2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[Tom]

Can only tighten between now and polling day for me, but First Past the Post can always pull of a wild result. As usual, we could end up with anything.

With regards to Labour being no different, I disagree with that and see it as a cop-out statement. There is not strategic advantage in revealing major policies at the moment. Indeed, it can only be damaging and enables attack narratives from the Tories and Reform - who are largely leaving Labour alone at the moment. Also, I am sure Labour rules mean a manifesto can't be produced until after an election campaign has started anyway.

I hope they are keeping House of Lords reform/abolition seriously quiet, and go for it in full and in a real, quick, and meaningful way.

 

[Dave]

Can only tighten between now and polling day for me, but First Past the Post can always pull of a wild result. As usual, we could end up with anything.

With regards to Labour being no different, I disagree with that and see it as a cop-out statement. There is not strategic advantage in revealing major policies at the moment. Indeed, it can only be damaging and enables attack narratives from the Tories and Reform - who are largely leaving Labour alone at the moment. Also, I am sure Labour rules mean a manifesto can't be produced until after an election campaign has started anyway.

I hope they are keeping House of Lords reform/abolition seriously quiet, and go for it in full and in a real, quick, and meaningful way.

Exactly this, for two good reasons.

1) You don’t reveal your hand until you have to.

2) The government only gave the civil service permission to give the opposition parties details of the countries finances in January. So as it stands they have only had just under 2 months to digest that information and plug it into their manifesto plans.

This obsession with the opposition party stating fully costed policies before the campaign is a new one, mostly because the majority of the news outlets are Tory shills so have tried to push the narrative that Labour have no plan.

 

[BigT]

You don’t have to reveal your hand but can give a push to the direction of travel.
Labour almost had a good policy with the creation of a national wealth fund to run a green energy infrastructure, it didn’t go far enough but was a good direction of travel, what happened? Scaled back so now not worth even doing.
The direction of travel is the same with both the main parties, both too scared to really do something new for offending the core voters.
Right now we have a rightfully unpopular government and an opposition that’s too scared to announce any real policies in fear it might loose its lead in the polls, this is exactly what Kinnocks strategy was, look what happened.
Tony Blair was selling a dream, things could get better, it’s hard to see things getting better now, not with the rabble we currently have sitting on the green bench’s.

 

[Matt N]

Tony Blair was selling a dream, things could get better, it’s hard to see things getting better now, not with the rabble we currently have sitting on the green bench’s.

While I agree that Starmer could perhaps be a tad bolder (although I admit that holding his cards relatively close to his chest until election time is probably a wise move given his current position), there is one key difference between Starmer’s predicament in 2024 and Blair’s predicament in 1997, and that’s the state of the economy.

From what I gather, John Major, despite the Black Wednesday crisis of 1992, actually handed Tony Blair a pretty thriving economy to work with in 1997. The 90s were generally a time of great optimism, things were working better, and the UK was in an overall better place, particularly from a financial standpoint. As such, Blair had quite a bit of wiggle room for some more ambitious policies.

In 2024, however, things are quite different. The general outlook and public mood are much gloomier, and the public finances are in a far worse state due to a combination of extrinsic factors (COVID, Ukraine, Brexit), many years of sluggish economic growth, and unsuccessful government policy (Liz Truss’ mini-budget). The general mood over the last year or so has been one of reining in any spending ambition and being careful with state spending, so any notion of excessive spending would probably not be received too well.

Labour in particular have a widely held reputation for being poor with the country’s finances, so any notion of excessive spending from Starmer would likely be used as a Tory attack line (“Labour can’t be trusted with your money!”). You only have to look at the green policy Starmer recently u-turned on; it was a good policy, but it was being used quite effectively as a Tory attack line to imply that Labour can’t be trusted with Britain’s finances. The reason why Labour u-turned on it is because polls showed that the Tory attack line regarding that policy was cutting through with the public.

 

[Dave]

You don’t have to reveal your hand but can give a push to the direction of travel.
Labour almost had a good policy with the creation of a national wealth fund to run a green energy infrastructure, it didn’t go far enough but was a good direction of travel, what happened? Scaled back so now not worth even doing.
The direction of travel is the same with both the main parties, both too scared to really do something new for offending the core voters.
Right now we have a rightfully unpopular government and an opposition that’s too scared to announce any real policies in fear it might loose its lead in the polls, this is exactly what Kinnocks strategy was, look what happened.
Tony Blair was selling a dream, things could get better, it’s hard to see things getting better now, not with the rabble we currently have sitting on the green bench’s.

They haven’t scaled back the intent of the green energy programme they just said they wouldn’t commit to the budget that had been specified. Primarily because they announced that before the lettuce crashed the economy. The mistake they made was announcing a number in the first place considering they did it In 2021.

It’s the right wing media who have spun the idea of a u-turn.

 

[Benzin]

It's a sad thought that the Tories could have a leg to stand on claiming that Labour are irresponsible with money given the last few years.

But that's all it is. Moan and shout like a toddler not being allowed a sweet.

 

[Matt.GC]

While I agree that Starmer could perhaps be a tad bolder (although I admit that holding his cards relatively close to his chest until election time is probably a wise move given his current position), there is one key difference between Starmer’s predicament in 2024 and Blair’s predicament in 1997, and that’s the state of the economy.

From what I gather, John Major, despite the Black Wednesday crisis of 1992, actually handed Tony Blair a pretty thriving economy to work with in 1997. The 90s were generally a time of great optimism, things were working better, and the UK was in an overall better place, particularly from a financial standpoint. As such, Blair had quite a bit of wiggle room for some more ambitious policies.

In 2024, however, things are quite different. The general outlook and public mood are much gloomier, and the public finances are in a far worse state due to a combination of extrinsic factors (COVID, Ukraine, Brexit), many years of sluggish economic growth, and unsuccessful government policy (Liz Truss’ mini-budget). The general mood over the last year or so has been one of reining in any spending ambition and being careful with state spending, so any notion of excessive spending would probably not be received too well.

Labour in particular have a widely held reputation for being poor with the country’s finances, so any notion of excessive spending from Starmer would likely be used as a Tory attack line (“Labour can’t be trusted with your money!”). You only have to look at the green policy Starmer recently u-turned on; it was a good policy, but it was being used quite effectively as a Tory attack line to imply that Labour can’t be trusted with Britain’s finances. The reason why Labour u-turned on it is because polls showed that the Tory attack line regarding that policy was cutting through with the public.

Another good analysis of the situation here Matt, and you're mostly bang on with what you say here. But I have to disagree that the Tory attacks were landing blows on Labour in regard to the green energy policy. Polling suggests that the Tories are loosing the economic credibility argument, and that public moods towards public spending, investment, and taxation are changing.

Tax & Spending polls & surveys | YouGov

Explore the latest YouGov polling, survey results and articles about Tax & Spending.

yougov.co.uk

 

[Benzin]

Also lol at 30p Lee being suspended for racism (again).

Maybe Sadiq should do a couple of defamation charges against him for good measure.

No doubt he'll end up at Reform by the election. Though at the rate we'll likely need more by-elections Labour might already be in power.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

The only party different is Reform and they can be ignored anyway, they are a protest vote for polls and won’t win a single seat.

We thought that about the BNP and UKIP. Arguably no parties have done more, in the past 25 years, to shape and direct British political discourse than the "fringe" parties on the right.

Whilst Reform UK might not play well in the generals, I'm sure it'll perform better than we think at the council level. UKIP had an appalling track record with GEs, but notably performed incredibly well during MEP elections.

I cannot stomach far right politics, or even really right wing politics full stop, but it would be foolish to write them off and not be wary.

 

[Tom]

UKIP served to influence but ultimately strengthen the Conservative Party by scaring it. The Brexit Party served to prop up the Tories. Now, Reform seek to either destroy and rebuild the Tories in their image. Ultimately there is a theme of recognising the two-party system and that influence, infiltration or even destroying and rebuilding from an established base.

One thing I give the populists/fascists is that they have more electoral intelligence than the liberal/progressive parties. The Green Party, and to lesser extent the Liberal Democrats', approach of standing against each other etc. often strengthens the Tories.

 

[Matt.GC]

The left vote has been split for years. Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon may as well have stood on Downing Street handing the Tories the keys. Lib Dems generally tend to hold back Tory seats and we saw what a Lib Dem collapse did to the 2015 result.

 

[Matt.GC]

Yougov have updated their General Election projections for the first time since January.

YouGov MRP – Labour now projected to win over 400 seats | YouGov

Our latest UK general election 2024 MRP projects a 154 seat majority for Labour

yougov.co.uk

Whilst other polls and projections have had some wildly optimistic projections of Labour winning as many as 480 seats, this is the first time Yougov has had Labour at over 400. This appears to run against the grain as national polls have seen a negligible dip in the labour lead over March. No sign of a conservative recovery however just about anywhere. The dial remains stubbornly depressed for them as it has done since the fall of Liz Truss.

I'm still leaning towards polling being too optimistic in favour of Labour. I still think there's a lot that can change over the summer, especially since we now expect Sunak to go late so he can paint a picture of some sort of economic recovery.

That said, I still think it's all but impossible for any sort of Tory win. It's likely just a matter of how many more seats Labour will gain over them. I still maintain that this election will be very much in the hands of the smaller parties. Will the SNP, Greens, Plaid and the Lid Dems hold back Labour in some places? What will turnout be like? There's still little 1997 style positivity towards Labour out there, even if the seat projections produce similar numbers to then.

 

[GaryH]

I’m not sure what will happen in the next election. There is still a big fear of Labour and a general dislike of Starmer. No one (myself included) want the Tories back in. So where does this leave things?

Will votes go to Lib Dem’s or Reform? I wonder if votes will be so split across all political parties we will have a hung parliament and a mixture of MPs running the country.

Perhaps that a good thing and have a more balanced view on how to approach things.

 

[Matt.GC]

I’m not sure what will happen in the next election. There is still a big fear of Labour and a general dislike of Starmer. No one (myself included) want the Tories back in. So where does this leave things?

Will votes go to Lib Dem’s or Reform? I wonder if votes will be so split across all political parties we will have a hung parliament and a mixture of MPs running the country.

As we get closer, I am swayed towards a Labour Majority now, owing to the fact that the latest polls have actually worsened for the Tories rather than seeing the gap closing which I still fully expect to happen.

I think the closest to certainty we can get is that unless aliens come down and adduct a load of people, the Tories will get hammered. That's what would deliver a Labour majority above anything else.

But your theory is sound and I agree with it. I think the polls overstate the labour lead. The gap will shrink through the summer, there's a huge amount of "don't knows" who I actually suspect many will end up voting Tory, they just don't want to right now but may end up holding their noses at the last minute and doing so anyway.

The apathy towards Labour makes things harder to predict. I can see a low turnout, high amounts of spoilt ballets, and last minute crosses going in to any box. I don't think Reform will get a seat, but Greens have a spring in their step in Bristol central, Isle of White west and in retaining Brighton Pavillion. There's a couple of extra seats in Wales that Plaid are quite chipper about. Although the Lib Dems are still not polling too great at a national level, that can be converted to seats quite easily and they're renowned for being excellent local campaigners. Although the SNP will take a battering, I still don't think it's as bad as being predicted.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

Would be nice if the parties could come up with better policies than "vote for us because we're not..."

 

[Benzin]

Would be nice if the parties could come up with better policies than "vote for us because we're not..."

Isn't it some strange old law that they can't do that until they release manifestos? Which is why half of the stuff is being "looked into" and other such wording.

British politics is so outdated.

 

[Matt N]

I think it’s hard to say at the moment.

Labour are leading by a long way in the polls, but I think a lot of that is anti-Tory sentiment rather than pro-Labour sentiment. I wouldn’t say that Starmer is a figure who’s garnered a huge amount of fans in his own right, or that there’s much of a positive incentive to vote Labour for many at the moment. Unlike with Blair, I don’t think the prospect of a Starmer government is inspiring much hype or excitement among the public. I’d say it’s more inspiring relief that we might finally be free of the incumbent Tory government, who are quite possibly the least popular government I’ve known in my lifetime.

I have never known quite so much public discontent for the incumbent government. Boris had his fans, for sure, but he grew a lot more unpopular towards the end, and I don’t think he would necessarily have repeated his 2019 win if he’d stayed. Liz Truss was deeply unpopular (some polls gave her a lower public approval rating than Prince Andrew…), and I don’t think Sunak is an awful lot more popular than Truss despite his best efforts. To be fair, I don’t think Sunak himself incites too much hatred, but I think a wide cross-section of the country is now just utterly fed up with the Conservative Party and there’s not much that Sunak can do to change that.

With this in mind, I’m unsure how strongly Labour will actually perform given that much of the public sentiment is anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour.

I also think that Labour could be at risk from smaller parties. Reform UK are growing in popularity and beginning to present an increasingly compelling home for further-right Tory supporters, while on the left, the likes of George Galloway and Jeremy Corbyn are threatening to cause trouble for Labour, as well as the Lib Dems and the Greens. Will people vote for other left-wing parties with more overtly left-wing agendas, and will these parties, alongside the movements by the likes of Galloway and Corbyn, split the left-wing vote and lead to the Tories doing better than expected?

Like others, I do feel that Labour’s lead will be smaller than the polls suggest. I also agree with @Matt.GC in thinking that it’s those “don’t knows” who will decide the election. If Starmer presents a compelling argument closer to election time, these voters could be enticed to vote Labour and Starmer could do very well indeed. But if he doesn’t, these voters may get to the ballot box, think “better the devil you know” and vote Tory, which could lead to Starmer doing worse than expected and possibly even help the Tories to defy the odds and win another term.

 

[tayspru]

Starmer and Labour will be taking care not to make any big statements prior to manifestos. All it serves to do this early on is give the Tories attack lines

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Isn't it some strange old law that they can't do that until they release manifestos? Which is why half of the stuff is being "looked into" and other such wording.

British politics is so outdated.

Nope, it's tradition and tactical politics. If Labour announce an idea, which starts to build traction with the people, there's nothing stopping the government from implementing it themselves and claiming it as a win.

In reality, if you think about it, it's quite selfish. Manifestos, and great new opposition ideas, don't get released until closer to the election incase someone actually does something about them and they're popular. Party before people, remember?

 

[Matt.GC]

If you take the last policy they nicked from Labour though, a watered down version of non-dom status abolition, it was used to give out sweeties to bribe voters with tax decreases. The public finances are in a terrible state and many public services and local councils are crumbling. Yet most of that money has now been spent. Proper scorched earth stuff. It's now basically an option of who do you prefer does the cutting at the next election. Expect both parties to be grilled relentlessly on this.