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The 2017 General Election

@matthewgcole - some interesting observations there, but I end up back with the same point I made in my first post in the thread - the problem with this particular election is that the two party system is dying.

Labour telling us that they can be an alternative to the Tories who were an alternative to Labour who were an alternative to the Tories can only work so many times.

The Labour Party is doing a fine job destroying itself, it doesn't need anyone else. It has abandoned vast parts of the electorate who traditionally voted Red. If you look at those stats that came out today, there's a real chance that the Tories could get a majority in Wales. RIDICULOUS.
 
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Rick said:
@matthewgcole - some interesting observations there, but I end up back with the same point I made in my first post in the thread - the problem with this particular election is that the two party system is dying.

Labour telling us that they can be an alternative to the Tories who were an alternative to Labour who were an alternative to the Tories can only work so many times.

The Labour Party is doing a fine job destroying itself, it doesn't need anyone else. It has abandoned vast parts of the electorate who traditionally voted Red. If you look at those stats that came out today, there's a real chance that the Tories could get a majority in Wales. RIDICULOUS.
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Oh I wholeheartedly agree. Whether it be our first past the post 2 party parliamentary system, the checks and balances of the US Executive system or the whole set up of the European union; the systems and institutions we've built around us just aren't fit for the modern world. The fact we're even having this cheap shot election further proves this.

Under the microscope of ever increasing scrutiny thanks to the Internet, 24 hour news and alike, the traditional political establishment has had to carefully manage its public image more than ever before. This has led to sharp suited career politicians being manufactured by their parties as presentable election winning machines and adopting carefully PR managed "safe" policies to match. Thus the detachment from the electorate grows and major issues receive over hyped sticking plasters rather than bold and daring long term resolutions.

The financial crisis was the trigger that let the genie out of the bottle and suddenly, the voiceless want to be heard but can't find a way to do this against systems that have let them down in the past.

From those thrown on the scrapheap in the slums of detroit, to the young person who sees a system rigged against them, to those in the shuttered colliery towns in the north of England and Wales - I'm glad that their voices are now sounding out loud and clear.

But I fear that so many have been told things they want to hear by populist movements that are incompetent at best, deceitful and sinister at worst. Theres very little established and more moderate and/or realistic movements can do to combat that and still be in a position to be electorily successful in electoral systems designed to determine decisive outcomes rather than proportional ones.
 
matthewgcole said:
What happens when people find out they've got rid of the suits that misled them for clowns that have sold them a fantasy?
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If you want to know the answer to that question, just keep an eye on America, they're about six months ahead of the rest of us.

That Pie chap reminds me of Jeremy Clarkson, yap yaping on and getting angry because it's the in thing to do, wonder how long it'll be until he starts punching people because people get bored of his grandstanding?

I tend to mentally switch off when people start swearing in order to try and get their voice heard, I was always taught that if you have to resort to swearing to get a point of viee across, you've already lost the argument, I'm not anti-swearing by any means, but there's a time and place for it.
 
Rick said:
This reminds me of another part of the NHS debate - when people talk about privatisation they are referring to two different things.
  1. The literal privatisation of our health system like the one in the USA
  2. The privatisation of aspects of the health service in its current form
I am opposed to 1, but broadly supportive of 2. The name the National Health Service is massively misleading. There's very little national about it, each Trust is operated as a cottage industries under the same name, directly employing everyone from painters, plumbers, car park staff etc etc. There is very little common approach between Trusts meaning vast wastage and huge duplication in both equipment, IT systems etc.

If a private entity can operate a non-clinical (or in some cases clinical) function of the Health Service cheaper than the NHS can do it itself, I think that's acceptable because it provides better value for the taxpayer and an opportunity for the health service to focus on providing health services.
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In general the private companies cannot provide the same care the NHS trust can for less money. Circle tried in Huntingdon and gave up after two years.

Purdah is a legal grey area but let's just say I have some experience of the inside workings of the health system. The current work done by the private sector for the NHS is very selective, they take the case load that has the hugest tariff with the lowest clinical risk, they refuse to take patients with comorbidities as this kills their profit.

The problem with this in the current setting is this leaves the trusts with only the work mix that pays less than the cost to provide the care whilst the cherry picking private sector pull the profit base.

You could argue for a system based on the health service acting as national insurer and the private sector providing the care but they won't do it at current tarrif so costs will go up, there is a reason the NHS is one of the most cash efficient systems in the world.

There is room for improvement for sure but a system based on private providers has to offer a costing model that pays the shareholders of the company so you are going to see increased cost or decreased quality.

I favour the current system as it protects the most vulnerable and pound for pound is more efficient.
 
IanSR said:
If you want to know the answer to that question, just keep an eye on America, they're about six months ahead of the rest of us.

That Pie chap reminds me of Jeremy Clarkson, yap yaping on and getting angry because it's the in thing to do, wonder how long it'll be until he starts punching people because people get bored of his grandstanding?

I tend to mentally switch off when people start swearing in order to try and get their voice heard, I was always taught that if you have to resort to swearing to get a point of viee across, you've already lost the argument, I'm not anti-swearing by any means, but there's a time and place for it.
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Jonathan Pie is a character, the guy is a comedian (real name Tom Walker.) He even does a stand up act as that character.

http://www.konbini.com/us/entertainment/interview-jonathan-pie-youtube/
 
Yes I know, he's mixing standup and satirical news, he should stick to standup rather than pretend to be a news reporter making off the cuff comments that are more scripted than Top Gear, it's just not my kind of entertainment, I'm sure I'd find his standup routine as funny as the next person but I just don't find that "Pie" routine particularly entertaining.
 
Oh a good old fashioned heated topic almost like the good old days of TS.

As the only person on these treads that predicted a Tory majority last time (look it up in the history) and leaving the politics aside I actually thing Mrs May might have made a huge mistake here.
She has looked at the polls and quite rightly thinks she can get a big majority like Thatcher did but I'm afraid she has forgotten certain things.
First she is no Thatcher, here WAS a lady that at a world stage gathered a huge amount of respect and was a strong leader.
Then look at the polls, what do these actually tell us? Generally thay are slightly hard on the Tories as nobody likes to admit they are one so she should do even better than the polls predict but I actually think this could be wrong with our political system.
The seats that Labour currently occupy are generally safe seats that the constituents will never vote Tory, maybe UKIP before but now we are leaving the EU they will revert to type and vote Labour or not at all.
The areas where the Tories are miles ahead in the polls are generally already occupied by Tory MP's, this with the political opportunism of the Lib Dems trying to do an SNP and steal the remain vote and the safe Labour seats above, it's hard to see where this landslide is going to come from.
But her biggest mistakes by far have been calling this election before making the boundary changes that would have evened up the Labour bios in them and misjudging the mood of the people that really are polled out right now, nobody I speak with can be bothered with it.

So sorry about the rambling but where does this leave us? My prediction? After all of this huge waste of time and money?

A result almost identical to what we have now, a slight Tory majority and a PM and leader of the opposition in big trouble.
 
Another one about our current private health system.
What happens when thing go wrong with a private hospital patient in a big way???
They send them off to the good old NHS A&E department of course!
As I work for a lot of well off old biddies (The Catholic Mafia of the Ribble Valley, as I often call them) I have heard so many tales of this happening.
At a large number of smaller private hospitals in the grim north, they do not have the facilities for "major complications".
 
@BigT I think you're definitely on the right path with this one. I too predicted (before I was a member on here) that 2015 would end up with either a small tory majority or the biggest party at the very least.

This is because of the region I live in, the southwest. For the rest of the country the Lib Dems are mostly the obscure "other party" that sometimes cause the odd upset to the traditional tory vs labour 2 way fight. But in the south West, where labour are virtually non existent outside of Bristol, Exeter and Weymouth, the lib Dems are the anti tories. Even the distant 3rd place labour candidates have been known to knock on doors down here and encourage people to vote lib Dem. The polls, which are gathered on a much more national basis, failed to take into account the battles that are fought in this region. It was obvious that a party in national coalition with the main opposition party locally where going to be wiped out here and effectively gift almost all their seats to the tories, thus delivering them their small majority.

I think this same effect will be underestimated by both the polls and Mrs May this year. Whilst she's going toe to toe with Labour, a battle which she doesn't even need to bother fighting very hard in my opinion, she'll take her eye off the lib Dems. Where she makes gains against labour in swing seats, she'll also take for granted seats she'll loose around these parts to the lib Dems. I think she's in serious trouble in the tory/lib Dem marginals.

In the tory/ labour marginals you also have the lib Dems aggressively targeting remain voters, many of which have been marginalised by her government. She could be surprised by the small amount of anti hard Brexit protest voting that will go on, splitting the tory vote with the lib Dems slightly and saving labour the seat.

These points, on top of the ones you've already raised, particularly the underestimated voter apathy, will likely deliver another surprise for the pollsters and her party.

My prediction is an increased tory majority but no landslide at as is being predicted at best, although a similar result to 2015 is a possibility. This will be gained mainly at the expense of labour and I can see the Lib Dems gaining around 10 - 15 extra seats at the expense of the tories, meaning the tories would need to gain that same amount off of labour just to stand still. The SNP will remain mostly unchanged, perhaps seeing the odd seat swing back to labour now that they are standing on a more left wing agenda than last time. I can see plaid being a small beneficiary against a weak labour party in Wales, but if anyone makes any significant gains in Wales it will be the tories. Again though, I think May underestimates the loyalty to labour in the south Wales valleys.
 
Interesting read @matthewgcole

Do you think the Brexit vote will harm the Lib Dems? Your split was pretty much the same as the national average wasn't it?

I do think Labour will get a kicking in the welsh valleys. The beginning of a shift was there in the assembly elections - I'm not convinced they have done anything to reverse that. I wonder if the significant UKIP vote will shift to the Tories.
 
Rick said:
Interesting read @matthewgcole

Do you think the Brexit vote will harm the Lib Dems? Your split was pretty much the same as the national average wasn't it?

I do think Labour will get a kicking in the welsh valleys. The beginning of a shift was there in the assembly elections - I'm not convinced they have done anything to reverse that. I wonder if the significant UKIP vote will shift to the Tories.
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You're right, south West was pretty much exactly the national average in regards to the referendum result. But being a relatively wealthy and elderly region with low levels of immigration, it seemed like it was for different reasons than, for example, the north east. I don't think Brexit is as heated a topic here as it is elsewhere in the country (despite Jacob Reece-Mogg and Liam Fox both having constituencies here).

This region has been the most fertile part of the country for the Liberals for as long as I can remember and I can definitely see a small recovery happening. I would be very surprised if the current labour party could achieve anywhere near the vote share they did here in 2015 and the left vote will once again start to galvanise behind the Lib Dems. Since the collapse of the lib Dems in the region was very much a "punishment" dealt by left wing electorates for their association with the main opponents, Tim Farrons declaration that they'll do no coalition deals with either party will go down very well here.

Being half Welsh myself, and having family that originated from the valleys, politics in Wales is very complicated at the moment. A split is occurring as south East Wales, particularly around Cardiff, becomes more prosperous. It's becoming almost an overspill for Bristol as people seek cheaper housing and rumours are rife that the Severn bridge tolls could be halved or scrapped altogether soon. I think you're right that Labour will probably take a bit of a stuffing here.

But in the valleys in the West, time has almost stood still for the last 25 years. These communities are probably the most forgotten deprived communities in the entire country. Although labour are having a hard time here, and any pro EU stance will not go down well here, the ghosts of Thatcher stalk every street. Even if they do seem to be warming to Mrs May, I think they'll revert to type at the ballot box.

The waters in Wales are muddied further by labour being in government in the assembly as well.....
 
If I didn't know better I'd say Labour are trying hard not to win, if they really wanted to win they'd make the election about the NHS and local Government (and services) much more than they are, instead of the EU, why take on something that most people expect to become a complete disaster (Brexit) when you can sit back, watch the brown stuff hit the wall, and swoop in in four/five years and virtually be guaranteed a win.

Then your leader goes and suffers from Trump's foot in mouth syndrome and says he won't do a TV debate without Theresa, I mean seriously wtf are you thinking Jeremy? Or is this not some part of a bigger long term plan? Perfect time for the Corbyn haters to get rid of him after another election loss and bring back old Tony...

Or maybe I've just been watching too much Jessie Ventura?
 
Unfortunately this election will very much be fought on Brexit, whether Labour want it to be or not. I think you may be thinking too deeply into Labour's strategy although it certainly could work out like that, whether that's their plan or not. You're right to a point though, there's definitely some in Labour who want to lose, but it's the Blairites, the 'sensible moderates'. A glance at their twitter accounts compared to Corbyn and his allies shows the massive difference. They simply still can't accept he is leader and would rather lose than have Labour go back to its roots. I think a massive part of Labour's problems is he has been far too soft on these slugs and they'd be doing a much better job if he purged them 18 months ago and got his party in order, unlike the Tories who's media friends will cover up and disunity, Labour don't have that privilege so every division is amplified, and having slugs in the party deliberately make things out to be worse than they are does not help.

A Corbyn Brexit and a May Brexit are two very different things. He's right to accept the referendum result, it's much better to go along with it than do what the Lib Dems are doing.
 
matthewgcole said:
Oh I wholeheartedly agree. Whether it be our first past the post 2 party parliamentary system, the checks and balances of the US Executive system or the whole set up of the European union; the systems and institutions we've built around us just aren't fit for the modern world. The fact we're even having this cheap shot election further proves this.
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This is important, studying geography and the globalization of the world, politics is stuck far behind in terms of development. For it to advance in a sense it should try and become more global, allowing for greater co-operation between countries, perhaps allowing for easier resolutions for things like climate change and wars. Listening to this TED talk shows a lot how the outdated system is helping the rise of nationalism. Its quite interesting. https://www.ted.com/talks/yuval_noah_harari_nationalism_vs_globalism_the_new_political_divide
 
We''re thousands of years away from a one world global government type system, gotta get rid of religion before you could ever consider global cooperation.
 
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