Coronavirus

[Skyscraper]

Looks like a fair few airlines have decided to still enforce masks on flights after the 19th.

 

[Craig]

Recent polls have shown quite a large majority of people still want to wear masks on public transport. Airlines already have an uphill battle to try to get people to book as it is, so if enforcing mask wearing on their flights helps toward encouraging people to book and to keep their employees safe then they should go for it.

 

[tayspru]

Looks like a fair few airlines have decided to still enforce masks on flights after the 19th.

This will be to protect operations as much as anything else. While the risk of passengers contracting Covid on an aircraft is probably relatively low, a passenger also sits in one place for one flight and then goes about their day. Going by typical short haul flights, the flight attendants on the other hand will interact with about 800 passengers a day over 4 separate flights. So masks for all will reduce the probability of the crew members having to isolate - too many staff isolating would cause the flights to have to be cancelled so retaining masks for the time being until vaccination rates worldwide match the U.K. isn’t a terrible idea

 

[rob666]

Just had amazing service from the NHS in my local hospital, naughty little neck lump removed, absolutely top class service, one night stay, passing through the hands of about fifty people.
Should have happened a full year ago, but "benign" (non cancerous) and covid got in the way.
The staff said I timed it "lucky".
Covid secure ward, all tested, my tests done at a "pitstop" at the hospital, drive through, timed, zero wait, then three days strict quarantine.
Every member of staff was absolutely spot on with hygene and masks, and top notch quality care throughout.
Own ensuite room with shower, free phone calls and tv all morning, nhs website and radio, and reasonably decent food...soft diet!
The main topic of conversation was "running wild day", and how long before the next NHS overload.
The massed opinion was...same as last year.

 

[BigT]

Hospital admissions data shows that vaccinated people are being admitted. And a small proportion are dying. It’s fair to say the risks are reduced, pre-vaccination the admission rate for Covid was 1-in-10 now it’s closer to 1-in-45. Obviously this extrapolates down into deaths quite dramatically.

That is why I support the decision to relax the restrictions. The reason I think masks should still be worn on public transport and in shops are:

1) For many these are essential activities and not everyone can be vaccinated, we are effectively saying those who can’t be vaccinated or the vaccine hasn’t taken hold (I’m not talking about anti-vaxxers) can not use public transport or shops safely.

2) Part of the reason masks work well isn’t always infection avoidance but reduction of viral load. The course of an infection is different if you where infected with an initial dose of 4 million viral particles than if you get a few thousand (your body has longer to mount a response before the virus gets a good grip the lower the viral load you receive).

I have worn surgical masks all my working life, people over exaggerate the impact they are having on their lives (I have no sympathy for those crying foul on masks but happy to smoke). If you do not have severe COPD or autism/ learning difficulties it is no big deal and just helps further minimise the risks particularly as infection rates are still high.

As I say I’m glad social distancing is being relaxed and I’m glad all business can open and although I’m too old for night clubs and have enjoyed having my booze brought to me whilst I keep my fat arse on a seat I’m glad the option to walk up to a bar is returning. I do think masks in certain scenarios would have been sensible.

Also stop referring to scientists as doom and gloom merchants, their job is to describe the risks. It’s the government that have to use that information to make decisions. Blaming scientists for their advice is like blaming the weatherman you went out in the rain, they advise they don’t decide.

Yes some vaccinated people are being admitted to hospital but very few and mainly old and frail.
The vast majority are not vaccinated as even Dr Gloom admitted at yesterday’s press conference.
Dr Gloom and Prof. Doom is a perfect nickname for Whittey and Vallance, they are the most pessimistic pair I’ve ever heard and have been found out twisting the figures on more than one occasion to make them look worse than they actually are, when they start being honest I’ll call them by their correct names.

On masks I never have and still don’t agree they do much except make things worse.
Someone wearing the same piece of cloth over their mouth and nose all day for weeks on end is just a breeding ground for bacteria, I don’t know anybody that washes them.
They are not part of our culture and never will be, if people wish to keep wearing them then good luck to them but I suspect after a few weeks nobody will be wearing them.
Businesses that carry on trying to force people to wear them will soon change their tune when they start losing money because of it.

It won’t surprise you to learn I don’t use public transport anyway, I have a nice comfortable 4x4 that is a lot more pleasant to travel around in so I’m not too fussed either way on public transport .

 

[rob666]

Sorry to correct you there, people of all ages, vaccinated and not, are being admitted to hospital with covid, in increasing numbers.
Lots more young people because they go out in crowded places, first hand reports from the workers, today.
I too drive a nice big (shed) 4*4, but I care a great deal about people on public transport, but I'm not into trolling people who choose not to drive.
I also know hundreds of people who have dozens of masks, and boxes of disposable ones that are replaced daily.
Doom and Gloom...grow up, they are top qualified scientists, what are your qualifications on epidemiology, apart from "the school of hard knocks"?

 

[BigT]

Sorry to correct you there, people of all ages, vaccinated and not, are being admitted to hospital with covid, in increasing numbers.
Lots more young people because they go out in crowded places, first hand reports from the workers, today.
I too drive a nice big (shed) 4*4, but I care a great deal about people on public transport, but I'm not into trolling people who choose not to drive.
I also know hundreds of people who have dozens of masks, and boxes of disposable ones that are replaced daily.
Doom and Gloom...grow up, they are top qualified scientists, what are your qualifications on epidemiology, apart from "the school of hard knocks"?

Fair points I guess, although I disagree, that’s the beautiful thing about forums.

Epidemiologists maybe, communicators definitely not.

 

[rob666]

More knowledge in their field than you, but I agree, every opinion is sacred.
Edit...Lots of younger age group covid sufferers entering hospital are discovering they had a pre existing condition that they were not aware of, locally diabetes is being found in much younger groups, as is obesity.

 

[GaryH]

I’ve seen reports of people being admitted to hospitals who have been double vaccinated and ending up in ICU so just having the full two jabs does not make people immune.

It would have been better to open things up but keep the rule of masks on transport, in buildings, supermarkets etc until we know what is going to happen with infection rates and more importantly, hospital admissions.

It’s going to be very difficult in the future to u turn on this should the winter be difficult.

 

[rob666]

The autumn will be difficult!

 

[Dave]

Yes some vaccinated people are being admitted to hospital but very few and mainly old and frail.
The vast majority are not vaccinated as even Dr Gloom admitted at yesterday’s press conference.
Dr Gloom and Prof. Doom is a perfect nickname for Whittey and Vallance, they are the most pessimistic pair I’ve ever heard and have been found out twisting the figures on more than one occasion to make them look worse than they actually are, when they start being honest I’ll call them by their correct names.

On masks I never have and still don’t agree they do much except make things worse.
Someone wearing the same piece of cloth over their mouth and nose all day for weeks on end is just a breeding ground for bacteria, I don’t know anybody that washes them.
They are not part of our culture and never will be, if people wish to keep wearing them then good luck to them but I suspect after a few weeks nobody will be wearing them.
Businesses that carry on trying to force people to wear them will soon change their tune when they start losing money because of it.

It won’t surprise you to learn I don’t use public transport anyway, I have a nice comfortable 4x4 that is a lot more pleasant to travel around in so I’m not too fussed either way on public transport .

It might surprise you to know that despite the modern sensibility that “opinion” is of higher value that “truth”, reality doesn’t care about anyone’s opinion

The evidence is there on masks, the evidence is there on the remaining risks, calling scientists names might give you a bit of a thrill, but it doesn’t change the facts (name one cited time that either have actually lied or twisted statistics). Name calling and conspiracy rambling leads to crazies like those two numpties attacking these people who have done nothing but the job they where asked to do.

I don’t travel on public transport, I don’t have to experience something day to day to be able to consider the impact that might be felt by those that do. It’s not exactly rocket science to do so.

As I have made clear I agree the rules need to relax, mostly because we don’t want to push the third wave into autumn/ winter (as the scientists have recommended), but to isolate people who can’t be vaccinated and remain vulnerable for the sake of a little longer wearing masks just seems cold and cruel to me.

And I say all this as my place of work starts expanding its Covid capacity for the third time by shutting down elective cases……

 

[GaryH]

Same here, we escalated our opel status today due to bed shortages and admissions of Covid patients.

 

[Matt N]

I think the thing to remember is that the majority of hospital admissions & deaths are among the unvaccinated, but far from all hospital admissions & deaths are among the unvaccinated. As such, you’re still vulnerable to hospitalisation or death to some degree irregardless of whether you’re unvaccinated or fully vaccinated; being fully vaccinated reduces the chance significantly, but you’re still a tiny bit susceptible regardless of vaccination status.

Last time I checked, I think the proportion of hospitalisations & deaths that were unvaccinated people was about 2/3, and the remaining 1/3 was people who have had either 1 or 2 doses of vaccine.

 

[BigT]

It might surprise you to know that despite the modern sensibility that “opinion” is of higher value that “truth”, reality doesn’t care about anyone’s opinion

The evidence is there on masks, the evidence is there on the remaining risks, calling scientists names might give you a bit of a thrill, but it doesn’t change the facts (name one cited time that either have actually lied or twisted statistics). Name calling and conspiracy rambling leads to crazies like those two numpties attacking these people who have done nothing but the job they where asked to do.

I don’t travel on public transport, I don’t have to experience something day to day to be able to consider the impact that might be felt by those that do. It’s not exactly rocket science to do so.

As I have made clear I agree the rules need to relax, mostly because we don’t want to push the third wave into autumn/ winter (as the scientists have recommended), but to isolate people who can’t be vaccinated and remain vulnerable for the sake of a little longer wearing masks just seems cold and cruel to me.

And I say all this as my place of work starts expanding its Covid capacity for the third time by shutting down elective cases……

I will say this, scientists should not be making press conferences or interviews in the press, that’s not their job.
There have been several occasions when they have been found out, Whittey was hauled in front of the parliamentary committee for using out of date figures when persuading BJ to start the second lockdown.

As for hospitals filling up with COVID patients I simply don’t believe it, the released data doesn’t back that up.

On face masks I will leave it at this, feel free to wear one but I won’t be for the simple reason every time I wear one all day I have a sore throat for 2 days after, it’s not healthy to breath in your own exhaust all day.

 

[Craig]

As for hospitals filling up with COVID patients I simply don’t believe it, the released data doesn’t back that up.

It sounds like you simply don't want to believe it more than anything else. The fact is, there is a substantial increase in hospital patients. Boris Johnson said it in his statement on Monday, the data does back this up as does what the likes of @GaryH and @Dave are saying from working in the sector.

The gov.uk dashboard has at least a week's data lag on hospital data, but even then it's still showing a clear rise. Here's the UK wide graph showing daily admission for Covid-19 across the UK. This only goes up to 30th June, and shows 406 admissions on 30th June, following 358 admissions on 29th June and 306 on the 28th June:

However, dig a little deeper and you can get the information from NHS England showing the number beds occupied by Covid-19 patients which is updated at 8am every morning. Let's take a look at the number of beds occupied by Covid patients since the last government dashboard updated on the 30th June. Remember, this is just England, not UK Wide:

That's a hefty 33% increase in the space of a week, so you can see why hospitals are amending their alert levels and cancelling electives accordingly.

Now you may say that those admissions are perhaps not for serious cases so aren't as resource intensive, and that may be the case to some extent. However, the number of patients requiring mechanical ventilation is also rising:

Again, that's another 33% increase. Now I'm not using these figures to argue for an extended lockdown, I want to get out and about as much as anyone else. And of course, these figures are far below what we saw at previous peaks. But, you cannot say that data does not show that the pressure is increasing on the NHS, and the speed of the increase is getting worse as time goes on.

Whilst the director of NHS England has said that hospitals can cope, it's clear due to the level the NHS works at that this would have to come at a cost. So that means reallocating staff from elsewhere and cancelling elective procedures, as pointed out already by Dave and Gary. Remember, this is with current restrictions, long prior to the removal of pretty much everything come 19th July. That's why after a bit of thought over the last few days that I'm perplexed at the wholesale removal of things like mask wearing on public transport, a minor inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Rob]

The two things I am most bemused about is the removal of mask wearing on public transport and in shops, plus the lack of a covid certification scheme for allowing major events (and perhaps nightclubs) to open at full capacity.

The former is straight forward, I can think of no good public health or economic reason to scrap mask wearing on public transport or in shops. The only reasons I can think of are political; mininster wanting to keep backbench MPs and certain newspaper editors happy. Because to some masks seemingly equate to lockdown.

The latter I accept is more controversial. But it does beg the question of why have the government bothered with the very extensive Events Research Programme only to say at the end of it we are going to have a free for all. Now if the results of the research have come back and said that mitigating factors have little impact on tranmission then fair enough, and maybe this has happened but has not been widely publicised. But to me it makes sense to have to show either proof of full vaccination or proof of a negative (free) rapid test to attend an event at full capacity. It is not a safety net that will catch every case, but it would reduce the risk at these events that could easily become super spreader events.

I'm due to return to Leicester City matches from next month, and I must admit that with high covid rates and no mitigation I am much more wary of it than I was before. I'm wondering if the Premier League (and other event organisers) may mandate their own schemes for the time being.

 

[Craig]

The two things I am most bemused about is the removal of mask wearing on public transport and in shops, plus the lack of a covid certification scheme for allowing major events (and perhaps nightclubs) to open at full capacity.

The former is straight forward, I can think of no good public health or economic reason to scrap mask wearing on public transport or in shops. The only reasons I can think of are political; mininster wanting to keep backbench MPs and certain newspaper editors happy. Because to some masks seemingly equate to lockdown.

The latter I accept is more controversial. But it does beg the question of why have the government bothered with the very extensive Events Research Programme only to say at the end of it we are going to have a free for all. Now if the results of the research have come back and said that mitigating factors have little impact on tranmission then fair enough, and maybe this has happened but has not been widely publicised. But to me it makes sense to have to show either proof of full vaccination or proof of a negative (free) rapid test to attend an event at full capacity. It is not a safety net that will catch every case, but it would reduce the risk at these events that could easily become super spreader events.

I'm due to return to Leicester City matches from next month, and I must admit that with high covid rates and no mitigation I am much more wary of it than I was before. I'm wondering if the Premier League (and other event organisers) may mandate their own schemes for the time being.

Considering the work and no doubt massive cost put into running these test events, it does seem like a really strange decision to just reverse the whole thing. I guess some organisers or their insurers will decide to run testing regardless, but it's another decision I'm a little confused by considering again the minor inconvenience it'd cause.

 

[Tibble]

Im going to keep a mask with me or at least in the car for more densely populated areas. I think more companies will come out and say they will require masks for those who can in their shops / trains / restaurants

if this pandemic has taught me one thing is that people are gross

I was in buxton town centre the other day and a guy moved his mask to his chin, coughed without covering his mouth, spat his phlegm on the floor and then put it back up.

 

[Matt N]

I won’t lie, I’m starting to get more & more worried about the prospect of reopening on 19th July. As for my stance on masks; I still plan to wear mine in a number of situations after 19th July.

I know it’s not really for me to question the government’s decision-making, and I’m sure Boris & co are right and I’m wrong; they’re the ones seeing the data, and they’re the ones who know about COVID and what it will do in certain circumstances.

However, I feel like things are already getting quite dire on the COVID front (I know we can’t necessarily use case numbers as a metric anymore, but hospitalisations being up by 33% in a week isn’t good) without Step 4 happening, and despite the vaccines, I feel like reopening while the prevalence is so high could raise the prevalence to dangerous levels, and I’m fearing that it could be our worst wave yet for deaths & hospitalisations.

I know that many are craving a slice of normality, and in many ways I am too, but when restrictions were ultimately lifted, I wanted to be able to say that I thought we’d never go back into restrictions. If I’m being honest, I’m not entirely sure if I can say that with what’s already going on with the numbers. Government ministers have refused to rule out the prospect of having a fourth full lockdown in the months ahead, and I’m getting incredibly worried that things could get the worst they ever have done on the COVID front, in spite of the vaccines.

Everyone’s betting on the vaccines, but while I admit they’re still very effective at stopping severe COVID, hospitalisation & death, I’m starting to have increasing doubts about the vaccines’ efficacy against the Delta variant (Pfizer vaccine is now reportedly only 64% effective in Israel, compared with 94% beforehand); while they are still having an effect, I fear the effect is now too diminished for hospitalisations & deaths to stay at manageable levels. While the vaccines are of course still very effective against hospitalisation and death in those who’ve received them, they now seem to have substantially reduced efficacy against mild disease/transmission with the Delta variant being thrown into the picture, and there’s still a fair number of unvaccinated people, so COVID could still quite easily wreak havoc on our population.

To be brutally honest, I almost think it would be worth tightening restrictions again as opposed to loosening them with the way the numbers are going. Have one final short, sharp lockdown to really get the prevalence to extremely low levels before we unlock fully, and then it’ll be all the more fulfilling when we do remove restrictions, because there would be a much greater degree of certainty as to whether we’d need the restrictions again.

I know I’m probably worrying unnecessarily, and that ultimately Boris will be proved right and I will be proved wrong, but I’ll admit I’m really scared about the months to come…

 

[GaryH]

@Matt N agree with what you say above, however another sharp lockdown just won’t do much except lower numbers which won’t then rise again afterwards. We have to open up at some point.

What I would have liked is that at least 85% of the population have been double jabbbed before we open up fully. I think it’s just over 50% at the moment which I don’t think is enough.

I do feel concerned for the younger people who are working in all these jobs now serving all the more fortunate ones who have been vaccinated. It’s not right. We should all be equal and everyone should be offered the jab before we fully open up.