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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

What is your predicted polling outcome for the 2024 UK general election

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 3 2.8%

  • Conversative Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Labour Majority

    Votes: 77 70.6%

  • Labour Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 27 24.8%

  • Other Result (Please specify in your post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    109
I must admit that I did chuckle at one of the Lib Dem campaign adverts I got on Facebook, which said that “the Lib Dems have always been on the right side of history”… I think the coalition and the resulting Lib Dem annihilation in 2015 would beg to differ!
 
Matt N said:
I must admit that I did chuckle at one of the Lib Dem campaign adverts I got on Facebook, which said that “the Lib Dems have always been on the right side of history”… I think the coalition and the resulting Lib Dem annihilation in 2015 would beg to differ!
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They didn't have much choice but to go with a coalition. They did the right thing at the time.

It was unfortunate it cost them a lot of votes next time around.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 
I’m not sure how you get the Lib Dem’s winning Tory seats increases labour’s majority?
Reduces the likelihood of a Tory victory yes but it doesn’t increase labours.
 
I've found an MRP aggregator on Twitter thanks to John Rentoul from the Independent, and it makes for rather interesting reading.
Data is taken from 12 different polling sites. Of all 631 seats in England, Scotland, and Wales (the 18 in Northern Ireland and the Speaker's seat of Chorley aren't included), how many seats do we think all 12 polling sites think the Tories will win? Well, the answer is 11. Yes, only 11. To compare and contrast, there are 21 seats where all 12 polling sites are in agreement the Lib Dems will win. As for Labour? Well, that figure stands at 335.
 
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shakey said:
They didn't have much choice but to go with a coalition. They did the right thing at the time.

It was unfortunate it cost them a lot of votes next time around.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
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Will be the Lib Dems' revenge a week tomorrow anyway, they will walk into literally dozens of seats at the expense of the Tories.
 
I still remain confident of my prediction 6 pages ago. Was tempted to revise it with Gamblegate rumbling on, but I think Sunak saved a few dozen seats last night.

As for PFI, that's old news - hardly a revelation. Not in the manifesto but I mentioned it 4 pages ago, Wes Streeting has been going on about it for a month, and Starmer has been talking about it for a couple of years. This is exactly why they'll win, it's been in front of our noses the whole time and no one has talked about it. Bad Tory strategy.

What else did anyone think they were going to do? To me, they couldn't have made it any clearer.
 
Jonathan said:
Well, they could've painted themselves purple and danced naked on top of a harpsichord singing about their plans.
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I don't think even doing that would be enough it seems. It's not true until it's posted on social media don't you know?

It's old news and I would have thought it was blindingly obvious. But clearly not until it's been posted on Musk's Hat.com first! What on earth did anyone think they meant with all this talk of "private sector investment" in public services? It's the very definition of PFI, just not named as so because of the bad press that comes with it.
 
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Yup, we have paid twice as much through pfi than through traditional methods of government purchase and construction...what is there not to love.
 
Benzin said:
Is it any different from the current government giving their mates the contracts under the guise of a "fair tender process"?
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Yes. Both are subject to the fair tender process, in the case of the current system government money goes directly to Not Dodgy Company R Us Ltd.

Under PFI, the government borrows money from commercial entities (at very high interest rates and great terms for the bank) to give to Not Dodgy Company R Us. The government, in effect, ends up spending twice as much as the contract is worth for the same result, but lines the pockets of more commercial entities along the way.

Both circumstances are awful, the first is slightly less awful.

The problem with fair tender, under the current government, is that it wasn't "fair" and contracts went to friends and cronies. There needs to be more oversight to whom the contacts are given, and any commercial interests members of the government may have in them.
 
GooseOnTheLoose said:
Yes. Both are subject to the fair tender process, in the case of the current system government money goes directly to Not Dodgy Company R Us Ltd.

Under PFI, the government borrows money from commercial entities (at very high interest rates and great terms for the bank) to give to Not Dodgy Company R Us. The government, in effect, ends up spending twice as much as the contract is worth for the same result, but lines the pockets of more commercial entities along the way.

Both circumstances are awful, the first is slightly less awful.

The problem with fair tender, under the current government, is that it wasn't "fair" and contracts went to friends and cronies. There needs to be more oversight to whom the contacts are given, and any commercial interests members of the government may have in them.
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Contracts have gone to friends and cronies for as long as I can remember whatever the colour of government.
Why do you think all of these businesspersons are suddenly supporting Labour? They don’t give a stuff about who could run the country better they just want to be in bed with the winner so they can hover up all of the contracts and make more money for themselves.
(And probably through an offshore company so they don’t pay tax on it)
 
Benzin said:
In other surprising news. Some people involved with Reform are.... racist?


From: https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1806398176263311837
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I watched that, with jaw wide open and my brain bollocking said jaw. Shouting "of course this is how reform staff speak, what did you expect?"

And as for the token farage response at the end. Copy and pasted from all the other times that people associated with a party he leads get caught by the press.
 
cloudburster said:
Reforms campaign seems to just be 'oops, sorry, we had no idea almost all our candidates are historically racist, xenophobic, genuinely bigoted tossers!'.
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They blamed the company they hired to vet potential candidates for the issue of having former BNP members in their party standing as candidates.

Doubt such "revelations" will change the minds of those planning to vote for them. The Twitter comments on that post are full of whataboutery for example.

Can't imagine the Putin love in will affect them much either in a negative way either. Though the one standing in Salisbury certainly put his foot in mouth over such comments.
 
Benzin said:
They blamed the company they hired to vet potential candidates for the issue of having former BNP members in their party standing as candidates.

Doubt such "revelations" will change the minds of those planning to vote for them. The Twitter comments on that post are full of whataboutery for example.

Can't imagine the Putin love in will affect them much either in a negative way either. Though the one standing in Salisbury certainly put his foot in mouth over such comments.
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Well I was considering voting reform as I am not a fan of any of the main 3 parties, but I will now probably vote green.

The Putin comments from Farage did it for me. Even Putin himself doesn't claim he invaded Ukraine because of NATO aggression. His excuse was to get rid of Ukrainian Nazis, but we all know the real reason is because he wants the soviet union back.

As for far right candidates , that is a real problem for the party, and with reform being the furthest right of the main stream parties it will inevitably attract some from the far right. So for that reason and the Putin comments , they wont be getting my vote.
 
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