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Russia vs NATO

Yes @GaryH for once I agree with you, what's been revealed is awful, war crimes had already been committed however this is Nazi level.

I understand the difficulties with getting the Ukrainian's jets but hopefully we can get them at least a few of Poland. Tanks will also help them no end, hopefully we send more.

In terms of whether NATO gets involved with the fighting, I don't think we will yet. I hope we don't have to but we cannot let geniocide take place.

My personal opinion on the next moves are that Putin will take the Dombass (all of it) and secure a land bridge between Dombass and Crimea, he will then take a little more territory and use that as a negotiating chip. I think that's the best case scenario and what I'd do in Putin's position however we know he's gone round the twist so who knows what this mad-man war criminal will do next.
 
Rumour is he is looking for some kind of victory ready for the parades in Russia when they defeated the Nazis on May 9th.

The whole talk of Nazis i find extremely disturbing. It’s almost as if he is referring to the west as the Nazis. Poland today issued guidance to its population about what to do in the event of war, including stockpiling food and medicines which I thought was (1) a bit stupid because it will cause panic and (2) interesting because do they think something might happen.
 
I feel like with Russia moving its concentration towards the east of Ukraine, we have moved further away from a NATO vs Russia war (for now).

I can't say I'm surprised with the civilian killings. They are shocking but I'm not surprised. I'm sure the bucha massacre is only a small part of a much larger story.

JAperson said:
My personal opinion on the next moves are that Putin will take the Dombass (all of it) and secure a land bridge between Dombass and Crimea, he will then take a little more territory and use that as a negotiating chip. I think that's the best case scenario and what I'd do in Putin's position however we know he's gone round the twist so who knows what this mad-man war criminal will do next.
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I feel given the intentional aim was to control the entire of Ukraine, Putin will go ahead with this. I guess it's a question of will that happen after the east is in his hands, or will Russia initially claim the east take over as a victory, and plan another attack in the future.
 
I agree with @James. I actually think that recent developments have made a full-on world war with NATO involvement less likely than it was a few weeks ago, at least in the short term.

Now I’m no expert on this like some of you seemingly are, but to me, Russia’s decision to scale back their military operation to only cover the east of Ukraine was the most telling sign yet that the invasion has backfired on Russia quite considerably, and the outcome has been far worse than originally predicted for them. And given that this operation is against Ukraine, a country who in theory have relatively minimal military power compared to Russia or any NATO country, I’d be surprised if Putin would want to pursue a larger-scale war with the full weight of NATO against him at this point in time.

Russia scaling back also means that the chances of NATO being dragged into the conflict unintentionally have been lowered; now that the western side of the country is supposedly no longer being targeted by Russia, that puts the border of any NATO country much further away from the conflict than it had been before, therefore meaning that the chances of an off-target missile accidentally landing in a NATO country, for instance, are now lower.
 
Although Russia has physically moved away from Poland - in effect by NATO sending more advanced weapons including now tanks, NATO is becoming more confrontational with Russia. Tanks are not defensive weapons for example. What’s the difference between tanks and mig jets?

Thousands of Russian soldiers are being killed by NATO weapons. So the danger here is not so much a confrontation on the border with a NATO country but at what point does Russia say enough is enough in terms of the weapons being supplied to Ukraine.

On a separate note it does concern me as Russia has highlighted, these weapons being sent to Ukraine and falling in to the wrong hands. Russian troops capturing a star streak anti aircraft weapon for example may be tempted to sell it to their mates over in the Middle East who in turn learn its technology but also use it to spot down a commercial airliner.

I don’t think Biden comments have been useful either and quite a few times the White House have had to back track. No matter what he thinks of Putin the only way this will get resolved is by talking, and it’s going to be very difficult for the US to talk to Russia given the comments he has made.

It’s all a bit of a mess!
 
The US doesn't have to talk to Russia at all, the war is between Russia and Ukraine.
Tanks are defensive weapons if they stay in their own territory.
The majority of opinion in the big papers shows hope and the likely development of a "zone of contention" in the east of the country, though what happens next with Putin, lord only knows.
 
To resolve this the West (led by the US) will absolutely have to talk with Russia. Ultimately talks will need to discuss security assurances for Ukraine, easing of sanctions, future relationship with Russia particularly on nuclear weapons and NATO, amongst other things. So at some point yes I do believe the west and the US will need to talk with Russia.
 
As atrocious as recent stuff is. Calling it Nazi level is a bit over the top.

The Nazis brutally and efficiently murdered close to 6 million people.

You have to remember, the USA and UK, have committed some pretty horrific acts in wartime in the past 20 years. All laid bare when hundreds of thousands of official documents were leaked onto Wikileaks about a decade ago. In some respects, as bad as what Putin is doing now.

Huge amounts of recorded civilians killed, massive breaches of human rights. Officially recorded civilian deaths by the UK and the US in the Iraq war, puts the figure around the 100,000 mark. But since the leaks, more detailed studies have been carried out, which estimate we killed atleast a quarter of a million innocent civilians. Truly awful.

What made it worse was that there were also plenty of other documents leaked and even videos from helicopters, showing the US and the UK slaughtering unarmed people on many occasions.

I do not condone war or violence at all. What I do find fascinating though, is how quick people call out other people, or regimes for doing exactly what we have done in the past two decades. But seemingly it being ok when these acts are committed by our own country and allies.
 
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@DistortAMG absolutely hit the nail on the head but to me, with a significant distinction.

With regards civilian deaths, in the west they call is “collateral damage”. Not to mention the legacy left in countries like Vietnam and the after affects of agent orange or the depleted uranium used in ammunitions in Iraq which has caused deaths even after the troops have left.

The term Nazis like you I find extremely disturbing increasingly so the way the Russian government brand it around as if they are not only trying to rid Ukraine of Nazis but also the world. The very Z symbol has become almost like the new Nazi logo for Russia and by acts of exterminating the population is no different to what the Nazis did in Auchwitz.

And there I think lies the distinction. Yes the west we have killed civilians in air strikes and left behind a poisoned legacy, whereas the Russians are not only killing in air strikes but also purposely going around in death squads raping and killing innocent people and are actually being the Nazis.

The west is no innocent, especially the U.K. who still sells arms to Saudi to use against civilians in Yemen. It’s very sad that two world wars have still not taught us anything and human nature is still to be cruel to each other. I just hope for the people of Ukraine this war ends soon for them.
 
GaryH said:
@DistortAMG absolutely hit the nail on the head but to me, with a significant distinction.

With regards civilian deaths, in the west they call is “collateral damage”. Not to mention the legacy left in countries like Vietnam and the after affects of agent orange or the depleted uranium used in ammunitions in Iraq which has caused deaths even after the troops have left.

The term Nazis like you I find extremely disturbing increasingly so the way the Russian government brand it around as if they are not only trying to rid Ukraine of Nazis but also the world. The very Z symbol has become almost like the new Nazi logo for Russia and by acts of exterminating the population is no different to what the Nazis did in Auchwitz.

And there I think lies the distinction. Yes the west we have killed civilians in air strikes and left behind a poisoned legacy, whereas the Russians are not only killing in air strikes but also purposely going around in death squads raping and killing innocent people and are actually being the Nazis.

The west is no innocent, especially the U.K. who still sells arms to Saudi to use against civilians in Yemen. It’s very sad that two world wars have still not taught us anything and human nature is still to be cruel to each other. I just hope for the people of Ukraine this war ends soon for them.
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I disagree with the distinction somewhat. We (the allied forces, not me specifically) were hovering in Apache helicopters, identifying "targets", identifying that they were unarmed, then opening up the helicopters mini guns. There were videos leaked showing that many times. This is just the stuff we know about.

That is not an airstrike, that is doing exactly what the Russians are doing by going round in death squads. Just these death squads were in Apache choppers, very different from air strikes. They also did plenty of air strikes however. On heavily populated areas in cities and towns being some targets. Again, all revealed when the huge bounty of leaks hit the world wide web.

The Nazis killed people because they wanted specific religions and whatnot wiped out, irrelevant of nationality. As bad as going round killing innocent people in a war is. The Russians are killing people of a nation they are at war with. Very, VERY different things. I'll say it again, it is nothing like Nazis or their modus operandi. In my opinion atleast.

As for other distinctions, People within the USA's and our armed forces have at times, in peace time, on homeland, struggled to not rape people within their own armed forces. There have been some notable cases. While these could be isolated. I find it difficult to believe that we haven't also committed such acts in wartime. Especially given the high testosterone, and souped up ego mentality the armed forces drill and train into their soldiers. As these are qualities that are needed for a soldier to be an effective soldier. Point being, I do not think such acts are isolated to Russian forces historically.
 
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Indeed, the attrocities and unprovoked wars the west have waged are frequently referenced by Putin to excuse his invasion. He'll point out the illegal invasion of Iraq, the abuse and torture of prisoners, the Azov regiment merging into Ukraine's national guard, the ever encroaching NATO boarders towards the east. Not a single 1 of these is a valid reason for his land grab invasion and his crimes, but not a single 1 of these is untrue either. You can see how easy it is to take these facts, throw a load of exaggerations and lies in for good measure and then pump it out on state controlled media. Sometimes to beat an enemy you need to understand where it's coming from and the US in particular fails to understand this time and time again.

He's an evil man, the war crimes are despicable and he has no right to invade like he has. But this could all have been prevented years ago. Putin plays the west like a fiddle, yet other than the odd sanction and finger wagging here and there (something which I think he relishes), we've all been happy to buy his oil and gas whilst he's been sending hitmen out round the world to murder people on our on soil, shut down Russian democracy, interfered with our own democracies and invaded neighbouring countries.

I'm very uncomfortable with the comparisons to the Nazi's though. Even national newspapers have been doing this. That's not to say that his regime is anything but appalling and that this situation is anything but extremely serious, but I don't think it can be played down just how evil the Nazi's where. We can't call every murderous brutal dictator who invades another country a Nazi.
 
I need to clarify something I said earlier in this thread. When saying what we are seeing was on nazi level I was referring to the tactics being used rather than the scale.
It was a comment made as my initial reaction to what I was seeing, which is horrific, but realistically my comparison was both unfair and unjustified,
I should've made myself clearer and for that I apologise.
 
JAperson said:
I need to clarify something I said earlier in this thread. When saying what we are seeing was on nazi level I was referring to the tactics being used rather than the scale.
It was a comment made as my initial reaction to what I was seeing, which is horrific, but realistically my comparison was both unfair and unjustified,
I should've made myself clearer and for that I apologise.
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No need to apologise mate, I wasnt personally saying it about you. As Matt points out, news papers and plenty of others are making these comparisons.

There is nothing unjust or even offensive in my opinion about making those comparisons. It does show a clear underestimation and misunderstanding on the part of the people making the comparison, of how truly evil and wide scale Nazi operations were.

In a way I can understand that, it was nearly 100 years ago and not everyone is going to be well versed in that history. But on the flip side, it is well researched and documented at this point.
 
DistortAMG said:
No need to apologise mate, I wasnt personally saying it about you. As Matt points out, news papers and plenty of others are making these comparisons.

There is nothing unjust or even offensive in my opinion about making those comparisons. It does show a clear underestimation and misunderstanding on the part of the people making the comparison, of how truly evil and wide scale Nazi operations were.

In a way I can understand that, it was nearly 100 years ago and not everyone is going to be well versed in that history. But on the flip side, it is well researched and documented at this point.
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History is one of my biggest interests and particularly the second world war. I shouldn've made the comparison on here, I was having a bad day yesterday and my judgment was somewhat clouded.

I agree about the media although I'd expect nothing less of a good portion of the media in this country who are a best dodgy. Most people know a good chunk about the second world war and the comparisons being made are wrong, what Russia is doing is evil and Putin and his mates should face trail. But what happened during the second world war is very different and in a completely different time, making the proposal pretty pointless.

In terms of a possible war crimes trail, I don't think it will happen though. The likelihood is Putin's regime will end with his death, whether that's assassination, his current status as president of Russia will prevent him from standing a legally binding trial of any form. I want him to be trailed and I hope I'm proven wrong but I think it's unlikely.
 
One thing I’ll admit I now find slightly disconcerting… why is Boris doing a press conference on the Ukraine war this evening? Is he going to announce to the nation that we’re entering war with Russia?

I sincerely hope not…
 
Matt N said:
One thing I’ll admit I now find slightly disconcerting… why is Boris doing a press conference on the Ukraine war this evening? Is he going to announce to the nation that we’re entering war with Russia?

I sincerely hope not…
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No, it will be about what military aid we are sending and about dismissing Russia from the Human rights council.
 
In a potentially promising development, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that no Russian troops remain in northern Ukraine, with them all having retreated to either Belarus or Russia: https://apple.news/AlE8Drc-HTbyz8R2dUn20_A

Could we be reaching a point where the Russian troops’ morale may stop them from wanting to fight anymore?
 
Matt N said:
In a potentially promising development, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that no Russian troops remain in northern Ukraine, with them all having retreated to either Belarus or Russia: https://apple.news/AlE8Drc-HTbyz8R2dUn20_A

Could we be reaching a point where the Russian troops’ morale may stop them from wanting to fight anymore?
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It's a key development in the war and probably represents the change of direction for the Russian troops to just take the Dombass region. I do think Putin eventually wants Odessa though which he may well try and take later once he has secured his hold on the Dombass and he's got some freshly armed troops. Logistics really are the Russian's downfall however I am worried that they may now play a larger part on the Ukrainian side. They were previously getting supplies from Poland to Kyiv now they've got to get them even further. They've got a challenge to stop the Russian's gaining full control of the Dombass but hopefully they can manage it.
 
He's after region's where a large proportion of the residents are Russian passport holders. This is in the east and the south east, not so much in the North. This is probably a retreat in terms of his ambitions, but I expect this will be a long term entrenchment scenario where these regions will be disputed and fought over for many years, if not decades.

And to answer an earlier point, not in a million years will a British Prime Minister make a unilateral decision to declare war on Russia - I can't even think of a single plausible scenario in which this could ever possibly happen. Even if they fired rockets into Poland the whole NATO alliance would still be scratching their heads about what to do about it, despite all the Billy Big Balls talk you hear them spout.
 
Matt N said:
In a potentially promising development, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that no Russian troops remain in northern Ukraine, with them all having retreated to either Belarus or Russia: https://apple.news/AlE8Drc-HTbyz8R2dUn20_A

Could we be reaching a point where the Russian troops’ morale may stop them from wanting to fight anymore?
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If troops morale gets to the stage when they don't want to fight any more, the senior officers tend to start shooting their own troops for desertion or dereliction of duty, with little recrimination under law.
Frontline troops are poor young conscripts...literally cannon fodder.
They have no choice in fighting, they do as they are told, or will get shot, no question.
Putin's dual attacks on the area...don't forget Crimea, was always about pushing the boundary between east and west, which he has succeeded in.
 
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