With regard to Labour’s vote share; yes, it’s very, very low for a majority government (I’m honestly quite stunned at how low it actually was), but Labour still came at least 10% ahead of the next largest party, which is a pretty decisive victory. If Labour had the same vote share and landslide and the Tories were only a couple of points behind, or even ahead as has happened in FPTP before, I could understand the discontent, but Labour did win pretty decisively in terms of vote share. I think the landslide is more a sign of how big the gap was between Labour and the next largest party than a sign of Labour’s vote share. Overall, I think Labour have quite decisively won by any measure, and I think the party has cause to be proud, particularly given the situation they found themselves in after the 2019 election.
With that being said, I do not think that this election result is necessarily all sunshine and roses for Labour by any stretch.
That vote share is low for a majority government, and that arguably signals that the coalition of support Labour has built is quite fragile. I heard someone say that Labour’s support is “wide, but not very deep”, and I fully agree with that; they have a fair amount of very marginal victories. For example; in my seat, the Forest of Dean, Labour only won by a majority of 278, and when they unseated Liz Truss in South West Norfolk, they won by a majority of less than 1,000. The low vote share implies that their current support base is built largely on anti-Tory sentiment rather than particular enthusiasm for Labour, and the low margins of victory in many seats mean that even a small swing to the Tories or a different party could drastically alter their electoral prospects next time around. When Labour are no longer the “breath of fresh air” and have been the incumbent government for 5 years, will this coalition built on anti-Tory sentiment still unite behind them? I’m not so sure.
If I were Labour, I’d also be mildly wary of the party’s performance in some of its safe seats; Labour’s vote share actually flatlined or reduced in many of their safe seats. In many safe Labour seats in the North East, for example, Reform UK got an absolutely huge vote share and the overall swing was actually away from Labour and towards Reform. The party also got really challenged by independents and other left-wing parties in many of its metropolitan safe seats, with many shadow cabinet heavyweights having reduced majorities and the likes of Jonathan Ashworth even losing their seats.