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UK Politics General Discussion

What will be the result of the UK’s General Election?

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Yep . FPTP is a shocking system .

Labour only picked up a third of all votes and got a landslide. And they only got 1.5% more votes than in the last general election.

Lib Dems got a similar vote from last time but gained 63 more seats.

Reform got 14.3% of the vote compared to the 12.2% for the Lib Dems but got just 4 seats compared to the Lib Dems 71.

It is a terrible system and although Labour and Lib Dems will be claiming it's what the people wanted. The reality is that almost the same amount of people voted for them as in the last election.

The issue would be trying to find some way of also allowing local representation, for example Jeremy Corbyn was elected as an independent candidate. The system sort of works when you look at it as "I think this person or party is best for the needs of my consitituancy", but it doesn't work if you consider it as voting as a country as a whole.
 
The issue would be trying to find some way of also allowing local representation, for example Jeremy Corbyn was elected as an independent candidate. The system sort of works when you look at it as "I think this person or party is best for the needs of my consitituancy", but it doesn't work if you consider it as voting as a country as a whole.
Yes that's a fair point but we do have separate local elections for that.

Some people do vote on local issues in general elections, but the vast majority of people vote for who they want to run the country as a whole.

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Yes that's a fair point but we do have separate local elections for that.

Some people do vote on local issues in general elections, but the vast majority of people vote for who they want to run the country as a whole.

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Yes but you are voting for the MP you wish to run the country as a whole on your behalf. Using the same example as before the people of Islington North want Jeremy Corbyn as their representative in the House of Commons, not the Labour candidate (Praful Nargund). Its not about voting for local issues, its voting for the human who will be your representative.

Edit to add, I think this is where the TV debates and the big focus on party leaders isn't helpful. There should be more focus on the human you are electing, not the party they belong to. Maybe we need local debates in each constituency or something?
 
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Yes but you are voting for the MP you wish to run the country as a whole on your behalf. Using the same example as before the people of Islington North want Jeremy Corbyn as their representative in the House of Commons, not the Labour candidate (Praful Nargund). Its not about voting for local issues, its voting for the human who will be your representative.
Yes I realise there are independent MPs but the vast majority of the people don't vote on local issues in a general election.

Local elections tend to be slightly different in terms of results with more people voting on local issues.

I agree that the FPTP system does usually create strong governments which isn't a bad thing, and a different system may not necessarily be better.

PR is ultimately the fairest system but how that would work in the British political climate is hard to say, and we are almost certainly going to have FPTP for many years to come, despite it's obvious flaws.

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Yes I realise there are independent MPs but the vast majority of the people don't vote on local issues in a general election.

I don't think they are voting on local issues. Four other independants have got a seat with their main platform being the war in Gaza, thats not a local issue, but obviously that person and the issues they were talking about are important to those people. I suppose it is "issues that are important locally" rather than "local issues" maybe? Similarly the people of Clacton must feel that what Reform is saying is important to them locally.
 
With regard to Labour’s vote share; yes, it’s very, very low for a majority government (I’m honestly quite stunned at how low it actually was), but Labour still came at least 10% ahead of the next largest party, which is a pretty decisive victory. If Labour had the same vote share and landslide and the Tories were only a couple of points behind, or even ahead as has happened in FPTP before, I could understand the discontent, but Labour did win pretty decisively in terms of vote share. I think the landslide is more a sign of how big the gap was between Labour and the next largest party than a sign of Labour’s vote share. Overall, I think Labour have quite decisively won by any measure, and I think the party has cause to be proud, particularly given the situation they found themselves in after the 2019 election.

With that being said, I do not think that this election result is necessarily all sunshine and roses for Labour by any stretch.

That vote share is low for a majority government, and that arguably signals that the coalition of support Labour has built is quite fragile. I heard someone say that Labour’s support is “wide, but not very deep”, and I fully agree with that; they have a fair amount of very marginal victories. For example; in my seat, the Forest of Dean, Labour only won by a majority of 278, and when they unseated Liz Truss in South West Norfolk, they won by a majority of less than 1,000. The low vote share implies that their current support base is built largely on anti-Tory sentiment rather than particular enthusiasm for Labour, and the low margins of victory in many seats mean that even a small swing to the Tories or a different party could drastically alter their electoral prospects next time around. When Labour are no longer the “breath of fresh air” and have been the incumbent government for 5 years, will this coalition built on anti-Tory sentiment still unite behind them? I’m not so sure.

If I were Labour, I’d also be mildly wary of the party’s performance in some of its safe seats; Labour’s vote share actually flatlined or reduced in many of their safe seats. In many safe Labour seats in the North East, for example, Reform UK got an absolutely huge vote share and the overall swing was actually away from Labour and towards Reform. The party also got really challenged by independents and other left-wing parties in many of its metropolitan safe seats, with many shadow cabinet heavyweights having reduced majorities and the likes of Jonathan Ashworth even losing their seats.
 
It’s not a figure of speech it was quite deliberate, on day one means just that so he lied.
He would have known it’s not possible on day one so why say it? That’s his first lie, what will be his second? No increase in taxes? No rejoining the EU?
I’m just setting expectations here so you are all ready when you are paying a lot more tax and getting lied to daily.
Those sour grapes really are sticking in your throat aren't they!
Politicians lie...hold the front page.
How long have you lived in the real world exactly?
 
Those sour grapes really are sticking in your throat aren't they!
Politicians lie...hold the front page.
How long have you lived in the real world exactly?

Exactly.

The logistics of becoming a PM will take alot of time. Especially on day one when you've been awake for over 24hr. Visit king. Get up to speed with any urgent government action. Intelligence debriefs. Setting up security. Appointing cabinet and of course choose wall paper for new house in Downing street.

After the constant bullshitting that was the Tory government we suffered for 14 years. I'm sure we can allow him a slight grace on this
 
Yvette Cooper in the cabinet doesn't sit too well with me. She was an absolute nightmare after the Brexit vote trying to stamp all over democracy and get it overturned. Trying every trick in the book (and writing new ones). For clarity, they can overturn it for all I care in the coming years. It had its chance but it turns out that it's just not going to be possible to keep immigration to sensible levels so whatever, go for it. Brexit was the last roll of the dice on that front and the only party suggesting that they wanted to curb it couldn't or wouldn't do it, so crack on with it. Not debating whether immigration is a good or bad thing, that's immaterial now, and it's way too nuanced to go off on a tangent again. But yeah, just don't like the way she goes about things at all. Home Secretary as well :laughing:
 
Farage slagging FPTP now. Look forward to the next mention of proportional representation if he goes ahead of one of the main two parties in the polls.
 
The issue that everyone seems to be missing when slating FPTP is that you can’t just apply PR to the votes received, as every vote was cast on the basis of FPTP and had it been PR everyone would’ve voted differently.

If Reform wanted less second places and more MPs, they should’ve canvassed more and won more votes.
 
Yvette Cooper in the cabinet doesn't sit too well with me. She was an absolute nightmare after the Brexit vote trying to stamp all over democracy and get it overturned. Trying every trick in the book (and writing new ones). For clarity, they can overturn it for all I care in the coming years. It had its chance but it turns out that it's just not going to be possible to keep immigration to sensible levels so whatever, go for it. Brexit was the last roll of the dice on that front and the only party suggesting that they wanted to curb it couldn't or wouldn't do it, so crack on with it. Not debating whether immigration is a good or bad thing, that's immaterial now, and it's way too nuanced to go off on a tangent again. But yeah, just don't like the way she goes about things at all. Home Secretary as well :laughing:

If I lived a mile up the road she would be my MP.

I her defence she did a good job at being a shadow home sec. Especially when braverman was in office. I'm guessing time will tell with her.

The Brexit thing was weird from her. Especially since Castleford would vote itself out of Castleford if it could.
 
The issue that everyone seems to be missing when slating FPTP is that you can’t just apply PR to the votes received, as every vote was cast on the basis of FPTP and had it been PR everyone would’ve voted differently.

If Reform wanted less second places and more MPs, they should’ve canvassed more and won more votes.
Most people won't vote much differently under PR

It would remove tactical votes which is a good thing and everyone's vote will actually count, so you can vote for the party you want knowing that it is not a wasted vote.

Starmer has reform to thank for his victory , without them he would have struggled to get a majority. The Tory and Reform vote share combined is higher than Labour.

Anyway it was a good day yesterday on the elections. Turnout was down in the constituency but my polling station was very busy . Had the usual issues of people turning up who were ineligible to vote or coming to the wrong station or coming to vote when they have had a postal vote, and one very angry bloke who was adamant his wife should be allowed to vote despite her not being a British citizen.

The count took longer than expected due to a few counting stations being a vote or two out but got there in the end.

Eventually flopped into bed at 5.30am

Bring on the local elections next year !

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Hardly surprising that Labour are the big winners under FPTP this time given that reform have taken a huge chunk of the Conservative vote.

In terms of the 2 seats left to declare, the Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire seat was neck and neck between SNP & Lib Dem on the first count and is too close to call. Apparently Reform were slightly ahead (of Labour) in South Basildon & East Thurrock on the first count so it's likely they could yet win a 5th seat. Annoying if they do win another so long after everything else has been settled as it'll put them directly in the spotlight as opposed to being just one of many talking points.
 
Hardly surprising that Labour are the big winners under FPTP this time given that reform have taken a huge chunk of the Conservative vote.

In terms of the 2 seats left to declare, the Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire seat was neck and neck between SNP & Lib Dem on the first count and is too close to call. Apparently Reform were slightly ahead (of Labour) in South Basildon & East Thurrock on the first count so it's likely they could yet win a 5th seat. Annoying if they do win another so long after everything else has been settled as it'll put them directly in the spotlight as opposed to being just one of many talking points.
It's just been confirmed that Reform have won South Basildon and East Thurrock.
 
Apparently Reform were slightly ahead (of Labour) in South Basildon & East Thurrock on the first count so it's likely they could yet win a 5th seat. Annoying if they do win another so long after everything else has been settled as it'll put them directly in the spotlight as opposed to being just one of many talking points.
Yes previously Reform had as many seats as Green Party, Plaid Cymru and those independents who want an end to war in Gaza. By getting that extra seat pushing reform ahead of the Greens it does give them a slightly bigger mandate.
 
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