2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[QTXAdsy]

Kirkcaldy is back in Labour hands once again as well as the SNP all being kicked out of Fife. A good night personally

Anyway, this result is worse for the SNP than the Tories for at least we all kind of expected the Tories to lose badly, what we didn't expect was the SNP to lose so badly as I expected they'd have 15 to 20 seats, I didn't expect it to be this bad for them but they, much like the Tories, have suffered from many documented scandals and changing leaders a lot which weirdly makes them and the Conservatives more alike than they'd care to admit.

If Labour can keep the momentum going into 2026, this should make for an interesting turn of events for the Scottish Elections that year with the Greens, having been screwed by the SNP, likely wanting revenge too.

 

[BarryZola]

Reform 4 million votes so far = 4 seats.
Lib Dem's 3.5 million votes so far = 71 seats.

Greens 2 million votes = 4 seats.
Sinn Fein 200,000 votes = 7 seats.

Depending on where you live your opinion and vote is worth less than another individual elsewhere.

 

[GaryH]

Reform 4 million votes so far = 4 seats.
Lib Dem's 3.5 million votes so far = 71 seats.

Greens 2 million votes = 4 seats.
Sinn Fein 200,000 votes = 7 seats.

Depending on where you live your opinion and vote is worth less than another individual elsewhere.

Shows very clearly how broken the system is.

Incredibly close in central Devon last night with 0.1% in it. Conservatives held their seat with 31.5% but Labour only just missed out with 31.4%. Lib Dems have taken a few Devon seats this morning.

 

[Benzin]

FPTP is only a problematic system when it suits.

I would imagine Farage platforming that a LOT.

Also Reform came second in a lot of places. Sometimes it's just how the boundaries are. Could have 19k votes but lose to someone with 20k. Still counts to the final total.

 

[Alphe86]

Pretty sure during the coalition days Farage was speaking out that changing the voting system is an attack on British values.
Funny how opinions can change eh

 

[flyingguitar]

FPTP is only a problematic system when it suits.

I would imagine Farage platforming that a LOT.

Also Reform came second in a lot of places. Sometimes it's just how the boundaries are. Could have 19k votes but lose to someone with 20k. Still counts to the final total.

I think we have seen where the labour safe seats have had small swings to labour, but ones that were tory have swung a huge amount and I think that it is mostly people in labour safe seats staying at home because either tory or labour voters think their seat is a foregone conclusion but reform votes are a protest vote, and you do see lower turnouts in those seats, I do think it should change, but I think it should change to a ranked choice voting would be a more appropriate solution over proportional voting, as people still have a say throughout the process (how it works in many places that use it is you can still put an x in one box, but you should rank the candidates by putting a number in the box, I think this would encourage votes for smaller parties and not require people to think tactically.

 

[Matt N]

Now we’ve only got 2 seats left to declare, I think we can make a rough conclusion on the exit poll and how accurate it was.

Personally, I think it was overall quite accurate, but with some notable discrepancies. The number of Labour seats appears to be pretty close to what the exit poll predicted (410 exit poll vs 412 actual result), the scale of Conservative defeat actually appears to have been underestimated slightly (131 exit poll vs 121 actual result), the Lib Dems were underestimated by a bit (61 exit poll vs 71 actual result), the scale of the SNP annihilation was pretty accurately forecast (10 exit poll vs 9 annual result), but Reform were quite considerably overestimated (13 exit poll vs 4 actual result) and Green were somewhat underestimated (2 exit poll vs 4 actual result).

What do people reckon to the exit poll’s accuracy this time around?

 

[Dobba]

FPTP is only a problematic system when it suits.

I would imagine Farage platforming that a LOT.

Also Reform came second in a lot of places. Sometimes it's just how the boundaries are. Could have 19k votes but lose to someone with 20k. Still counts to the final total.

Thank goodness Starmer didn't provide every politician and activist who will talk about almost nothing but PR for the next five years with a series of clips from his leadership campaign of him saying how awful FPTP is.

 

[BigT]

Thank goodness Starmer didn't provide every politician and activist who will talk about almost nothing but PR for the next five years with a series of clips from his leadership campaign of him saying how awful FPTP is.

With less than 25% of eligible voters voting for Labour I guess he will remain shtum.
This election has shown the serious imperfections in the FPTP system more than any other, never has a party lucked in with such a poor performance.

 

[tayspru]

With regards vote share, a not insignificant amount of traditional Labour voters will have “lent” their vote to Green and LD to get the Tories out. FPTP is a crap system but this time Labour allies worked out how to game it for the benefit of removing the Conservatives

 

[Mick]

Now we’ve only got 2 seats left to declare, I think we can make a rough conclusion on the exit poll and how accurate it was.

Personally, I think it was overall quite accurate, but with some notable discrepancies. The number of Labour seats appears to be pretty close to what the exit poll predicted (410 exit poll vs 412 actual result), the scale of Conservative defeat actually appears to have been underestimated slightly (131 exit poll vs 121 actual result), the Lib Dems were underestimated by a bit (61 exit poll vs 71 actual result), the scale of the SNP annihilation was pretty accurately forecast (10 exit poll vs 9 annual result), but Reform were quite considerably overestimated (13 exit poll vs 4 actual result) and Green were somewhat underestimated (2 exit poll vs 4 actual result).

What do people reckon to the exit poll’s accuracy this time around?

The broad figures were close enough, but when they drilled into it seat by seat it was a bit of a mess. For example they had Labour winning Mansfield, where Lee Anderson walked it for Reform, they had Reform winning places like Barnsley that Labour cruised, I don’t think it fully understood the level of tactical voting.

 

[BigT]

Moving on from the results for a minute, the new PM has promised so much on day one that’s it’s unfortunate it a Friday when he will knock off at 6.

 

[jon81uk]

Moving on from the results for a minute, the new PM has promised so much on day one that’s it’s unfortunate it a Friday when he will knock off at 6.

Friday night dinner is a particular time for Jewish people to take time with their family. I see no issue with him trying to make space for that. Obviously today is going to be a very busy one so it is unlikely he will get to, but on an average week I don't see the issue with trying to have dinner with your wife and kids?

 

[Benzin]

Is there much an incoming PM can do on day 1?

Gotta see the King and set up cabinet. But not exactly like they can waltz in and throw a few new laws in motion.

It's more frustrating that the summer holidays are coming up. So barely any time to do anything because they HAVE to break off.

Lots of problems with Starmer, but clocking off for dedicated family time is not one of them.

 

[BigT]

Of course I’m playing but it goes to show what a silly thing it was to keep saying, “On day one” every two minutes on my Facebook feed.

 

[Rob]

Of course I’m playing but it goes to show what a silly thing it was to keep saying, “On day one” every two minutes on my Facebook feed.

Doesn’t take a genius to work out that “on day one” a figure of speech rather than something that’s actually going to happen. No meaningful change can ever happen on day one, but the wheels can begin to be put in motion.

 

[BigT]

Doesn’t take a genius to work out that “on day one” a figure of speech rather than something that’s actually going to happen. No meaningful change can ever happen on day one, but the wheels can begin to be put in motion.

It’s not a figure of speech it was quite deliberate, on day one means just that so he lied.
He would have known it’s not possible on day one so why say it? That’s his first lie, what will be his second? No increase in taxes? No rejoining the EU?
I’m just setting expectations here so you are all ready when you are paying a lot more tax and getting lied to daily.

 

[jon81uk]

It’s not a figure of speech it was quite deliberate, on day one means just that so he lied.
He would have known it’s not possible on day one so why say it? That’s his first lie, what will be his second? No increase in taxes? No rejoining the EU?
I’m just setting expectations here so you are all ready when you are paying a lot more tax and getting lied to daily.

All politicians talk in figures of speech. It is obvious that "on day one" doesn't literally mean the 5th July 2024, it means shortly after the cabinet is formed and he meets with his team.
If he had stated on the fifth of July 2024 I will do this, then yes it would be a lie if it then didn't happen. But "on day one" is generic politician speak.

 

[Dobba]

In fairness, if you're excited about a Starmer government, I'm not sure being lied to by him is much of a threat.

 

[shakey]

With less than 25% of eligible voters voting for Labour I guess he will remain shtum.
This election has shown the serious imperfections in the FPTP system more than any other, never has a party lucked in with such a poor performance.

Yep . FPTP is a shocking system .

Labour only picked up a third of all votes and got a landslide. And they only got 1.5% more votes than in the last general election.

Lib Dems got a similar vote from last time but gained 63 more seats.

Reform got 14.3% of the vote compared to the 12.2% for the Lib Dems but got just 4 seats compared to the Lib Dems 71.

It is a terrible system and although Labour and Lib Dems will be claiming it's what the people wanted. The reality is that almost the same amount of people voted for them as in the last election.











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