Glastonbury and came through Cheddar on the way home, which is our neighbouring constituency of Wells and Mendip Hills. Every time we went through a village it was plastered with orange Lib Dem signs trying to get Tessa Munt back. Get back here and there's nothing at all. I haven't been since the election was called, but apparently central Bristol is plastered in Green and Red posters (not unusual in that city at election time).

Anyone else finding this? It strikes me as odd that not a single party seems to be putting funds into this constituency. It's like there's an election not even happening. It's a seat the Tories will be desperate to retain, and the exact kind of seat Starmer is targeting. Yet only 5 candidates are standing (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, and Reform) and you have to search quite hard on the internet to find anything about any of them. It all seems rather odd?

 

[Craig]

It’s definitely a little quieter, but don’t think it’s anything too unusual up here - anecdotally I’m certainly seeing fewer boards/banners for the Conservative candidate compared to what I usually see on the outskirts of town. I think there’s a large percentage of people that just want the whole thing over and done with rather than waiting to the 4th July.

There’s a lot of internal polling and analysis that decides what to spend and when (targeting heavily postal voting areas earlier for example), so I’m guessing it’s not seen as a priority in your constituency yet @Matt.GC. Now a lot of those postal votes have been received and returned, we’ll usually enter a bit of a lull for the next week or so as voters aren’t usually that engaged until the last week or so of the campaign. That’s even more so with the likes of the Euros going on at the moment.

The “ground operation“ is now a split between the traditional feet on the ground and leaflets through letterboxes vs targeted social media advertising. Of course you can only spend what you’ve had donated, and with the short notice for the campaign and donations said to be down for the Tories, I’m guessing that’s playing a part too. As an aside, I do find Meta’s Ad Library to be pretty fascinating to see the ads candidates and parties are running and the audience sizes they’re targeting. Well worth a look if you’re bored!

Touching on Forest of Dean for @Matt N though, and despite it being considered as a safe Tory seat previously, current polling suggests there’s an extremely good chance of the seat going to Labour. That’s thanks to Reform splitting the remaining votes on the right, and base don Labour picking up an additional 10-15% of the votes. That’ll likely explain the daft panicky ads Harper is running at the moment.

It’s much the same picture nationally now, and likely playing into this apathy with many just wanting the campaign over and done with. The Tories are in damage limitation mode, not even bothering to talk about their manifesto and just repeatedly talking about “super majorities” and not giving Labour a “blank cheque”. The key now is just to keep the party in official opposition - a crazy thing to say for the Conservatives who previously had an 80 seat majority, and a warning shot for the future for parties who try to fight populism by turning to populist tactics and policies themselves. Obviously the problem now is that Pandora’s box has been opened now, and it’ll be difficult to put a lid on it for some time now…

It’s the most bizarre of election campaigns I’ve seen in my lifetime, and while I’m finding it absolutely fascinating, That said, I’d much prefer it if I could watch from afar and it all didn’t directly affect me!

 

[Thameslink Rail]

Tbh, I prefer the Monster Raving Loony Manifesto but they're not standing in my area.

The OFFICIAL Monster Raving Loony Party Manicfesto for General Election 2024

We are fighting this Election on the basis of CHANGE.. LOOSE CHANGE as this is all we’ll have left under a Labour/Conservative Government The Loony Party will build 5 million new homes, fill…

www.loonyparty.com

"MP’s will have to sit in stocks during their surgeries, while their constituents throw custard pies at them. This will help them judge their popularity within the community. Companies would also be encouraged to design new versions of stocks to trade at the Stock Exchange."

 

[Matt N]

Sidestepping, but staying on a similar subject, I find it interesting that you live in a safe Tory seat and you're getting this stuff. I'm in what was a relatively safe Tory seat that looks like it no longer is (due to Tories tanking in the polls and boundary changes) and I'm not seeing anything. From anyone.

Maybe it's the fact that this forum is the closest I get to social media (I hate it and don't use it) and all the campaigning is on there these days? But if I watch the telly, the coverage is the same as it's always been. Locally however, it's like there isn't even an election on. By now, the fields and country lanes are normally dressed with large Vote Conservative adverts. Posters and signs for the other parties are normally seen in gardens and living room windows in the housing estates. I normally have a collection of election leaflets and someone would normally have knocked on my door by now.

But all I've seen is one Green party board in someone's garden that fell over 2 weeks ago and hasn't been erected again since, 1 Labour poster in a living room window, and the Tory MP has sent a single leaflet through the door, in which the colour blue does not feature and it only says that he's Conservative in the small print on the back. There's no local news on the consistency, I haven't seen any door knocking, no one is talking about it, leaflet drops haven't happened.

I thought it could be that it was a little too early. But the manifestos were launched last week. I've heard more from the neighbouring constituency (Wells and Mendip Hills which is pretty much brand new) and I drove through it and Bridgwater constituency yesterday because there was a crash on the M5. We went to pick up 2 arm chairs near Bridgwater, and when we entered the constituency boundary via the A38 (also snarled up) there were Blue placards everywhere (mentioned the candidate by name rather than Conservative). We decided to head down the towards Glastonbury and came through Cheddar on the way home, which is our neighbouring constituency of Wells and Mendip Hills. Every time we went through a village it was plastered with orange Lib Dem signs trying to get Tessa Munt back. Get back here and there's nothing at all. I haven't been since the election was called, but apparently central Bristol is plastered in Green and Red posters (not unusual in that city at election time).

Anyone else finding this? It strikes me as odd that not a single party seems to be putting funds into this constituency. It's like there's an election not even happening. It's a seat the Tories will be desperate to retain, and the exact kind of seat Starmer is targeting. Yet only 5 candidates are standing (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, and Reform) and you have to search quite hard on the internet to find anything about any of them. It all seems rather odd?

I’m getting quite aggressively targeted by the Conservatives and Labour on Facebook (the only social network I actively use), but they’re the only two. The Conservative targeting is more local in focus, with it mostly being videos of Mark Harper talking about his travels around the consistency and saying why we should re-elect him on 4th July, whereas the Labour stuff is from the countrywide Labour Party rather than our local Labour candidate. It’s usually either “Keir Starmer” or “The Labour Party”… and oddly “Welsh Labour” every now and then even though I live in England, not Wales.

In terms of locally, I’ve definitely seen a few campaign posters, although I agree that there perhaps aren’t quite as many as usual. Interestingly, the most prolific party posters around here actually seem to be the Green Party, who’ve started to get huge victories in the Forest of Dean at recent local elections (they now control the district council) and do seem to have a fair (or perhaps just vocal) following around where I live. There are also a good few “Vote Labour” posters, as well… although in the next village over, where my grandparents live, things have kicked off a bit. Someone went through the village in the dead of the night and tore down all of the “Vote Labour” placards, while mysteriously leaving all of the “Vote Green” ones up… clearly someone in the village really doesn’t want people voting Labour!

Most fascinatingly, I’ve seen no “Vote Conservative” placards this time… with the previously alluded to Tory results around here, there’s normally at least a fair modicum of Tory promotion in local homes, but I’ve seen nothing this time around. I haven’t yet seen anything for Reform either… which is interesting given that I remember seeing quite a bit of “Vote UKIP” locally when Farage’s political project last stood around here in 2015 (UKIP was diminished beyond recognition in 2017 and did not have Farage’s affiliation, and the Brexit Party did not stand here in 2019 due to their pact with the Conservatives).

Touching on Forest of Dean for @Matt N though, and despite it being considered as a safe Tory seat previously, current polling suggests there’s an extremely good chance of the seat going to Labour. That’s thanks to Reform splitting the remaining votes on the right, and base don Labour picking up an additional 10-15% of the votes. That’ll likely explain the daft panicky ads Harper is running at the moment.

I‘ll be interested to see how the election pans out locally. For years, I’ve been resigned to a Labour vote not really meaning a whole lot around here, but it does look as though there’s a chance that Labour votes might finally mean something in the Forest. Polls for this seat seem very mixed; the YouGov MRP poll suggested that it’s a toss up between being a marginal Tory hold and a marginal Labour gain, some polls have suggested that Labour could win, and others have suggested that the Tories could hold it and Harper could retain his seat.

If we look to history, the only times in recent history where this seat has voted Labour were in 1997 and 2001, when Blair was at his absolute peak. The seat was Tory for years prior to 1997, quickly went Tory again when Blair lost popularity in 2005, and Mark Harper’s vote share only seems to have increased ever since. My prediction is that Labour will only win this seat if they have an absolutely spectacular night nationwide (i.e. a 1997-style landslide). If the result ends up being more marginal in Labour’s favour or if the Tories defy the odds and win, I think the seat will probably stay Tory.

I think the election could be interesting, and for the first time in my lifetime, I'm interested to see how it pans out locally, as this is the first time I can remember where a Tory win hasn't seemed like a foregone conclusion. I think Labour definitely have a chance, although I think the Greens could also do quite well too. At very least, a sizeable, and vocal, minority of locals seem to support the Green Party around here. Furthermore, I think Reform UK could throw a real cat amongst the pigeons in the Forest; a sizeable minority voted UKIP in 2015 (they were the third largest party behind Conservatives and Labour, and got something like 20% of the vote, in the Forest in 2015). I don't see the Liberal Democrats doing too well here, though; despite us being in the Lib Dem heartland of South West England, this area has never had a significant Lib Dem support base. In fact, the Lib Dems actually didn't stand here at all in 2019.

I will say, though, that Mark Harper is not a terribly popular local MP, from my experience. The wide consensus is that he's pretty much invisible around here, with all of his Facebook posts attracting lots of snide comments such as "Harper in the Forest? Must be election time..." or moaning about how he's never seen around here or how he doesn't respond to people's emails. My one set of grandparents were saying to me that they would happily vote tactically for Labour just to get rid of Harper, and my other grandad doesn't exactly like him after he had a rather heated doorstep disagreement with him during the 2019 election campaign over Harper not responding to any of his emails...

On a side note, I find this seat’s consistent tendency to vote Tory quite peculiar. The Forest of Dean has a strong mining heritage, and I thought most mining areas were Labour through and through (or “Red Wall” Tory seats in 2019) after Margaret Thatcher decimated the mines? While the constituency is admittedly pretty rural, has some pretty affluent areas, and also leans considerably older than England as a whole, there are also some notable belts of deprivation locally, particularly within the Forest's larger ex-mining towns.