The Brexit Thread

[Alsty]

It's somewhat disingenuous for Boris Johnson to say he delivered on Brexit. The last I heard the Northern Ireland Protocol was an ongoing headache and the UK government wanted to renegotiate the entire Withdrawal Agreement. That doesn't sound very "delivered" to me.

 

[AstroDan]

It's all the EU's fault. Not Boris'. It's not like his team negotiated it...

 

[Matt N]

It won't for a while - if ever.

Viewpoints are entrenched.

If, in a decade, life in Britain isn't better than life in France, Germany's etc. - I can see another referendum.

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If Britain were to have another referendum (presumably “Stay Out or Rejoin” in this case), do we reckon EU membership would actually win? After Boris’ emphatic election win in 2019, I’m doubtful… if Brexit were to hamper Britain compared to Europe in any significant and tangible way, though, I guess it could have an impact on people’s feelings.

And if EU membership did win and we rejoined the EU, would rejoining the EU be as difficult as exiting the EU was? Or would it simply be a case of “sign some forms and you’re in”?

If we do ever have a referendum on rejoining the EU, I wonder if “Brentry”, “Brenter” or a similar Brexit-style abbreviation will work its way into the British vocabulary…

 

[AstroDan]

If Britain were to have another referendum (presumably “Stay Out or Rejoin” in this case), do we reckon EU membership would actually win? After Boris’ emphatic election win in 2019, I’m doubtful… if Brexit were to hamper Britain compared to Europe in any significant and tangible way, though, I guess it could have an impact on people’s feelings.

And if it did, would rejoining the EU be as difficult as exiting the EU was? Or would it simply be a case of “sign some forms and you’re in”?

It's impossible to have that discussion now, really. There is no chance of a referendum for at least a decade. By then, a lot of the gammon that voted Brexit will be long gone - so who knows.

 

[Alsty]

I can't see the EU allowing the UK to rejoin the EU in the short to mid term, even if we want to. We've burned so many bridges. The reputation the UK has with the EU is at rock bottom. We don't honour the agreements we entered into, we blame them for all the problems rather than owning the ones we created and we still value ideology over rational debate. We're basically troublemakers and we're not welcome.

Even if we change government, how will the EU be satisfied the one after won't kick the whole process off again? Until there's a shift in politics such as proportional representation, a more Europe friendly electorate and the media stop the "us vs them" mindset it won't happen. Remember it only takes one EU Member State to say no and our application is in the bin. They won't forgive and forget easily.

As for a referendum to rejoin, no I don't see it. I think there will instead be more of a gradual shift to align with EU customs union or single market rules to reduce the frictions that Brexit has created, but not rejoining the EU itself.

 

[JAperson]

I disagree slightly with @AstroDan although I agree with the idea. I think the likelihood is they'll be some sort of middle ground. Where we aren't full members of the EU but we are closer than what we are now. Some sort of new trade area similar to that of the EEA or EFTA but slightly different to suite us. Presumably with slightly stricter free movement rights and some trade allowances for us to trade more easily with other countries.
Oviously this would require a referendum but I think on the whole people would vote in favour.
Be aware I'm not really a fan of this idea but I think it's the best and most likely outcome of all this.

 

[Alsty]

Some sort of new trade area similar to that of the EEA or EFTA but slightly different to suite us. Presumably with slightly stricter free movement rights and some trade allowances for us to trade more easily with other countries.

No. That would be cherry picking which the EU has already said is never going to happen.

I think we could get access to the customs union or single market but only if we abide by the conditions of them.

Oviously this would require a referendum but I think on the whole people would vote in favour.

We're a representative democracy. We don't need referendums to do anything.

 

[rob666]

Can't see us going back in without one though...there is history and previous public votes on the issue.

 

[JAperson]

No. That would be cherry picking which the EU has already said is never going to happen.

I think we could get access to the customs union or single market but only if we abide by the conditions of them.

I think you've contradicted yourself there. It is possible with a negotiation like you've said. I think it's likely in about 10 years. Particularly as the EU will also be considerably worse off by then too. Probably not as bad as us but not good either.

 

[Alsty]

I didn't contradict myself. Entering the customs union or single market by following the conditions of them is not cherry picking.

Your suggestion that we could be in the customs union but still allowed to strike other trade deals with other countries, or the single market but without full freedom of movement, most definitely is cherry picking.

 

[JAperson]

I didn't contradict myself. Entering the customs union or single market by following the conditions of them is not cherry picking.

Your suggestion that we could be in the customs union but still allowed to strike other trade deals with other countries, or the single market but without full freedom of movement, most definitely is cherry picking.

Switzerland has a similar agreement (well lots of different agreement) that means they are effectively members of both the customs union and the single market but do have significant freedoms. They can't create standard trade deals but can do certain styles of deals.
Also just because the EU leadership at the time said something doesn't mean 10 years down the line the situation won't be different. The EU's leaders change and so do situations. It would undoubtedly be in both our and the EU's interest to have closer agreements.
There is no reason a custom individual solution can't be negotiated.
Also to add I think an agreement even where we can't do our own trade deals could likely pass a refferendum once people see what effect Brexit has.

 

[WillPS]

Switzerland has the benefit of history, particularly their willingness to work with and support the EU without joining.

Their arrangements were formalised in the early 70s when the EEC was a block of 6 countries (the UK not being one, yet!). They are a member of the Schengen zone and they provide reciprocal freedom of movement to citizens of the EU.

We had a number of grandfathered privileges when we were a member (remaining outside Schengen, various rebates including a contentious one for farmers which reared its head every few years). Those weren't cherry picked but consequences of having been a member for a considerable period of time, during which the EEC had expanded in every imaginable way and transformed in to the EU as we now know it.

The three questions to ask yourself when pondering the possibility of a sweetheart deal

1. What could we offer them which isn't reciprocal freedom of movement?
2. What message would the deal send to other member nations where there is a growing momentum to leave?
3. Would such a deal strengthen or weaken the EU's negotiating ability when it comes to arranging (far more lucrative) international trade deals?

Those factors are the reason we have the deal we have. I honestly think it's more likely that the EU as we know it ceases to be than us somehow getting to a Switzerland style arrangement.

 

[jon81uk]

Yep one of the biggest issues with rejoining would be that we had some of the best terms of membership as Thatcher, Cameron and others had negotiated special privileges for the UK. We would be unlikely to get them back. Also there is the big issue of joining the Euro currency which I think would be expected of new members.

 

[AstroDan]

The loss of freedom of movement is the biggest single loss for me, in terms of the ability to live and/or work in any one of the other member states.

That said, I appreciate the majority of Britons have an issue with freedom of movement and believe it shouldn't be a right. Sadly.

 

[WillPS]

Also there is the big issue of joining the Euro currency which I think would be expected of new members.

That's oft stated but less of a certainty in my opinion. The member states who've joined since the Euro was launched have not taken the currency, that's possibly more because doing so would be problematic for the currency rather than because the member states did not wish to but the point remains.

 

[Matt.GC]

The loss of freedom of movement is the biggest single loss for me, in terms of the ability to live and/or work in any one of the other member states.

That said, I appreciate the majority of Britons have an issue with freedom of movement and believe it shouldn't be a right. Sadly.

I hate the fact that a freedom I've had all of my adult life has now gone and that settling somewhere else in Europe is no longer an option for me. I remember when I left school, I had these dreams of one day moving to another country within the EU. I even started learning French when I was at a personal crossroads in my late 20's until I learnt that I had a pleasant surprise to be born 6 months later. But as a bilingual skilled worker, would you not be able emigrate still anyway?

 

[rob666]

Yup.
Might not be a right to move, but is still an option to apply.
Why on earth is the UK the top (most desirable) place for young people to live according to a G20 survey last week?
Heard about it on R4, but not seen the full details.
Number one spot by young people...allegedly/possibly.

 

[Matt N]

If it’s any reassurance; I get the impression that moving to Europe isn’t impossible, it’s just more difficult in terms of having to gain visas and the like.

Hope that reassures you somewhat @AstroDan and @Matt.GC. The European dream is still possible for you both, if that’s what you want!

 

[JAperson]

This is the issue with re-joining in the current stage however 10 years or longer down the line that might change. The special privileges we had were important as for example the Euro is a dreadful currency that doesn't work for all sorts of reasons.
However I wouldn't say negotionating them again is impossible but I don't think it can be done yet. It would have to be a new generation of politicians who go to the EU explain that we believed the older people made a mistake but that we can't rejoin on standard terms. The EU is a big economic engine however it is considerably smaller now we have left. Having us back in is in both sides interest and so a negotiation might be possible. Anyway I'm holding out hope.
Put it this way I wouldn't be in favour of rejoining if we had to join the Euro or Schengen but if we could opt out I would be in support.

 

[WillPS]

This is the issue with re-joining in the current stage however 10 years or longer down the line that might change. The special privileges we had were important as for example the Euro is a dreadful currency that doesn't work for all sorts of reasons.

That's a rather strong sweeping opinion there which you're stating as fact.

However I wouldn't say negotionating them again is impossible but I don't think it can be done yet. It would have to be a new generation of politicians who go to the EU explain that we believed the older people made a mistake but that we can't rejoin on standard terms. The EU is a big economic engine however it is considerably smaller now we have left. Having us back in is in both sides interest and so a negotiation might be possible. Anyway I'm holding out hope.
Put it this way I wouldn't be in favour of rejoining if we had to join the Euro or Schengen but if we could opt out I would be in support.

I don't think it's impossible that we'll rejoin but I don't think currency or Schengen will be the blocker and I don't think offering the EU the rationale that "the older people made a mistake" is the reassurance they'd need that the UK is committed to ever closer union.

I think it's more likely that the EU as it now stands will cease to be before we're in a position to rejoin it.