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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll


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From the FT page:

Denmark said it would cull its entire population of up to 17m mink over fears that a coronavirus mutation in the animals that are farmed for their valuable fur could threaten the effectiveness of any future vaccine.

Danish authorities said a variant detected in a dozen people who had recently caught the infection from mink in the north of the country was so worrying that it raised questions of how well any potential inoculation would work across the world.

“Due to the discovery of a mutated infection in mink, which weakens the ability to form antibodies, resolute action is needed. It is necessary to kill all mink,” Mette Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister, said on Wednesday.

“The mutated virus carries the risk that a future vaccine will not work as it should.”

Kaare Molbak, Denmark’s top epidemiologist, said that in the “worst-case scenario, the pandemic will restart, this time in Denmark”.

Denmark is the world’s largest producer of minks skins. Annual production of about 19m skins accounts for €1.1bn in Danish exports, with China being the largest market.

The Scandinavian country has already culled more than 1m mink due to worries about the virus, but the latest action is a dramatic escalation in a country known for its animal products, including its pork. Danish police said the cull of 15m to 17m animals would take several days.

Ms Frederiksen, who is self-isolating along with much of her government after Denmark’s justice minister tested positive for the virus, said the decision had been taken with a “heavy heart” as she apologised to mink farmers for destroying their “life’s work”.

Denmark’s agriculture minister said the cull amounted to the de facto closure of the country’s mink industry for “a number of years”.

Magnus Heunicke, health minister, said the mutations had been found at five different mink farms. The people who had the new form of the virus were not severely ill but they did not respond positively to antibodies, he said.

“Studies have shown that the mutations could affect the current candidates for a Covid-19 vaccine,” he added.

Asked if the mutation could be a new “Covid-20” version of the virus, Mr Molbak said it would be for international biologists to make that call.

Denmark, like most European countries, has imposed extra restrictions in recent weeks as its virus infections hit a new record, due in large part to more extensive testing than in the spring. Additional measures will be introduced in North Jutland due to the mutated virus, the prime minister said.

Tage Pedersen, chairman of the association of Danish mink breeders, said: “We must of course not be the cause of a new pandemic . . . But the government’s decision is a catastrophe for the industry and for Denmark.”

Mink farmers will receive full compensation for the cull with Danish media suggesting it could cost up to DKr5bn ($788m).
 
I think the key to dealing with Covid-19 is not to vacinate but to be able to test and prove new treatments, If we can prove to reduce the risk of death and hospital admision then this would ease the burden on the NHS, the majority of graphs shown on Saturday show us being in this wave until at least mid 2021.
 
Surely, with how long this is dragging on and with stories of mutations, we have to learn to live with this somehow without resorting to such extreme measures.

I don't want to start an argument about economy Vs mortality, but it's factual now to say that some of the poorest paid workers are suffering due to restrictions. The economic disaster now playing out in this country bis costing lives.

We were told over by Easter, over by Summer, over by the time the kids went back to school, over by Christmas, now we're being told that, if a vaccine is plausible (I don't think it is) were looking at the second half of next year.

When will we have to take the plunge and semi permanently restructure our health services, public restrictions, economy and ways of life so we can get back to some sort of normality? The chaotic changing restrictions across the country over the summer were farcical and we can't keep going in and out of lock downs and destroying livelihoods or spending public money like we are.

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Surely, with how long this is dragging on and with stories of mutations, we have to learn to live with this somehow without resorting to such extreme measures.

I don't want to start an argument about economy Vs mortality, but it's factual now to say that some of the poorest paid workers are suffering due to restrictions. The economic disaster now playing out in this country bis costing lives.

We were told over by Easter, over by Summer, over by the time the kids went back to school, over by Christmas, now we're being told that, if a vaccine is plausible (I don't think it is) were looking at the second half of next year.

When will we have to take the plunge and semi permanently restructure our health services, public restrictions, economy and ways of life so we can get back to some sort of normality? The chaotic changing restrictions across the country over the summer were farcical and we can't keep going in and out of lock downs and destroying livelihoods or spending public money like we are.

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You can't not put measures in place to stop hospitals get completely over run. Aside from the obvious direct loss of life, that would likely genuinely be the start of the breakdown of society.

Measures are only ever going to be a delay, we could even get down to actually zero cases but international travel means it'd soon be here again. It's not going to be said politically, but heard immunity is exactly what is happening, but it needs to be done slowly to minimise deaths overall.
 
I agree, these pandemics and new viruses will only stop once the world treats animals with a bit more respect.

Whilst I totally agree with this sentiment and even so much so that I haven't eaten any meat for over a year now (yay me)...there's no way on earth covid19 came from animals or bats as they claim. I just don't buy it at all. This virus has come from that lab in Wuhan Province. I don't think intentionally but I think there's been a leak and it got out of control.

They have these animal wet markets in all areas of China, as well as other countries in the East too, and the very province that they say Covid19 originated in just happened to have an institute of Virology. Where there's smoke there's usually a fire.
 
Whilst I totally agree with this sentiment and even so much so that I haven't eaten any meat for over a year now (yay me)...there's no way on earth covid19 came from animals or bats as they claim. I just don't buy it at all. This virus has come from that lab in Wuhan Province. I don't think intentionally but I think there's been a leak and it got out of control.

They have these animal wet markets in all areas of China, as well as other countries in the East too, and the very province that they say Covid19 originated in just happened to have an institute of Virology. Where there's smoke there's usually a fire.

I also thought the same, however, there was a paper i saw published 2 years prior to now which was from scientists who found a coronavirus which they believed could jump to humans. I'll see if I can find it. Anyway they didnnt get taken seriously and didnt get the funding to continue their work.
 
You can't not put measures in place to stop hospitals get completely over run. Aside from the obvious direct loss of life, that would likely genuinely be the start of the breakdown of society.

Measures are only ever going to be a delay, we could even get down to actually zero cases but international travel means it'd soon be here again. It's not going to be said politically, but heard immunity is exactly what is happening, but it needs to be done slowly to minimise deaths overall.
I know there's no way I know of of being able to prevent that. But I'm wondering how there a countries in western Europe who have done so much better protecting their people, yet haven't caused the damage to the economy that ours has.

We seem to have the worst of both worlds. A huge death toll, unprecedented peace time borrowing and an economy that's predicted to have shrunk 11% in less than a year by the end of these 4 weeks. It seems to be a pretty catastrophic record in the UK and I feel there must be more to it than the government being late to the party with everything. They, or we, must be doing something very wrong.

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I know there's no way I know of of being able to prevent that. But I'm wondering how there a countries in western Europe who have done so much better protecting their people, yet haven't caused the damage to the economy that ours has.

We seem to have the worst of both worlds. A huge death toll, unprecedented peace time borrowing and an economy that's predicted to have shrunk 11% in less than a year by the end of these 4 weeks. It seems to be a pretty catastrophic record in the UK and I feel there must be more to it than the government being late to the party with everything. They, or we, must be doing something very wrong.

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Or our circumstances are just different. We are a much more densely populated nation than most you'd be comparing to. A virus which spreads by person to person contact is going to spread much more quickly in a country where you are much more likely to come into contact with other people.

Also, I've not looked into the finances of nations across Europe particularly, but the results must be of a similar nature where the government are financing great swathes of the population on furlough? Are we really significantly worse off comparatively?
 
Or our circumstances are just different. We are a much more densely populated nation than most you'd be comparing to. A virus which spreads by person to person contact is going to spread much more quickly in a country where you are much more likely to come into contact with other people.

Also, I've not looked into the finances of nations across Europe particularly, but the results must be of a similar nature where the government are financing great swathes of the population on furlough? Are we really significantly worse off comparatively?
You make a solid point there. We are densely populated.

Yes on the finance point. The EU average downturn is expected to be between 6-7% shrinkage of their economies in 2020. Germany from memory is negative 6% but I could be wrong on that. The United States is looking at contracting 4%.

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Yes on the finance point. The EU average downturn is expected to be between 6-7% shrinkage of their economies in 2020. Germany from memory is negative 6% but I could be wrong on that. The United States is looking at contracting 4%.

A little poke about online and I found

COUNTRY / immediate spend / deferred liability / liquidity assistance
Belgium 1.4% 4.8% 21.9%
Denmark 5.5% 7.2% 4.1%
France 4.6% 8.7% 14.2%
Germany 8.3% 7.3% 24.3%
Greece 3.1% 1.2% 2.1%
Hungary 0.4% 8.3% 0.0%
Italy 3.4% 13.2% 32.1%
Netherlands 3.7% 7.9% 3.4%
Portugal 2.5% 11.1% 5.5%
Spain 3.7% 0.8% 9.2%
UK 8.0% 2.3% 15.4%
United States 9.1% 2.6% 2.6%

Not an easy read from a cut and paste of a table, but the figures express COVID 19 costs to government as a percentage of 2019 GDP. Does not show us in quite such a land of doom and gloom; the likes of Germany and America have had a higher direct cost. A lot of counties with a lower direct cost have pushed that money into a deferred position, indicating their people and businesses are expected to directly pay back their relief at a later date (whether they will do is another matter), something it seems we are not doing anything like as much of.

I know that's a different matter to economic downturn, but that is all guesswork at the moment with some quite wide ranging figures being banded about. Have to wait and see on that front.
 
A quick calculation and that makes Italy and Germany only in a worse position?

I was only talking about economy contraction for clarification but that's very insightful reading. Thanks for posting.

Of course, what also needs to be taken into account is that every country has different healthcare systems, a different welfare state setup and different taxation rates. This will also be relative to their different economic outcomes. Still some eye watering numbers from the western world there.

I do wonder how long we can all afford to carry on like this. A large argument from the Trump campaign has been that tighter restrictions under a Biden administration would cause hardship for lower paid workers.

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With the pantomime going on in the US this one seems to of slipped through the news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54851042

Potentially very serious news coming out of Denmark that has resulted in an immediate ban on all travel from that country to the UK with very few exceptions.
If this mutation is indeed current vaccine development resistant then we are in effect back to square one.
 
To quote that article...

The coronavirus, like all viruses, mutates over time, but there is no evidence that any of the mutations pose an increased danger to people.

The World Health Organization has said it is too early to jump to conclusions.
Also, I can't see anywhere mention that it is a mutation (or relation) of COVID-19... don't forget, coronavirus describes a large group of over 4,000 different viruses, the majority of which are nowhere near as harmful or infectious as COVID-19.

I'm not saying that this story should be ignored... but the media are certainly making a meal out of it. As they do with most things.
 
Ive been reading some scientific papers on this which have been published. There are 3 mutations of concern. 2 of them involve the spike protein which binds to the ACE2 receptors in the lungs. The mutation appears to bypass any antibodies. For those who are unclear, antibodies are Y shaped proteins in the body which prevent these spikes "sticking" to the receptors in the lungs and causing the infection. The spike protein has changed to prevent the antibodies "getting in the way". So yes, it could prevent a future vaccine from working. The other mutation is still not clear but appears to allow the virus to infect Mink easily so it may be of no consequence to humans.

Personally I think its too late to stop this variant. Over 200 people have it in Denmark already, there have been 3 flights into the UK already this morning from Denmark and a ferry. There are open borders in the EU where people can travel in and out unchecked. I think scientists are now racing to find out exactly what this new variant means for the human population. Danish scientists also found cats near the mink farms also infected with the new variant.

The other problem is that Mink have been known to act as reservoirs for viruses. Bit like HIV, what this means is that you can never eradicate the virus from that living creature, unless, it stops living. This means it can mutate, change, evade vaccines to its heart content. Anyone on twitter I recommend following an excellent virologist on there called "Dr Emma Hodcroft " @firefoxx66 . Goes in to detail about findings, concerns etc. You can read a thread she has recently posted about the Danish Mink concerns here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1324095151984312324.html
 
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