Coronavirus

[shakey]

I don't think we will get a lockdown unless death rates and hospitalisations rise significantly. At the moment they both seem to be stable.

There is an argument that we don't know the full extent of omicron so locking down could be used as a "just in case" measure. But as others have said, the public would not be on board with that, let alone half of the governments MPs.

If death rates and hospitalisations go up then I would expect some sort of lockdown or restrictions in the new year.

 

[Matt N]

@Matt N I don't think we'll get another General Election for at least 3 years for that very reason. They know their position is weaker now than it was 2 years ago and unlike the last 2 elections there's no gain to holding another one early.

Couldn’t one technically happen through a vote of no confidence in the government? I thought the government losing a VONC automatically resulted in a general election?

Theresa May narrowly survived one of those, as well as multiple against her leadership, and rightly or wrongly, there seems to be a lot more deep-seated anger towards Boris and co right now than there ever was towards Theresa May based on what I gauge from the public mood, as well as the general mood in parliament.

I actually feel that a VONC may be how our next prime minister and/or our next general election come about based on the way things are going. I wouldn’t have said that a year ago, but public mood, as well as parliamentary mood, towards Boris Johnson seems to have turned drastically as of late.

 

[pluk]

If there were further restrictions they'd be followed by all but a very vocal minority, as was the case with all previous restrictions.

As with all previous covid decisions, it's an inenviable one. Indications are this variant is less deadly, but we don't know that for sure. It is certainly much more transmissible.

The issue is it irrefutably still is a serious or deadly virus for a not insignificant number. This variant may lead to far fewer hositalisations as a percentage, but if all of those who will get ill do so at once (which is the case with the higher transmission rate) rather than over months as has been the case you quickly have an overwhelmed NHS and bodies piling up, not only from the virus but other things going untreated. Once it has happened it's too late, action HAS to be preemptive.

Your job is to make a decision literally millions of lives depend upon. What do you do? I occasionally make decisions that individual lives can depend upon, it's no fun I can tell you. I wouldn't fancy multiplying it by a million I can assure you. Easy from behind the safety of your keyboard though, isn't it?

 

[Alsty]

Couldn’t one technically happen through a vote of no confidence in the government? I thought the government losing a VONC automatically resulted in a general election?
...
I actually feel that a VONC may be how our next prime minister and/or our next general election come about based on the way things are going.

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, if a majority of MPs vote for no confidence in the government then there is a 14 day period for a counter "vote of confidence" to pass. If after 14 days such a motion hasn't passed, an early general election is called.

The Conservatives currently have a significant majority of 79. If there was a vote of no confidence I don't believe their MPs would support such a move knowing it would lead to a General Election at a time when they are weak. They would effectively be voting to lose some of their majority and weaken their power.

Far more likely is the Conservate party to have a no confidence vote in their leader. This is completely diferent to the above, being only an internal process for their party. However if such a vote is held and they choose not to oust Boris Johnson, their rules state another vote against him cannot be held for 12 months. I imagine they are holding off waiting until the time is right and they know he can be ousted successfully. Another consideration is who will replace him? It's probably a political decision to wait until they have somebody lined up before they start such a process.

 

[Matt N]

As with all previous covid decisions, it's an inenviable one. Indications are this variant is less deadly, but we don't know that for sure. It is certainly much more transmissible.

The issue is it irrefutably still is a serious or deadly virus for a not insignificant number. This variant may lead to far fewer hositalisations as a percentage, but if all of those who will get ill do so at once (which is the case with the higher transmission rate) rather than over months as has been the case you quickly have an overwhelmed NHS and bodies piling up, not only from the virus but other things going untreated. Once it has happened it's too late, action HAS to be preemptive.

Your job is to make a decision literally millions of lives depend upon. What do you do? I occasionally make decisions that individual lives can depend upon, it's no fun I can tell you. I wouldn't fancy multiplying it by a million I can assure you. Easy from behind the safety of your keyboard though, isn't it?

I agree with this; as much as it’s very easy to say that you’d do a certain thing if you were in charge, or that the government should do a certain thing, I think you’d probably think very differently if you were the one pulling the trigger.

I don’t envy Boris in the slightest; whatever he does, I think a percentage of people will hate the decision regardless, which must be a horribly demoralising position to be in.

 

[rob666]

The problem with the politics isn't as simple as described.
The Tory voters knew Boris was a filthy liar before he was elected.
So did his fellow M.P.'s who voted him into office.
They chose him despite his lack of morals, his inability to tell the truth, blatant racism and all.
He hasn't changed his spots at all, so why would they kick him out?

 

[Plastic Person]

He hasn't changed his spots at all, so why would they kick him out?

Because now, the public are turning against him too. Even Ant & Dec have got time for a few digs.

I think Boris's jolly hockey sticks Churchill-lite tribute act has been stretched to the extremes of it's electability at this point. Question is whether he'd be replaced by a similarly centre-leaning figure such as Sunak or Hunt, or much worse, a Victorian-era lunatic like Rees-Mogg or Patel.

 

[AstroDan]

The biggest thing they could do for now is to limit the size of groups and insist on tables again in hospitalty.

The concept of visiting a nightclub or busy pub/bar with no masks just seems insane right now.

Tables all the way.

I do find the lack of any restrictions/mandates for bars/restaurants crazy.

 

[Matt N]

We’ve got confirmation that my sister’s PCR was positive, so we have now got confirmed COVID in our household. My dad’s was negative, however, and we weren’t all forced to self-isolate, so I’m guessing we haven’t got Omicron.

Currently being advised to take LFTs each day up to 27th December, so I might take as many as I can before then while also saving at least one for going back to university. I don’t currently have any symptoms, so I’m not sure if a PCR would be worthwhile given that I’m self-isolating.

Interestingly, I’m also a month too young to have to self-isolate… you apparently have to be 18 years 6 months to self-isolate, while I am 18 years 5 months.

 

[AstroDan]

We’ve got confirmation that my sister’s PCR was positive, so we have now got confirmed COVID in our household. My dad’s was negative, however, and we weren’t all forced to self-isolate, so I’m guessing we haven’t got Omicron.

It may well be Omicron - they do not genomically sequence every PCR. Either way, I don't think you have to isolate anyway now if you are jabbed.

Daily LFTs and you're good to go. Just monitor your symptoms.

 

[Matt N]

It may well be Omicron - they do not genomically sequence every PCR. Either way, I don't think you have to isolate anyway now if you are jabbed.

Daily LFTs and you're good to go. Just monitor your symptoms.

I’m triple jabbed (got my 3rd dose on 8th December) and currently have no symptoms, so I should be OK doing LFTs, right?

 

[AstroDan]

I’m triple jabbed (got my 3rd dose on 8th December) and currently have no symptoms, so I should be OK doing LFTs, right?

Yes - daily LFTs is sufficient.

 

[GaryH]

I don’t think compliance with any new lockdown over Christmas will be adhered to very well. Not this year. And not after Boris little Xmas party. I for one intend to spend time with my family this year (will test first) and off Boris thinks he is going to stop me then he can go do one.

 

[Danza91]

Zero chance of our family cancelling our plans, even more so after the last few months we (personally) have had. Life is too short and everyone except me (got to wait until first week of Jan) is tripled-jabbed. Looking forward to my dinner.

 

[John C]

@Matt N I don't think we'll get another General Election for at least 3 years for that very reason. They know their position is weaker now than it was 2 years ago and unlike the last 2 elections there's no gain to holding another one early.

At this stage it also seems pointless to call a lockdown. I wouldn't be surprised if less than 50% of the population actually followed it. The Christmas lockdown last year was a mess as everyone scrambled to change plans at the last minute. This year we were told a decision would be made by the 18th (correct me if I'm wrong). That date has passed with plenty of reasons to justify a lockdown being available. Yet we heard nothing. To call one now would do nothing but outrage most the population. The reason for the lockdown would be completely lost and people will break rules purely in defiance. Not a good outcome for anyone.

Actually, the next general election is coming sooner than we might think. I believe under the fixed term parliament act the next one is currently scheduled for 2 May 2024 which is not much more than two years away.

 

[Matt N]

First LFT done; negative as a big bag of negative things!

While I’m not counting my chickens just yet, it would appear that I could have avoided COVID this time…

 

[Dave]

The thing that concerns me is that Boris may be a little bit 'unstable' and given that he knows he is pretty much dead and buried now or getting very close to it, he may decide to impose a lockdown out of spite. Take as many people down with him as he can. Given the latest photographs to be released from May last year being leaked yesterday, I'm expecting a press conference this evening with more restrictions in an effort to divert attention away from him again.

In terms of compliance, if you have to sit outside in pubs etc who is going to want to go out? Most people will mix indoors at peoples homes instead regardless of if they are allowed to or not. Why should we follow the rules if those who we trust and elect to govern our country can't?

The power of the prime minister is quite limited, government convention is that cabinet must agree on any action (at minimum with a majority) and if they don’t then in general the PM is scuppered. I doubt Johnson will go so far without his ministers support.

Couldn’t one technically happen through a vote of no confidence in the government? I thought the government losing a VONC automatically resulted in a general election?

Theresa May narrowly survived one of those, as well as multiple against her leadership, and rightly or wrongly, there seems to be a lot more deep-seated anger towards Boris and co right now than there ever was towards Theresa May based on what I gauge from the public mood, as well as the general mood in parliament.

I actually feel that a VONC may be how our next prime minister and/or our next general election come about based on the way things are going. I wouldn’t have said that a year ago, but public mood, as well as parliamentary mood, towards Boris Johnson seems to have turned drastically as of late.

There will not be a VONC in Parliament to trigger a GE, the tories have a huge majority. What will happen is the MP’s will trigger a leadership challenge and replace Johnson but this doesn’t trigger a general election as it’s a party matter not a parliamentary one (in my opinion changing the PM should trigger a GE but technically speaking we don’t elect the PM, the queen appoints them.

 

[Matt N]

I forgot to tell you guys something that I learned the other day that really embarrassed me…

Basically, I started getting different lateral flow tests from university a couple of months back (not by choice, I was just given different boxes; I now get given FlowFlex instead of the NHS-branded ones), and when I first got them out of the box, I noticed that the swabs were oddly short compared to any LFT I’d used before… they were far more difficult to get into my mouth to swab my throat with than the previous ones. (On the NHS-branded ones, I was always told to swab both my throat and nose)

However, when my sister had COVID symptoms the other day and wanted to use one of my LFTs, she read the instructions to mine as she hadn’t done an LFT for a while… and I discovered that you’re only supposed to swab your nose with these new ones. Which explains why they’re so short…

I feel very stupid having been sticking these swabs down my throat with great difficulty for weeks… trust me, it was easier said than done!

 

[Alsty]

It does say to read the instructions carefully as it may be different to the tests you've used before

 

[GaryH]

Don’t feel stupid. I read a post from a Dr on Twitter about a week ago where he was saying he tested negative on a LFT by swobbing his nose even though he had symptoms. He did another LFT immediately after but swobbed his throat and tested positive. PCR was positive.