With regards to the bolded, I’d be intrigued to know; do you think Alton was headed this way pre-COVID, or do you think that COVID caused this?
In terms of whether or not things come, I’d guess that investment into the parks won’t stop entirely even if it slows for a year or two. Personally, I’d guess that the parks will be able to let in regular crowd levels once again come 2022 or so, so giving them a year or two to rebuild their cash reserves, I’d say something major could come by around 2024/2025, maybe 2023 at a push? I know that parks can’t currently increase their attendance in the short to medium term due to restrictions, but I’d personally argue that investment is important for maintaining the guest figures you have as much as anything else; major new things keep current guests coming back as much as they attract new guests in.
I don’t think it’s necessarily a given that parks will slash investment, however; I know that SeaWorld, for example, have said that while 2021 will be a quiet year, they intend to return to business as usual from 2022 onwards. Europa Park is still planning to build quite a few major new rides and areas within the next 5 years or so, which they could quite easily have cancelled had they wanted to. Futuroscope announced a huge, expensive master plan for the next 5-10 years well after COVID was a thing, and I know that another park did, as well. Investments are not necessarily grounded completely due to COVID; some parks are still firing on all cylinders.
It’s also worth noting that Merlin is now a private company; private ownership usually tends to mean that things are built with a longer term aim in mind as opposed to merely a short term return, so they may well take a different attitude to investment to what they did when they were public. They are also shielded to a degree from things like stock market crashes for this same reason.
I’m not necessarily doubting you, as you seem to have insider knowledge, but I just think that it’s a little too hasty to declare investment into Towers done for, personally.