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Russia vs NATO
- Thread starter GaryH
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Matt.GC
TS Member
For the first time, Zelenski has indicated that he's willing to temporarily cede the 4 occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russians in return for NATO membership to protect the remainder of Ukraine.
news.sky.com
This concerns me. It has more of a whiff of Chamberlain and chums appeasing Hitler about it. Then he still went and invaded Poland anyway and used the break in hostilities to strengthen the German armed forces. Chamberlain for me was the worst Prime Minister of the last 100 years for his desperate and futile attempts at appeasing a madman when it was blindly obvious what Hitler was up to. The worst until Liz Truss came along of course.
The Kremlin has recently been showering praise on Trump. It's clear now that the Russian bear looks weak and embattled, but Putin wants back what he considers Russian/Soviet territory and I don't think he'll stop. It's also clear that Trump made outrageous promises about doing a deal within a single day, one that possibly involves just giving away huge chunks of Ukraine. Trump also isn't a fan of NATO, and Ukraine's hypothetical potential membership of it was Putin's main excuse for starting the war.
So could this be the start of appeasement? Zelenski is clearly reading something between the lines here, he wouldn't have said anything like this before he met with Trump in September. I think the unpredictability of both Trump and Putin, who share many similar traits, is the key thing to consider here. I can see a compromise being reached that neither includes all of the territories Putin wants, or full NATO membership for the rest of Ukraine, that kicks the can down the road for a bit to stop immediate hostilities. But aid think we all know that the words and promises of both Trump and Putin are utterly meaningless
Zelenskyy suggests 'hot phase' of Ukraine war could end in return for NATO membership if offered - even if seized land isn't returned immediately
The Ukrainian president told Sky News's chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country in order to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.
This concerns me. It has more of a whiff of Chamberlain and chums appeasing Hitler about it. Then he still went and invaded Poland anyway and used the break in hostilities to strengthen the German armed forces. Chamberlain for me was the worst Prime Minister of the last 100 years for his desperate and futile attempts at appeasing a madman when it was blindly obvious what Hitler was up to. The worst until Liz Truss came along of course.
The Kremlin has recently been showering praise on Trump. It's clear now that the Russian bear looks weak and embattled, but Putin wants back what he considers Russian/Soviet territory and I don't think he'll stop. It's also clear that Trump made outrageous promises about doing a deal within a single day, one that possibly involves just giving away huge chunks of Ukraine. Trump also isn't a fan of NATO, and Ukraine's hypothetical potential membership of it was Putin's main excuse for starting the war.
So could this be the start of appeasement? Zelenski is clearly reading something between the lines here, he wouldn't have said anything like this before he met with Trump in September. I think the unpredictability of both Trump and Putin, who share many similar traits, is the key thing to consider here. I can see a compromise being reached that neither includes all of the territories Putin wants, or full NATO membership for the rest of Ukraine, that kicks the can down the road for a bit to stop immediate hostilities. But aid think we all know that the words and promises of both Trump and Putin are utterly meaningless
For the first time, Zelenski has indicated that he's willing to temporarily cede the 4 occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russians in return for NATO membership to protect the remainder of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy suggests 'hot phase' of Ukraine war could end in return for NATO membership if offered - even if seized land isn't returned immediately
The Ukrainian president told Sky News's chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country in order to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.
This concerns me. It has more of a whiff of Chamberlain and chums appeasing Hitler about it. Then he still went and invaded Poland anyway and used the break in hostilities to strengthen the German armed forces. Chamberlain for me was the worst Prime Minister of the last 100 years for his desperate and futile attempts at appeasing a madman when it was blindly obvious what Hitler was up to. The worst until Liz Truss came along of course.
The Kremlin has recently been showering praise on Trump. It's clear now that the Russian bear looks weak and embattled, but Putin wants back what he considers Russian/Soviet territory and I don't think he'll stop. It's also clear that Trump made outrageous promises about doing a deal within a single day, one that possibly involves just giving away huge chunks of Ukraine. Trump also isn't a fan of NATO, and Ukraine's hypothetical potential membership of it was Putin's main excuse for starting the war.
So could this be the start of appeasement? Zelenski is clearly reading something between the lines here, he wouldn't have said anything like this before he met with Trump in September. I think the unpredictability of both Trump and Putin, who share many similar traits, is the key thing to consider here. I can see a compromise being reached that neither includes all of the territories Putin wants, or full NATO membership for the rest of Ukraine, that kicks the can down the road for a bit to stop immediate hostilities. But aid think we all know that the words and promises of both Trump and Putin are utterly meaningless
The European bigger players, France, UK, Germany, Poland haven’t reacted quickly enough. This should been our final warning that we are in a world where we may not have America to rely on.
The best case that happens in this war is the final cessation of the Donbas and crimea but Ukraine joins NATO in some form (they wouldn’t meet the criteria to join immediately)
Anything that kicks the can, as has been said, just emboldens Putin to go further.
The one positive is a large proportion of the Russian military has now been substantially limited by the war. Even on a war footing and with the help of China, Russian and Iran.
The idea that any attack on NATO wouldn’t end in the overnight destruction of the Russian military is for the birds.
The Ukrainians have done extraordinary. Pushed the Russians back to the Donbas, restricted their ability to operate in the Black Sea and inflicted heavy losses.
I’m more concerned about the longer term about that this means for Taiwan, the Suwalki Gap, aukus, the South China Sea and how the world will realign and it seems the axis of powers are shifting and not in our favour. Liberal democracies need to deliver and strengthen asap
Tom
TS Member
We can’t continue to add smaller and militarily insignificant countries to NATO. It is disproportionally propped up by the United States as it is. Adding more and more land to defend weakens the alliance considerably. Russia-bordering countries tend to add more risk to NATO and its members.
Ukraine is a fair military though compared to recent additions. North Macedonia and Albania's recent additions are probably even more useless right? As was Montenegro?
Nevermind Iceland which does not even have a military.. Ukraine is no UK or France but it has a fair weight to their military. The US target for 2% spending on defence is only really being met right now by Russian bordering states. Poland in particular are actually spending more than the US does on defence relative to their GDP/population. Ukraine like Poland has tons of incentives to spend as they actually have a threat next door. Most of the Baltics are similar (Estonia in particular). The ones who are not pulling their weight are the ones who are not under any threat.
Matt N
TS Member
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It would seem that Donald Trump has had a phone call with Vladimir Putin and put the wheels in motion to end the Ukraine war: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlkypydyn6o
Interestingly, this phone call was unilateral and did not involve any European leaders or even Ukraine themselves.
From what I ascertain, this very much sounds like Trump trying to appease Russia and bend to their demands. Key points include that Russia will likely be allowed to keep hold of the territory it has already annexed, and that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO in the foreseeable future if Putin promises not to attack again. It has also been suggested that the US could pledge air defences of some form.
Interestingly, this phone call was unilateral and did not involve any European leaders or even Ukraine themselves.
From what I ascertain, this very much sounds like Trump trying to appease Russia and bend to their demands. Key points include that Russia will likely be allowed to keep hold of the territory it has already annexed, and that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO in the foreseeable future if Putin promises not to attack again. It has also been suggested that the US could pledge air defences of some form.
Matt N
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Shambhala (PortAventura Park)
Interestingly, some people think that Trump could be employing something called "madman theory", wherein you purposely come out with outlandish things in order to more easily get your opponents to the negotiating table and get what you actually want. Richard Nixon allegedly used it during the Cold War, saying that he was very much ready to go nuclear in order to try and get the Soviets to the negotiating table.
I'm starting to think there might be some legs to this theory. This Ukraine endgame envisaged by Trump, like that Gaza resort plan or that "51st state of Canada" that he was talking about the other day, could be a way of getting his opponents to the negotiating table more easily and greasing the wheels on negotiations to avoid an outlandish outcome. Admittedly, this sounds a bit less outlandish than his plan for Gaza, but it could still be the case that he's threatening to hang Ukraine out to dry in order to grease the wheels on peace talks.
I'm starting to think there might be some legs to this theory. This Ukraine endgame envisaged by Trump, like that Gaza resort plan or that "51st state of Canada" that he was talking about the other day, could be a way of getting his opponents to the negotiating table more easily and greasing the wheels on negotiations to avoid an outlandish outcome. Admittedly, this sounds a bit less outlandish than his plan for Gaza, but it could still be the case that he's threatening to hang Ukraine out to dry in order to grease the wheels on peace talks.
Matt.GC
TS Member
Trump has always done this. He did this before politics. He even wrote a book about it. He threatens and says absurd things to get attention and terrify people (and it works, many fall for it). He usually gets what he wants, and has won 2 elections this way. He's a shrewd and dishonest bounder. Comparing him to crooked Richard Nixon would be an insult to Nixon's legacy.
He won't care either way. All he wants is to not have to worry about Ukraine, no matter what the cost to anyone else.
I think we all saw this coming, one of his team even told us so last year. So believe me when I say, Ukraine will be hung out to dry and be expected to be happy about it whilst Trump and Putin do victory laps in front of their subjects.
There will be little negotiation. Putin will keep his illegal war territory proceeds, and in return he needs to promise to not go starting too many wars for another 4 years. Similar narcissists who think alike the pair of them.
The rest of us won't be able to complain because it'll simply be met with "well, you should have paid more into NATO then" rebuffs. The bully boys are in charge.
He won't care either way. All he wants is to not have to worry about Ukraine, no matter what the cost to anyone else.
I think we all saw this coming, one of his team even told us so last year. So believe me when I say, Ukraine will be hung out to dry and be expected to be happy about it whilst Trump and Putin do victory laps in front of their subjects.
There will be little negotiation. Putin will keep his illegal war territory proceeds, and in return he needs to promise to not go starting too many wars for another 4 years. Similar narcissists who think alike the pair of them.
The rest of us won't be able to complain because it'll simply be met with "well, you should have paid more into NATO then" rebuffs. The bully boys are in charge.
This is going to be very interesting how this plays out. France has called for an urgent security meeting of the EU this week to address the Ukraine war and the US breaking off from the bloc. Starmer has contradicted the US saying Ukraine will join NATO and note also has to try and keep the US and EU talking.
The speech JD Vance did yesterday in Munich where the US slammed the EU and singled out the UK amongst one or two others regarding their immigration and free speech was an absolute brilliant speech and long overdue someone had to stand up and say it as it is.
It seems the age of the US protecting Europe be coming to an end unless Europe gets it act together and sharpish. I think Europe has for too long relied on the military power and spending into NATO of the US.
The speech JD Vance did yesterday in Munich where the US slammed the EU and singled out the UK amongst one or two others regarding their immigration and free speech was an absolute brilliant speech and long overdue someone had to stand up and say it as it is.
It seems the age of the US protecting Europe be coming to an end unless Europe gets it act together and sharpish. I think Europe has for too long relied on the military power and spending into NATO of the US.
pluk
TS Member
Are you parody? It was unhinged nonsense.
Not a theory Matt, just a madman.
Hellbent megalomaniac white male superego silver spoon privilege gets to you in the end.
Just another rich "family money" bully doing what he does best.
Getting richer by standing on the heads of the poorer man.
Personally, I'm back to recording the news, and zipping the attention seeking turd at every opportunity.
Benzin
TS Member
Especially when said US administration has literally banned a news outlet over this Gulf of Mexico thing.
Free speech, but only if you agree with us. Especially if you're the new version of the Nazi party (the AfD).
Also, once again, freedom of speech does not mean freedom from consequences.
The US/Trump want 50% of the precious minerals from Ukraine as payment for ending the war. Very much a "I'll help you but only when it's extremely beneficial for me" situation. Having these talks without any European presence as well should be enough to show it's dodgy as hell.
James
TS Founding Member
The USA is calling the shots due to NATO and Europe standing by while Putin does what he likes. While initial support for Ukraine helped, it’s now a grinding war that everyone’s fed up with.
USA and Russia will come to a form of agreement with Ukraine begrudgingly accepting. Russia will keep their illegally annexed land with the agreement that it will not invade again. Give it 5+ years or until Trump is out, then Putin will go for another round.
NATO and European countries really need to stand up.
USA and Russia will come to a form of agreement with Ukraine begrudgingly accepting. Russia will keep their illegally annexed land with the agreement that it will not invade again. Give it 5+ years or until Trump is out, then Putin will go for another round.
NATO and European countries really need to stand up.
According to you perhaps but I thought it was a speech that needed to be made to give Europe the kick up the ass it needs. Given the urgency of the meeting being called for next week by EU leaders it may be that the message got through.
As I said - for too long Europe has relied on the US. Countries not contributing the minimum amount to NATO yet still enjoying military protection. His points about mass migration are another topic but given the rose of the far right across Europe, it would appear many share his views. And I’m not a supporter of the far right before anyone jumps in, but if governments ignore their population and allow stuff like this to happen with the rising mass discontent we are seeing across European cities then eventually you get another Hitler in power and that’s the last thing we want.
Unfortunately though European governments instead of listening to their citizens and doing something about it, they just shut people up for speaking out and fuel the unrest further.
Given the responses in the media in response to his speech, it would appear many across Europe are also in agreement with his speech. And likewise, as with yourself, others disagree.
As for Ukraine - I don’t agree with the way the US is dealing with the Ukraine situation though, whatever agreements are made, Ukraine must be part of the negotiations but I certainly hope EU countries now take military spending more seriously, especially here in the UK where instead of building our armed forces we continue to cut them.
Matt.GC
TS Member
No, @pluk is absolutely right. It was completely unhinged and crazed, typical of the Trump Vance project.
However, where I do agree is that it is time to realise that America is no longer the reliable partner it always used to be. Since the US has now actually democratically elected an insane fascist, the VP of that project turning up in Munich making such an absurd rant should give European leaders a glimpse into the potential future of the continent. And we know this contintent doesn't have the best history when it comes to fascism.
If the continent doesn't want populist lunatics with no realistic solutions like Trump, Vance, Malonie, Le Pen, Farage, and Weidel tearing up the place, then it needs to act.
I think there will be little more than a 4 year ceasefire coming. Trump will claim victory for "stopping the war". Putin will be very satisfied as it allows him a get out and some breathing space from the sticky spot he's got himself into, whilst being able to claim that he effectively won the war (he pretty much has). It gives what remains of Ukraine a repreive.
It leaves Ukraine, the EU, and the UK with some soul searching about how the defend themselves long term when Putin comes back stronger than ever once his buddy in America leaves office.
A shame for us then that these same populists have spent the last decade trying to isolate us as much as possible from our nearest neighbours.
As with Pluk o respect your disagreement with the Vance speech, but as “unhinged” as people may think it was, it seems to have got an immediate response from the EU with leaders now apparently in a bit of a panic.
This whole situation I have to say is somewhat reminiscent of the beginning of WW2. The US wasn’t interested. The western bloc tried to reason with Hitler, there was a brief ceasefire and hope of peace, but of course Hitler wanted more, and the rest we know is history. The US only got involved due to being attacked themselves at Pearl Harbour.
It feels again that we a reasoning with Putin in the hope there is lasting peace whereas as you correctly point out Matt, in a few years Putin, like Hitler will want more. Seeing the weakness of Europe and the reluctance of the US to get involved, who could blame him for invading another country without fear of conflict.
If the Vance speech unhinged the European continent into acting and waking up (and possibly preventing a future conflict) then perhaps it wasn’t so unhinged after all?
This whole situation I have to say is somewhat reminiscent of the beginning of WW2. The US wasn’t interested. The western bloc tried to reason with Hitler, there was a brief ceasefire and hope of peace, but of course Hitler wanted more, and the rest we know is history. The US only got involved due to being attacked themselves at Pearl Harbour.
It feels again that we a reasoning with Putin in the hope there is lasting peace whereas as you correctly point out Matt, in a few years Putin, like Hitler will want more. Seeing the weakness of Europe and the reluctance of the US to get involved, who could blame him for invading another country without fear of conflict.
If the Vance speech unhinged the European continent into acting and waking up (and possibly preventing a future conflict) then perhaps it wasn’t so unhinged after all?
Tom
TS Member
Just ask yourself one thing: how much of what Trump has said/promised has ever materialised?
Europe does need to wake up and pay up, this is just a theatrical way of steering that.