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UK Politics General Discussion

What will be the result of the UK’s General Election?

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 3 2.5%

  • Conversative Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 2 1.7%

  • Labour Majority

    Votes: 87 72.5%

  • Labour Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 28 23.3%

  • Other Result (Please specify in your post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    120
  • Poll closed .
Just a general reminder and PSA that today is the deadline to register to vote for the general election.

If you're going to be 18 on, or before, July 4th 2024 (and have leave to remain in the UK), you're entitled to vote in this year's general election.

Registration closes at 23:59:59 tonight.

If you're not sure if you're registered, or not, register anyway!

www.gov.uk

Register to vote

Register to vote to take part in elections in the UK. Includes how to get on the electoral register and how to update your address on the register.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
Alsty said:
Also a reminder you need photo ID to vote. If you don't have any valid photo ID you can apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate. You have until the 25th June to do this.

www.gov.uk

Apply for photo ID to vote (called a ‘Voter Authority Certificate’)

Apply for photo ID to vote (Voter Authority Certificate) in some elections and referendums in Great Britain if you do not have an accepted form of ID.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
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That's me that is!
Bloody typical.
But like an awful lot of old gits, I'm going postal...


Not that one, promise.
 
Strange to see Kier Starmer in Swindon Dorcan Morrisons today. I sat in that staff canteen in 2019 during the adjournment of a disciplinary meeting held against me. 😂. Found not to be as naughty as I was accused of in the end. One of the managers in the background used to work for me years ago. Poor sod still working for those bastards.

Hilarious to see a picture of a member of staff frantically facing up in the background as Starmer and Reeve's walk up an aisle for a photoshoot. Go in there next week and the shop will be a bin with piles of cardboard on the floor. Something comforting to see that things in that company never change.
 
So the latest poll from Savanta has Labour on 516 seats, the Tories in second on 53, and the Lib Dems in third on 50. This is admittedly incredibly unlikely, but one of the results from the poll is apparently this - Rishi Sunak would lose his seat...
 
Jonathan said:
So the latest poll from Savanta has Labour on 516 seats, the Tories in second on 53, and the Lib Dems in third on 50. This is admittedly incredibly unlikely, but one of the results from the poll is apparently this - Rishi Sunak would lose his seat...
Click to expand...
Hilarious poll, but knowing Sunak’s constituency (it’s next door to mine) and comparing to the other polls that’ve come out this week, a result like that is hugely unlikely. Don’t get me wrong mind, I’m all for a Portillo moment of epic proportions - just I think that’s dream land sadly! The fact it’s even being suggested shows just how insane and bonkers this self-made mess is for the Tories though.

I know we’ve mentioned it before, but looking at polling averages and the general trend is key. We can then get a better idea of the trajectory over the course of the campaign, and to put it mildly it’s not great for the Tories. If I put my sensible head on based on things at the moment, my assumption is that the Tories will hit three figures…just. On average the polls are predicting about 110 seats for them. That said, with so many seats a tossup and well within the margin of error, they could end up on 60-80. The Reform vote is really difficult to predict too.

On the polls subject, some of the data and graphics on polling websites is great, but it often just gives a polling average or is only based on the results from a specific pollster. If you want to see at a glance how the polling is doing across a number of the “big” pollsters at a glance, there’s this great website that someone’s put together that lets you look down to constituency level. It’s really handy to spot any outliers within the data (like Richmond and Northallerton).

As election day approaches, it seems the campaign to squeeze undecideds and Reform voters to switch back to them with talk of tax rises and supermajorities is falling on deaf ears. People are just not listening, and with nothing but downward percentages for the Tories, I can’t see how that’s gonna change.

There was a Lord Ashcroft poll released tonight which further demonstrates the Tories are leaking voters over to Reform at an alarming rate, which again is marrying up with previous polls in the past week or so:


From: https://x.com/samfr/status/1803543591622680949?s=61


I know it’s the Mail, but I’d recommend reading that Ashcroft article linked in the tweet, as he talks about the focus groups he’s held where party policies have been read to voters both with and without the political party mentioned, with another group where they’ve stated who’s policy it is. Some really surprising results, and shows just how toxic the Conservative brand is at the moment.

Back to polls, and Labour’s vote is relatively stable, it’s the Tories leaking their share still at a fairly large amount. As we head into the final weeks of campaigning and people firm up their votes, I’m expecting polls to move a little bit. it wouldn’t surprise me to see Labour dropping a few points as people go for Greens or Lib Dems, as people feel more comfortable voting with their heart and not just their head. At the same time, it wouldn’t surprise me to see more of the same on the right side of the vote. We also could see an increased number of Tories voting for Reform, or on the opposite more centrist Tories going for the Lib Dems. Both spell trouble for the Conservatives, especially with current polls showing many of their seats on an absolute knife edge in the first place.
 
Craig said:
Hilarious poll, but knowing Sunak’s constituency (it’s next door to mine) and comparing to the other polls that’ve come out this week, a result like that is hugely unlikely. Don’t get me wrong mind, I’m all for a Portillo moment of epic proportions - just I think that’s dream land sadly! The fact it’s even being suggested shows just how insane and bonkers this self-made mess is for the Tories though.

I know we’ve mentioned it before, but looking at polling averages and the general trend is key. We can then get a better idea of the trajectory over the course of the campaign, and to put it mildly it’s not great for the Tories. If I put my sensible head on based on things at the moment, Currently, my assumption is that the Tories will hit three figures…just. On average the polls are predicting about 110 seats for them. That said, with so many seats a tossup and well within the margin of error, they could end up on 60-80. The Reform vote is really difficult to predict too.

On the polls subject, some of the data and graphics on polling websites is great, but it often just gives a polling average or is only based on the results from a specific pollster. If you want to see at a glance how the polling is doing across a number of the “big” pollsters at a glance, there’s this great website that someone’s put together that lets you look down to constituency level. It’s really handy to spot any outliers within the data (like Richmond and Northallerton).

As election day approaches, it seems the campaign to squeeze undecideds and Reform voters to switch back to them with talk of tax rises and supermajorities is falling on deaf ears. People are just not listening, and with nothing but downward percentages for the Tories, I can’t see how that’s gonna change.

There was a Lord Ashcroft poll released tonight which further demonstrates the Tories are leaking voters over to Reform at an alarming rate, which again is marrying up with previous polls in the past week or so:


From: https://x.com/samfr/status/1803543591622680949?s=61


I know it’s the Mail, but I’d recommend reading that Ashcroft article linked in the tweet, as he talks about the focus groups he’s held where party policies have been read to voters both with and without the political party mentioned, with another group where they’ve stated who’s policy it is. Some really surprising results, and shows just how toxic the Conservative brand is at the moment.

Back to polls, and Labour’s vote is relatively stable, it’s the Tories leaking their share still at a fairly large amount. As we head into the final weeks of campaigning and people firm up their votes, I’m expecting polls to move a little bit. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Labour dropping a few points as people go for Greens or Lib Dems, as people feel more comfortable voting with their heart and not just their head. At the same time, It wouldn’t surprise me to see more doing the same on the right side of the vote. We also could see an increased number of Tories voting for Reform, or on the opposite more centrist Tories going for the Lib Dems. Both spell trouble for the Conservatives, especially with current polls showing many of their seats on an absolute knife edge in the first place.
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I broadly agree with this, and I think the More In Common prediction, whatever formula they are using, is probably closer to what the real result is looking like.

It must be remembered that MRP predictions are based on models. They put people into boxes to make assumptions, but are completely ignorant to local issues. That's why I think Corbyn and Galloway will keep their seats, Farage will win Clacton, Denyer will win Bristol Central, and Plaid will win Ynys Mon.

They're also delayed by a few days so don't take into account any recent developments. If a week is a long time in politics, 2 weeks must seem like a lifetime. It almost seems like we're at a stage where the Tories are so up against it, that they almost become martyrs, and that could tempt old school loyalists to make the trip to the polling station at the last minute.

That said, I can't see a Tory recovery to get anywhere near the 200 seat mark. It really is now a case of how big a Labour majority will be. I fully believe there will be a significant Tory recovery over the last 2 weeks of the campaign, and that we could see a very low turnout predominantly causing that. The focus is on Reform on the right, and that's clearly where Sunak has foolishly focused his attention. But let's not forget that smaller parties are campaigning, like Reform is, on the basis that the election is a forgone conclusion, so many voters may be swayed to vote with their heart rather than tactically. That's where the Greens, The SNP, Plaid, and even Sinn Fein can clean up. Reinforcing disgust at the Tories whilst labelling Labour in a similar category. The Lib Dems should by rights have a good night by just being the 'neither' alternative.

I must admit that I'm worried about Labour having a significant landslide with less than 40% of the national vote share. That doesn't seem very democratic to me. Surely there is now a strong case for a more proportional system? Labour would ignore these calls at their peril.
 
Far too many Tory voters deny their voting intentions in polls, always have, always will.
Polls are an indicator of what is likely... going to happen, not will happen, but because some people lie, they are not terribly accurate on occasion.
Now that nice Mr T suggested that there will not be a clear labour majority only a few weeks ago.
I think that forecast may be a little incorrect...
 
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rob666 said:
Far too many Tory voters deny their voting intentions in polls, always have, always will.
Polls are an indicator of what is likely... going to happen, not will happen, but because some people lie, they are not terribly accurate on occasion.
Now that nice Mr T suggested that there will not be a clear labour majority only a few weeks ago.
I think that forecast may be a little incorrect...
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I’ll admit it’s looking more likely as the Tories have run one of the worse campaigns in history.
I will agree with you about the polls being Tory shy though, they always have been and I’m not convinced the reform vote will hold up when it comes to putting the x in the box either, it never has before with other parties associated with that clown from the jungle.
 
Watching this QT leaders programme, it dawns on me that I have diligently sat through the first three quarters of the programme, paying a reasonable amount of attention (despite not being in Scotland, so one of the three leaders is of somewhat less relevance to me).

Without really thinking about it, as soon as Rishi turned up and started chatting about whatever dog whistle he's come up with this week, I've got up and started doing random chores around the flat - clearly it was a better use of time to get some laundry on, rather than wasting time paying much attention to someone who not only won't be prime minister in a month, but is unlikely to still be in the House of Commons.

Even if he wins his seat, he's surely going to be handing his notice in on the first day of the new parliament?
 
Squiggs said:
Even if he wins his seat, he's surely going to be handing his notice in on the first day of the new parliament?
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For all that it's worth, he has gone on the record to say that, regardless of whether his party wins the election, he will serve his full term as an MP.
www.theguardian.com

Rishi Sunak pledges to serve as MP for full term if Tory party loses election

Prime minister says he intends to continue in parliament for next five years regardless of overall result on 4 July
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This, of course, doesn't mean that he will actually engage with his constituents, turn up to parliament to vote, or anything else. He could do a Nadine Dorris. It's unlikely that he would face a recall petition.

He also hasn't kept a promise yet that I can think of.
 
GooseOnTheLoose said:
For all that it's worth, he has gone on the record to say that, regardless of whether his party wins the election, he will serve his full term as an MP.
www.theguardian.com

Rishi Sunak pledges to serve as MP for full term if Tory party loses election

Prime minister says he intends to continue in parliament for next five years regardless of overall result on 4 July
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

This, of course, doesn't mean that he will actually engage with his constituents, turn up to parliament to vote, or anything else. He could do a Nadine Dorris. It's unlikely that he would face a recall petition.

He also hasn't kept a promise yet that I can think of.
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If he keeps his seat, I have no doubt he'll be gone by Christmas. He has zero interest in being a backbencher in an opposition party in maximal wilderness mode.

I've seen speculation that he has a place at an expensive school in California sorted for his daughters from August. No idea if it's true but it passes the sniff test IMHO.
 
Squiggs said:
Watching this QT leaders programme, it dawns on me that I have diligently sat through the first three quarters of the programme, paying a reasonable amount of attention (despite not being in Scotland, so one of the three leaders is of somewhat less relevance to me).

Without really thinking about it, as soon as Rishi turned up and started chatting about whatever dog whistle he's come up with this week, I've got up and started doing random chores around the flat - clearly it was a better use of time to get some laundry on, rather than wasting time paying much attention to someone who not only won't be prime minister in a month, but is unlikely to still be in the House of Commons.

Even if he wins his seat, he's surely going to be handing his notice in on the first day of the new parliament?
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I’m the other way round really, I settle in with a nice drink when it’s Rishi’s turn to enjoy him squirming and getting heckled. It’s rather soothing after the past few years of government to see the public get a chance to give some back.
 
Has anyone got a sense of fatigue about this whole campaign?

Where in previous elections, even 2019, I felt like it was somewhat up the air how it'd go; this time I feel like the only question is the extent of the defeat. There's no policies left to announce and, leaving the futility of the debate aside, it doesn't feel like there's really any debating left to be done. Don't get me wrong, I'm stoked to see the back of the wretched lot we've had ruining things for so long, and I get the impression that's a widely held feeling at this point, but somehow that's not really converting in to enthusiasm for the election itself.

I get the distinct impression that all sides (perhaps excluding Farage) would prefer it if we just got on with it now, which is a sharp contrast to the final weeks of previous general election campaigns I've lived through. Maybe it's just perspective but enthusiasm on the whole just seems really low. By now in the campaign, you're normally seeing signs up all over the place for the various political parties but I've hardly seen any this time.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a frightening drop off in turnout. Add that disengagement/distrust in politics to the list of things Labour will somehow have to sort out...
 
I'm not bored about the election itself, it's shaping up to be a very historic night and I'm extremely excited about it. But I completely agree about the campaign and it's like no other I've ever known, we just need to get on with the vote now.

There doesn't seem like much point in the rest of the campaign. We're just 11 days from polls opening, the debates and most of the interviews are over, the boring manifestos have been launched and this is perfectly normal for this stage of the short campaign. However, the last 2 weeks are normally characterised by the streets and lanes being dressed with colourful signs and posters, defining speeches and pleas, policies being scrutinised and debated, kissing babies heads etc.

Worth pointing out that not a lot other than battle bus visits and Sunday morning interviews happen on weekends anyway, but we're in a strange situation this time round. The Tories are clearly on the way out and no one is listening to any political points they're making anymore, and haven't for some time. Even Sunak has admitted defeat and has joined the anti "Supermajority" campaign with what he's written in a newspaper tomorrow, whereas at least John Major was still standing on soap boxes fighting hard for his manifesto at this stage before his defeat. They seem like a party begging to be put out of their misery, with their own MP's openly complaining and even briefing against Sunak to journalists, whilst yet another sleaze scandal on betting unfolds.

Labour, knowing that there's very little positivity out there and that there's little point in risking mistakes by further kicking a party when it's already down and is openly conceding defeat, seem to have gone to ground. Only obligatory media appearances from shadow cabinet ministers in the last few days on telly.

Still plenty of interesting stuff to come. I expect whilst Starmer quietly continues to ice scate around with that Ming Vase, and Sunak tries his best to avoid discussing the betting scandal, smaller parties will be offering themselves up to fill the unnocpied air space. You can bet your bottom dollar Farage won't shut up over the next few days. There's plenty of polls and MRP predictions due the next few days that will probably show some pretty interesting movements, which I think will show a diminishing Labour lead developing as we get closer to polling day. There's still plenty of developments to unfold I feel with the betting scandal.

But there will likely be a low turnout. There's little positivity in the system or for the future direction of the country afterwards. I've found myself now being more interested in the drama of the election night itself, the first Labour budget, and the future fate of the Conservative party than I am about the rest of the campaign which now seems pretty pointless to me. I think most people just want the nightmare to end and the world to move on now.
 
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