Coronavirus

[D4n]

I was referring to case numbers for the Botswana variant exclusively. I know Britain’s own case numbers are high, but cases of the Botswana variant are low, and thus far it has not made its way too far outside Africa, from what I can tell. Next to Delta or the “child of Delta”, it may well not have the transmission advantage required to beat Delta as the dominant strain.

Sorry if I didn’t make that clear!

Britain has also applied a South Africa travel ban, so that should hopefully stop the variant from gaining a foothold.

Hong Kong has confirmed cases so it has made its way out of Africa.

 

[Jb85]

Hong Kong has confirmed cases so it has made its way out of Africa.

This will already be worldwide - it just hasn’t been reflected in test results yet. We’ve seen how fast other variants have spread

let’s hope it doesn’t become dominant because the reaction to this strain seems a lot firmer than previous strains

 

[Rob]

This will already be worldwide - it just hasn’t been reflected in test results yet. We’ve seen how fast other variants have spread

let’s hope it doesn’t become dominant because the reaction to this strain seems a lot firmer than previous strains

Looking at someone on paper and in the real world are two very different things, but it does sound like this may have a good chance of overtaking Delta as the most dominant strain. What this actually means though, well we just don't know.

Important to remember that vaccines will still provide some protection, it just might be reduced to a currently unknown extent. And it is also important to remember that we have many more treatments available now that we did at the start of 2020. Certainly a reminder that this is far from over, but hopefully it is something we can deal with.

 

[Matt N]

Oh god, I think I heavily underestimated this variant, and it is really starting to worry me having read a bit more…

I’ll admit I’m incredibly worried having read up a little more; I really think it might be worth heading back into lockdown if we get a case of this, as if it spreads, it could strongly derail our progress. I’d rather a shorter lockdown earlier on than a lockdown later on that lasts longer and causes more damage. With this variant being so heavily mutated, I think a 4th lockdown is a strong possibility if this variant spreads even slightly in Britain, and I’ll admit that I’m starting to really worry that this thing could genuinely derail everything once again. I’m certainly more doubtful about my chances of going abroad next April at very least…

Just when you think we’re making progress, the disease launches another curveball that takes us back to square one… will this cycle ever end, or is this how we’re going to live from now on?

Am I worrying unnecessarily, or are my concerns justified?

 

[Rob]

Oh god, I think I heavily underestimated this variant, and it is really starting to worry me having read a bit more…

I’ll admit I’m incredibly worried having read up a little more; I really think it might be worth heading back into lockdown if we get a case of this, as if it spreads, it could strongly derail our progress. I’d rather a shorter lockdown earlier on than a lockdown later on that lasts longer and causes more damage. With this variant being so heavily mutated, I think a 4th lockdown is a strong possibility if this variant spreads even slightly in Britain, and I’ll admit that I’m starting to really worry that this thing could genuinely derail everything once again. I’m certainly more doubtful about my chances of going abroad next April at very least…

Just when you think we’re making progress, the disease launches another curveball that takes us back to square one… will this cycle ever end, or is this how we’re going to live from now on?

Am I worrying unnecessarily, or are my concerns justified?

Nothing wrong with being concerned, as it is a concerning development, but there is still too much unkown about it to overly worry right now. It looks pretty nasty on paper but there is not yet a great understanding of how it does in the real world. Our vaccination rates are much higher than South Africa so that is not a representative comparison.

Even if vaccines are less effective against this variant, they will still likely help to reduce hospital admissions and deaths. And we have many more treatments now. So this is not going back to square one.

 

[jon81uk]

So, I finally have this thing. Well, I can't guarantee it, but I went to an event on Friday that was later found to be subject to an outbreak, despite having to take proof of vax along, as well as perform a test upon arrival. A friend I happened to meet both that night and the night before had a positive PCR. And so did my partner. I also have every common symptom for the vaccinated, except loss of taste/smell, fortunately; a persistent doziness (worse than usual!) and a cough being the most frustrating elements. We all did additional LFT tests that came back negative over several days, too. I could find out for absolute certain, but I'd rather not go wandering at this stage, and the system where I am is currently overwhelmed.

Continuing to rest up having been ill since Monday, and will take a paid PCR a week today to check I'm all clear.

Why not get an NHS PCR via post?

I've been pinged via the app, no symptons and vaccinated so don't need to isolate but I've ordered the suggested PCR test just in case.

 

[Alsty]

I'd try not to worry about it too much @Matt N. It will be a few weeks before we know if these mutations actually affect transmissibility, severity of disease or vaccine evasion. Just because it looks bad on paper doesn't necessarily mean it will be in the real world.

Pfizer have already started researching it and will know how effective the current vaccine is within 2 weeks. They can have a modified version within 100 days.

 

[Funcone]

I just went for a bike ride with my Dad. As we passed the local secondary school there were a bunch of anti vaxxers waving placards. It feels like the sort of thing you expect to see in a Louis Theroux documentary about a remote part of Mississippi. It’s strange seeing these things in your local neighborhood.

 

[Plastic Person]

Why not get an NHS PCR via post?

I've been pinged via the app, no symptons and vaccinated so don't need to isolate but I've ordered the suggested PCR test just in case.

I'm not in the UK, unfortunately. I've called off my travel plans for next weekend, so will get one done in-person tomorrow.

It's great that the NHS are able to readily provide PCR tests by post, had no idea.

 

[Matt N]

I have a question; hypothetically speaking, if this new variant from Botswana ends up being more transmissible, but substantially less severe (so less severe symptoms, lower chance of severe disease and death, lower percentage actually exhibiting symptoms), would it be worth just letting it rip so that it can outpace Delta?

I know that sounds like a bad idea on paper, and I’m admittedly unsure on the epidemiology of whether it would work any better, but if we’re going to have loads of cases, then surely it would probably be better to spread a substantially less severe variant around and make it become dominant than keep the more severe strains circulating?

Of course, all of that would go out of the window if it were more severe or equally severe. This would just be if it were substantially less severe.

 

[jon81uk]

I'm not in the UK, unfortunately. I've called off my travel plans for next weekend, so will get one done in-person tomorrow.

It's great that the NHS are able to readily provide PCR tests by post, had no idea.

Ah yeah not being in the UK makes it harder to use NHS services!

 

[JAperson]

Like @Matt N I am quite concerned about this variant. If it does turn out to be more resistant to the vaccines this could cause massive issue's and put us back a square one. Hopefully even if more resistant hopefully it's only by a small amount and we can manage it perfectly fine.

 

[GaryH]

There is so much concern at the moment because of the amount of mutations. No one yet knows what they all mean. That’s why there is so much panic.

There’s is no word yet if it spreads more easily, or evades vaccines or of it results in higher mortality. Unfortunately we have to wait and see and i would think it’s probably already in the U.K. just not detected yet.

 

[Jb85]

As predicted - it’s here

see you all next March!!

 

[Rojo]

We've not had a more researched and tracked disease in history. We'll see more mutations than ever as data is lumped in together between nations in almost real time.

It's a area of concern but only if there's vaccine escape. I'd think masks being mandatory, enforced social distancing possibly bubbles is more likely than full lockdown again

The timing will have conspiracy nuts up in arms.

 

[Skyscraper]

More restrictions are being announced right now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59443504

Travellers to UK must take a PCR test and self-isolate before result
The PM has announced that all travellers entering the UK must take a PCR test by the end of the second day after their arrival, and must self-isolate until they receive a negative test result.

Boris Johnson stresses he does not want to stop travel and border measures can only slow down the spread of any new variant - not stop it.

He says he hopes he will be able to lift measures at a later date.

Rules on masks in shops and public transport to be tightened
Johnson says rules on face coverings will be tightened up in shops and public transport.

The rules will be reviewed in three weeks.

"We don't know how effective our vaccines will be" against the new variant, Johnson says.

"But we have good reasons to believe they will provide at least some measure of protection."

 

[GaryH]

I think the mask rules are sensible - though I can’t see people doing it now

 

[Skyscraper]

 

[BigT]

That will be me avoiding shops for 3 weeks again then.

 

[JAperson]

I'm glad the government is actually taking action at a sensible time for once. I will wear my mask as I've attempted to do at all times in indoor public places. I think its a very sensible move and in my opinion it sounds like a sensible number of restrictions with nothing over the top.
Very sensible and so I will say to people wear your mask so we don't have to deal with this new variant until the scientists understand it.