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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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I was looking at the excellent Worldometers dashboards and noticed they have a link to projections by IHME*. The projections for the UK are here.

Based on current data and trends they are projecting the currently daily death rate of around 500 per day will drop to 200 by the end of the month, then down to 30 daily deaths by the end of June, becoming single figures in August. Total deaths will stabilise in August at around 43,500 (40-50,000 uncertainty range).

Have a look, they have some great graphs and insights.

* Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington
 
Alsty said:
I was looking at the excellent Worldometers dashboards and noticed they have a link to projections by IHME*. The projections for the UK are here.

Based on current data and trends they are projecting the currently daily death rate of around 500 per day will drop to 200 by the end of the month, then down to 30 daily deaths by the end of June, becoming single figures in August. Total deaths will stabilise in August at around 43,500 (40-50,000 uncertainty range).

Have a look, they have some great graphs and insights.

* Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington
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Interesting as most scientists and public health modellers seem to indicate another wave being in August. The NHS are preparing for this as we speak.
 
Thought I'd share something that might offer some support if anyone is struggling post COVID.

Since getting over the illness nearly 6 weeks ago, I've probably had 6-7 days where I have felt great, in fact on most of them I was able to do some intense exercise. Unfortunately for most other days I was small breathing issues, chest pains, dizziness or I felt really lethargic. I searched around but couldn't find clear official information on lasting effects or if people were still have consistent issues post COVID.

I put my symptoms down to anxiety or just feeling low and tried to ride it out, some days were better than others. However this week my breathing got way worse, so I called 111 and as I've moved to England and don't have a doctor in the area, I was sent to hospital for assessment.

It was scary going to hospital but immediately I was put at ease by the amazing staff. All patients are masked on entry, assessed for COVID and then split into 2 sections of the hospital (COVID and non-COVID). After a full MOT of chest x-rays, blood test, ECG, etc.. They found that COVID had triggered Asthma. I don't believe I was Asthmatic before but it's possible it is a pre-existing issue.

So now I have a diagnosis and I've stopped googling every obscure death that my symptoms matched, I have finally managed to chill out. Although I have to take 8 tablets a day that come in a strip of 7, I don't have OCD but that triggers my anxiety again :D. Also I had to pay for a prescription for the first so I'm heading back over the border ASAP (what is this, America!:p )

My biggest issue was being scared to use the NHS and take away someone's chance of getting critical help but if you need help, please go seek it out.

This morning browsing twitter I stumbled on this https://shero.substack.com/p/what-it-feels-like-to-have-covid and that what's triggered me to share my post. Hope this helps at least puts someone's mind to rest and to reach out for help if needed.

TL : DR - Has post COVID asthma, didn't seek medical help, needlesly suffered for weeks, points out to get help when needed! #StayAlert
 
Well Morrisons have not got queue jumping in place. It call basket shop.
So is the new message is shop daily increase footfall?

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So it looks like what I saw on Facebook with the holiday parks. It makes me feel slightly uncomfortable to think they could still will charge the usual rate. If a park has closed its facilities and offers nothing but a caravan then I can’t see how they can still change x amount of hundreds.
 
Mr Pearse said:
So it looks like what I saw on Facebook with the holiday parks. It makes me feel slightly uncomfortable to think they could still will charge the usual rate. If a park has closed its facilities and offers nothing but a caravan then I can’t see how they can still change x amount of hundreds.
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Its a bit like alton saying you can walk around the park and garden for £50 each. With no rides or food outlets.

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In a sense yeah, it’s not surprising but slightly annoying how many company’s are will willing to push to reopen in time for the summer season and not think of guest satisfaction. I kinda thought that would be the way tho. Companies have lost a lot of the year and they will claw back what ever they can. Shame it’s had to come to this but I guess come July/August it will be interesting to see how things are in Wales and Scotland.
 
Some folks are desperate for the theme parks to reopen. They're just catering to that market. Personally I don't fancy a socially distant theme park trip.
 
speedy said:
Some folks are desperate for the theme parks to reopen. They're just catering to that market. Personally I don't fancy a socially distant theme park trip.
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Tbh there's probably some people who will for a bit enjoy not being packed in like sardines (aka me).
Long term it's not going to be good

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It comes down to factors when these places open

1. Demand
2. Is it viable

I have no idea how many places will have the demand at the time. Right now no one knows when places can reopen properly so the demand could be high now but anything could happen between now and July. It’s a weird one but a lot of businesses will try and jump on the summer season to get some money back and it’s going to be interesting to see how they deal with it. I live in wales so obviously we are doing things different just like Scotland so no one has any idea what to expect in the near future.
 
imanautie said:
Tbh there's probably some people who will for a bit enjoy not being packed in like sardines (aka me).
Long term it's not going to be good

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Of course, though I doubt you would enjoy the reduced throughputs that'll result from washing down each ride between riders. People need to be more respectful of others personal space anyway, maybe coronavirus will make people more aware... wishful thinking.
 
speedy said:
Of course, though I doubt you would enjoy the reduced throughputs that'll result from washing down each ride between riders. People need to be more respectful of others personal space anyway, maybe coronavirus will make people more aware... wishful thinking.
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Hopefully people respecting personal space is one thing that changes long term post Corona virus.

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Duinrell has opened and has a "one household group per car" on Falcon (their Eurofighter). This has lead to some cars being sent round with one person.

It's... Difficult to ascertain how any parks will operate sensibly. The upside of barely anyone in the parks will be reduced by the limited operations.

Literally my park concerns are related to California in November. Likely visit Mingo when the big cred opens as well but most other trips are pretty much off the table. Even Phantasialand might be a last minute job.
 
This is a promising development in the vaccine world; the UK government has now promised 30 million vaccine doses by September if the vaccine is proven to work once efficacy results are available next month: https://apple.news/A0XI1u0ekRDyfU9pgcGJ4iA

If this works, which I’m cautiously optimistic that it might from current reports, then this timeline would be a major breakthrough! We should have a good idea of whether or not it works by next month, so if it does work, AstraZeneca and the other companies can scale up production and start producing!
 
Matt N said:
This is a promising development in the vaccine world; the UK government has now promised 30 million vaccine doses by September if the vaccine is proven to work once efficacy results are available next month: https://apple.news/A0XI1u0ekRDyfU9pgcGJ4iA

If this works, which I’m cautiously optimistic that it might from current reports, then this timeline would be a major breakthrough! We should have a good idea of whether or not it works by next month, so if it does work, AstraZeneca and the other companies can scale up production and start producing!
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"If it works"
 
Yes it's great, but remember that there are multiple strains of the virus. Our vaccine will be for the European strain. If we go out of Europe we'll still be at risk of catching a different strain, and if anyone from outside Europe who's had the vaccine for their country's strain comes into Europe, they'll still be at risk of catching the European strain.
 
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