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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

What is your predicted polling outcome for the 2024 UK general election

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 3 3.2%

  • Conversative Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 1 1.1%

  • Labour Majority

    Votes: 64 67.4%

  • Labour Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 27 28.4%

  • Other Result (Please specify in your post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    95
Last week???
You haven't been reading the Mail my friend...the last month, at least.
All absolute shite, but better than reporting on the tories progress I suppose.
 
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Not sure I'd agree that it's nonsense about Rayner IF she has dodged tax by saying that a 2nd residence was actually where she lived when it wasn't. Admittedly I havn't checked on the progress of the allegations recently, but it is a serious matter.
 
There's an irony about a lot of right leaning people casting stones about tax evasion mind.

It's gone quiet. So presumably it's not gone anywhere, at least not until they bother announcing the GE.
 
Benzin said:
There's an irony about a lot of right leaning people casting stones about tax evasion mind.

It's gone quiet. So presumably it's not gone anywhere, at least not until they bother announcing the GE.
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Not gone quiet, they were still prattling on yesterday.
"Next door says he will prove her lies in court as witness" etc.
 
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They are claiming that the queues such arrangements attract can be undignified for some people - but not sure which group they refer to, or how the proposals solve the apparent issue.
 
The Conservatives seem to be chasing the Reform vote with populist right wing policies rather than realigning with the centre ground. Extreme left and right policies don't tend to do well with the electorate.

My question is, on the assumption the Conservatives are defeated at the next election, will they take the path back to the centre-right or will they double down on the crazy? There are people within the party who subscribe to the Liz Truss way of thinking... yes our policy failed, but that's because it wasn't extreme enough, we need to be more extreme next time to make it work!
 
Alsty said:
The Conservatives seem to be chasing the Reform vote with populist right wing policies rather than realigning with the centre ground. Extreme left and right policies don't tend to do well with the electorate.

My question is, on the assumption the Conservatives are defeated at the next election, will they take the path back to the centre-right or will they double down on the crazy? There are people within the party who subscribe to the Liz Truss way of thinking... yes our policy failed, but that's because it wasn't extreme enough, we need to be more extreme next time to make it work!
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I suspect that will come down to how much of the vote they lose towards Labour vs Reform.

I fear for a further lurch to the right if significant numbers vote Reform since they will try and win those voters nutters back.
 
And so at long flipping last, Sunak has confirmed that there'll be a general election in the second half of this year. Now all he needs to do is confirm the date...which I suspect he'll hold off doing for as long as he possibly can.
 
So, because I'm a saddo, I've been glued to this speculation all morning (I should probably be doing some uni work instead).

This may come to nothing, but rumours of the Prime Minister calling a General Election today started yesterday afternoon, and have intensified ever since.

  • There was a cabinet meeting held on Monday, that cabinet members reportedly had no idea what it was about beforehand.
  • Journalists have been asking cabinet members and No.10 since yesterday. Rather than the usual denials, they've been silent.
  • Steven Flynn MP outright asked the PM at PMQ's. Unsurprisingly the Prime Minister did not confirm or deny and just reiterated that it would be held in the second half of this year.
  • Tory MP's and cabinet members are briefing journalists that inflation "falling" to 2.3%, the IMF predicting interest rate cuts later in the year, growth and growth forecasts up, migration falling 25% before it inevitably rises again during the summer, and the first flight to Rwanda due to take off in a few weeks, is all about as "good" as the news will get for the government between now and the autumn.
  • The King is in London and has an audience with the PM later today.
  • It is being compared to Gordon Brown's election that never was, where it was thought Brown let speculation run rife without damping it down, and that it ended up damaging his electoral chances as he was seen to be "bottling it". With polls suggesting that the majority of the country want an election, it could be damaging for Sunak to let 24 hours of speculation run it's course before backing down.
  • Kier Starmer did not give Sunak the oxygen at PMQ's to kick start his campaign by doing a "lap of honour" about recent economic news, instead focusing on the infected blood scandal in a subdued exchange.
  • Parliament breaks up for recess on Friday. Any Bills still going through the commons at present are still at quite preliminary stages.
I think he'd be crazy not to call a date today or tomorrow, even if it ends up being the autumn. I think it would be hugely damaging to not deny until the last minute owing to how hungry people are for an election. I also agree that current news for the government, and upcoming news over the summer, is pretty much as good as it will get.

He'd be better calling it now, and going for July 4th. Brag about economic figures, flights to Rwanda, and Spings immigration figures. The Euros will be in the Quarter Final stages by then and hopefully we'll have some nice weather. Wait until the Autumn, and he'll be relying on the Bank of England lowering interest rates (uncertain and Andrew Bailey has signalled they possibly won't), it's a gamble whether inflation will fall below 2%, and there's the possibility that things could get worse of he waits. He'll also want to hold it before the summers small boats crossing figures are released.

My money is on an announcement soon, but end of summer/early autumn. Before conference season. Not certain by any stretch though.
 
11th July, just before the holidays, to try to catch people in a summery, pre holidays positive spirit.
And what people will do to avoid their schoolwork...oh so many times!
I used to resort to tidying up...couldn't possibly study in such a tip.
 
GaryH said:
Is the government planning for chaos over the election period? Have you got your 3 days worth of supplies?

news.sky.com

Britons should have three days' worth of tinned food and water, government says

A new website advising on what to do in an emergency is being launched as part of the government's push to ensure the UK is more resilient to threats.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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Recent happenings have indicated that they plan on fighting this election with defense and security playing a prominent role. Basically announcing their 2.5% of GDP funding commitment to the armed forces (after years of cutting it), scaremongering that a load of bad guys are about to launch an attack on us at any moment, and that Starmer is some sort of baddie sympathiser. So the timing of this hyperbolic fear mongering is more than a little bit suspect.
 
Looking forward to the next General Election. I might even stay up all night to watch the current shower of MPs get a boot up their derriere.

Sad Go Away GIF by La Guarimba Film Festival
 
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