The Brexit Thread

[Matt N]

From the BBC website about our food prices at the moment:

Why food bills aren't shrinking - five things to know

Prices in the shops remain much higher than a year ago, despite falls in energy and food costs.

www.bbc.co.uk

4. Prices may be lower than in the rest of Europe

With Brexit adding to the red tape of importing food, are we paying more for our food than shoppers in the EU?
A study by economist Michael Saunders for research body Oxford Economics says not.

Looking at a range of food and drink, he says UK prices are typically 7% below the EU average - with bread, meat and fish in particular relatively cheap. He says the UK's competitive supermarket sector plays a role in keeping prices down.

By contrast, he says that prior to 2015, on average groceries were more expensive in the UK than in the EU - partly reflecting the relatively small influence of the lower cost retailers such as Aldi and Lidl at that point.

That is interesting, but it also says in the article about how low cost retailers like Aldi and Lidl didn’t really gain influence in the UK until after Brexit, and I wouldn’t be certain that the increase in these companies’ influence was even related to Brexit.

Surely these low cost retailers would still have gained influence even without Brexit, thus meaning that the price decrease would still have happened?

 

[BarryZola]

When we're well clear of a global pandemic and a war in Ukraine skewing trade and commodity prices we can start to look at the economic pro's and con's of Brexit. Whether you think it's good or bad, it's simply not been a fair test so far under these circumstances. I'm really not interested that a couple of other similar economies are judged to have had half a percent better GDP growth either at some point during the last few years. There are nuances as to how particular shortages effect different economies due to historical ways that they are run etc and different countries had different responses to handling Covid. I know that people can't wait to bash Brexit at every turn but at least wait until it has been a fair test.

 

[JAperson]

That is interesting, but it also says in the article about how low cost retailers like Aldi and Lidl didn’t really gain influence in the UK until after Brexit. Had these low cost retailers gained influence while we were still in the EU, surely the price decrease would still have happened?

Exactly, the UK supermarket industry is incredibly competitive, there's so many different retailers and different loyalty schemes.

When we're well clear of a global pandemic and a war in Ukraine skewing trade and commodity prices we can start to look at the economic pro's and con's of Brexit. Whether you think it's good or bad, it's simply not been a fair test so far under these circumstances. I'm really not interested that a couple of other similar economies are judged to have had half a percent better GDP growth either at some point during the last few years. There are nuances as to how particular shortages effect different ecomomies due to historical ways that they are run etc and different countries had different responses to handling Covid. I know that people can't wait to bash Brexit at every turn but at least wait until it has been a fair test.

Would be relevant if all economic models who that brexit was and is not going well for the UK economy. I agree that the war in Ukraine and the pandemic have had massive effects on the economy but you can compare our economic growth compared to other European countries, we aren't doing as well? If that's not Brexit then what is it?

 

[BarryZola]

Just that the country is generally a bit crap and getting crapper anyway? Manufacturing has been going down the toilet for decades now and foreign companies own pretty much everything over here nowadays. The place is just a massive toilet these days.

 

[JAperson]

Just that the country is generally a bit crap and getting crapper anyway? Manufacturing has been going down the toilet for decades now and foreign companies own pretty much everything over here nowadays. The place is just a massive toilet these days.

Right but when EU funding was propping up lots of our industries and certain area's (like Cornwall), it doesn't help that we've lost the last protection of these, and surely that can't help?

 

[BarryZola]

Swings and roundabouts. There will be areas/industries that lose out and in others there will be gains, over time, in normal circumstances. I'd love to continue talking about it but I have to be up for work at 5.13 a.m.

 

[jon81uk]

So 44% of people think it wasn't wrong? That's not much movement from the original vote and quite surprising really. People on the whole then think its not so bad...

On the graph it’s 31% wasn’t wrong and 14% don’t know.

 

[Tom]

Actually the war is a perfect example of why moving away from alignment with Europe is a strategically bad idea. Hence why the anti EU rhetoric has been virtually dropped since the invasion, even from Johnson when he was still PM.

Brexit was highly desirable to Putin and the Russian government. People need only ask themselves why.

 

[IanB]

With Brexit adding to the red tape of importing food, are we paying more for our food than shoppers in the EU?
A study by economist Michael Saunders for research body Oxford Economics says not.

I am confused by this, because I am sure I read the UK farmers were complaining recently about all the extra red tape they have to go through when exporting food from the UK, which the UK government keeps delaying for EU imports, putting the UK industry at a disadvantage.

I think the UK food exports to EU had halved, so maybe they are struggling to sell abroad and having to reduce prices to sell in the UK.

Brexit has not worked out for most people in this country, there may a few that have benefited personally, but overall it has been a massive negative. Seven wasted years of trying to figure out what Brexit should be, and it will probably take another 7 years to get everything sorted out, if that. Think what issues and challenges the government could of been tackling if it had not been wasting its time on Brexit.

Another example of Brexit wasting money that could be going else where is the requirement for food going to Northern Ireland to have a label on it that says "Not for the EU" on it, which the government is going to help cover the cost of. Government money which could be going to the NHS or social services.

Before Brexit, Britain used to be able to tell companies invest in us, and we are your gateway in to the rest of Europe, UK Business are now having to spend money in setting up a business in the EU, with Germany being one of the biggest benefices from this, for example the Fraser group is investing £300 million in setting up a new distribution center in Germany. How many additional jobs could that have been in the UK?

Immigration is at its highest level, or that is what the figures are likely to tell us when they are released in a few weeks. Its all good for minsters to say we can teach people how to pick fruit, but if people in the UK dont want to do it, you still need to get someone to do it.

Travelling in Europe is more of a pain now, with additional checks at passport control causing delays due to the facilities not been setup to handle the additional checks, how Dover and Folkstone will cope when the new biometric checks, I dread to think.

Its all good and well to say Covid, and the War in Ukraine are preventing the benefits from being seen, or are the reason why the country is performing less well compared to others, but all these other countries have the same challenges and issues.

Even Nigel Farage has said "Brexit has failed"

 

[Dave]

From the BBC website about our food prices at the moment:

Why food bills aren't shrinking - five things to know

Prices in the shops remain much higher than a year ago, despite falls in energy and food costs.

www.bbc.co.uk

4. Prices may be lower than in the rest of Europe

With Brexit adding to the red tape of importing food, are we paying more for our food than shoppers in the EU?
A study by economist Michael Saunders for research body Oxford Economics says not.

Looking at a range of food and drink, he says UK prices are typically 7% below the EU average - with bread, meat and fish in particular relatively cheap. He says the UK's competitive supermarket sector plays a role in keeping prices down.

By contrast, he says that prior to 2015, on average groceries were more expensive in the UK than in the EU - partly reflecting the relatively small influence of the lower cost retailers such as Aldi and Lidl at that point.

You have completely mis-read the entirety of that really.

The question that section poses is “has the extra border controls increased prices for food in the UK?”

The researcher themselves states that it isn’t the case and also states why…. Because the UK has a more competitive grocery store market than a lot of European countries (which is true but has nothing to do with the EU as the EU doesn’t set rules on national shop homogeneity).

The researcher also states why the price difference has occurred since 2015 (bear in mind we didn’t leave the EU until 2020), and that is the introduction of Aldi and Lidl to the UK market.

So it didn’t say anything like what you hoped it said.

Anyway if you want an impact of brexit, my hospital has for the 3rd week in a row had to cancel cancer scans as the radioactive source for the scans got stuck at the border….

 

[Dave]

When we're well clear of a global pandemic and a war in Ukraine skewing trade and commodity prices we can start to look at the economic pro's and con's of Brexit. Whether you think it's good or bad, it's simply not been a fair test so far under these circumstances. I'm really not interested that a couple of other similar economies are judged to have had half a percent better GDP growth either at some point during the last few years. There are nuances as to how particular shortages effect different economies due to historical ways that they are run etc and different countries had different responses to handling Covid. I know that people can't wait to bash Brexit at every turn but at least wait until it has been a fair test.

Sorry I know I’m double posting but this is not a logical conclusion.

When experts say that brexit is having a negative impact on the UK they are comparing how we are coping against all the other countries in the EU.

And this is a fair test as the war in Ukraine and Covid are both INTERNATIONAL events so impact EVERYONE.

The uk is comparatively performing worse on a lot of measures than the EU and other countries. Investment had dried up, the financial sector is shrinking, manufacturing is moving to the EU.

If this was caused by the war or covid then why isn’t happening elsewhere? Or did I miss the bit where covid only impacted China and the UK?

 

[rob666]

Forecasts by the IMF about a UK recession were wrong.
No recession.
There would be a massive collapse in the value of the pound against the dollar and Euro...nope.
Growth in the UK is now forecast to be better than Germany, and is already ahead of Germany.
Some countries suffered on a far greater scale than the UK with covid...it did not hit all nations equally, not all nations had western infrastructure, so a far greater proportion of the population suffered in poorer nations.
France and Germany now call the shots in Europe, which is far from united, because they are the main overall net financial supporters of the European state.
The European Union is no panacea for our current position regarding war.

 

[BarryZola]

Sorry I know I’m double posting but this is not a logical conclusion.

When experts say that brexit is having a negative impact on the UK they are comparing how we are coping against all the other countries in the EU.

And this is a fair test as the war in Ukraine and Covid are both INTERNATIONAL events so impact EVERYONE.

The uk is comparatively performing worse on a lot of measures than the EU and other countries. Investment had dried up, the financial sector is shrinking, manufacturing is moving to the EU.

If this was caused by the war or covid then why isn’t happening elsewhere? Or did I miss the bit where covid only impacted China and the UK?

We're performing worse than certain countries on certain measures under a scenario of a pandemic and a war in Europe. Those aren't normal conditions. Who's to say we don't thrive under 'normal circumstances'? I'm not saying that we will, I'm simply saying that no one can conclusively say that we won't because that scenario hasn't been tested yet. What I'm saying is quite simple. And then we have to ask ourselves other questions like were major companies already pulling investment from the UK and setting up plants in cheaper (labour) countries in Europe and Asia before Brexit? My answer to that is yes, as that is what has generally been happening anyway even way before Cameron stood up and declared that he would give the country a referendum on a possible Brexit.

 

[Dave]

Forecasts by the IMF about a UK recession were wrong.
No recession.
There would be a massive collapse in the value of the pound against the dollar and Euro...nope.
Growth in the UK is now forecast to be better than Germany, and is already ahead of Germany.
Some countries suffered on a far greater scale than the UK with covid...it did not hit all nations equally, not all nations had western infrastructure, so a far greater proportion of the population suffered in poorer nations.
France and Germany now call the shots in Europe, which is far from united, because they are the main overall net financial supporters of the European state.
The European Union is no panacea for our current position regarding war.

The IMF forecasts are forecasts, like the weather they can never be 100% correct as you are using complex modelling. People (including those against brexit) obsess over the IMF forecast too much, (plus the whole point is the IMF makes a forecast and the country then makes changes to adjust against the forecast and improve the economy).

Covid and the war have the same base impact equally. The outcomes are different because the structure and response were different in each country. Indeed western countries faired better in covid, but western countries didn’t get a weaker virus, it’s systems could just cope better but that’s measurable and can be modelled when working out the impact of brexit.

Also you can’t just focus on one country in the EU when looking at the benefit/ negative of the organisation. Germany is highly dependant on manufacturing which is still been impacted by the chip shortage. That said it’s growth is not worse than the uk if you are modelling across the covid impact, as although the UK has had higher growth in 2021/22 it had a far higher contraction than Germany over covid (we lost 11.33% of GDP in 2020, Germany lost 3.69% so we had a bigger recovery requirement).

We're performing worse than certain countries on certain measures under a scenario of a pandemic and a war in Europe. Those aren't normal conditions. Who's to say we don't thrive under 'normal circumstances'? I'm not saying that we will, I'm simply saying that no one can conclusively say that we won't because that scenario hasn't been tested yet. What I'm saying is quite simple. And then we have to ask ourselves other questions like were major companies already pulling investment from the UK and setting up plants in cheaper (labour) countries in Europe and Asia before Brexit? My answer to that is yes, as that is what has generally been happening anyway even way before Cameron stood up and declared that he would give the country a referendum on a possible Brexit.

The economists predictions around brexit have so far been pretty accurate so I think you will be disappointed. Now if Labour win the next election I expect things will improve as they will be less ideologically against good trade with the EU as they are less moronic than the brexit toting Tory’s but that’s not a great comfort.

And the investment diverted from the UK since brexit is mostly going to France and Germany so not exactly poor countries. Financial services are moving to Frankfurt and New York so again not exactly low paid economies for the most part.

 

[AstroDan]

To hell with Brexit.

*bashes it with more might than ever*

 

[AstroDan]

Interesting development at Gare du Nord today, as I watched EU passport holders bypass the Non-EU lane. For the first time post-Brexit, the lady was flicking through my entire passport. What amused me though, was that I've come and gone from the EU seven or eight times now since thr stamps were a thing. She really did struggle to work out whether I'd outstayed my legal period due to the sheer quantity of stamps.

Either way, once ETIAS comes in, this burden will at least reduce. But it didn't stop me saying the classic '**** Brexit' as the stamp hit the paper.

 

[Alsty]

They don't even seem to put the stamps in any logical place to make their jobs easier. I'm not sure what the rules are but wouldn't it make sense to put them sequentially? They even stamped my entry and exit on different pages this time.

 

[JAperson]

Interesting development at Gare du Nord today, as I watched EU passport holders bypass the Non-EU lane. For the first time post-Brexit, the lady was flicking through my entire passport. What amused me though, was that I've come and gone from the EU seven or eight times now since thr stamps were a thing. She really did struggle to work out whether I'd outstayed my legal period due to the sheer quantity of stamps.

Either way, once ETIAS comes in, this burden will at least reduce. But it didn't stop me saying the classic '**** Brexit' as the stamp hit the paper.

They shouldn't need ETIAS to know how long you've stayed without looking at stamps. The technology exits already in our passports to know how long we've stayed. They know how many UK tourists visit the EU, so realistically they should have already updated there computer system to be able to do this. ETIAS shouldn't need to exist.

They don't even seem to put the stamps in any logical place to make their jobs easier. I'm not sure what the rules are but wouldn't it make sense to put them sequentially? They even stamped my entry and exit on different pages this time.

This is a continues problem, I could understand when we first left the EU and it was all new but now they really should be putting exit/entry stamps near each other on of subsequent pages.

We really need to agree some kind of info sharing thing with the EU with this, there should be no need to ETIAS or a similar system (which is effectively a visa, they they're not calling a visa, when we've already agreeded visa free travel),

 

[Craig]

They shouldn't need ETIAS to know how long you've stayed without looking at stamps. The technology exits already in our passports to know how long we've stayed. They know how many UK tourists visit the EU, so realistically they should have already updated there computer system to be able to do this. ETIAS shouldn't need to exist.

Late reply on this since I've been away, so just catching up. Worth noting that ETIAS is only part of the IT project that the EU need to carry out. EES (entry exit system) is the system which will log border entries and exists to allow tracking of stays electronically across all member states. It's been delayed to allow air travel and process kinks to be ironed out. It was due to launch last month, but has again been delayed until the end of this year. ETIAS is due after EES in 2024, but will work in partnership with that system.

We really need to agree some kind of info sharing thing with the EU with this, there should be no need to ETIAS or a similar system (which is effectively a visa, they they're not calling a visa, when we've already agreeded visa free travel),

Wholly agree on this, and hopefully once EES is up and running and a deal with data sharing is done, e-gates can once again be used by UK passport holders.

 

[Rick]

I've come across quite a few examples at work recently where software vendors aren't providing core products for customers that require data residency in the UK. Historically, we could consume EU services, because we were in the EU and it was really straightforward. Now, not so much - it has to be in the UK and there often isn't a critical mass that means it's financially viable for vendors to provide it, or at least, it isn't prioritised.

That's an example of where what was described as 'red tape' by the Leave campaign was essentially just shared standards that allowed the UK to do the same stuff as the EU and consume services from it and vice versa. How that was perceived to be 'bad' is beyond me.

You have to wonder how the opposite of what I describe above really hurts our trade - the focus is so often on 'us' rather than 'them' ... i.e. An individual or business in the EU wants something that they could buy from another EU nation or the UK. If there is any friction - why bother buying it from the UK.