In terms of what would work, if AT stays under Merlin's ownership (I don't think they want it to and could live happily without) then the best solution would be to see the park as separate from the others. AT is a very different park from the others, it requires a different strategy and a different operating model.
I think Alton is unquestionably important to Merlin, if it needs a different operating model, then I think Merlin can respond to that.
Not only that, the prospect of someone else operating Alton would be extremely worrying for Merlin because it would fundamentally change the way they operate in the UK due to the integration of the nationwide product via MAP. The value proposition that Merlin put forward with MAP would be very much lacking for anyone north of Birmingham without Alton Towers in the portfolio.
This Feb half term thing highlights this. Much smaller parks are doing this so there must be something in it for them. In a black and white board meeting it could easily be argued that there's no point in opening Feb half term as it barely breaks even.
It comes down to a few things. If a smaller park has a smaller cost base, it's a far more workable option and the risks are lower. The sheer number of people required to make Alton tick for the day is vast. Another key factor is the number of guests who visit with a Merlin Annual Pass and don't spend anything. Attendance is a pointless metric when trying to measure success, it's all about per cap spending and contribution to the bottom line.
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But should people expect some sort of proper event from the biggest and Theme Park in the country?
People can expect what they want, if it hardly makes money in the format that has been used, they can choose not to run one. It also makes staffing, maintenance and pre-season work infinitely more straightforward. The only reason it causes Merlin a problem (if profit is flat/minimal) is if people opt not to purchase a MAP on the back of it, but I honestly don't think that's the case.
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Is there a market for it, it just needs the right kind of event?
I'd argue that's what they have done. The event with the park is risky and not particularly profitable. The hotel based event is far less risky and can contribute the same or more to the bottom line.
You have to create a compelling proposition whereby you can get enough people to come out to the park in February (it was minus 6 when I left the house this morning). Those people ideally won't all be MAP holders, will want to stay over in a hotel (so the proposition has to be
very compelling) - but not so compelling that they decide they don't need to return later in the season, therefore spreading your attendance over more operating days.