The Brexit Thread

[Rick]

When we see our 27 neighbours recover economically over the next few years, whilst we're wallowing in a mess of our own making, then we can pretty much assume that any economic hits that we face next year will be as a result of Brexit.

I think assuming on any economic matters is pretty and naive and simplistic at the best of times, let alone in the middle of a pandemic.

It's also notoriously difficult to measure as well, as Covid has not impacted all countries equally, nor were they all in the same shape before the pandemic struck. With different impacts of Covid and different responses, assuming doesn't really come in to it.

Naturally, the core drivers of economies will be a factor. If you have a strong manufacturing sector, that will likely bounce back with a different profile than an economy built on tourism, hospitality and experiences.

 

[BigT]

A reasonable level of worry demonstrates due care and concern.

I'm not sat here sweating over it. Nor hyperventilating. Nor having sleepless nights.

If someone said "I'm not worried about Brexit" suggest a lack of concern - or even warmth towards it.

Proportionate worry

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Pluk is correct only worry about things you can control, you will be ok your not likely to loose your job either way.

I don’t mean to be rude but anyone working in the public sector probably hasn’t much of a clue what the private sector has been doing to prepare, don’t just listen to the BBC scare stories.
Our company has spent the last 2 years preparing for this deal or no deal as have most companies, we are as ready as can be, will there be disruption either way? yes but nothing like what 2020 has done to us.

 

[D4n]

Imagine where we'd be if the population collectively only "worried about things we can control".

There would be no debate, no change, no democracy. Heck, what's the point in this discussion board then?

How patronising.

 

[Dave]

Pluk is correct only worry about things you can control, you will be ok your not likely to loose your job either way.

I don’t mean to be rude but anyone working in the public sector probably hasn’t much of a clue what the private sector has been doing to prepare, don’t just listen to the BBC scare stories.
Our company has spent the last 2 years preparing for this deal or no deal as have most companies, we are as ready as can be, will there be disruption either way? yes but nothing like what 2020 has done to us.

Thats funny because those in the private sector seem to have strong opinions about the public sector. And of all news outlets the BBC is the most balanced, perfect no, but as balanced as it can be, certainly compared to the print media.

No one is dumb enough to think companies have not tried to plan for this but the level of potential planning depends on the level of “just in time” transport of goods. Now if your company works in this arena It will be fascinating to hear how things are going in January.

Personally I think brexit is a pointless exercise, built on lies that gains us nothing and even small disruption is not worth it. I’m not sure it’s going to be a disaster like some but no deal whilst our PM and government are so useless and incompetent is cause for concern.

 

[Alsty]

I find it disingenuous that the PM calls it an "Australia style" deal. To me that just sums up the whole thing... that those who know what Brexit means are not levelling with the public.

You might argue it was sold under false pretences. Had they been frank with the public and said, "you'll get sovereignty, control of your laws and borders but there will be a significant economic hit, there will be tariffs and extra red tape to do business or visit the EU" then I wouldn't mind the referendum or its outcome. If people voted on that fact then fine. But they did not. It was sold as only positives, that there will be no downsides, we'll have our cake and eat it... and even now the government still can't be honest to us. That's what I find incredible.

Nonetheless, as others have said, we're in the boat together and can't change it. We'll have to weather the storm. I just can't help but feel that's not what the majority of the public actually voted for, nor want.

 

[pluk]

Imagine where we'd be if the population collectively only "worried about things we can control".

There would be no debate, no change, no democracy. Heck, what's the point in this discussion board then?

How patronising.

Worrying is helpful as part of decision making, it would have been helpful 5 years ago on this matter but clearly not enough people shared this worry. After the event though, when any level of decision making is out of your hands, worry is futile. Is worry going to stop Brexit? No, it's just negative spent energy.

I'm sure some people do have something to worry about on a personal level, as Astro's edited post there maybe something that can be done to plan and prepare for various scenarios where Brexit will change how he is able to visit family or affect their residential status, but my initial response was to MattN who from what he had said, doesn't have anything he could possibly do to prepare for no deal so may as well not worry about it.

 

[Benzin]

Companies have 3 weeks to prepare for a decision (but we don't know WHAT decision) over Christmas where most places will be closed or on minimum staffing levels.

Yeah it's going to be chaos. But the government will just say "well we did TELL you to prepare for Brexit", even if they didn't expressly say how.

Can already forsee my lot having issues getting additional stock of materials. Covid has already affected that so I dread to think what additional delays will come through a badly planned departure.

Think telling people not to worry when this will potentially mess their future up (be it reduced job opportunities, travel or increased expenditure) just because they can't control it is very apt of how Brexit has been approached by those in charge. Playing a game of chicken with the lives of the nation. Again. Against far better players who force them to constantly move the goalposts to ensure their supporters think they've "won".

 

[RoyJess]

I don't think the British public understand what the consequences of No Deal really are. I think a lot of people have been blinded by the "project FEAR" group, who basically attempted to shut down discussion surrounding it and have done for some time. The "we've had enough of experts" types.

I hate to say it, but the easiest conclusion I came to before voting in 2016 was to vote remain in order to prevent the chaos I foresaw.

And, to be honest, the way Johnson and his wreckless colleagues are going - the chaos is only just beginning.

I too foreseen this from the start, hence why I have always been pro Remain. The Brexiteers will still protest that they are right and we are better off out.

There is no such thing as a free lunch, we can't expect to have our cake and eat it. If we want a free trade deal, we have to comply to EU laws. Divorce is always messy and I don't half know it, I've been divorced twice.

The problem is that Brexit was eventually run by Boris and Mr Cummins who we both know are very economical with the truth, wreckless and have always over promised and under delivered.

Brexit is just pure fantasy and always has been

Covid and Brexit is a combination for total disaster.

 

[Rob]

The EU is our biggest trade partner. It does not take a genius to work out that having no trade deal with the EU is going to negatively impact pretty much everyone one way or another. Not least because products that we buy; whether that be food, clothing or cars, is going to become more expensive.

But it's all okay. We can stop those pesky immigrants from coming over and doing the jobs that most Brits do not want to do anyway.

 

[Craig]

Telling someone "not to worry" about the biggest upheaval of their lives which can potentially affect their employment, or at least that of their family and friends. Or "not to worry" despite it causing massive changes in just having the ability to work or travel abroad. "Not to worry" about easily get the products and services they're used to getting. "Not to worry" as those in the poorest areas and in subsidised industries who've received EU assistance in the past (and as recently as this recent covid outbreak) have no idea if any sort of equivalent help is coming from the UK, or if there will be any money to even do so. This is despite less than 3 weeks to go.

Simply saying "not to worry" about this is about as useful as telling someone suffering with depression to "cheer up". This has real impact to everyone, not just the private sector, and it's criminal how far those goalposts have been moved over the years as the lies continue to pour out.

 

[BigT]

COVID will turn out to be a far bigger upheaval than Brexit ever will be, £500 billion of debts and counting that will take years and years to pay off, I will be long gone by the time that’s paid off but it has effectively mortgaged our children and their children’s future.

The fact is there isn’t actually a better time to leave, deal or no deal the economies of the UK and the EU are both on their knees and COVID will see a huge reset of both economic areas.
As seen with the vaccine the one that can react quickest will take the spoils although I will agree this had little to do with Brexit unlike was reported.
The EU is an oil tanker that takes a long time to manoeuvre into position whereas the UK could position itself more of a battleship, that is also what the EU fears which is why they are trying hard to make it as difficult as possible.

 

[Craig]

So we have one leg cut off due to covid, there's never a better time to lose the other one? Covid has caused a huge upheaval in people's lives, why is now the best time to cause another one? We've left the EU, that bit is done. But instead of hammering out some sort of remotely sensible deal with some bits to sort at a later date, the UK sought to publicly seek to break international law. That idiotic action means that the EU, and quite rightly of them too want everything agreed in a legal treaty right now rather than have some awkward issues such as (bizarrely) fishing set out in a good faith political declaration to then sort out from a treaty standpoint at a later date.

The battleship analogy is great and all, but for a battleship to function it needs to have the ability to easily gain the resources to operate. With that cut off with a complete lack of a trade deal against the wishes of the vast, vast majority of the public as per recent polls, then that battleship is pretty damn useless.

 

[Rick]

COVID will turn out to be a far bigger upheaval than Brexit ever will be, £500 billion of debts and counting that will take years and years to pay off, I will be long gone by the time that’s paid off but it has effectively mortgaged our children and their children’s future.

A healthy trading relationship with our biggest market will help lessen the impact of Covid - they don't exist in isolation, that sounds like something out of the Tory press office.

 

[BigT]

Of course it would be really handy to have a trade agreement but not at all costs.
The EU never went into the negotiations in good faith to start with and that’s why brinkmanship was needed to even get them to start talking legal texts, the part about breaking international law was long after negotiations started and it worked, we have an agreement on the Irish border now.
More talk today of temporary measures on the EU side, this is how negotiations work.

I can see this is still an emotive subject with some still not willing to accept the result.
It’s done, finished with and we have left already, all the old arguments no longer count, we will never go back.
Time to embrace the new relationship however it turns out.

 

[Dave]

Of course it would be really handy to have a trade agreement but not at all costs.
The EU never went into the negotiations in good faith to start with and that’s why brinkmanship was needed to even get them to start talking legal texts, the part about breaking international law was long after negotiations started and it worked, we have an agreement on the Irish border now.
More talk today of temporary measures on the EU side, this is how negotiations work.

I can see this is still an emotive subject with some still not willing to accept the result.
It’s done, finished with and we have left already, all the old arguments no longer count, we will never go back.
Time to embrace the new relationship however it turns out.

Its not about accepting the result though is it? I thought and still think Brexit is absolutely stupid. But we are not talking about whether the uk does or does not leave the EU, as you say it’s done.

This is about a trade agreement to prevent the worst possible brexit from happening (the sort of brexit all the brexit proponents said would never happen as it would be the easiest deal in history). Hell they even said we would stay in the ECC, and that we would have loads of trade deals by now, and that we wouldn’t remove protection on food quality..... all turned out to be false:

We had an agreement on the Irish border in 2019, the UK gov backtracked on it and have now capitulated and returned to the original agreement because the incoming US president told us we had to. Just because Michael Gove says they have a brand new agreement doesn’t make it true.

Todays talks of temporary measures is about basic access to air and road traffic and the EU have tagged expectations on that. This has nothing to do with UK’s canny negotiations and is actually a final “if you want your planes to fly you better agree to our fishermen in your waters”.

You say the EU went into the negotiations in bad faith, this is absolute fluff. They went into it as you would expect, to protect their interests. They didn’t vote for this shower of idiocy so why should they do anything different? It’s only us brits who seem to think we should be given special treatment from every other nation. Even with all this so called clever brinkmanship from the UK the EU still haven’t budged so it’s not really working is it.

As it stands all we have achieved with brexit is to copy 50% of the existing trade deals we had with the EU and threaten to cripple the nation by cutting away from our biggest trading partner. Very nimble little battleship we have become! No nimble negotiations will get away from the fact that trade is almost always dictated by geography, you can get your Australian trade deal but it’s still on the other side of the world so any fresh food will remain expensive as it has to fly here. Now maybe Johnson is not as big a numpty as he is appearing and a last minute deal will happen so he can say to the lunatics in his party that he tried his best. Or things get more interesting come January, how interesting I don’t know.

 

[Craig]

People haven't had a choice but to accept the result, so that point doesn't really fly. As you said, we've left already. However the points people are making now are valid and they are completely in their rights to make them.

The fact we do not have a trade deal with mere weeks to go is a complete failure of statesmanship. It would be nice instead of the blither and bluster of smiling anecdotes from Johnson that we actually got some hard facts on what the UK are offering as a counter against the EU.

A trade deal with our closest neighbours is not 'really handy', it is absolutely 100% essential as an island nation to allow us to function without causing major impacts. It wasn't too long ago that no deal was dismissed as "project fear" and a million to one chance. The fact that no deal has been rebranded as an "Australian deal" only reinforces the fact that even the government themselves see No Deal as a completely idiotic option. A rebranding in name only in some sort of weak attempt to show that 'project fear' wasn't real. The whole farce has become a race to the bottom as though reneging on the remotest thing in discussion with the EU is some sort of 'loss'.

There is zero brinksmanship in the mess the Internal Market Bill created. It decreased our standing not just with the EU, but with many other countries around the world. The exact countries we want future trade relations with are now considerably more likely to not trust us on our word.

As for Ireland, of course we have an agreement on it but that would have happened regardless. Ireland as a member of the EU do not want to return of the troubles. Likewise, the temporary measures suggested by the EU are to assist businesses on the continent. However, they are on condition of the UK maintaining those same rights - a level playing field. You know, the same level playing field that the UK are not willing to accept in any sort of trade agreement, so I fail to see how any of these temporary measures that the EU suggested will be either accepted by the UK, or serve anything other than to kick the can down the road for another few months to be in the same situation again.

 

[Rick]

I can see this is still an emotive subject with some still not willing to accept the result.
It’s done, finished with and we have left already, all the old arguments no longer count, we will never go back.
Time to embrace the new relationship however it turns out.

You are conflating the exiting of the EU and the future trade relationship, which are very different things.

Blindly embracing something that could be fundamentally good, bad or somewhere in-between is nuts.

 

[pluk]

I guess I'm just not a worrier. I'm the sort of person who finishes work and is able to forget it exists until the next time I'm in. I know others aren't like that and it's not necessarily choice.

I see a big difference between concern and worry, just semantics I suppose but a concern driving healthy interest and understanding of a situation and taking steps to protect yourself in ways you can from possible outcomes is obviously a good thing, whatever you call it.

I hope noone here is particularly badly effected by however this plays out.

 

[RoyJess]

I can see this is still an emotive subject with some still not willing to accept the result.
It’s done, finished with and we have left already, all the old arguments no longer count, we will never go back.
Time to embrace the new relationship however it turns out.

I've accepted the result....

...I sure the feeling mutual where as some not willing to accept that this has left us in a big mess and leaving was a big mistake which will have consequences for us all for many generations to come.

 

[imanautie]

I guess I'm just not a worrier. I'm the sort of person who finishes work and is able to forget it exists until the next time I'm in. I know others aren't like that and it's not necessarily choice.

I see a big difference between concern and worry, just semantics I suppose but a concern driving healthy interest and understanding of a situation and taking steps to protect yourself in ways you can from possible outcomes is obviously a good thing, whatever you call it.

I hope noone here is particularly badly effected by however this plays out.

I know it's going to have a direct impact on my job regardless (customs clerk), so it would be nice if we are going to go no deal the government officially give up on getting a deal so we know what we are doing.