The Brexit Thread

Stuie

TS Member
It's somewhat disingenuous for Boris Johnson to say he delivered on Brexit. The last I heard the Northern Ireland Protocol was an ongoing headache and the UK government wanted to renegotiate the entire Withdrawal Agreement. That doesn't sound very "delivered" to me.

It’s not just disingenuous, it’s a complete load of old bullshit! This government get away with a lot of that.
 

Matt N

TS Member
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In fairness, I think it depends on what your definition of “delivering Brexit” is, as I think it’s a somewhat open-ended phrase.

If the phrase is taken to mean “breaking the impasse and getting us out of Europe”, then Johnson could feasibly claim that, as he did negotiate us a deal that was voted through after months of standstill in parliament, and he did get us out of the EU.

If the phrase is taken to mean “resolving the issue of Brexit”, however… whether he’s done that or not is a bit more debatable.
 

Rick

TS Member
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Crux
In fairness, I think it depends on what your definition of “delivering Brexit” is, as I think it’s a somewhat open-ended phrase.
Indeed ... and that was the problem with the referendum in the first place. Millions of people stuck a cross in the same box but had a completely different interpretation of what it actually meant because it was eventually up to a small group of people (some unelected) to determine what the outcome would look like - then taken through parliament as a messy compromise, claimed as a victory.

In some ways it would be easier to re-enter the EU now than it will be in ten years from now, if we continue to diverge.

Would recommend Chief of Staff by Gavin Barwell, Theresa May's chief of staff, fascinating insight.
 

AstroDan

TS Team
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From September 2022, the EU will further secure its external borders - which will affect all of us from third countries travelling to/from the EU by air, rail or sea. This could have serious implications for smooth travel, especially via sea ports or Eurotunnel. Worth a watch:

 

WillPS

TS Member
You see, this is why people who voted remain get annoyed.

We can't do things we could do before and the answer is just to not have it anymore. What can we do now instead that makes these sacrifices worthwhile?
We could axe VAT on domestic gas and electricity...
 

Tim

TS Member
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It's interesting to consider that had the referendum been held now instead of 2016 it probably would have swayed in remains favour even without all the political chaos of the last 6 years.
I know a few people that voted remain then who are sadly not with us anymore. Also most the people I talk to who have gained the right to vote seem to be fairly pro-remaining (although it is possible the last 5 years could have tainted their opinion in that direction).
There was only a 2% swing between remain and leave. Based on the statistics of how the younger vs older generations voted 5 years should easily have been enough to tip that.

I know some make the argument that the Conservatives landslide victory in the last election proves we are still very pro-leaving, but I disagree. At the time of that election we had already committed to leaving and frankly the Conservatives appeared to be the only semi-competant party to actually handle it.
 

Benzin

TS Member
Not a major problem though really is it? They'll either start making an equivalent item in Britain or you could live without it?

Given that said retailer is based in the EU I doubt they'll bother sorting out something for the probably small to them UK market for the cost it would incur to them.

Much like why they're not shipping to the UK in the first place. Astronomical costs and admin work.
 

WillPS

TS Member
I'm about as anti-Brexit as I think it's possible to be, and I've been hugely critical of the Conservative party and their handling of this whole thing.

That being said one has to accept it has now happened. There could be upsides to it but we likely won't know for a decade or more. We're still in the post-adjustment shock phase and all those immediate adjustments are negative.

The time for making the case that it is going to be crap is over. The time for pragmatism and patiently waiting for it to (probably) go badly, while trying to heal the divisions which got us here, is upon us.

So why prioritise trade with Australia instead of our closest neighbours?
Because an Australian trade deal is viable and an EU trade deal which exceeds the one we already have but does not feature reciprocal freedom of movement has been the millstone the conservatives bought upon their own necks for nearly 6 years now.

Bear in mind that there are a maximum of 2 years and 4 months now before the next election. This is traditionally the period in which governments start giving out goodies to sure up their vote and taking whatever low-hanging fruit they can find to make themselves seem effective.
 

Alsty

TS Member
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Shambhala
You might remember last year that the Government were threatening to unilaterally override parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, specifically the Northern Ireland Protocol, under the ruse of Article 16 (which actually allows for no such thing). However this rhetoric seemed to ease up, perhaps when the EU said they would simply cancel the Trade and Cooperation Agreement if the UK did this.

However in an interesting twist, the DUP minister Edwin Poots has ordered his officials to halt Irish Sea border checks from midnight. This means goods would enter Northern Ireland from Great Britain without any of the required checks being carried out. It is unclear if the officials will follow his instruction.

If they refuse and say that they cannot be ordered to ignore the law then the DUP will simply be left with egg on their face.

However if they comply and stop performing checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain then it gets much more interesting. The UK would be in de facto breach of the Northern Ireland Protocol, i.e. basically the same outcome as if the UK Government had carried out the Article 16 threats it was planning to do last year. The UK Government will need to either send people to carry out those checks (thus irritating Unionists and the ERG parts of the Conservative Party), or they will allow it to happen. If they allow it to happen, EU sanctions up to and including cancelling the Trade and Cooperation Agreement will potentially be on the table.
 

AstroDan

TS Team
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And the Brexit blunder trundles on with more chaos in Northern Ireland today, after yesterday's lark.

Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk
 

Matt.GC

TS Member
And the first minister has now resigned. What a mess, the people of NI were the last people many thought about during the whole debacle.
 

Alsty

TS Member
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Shambhala
However in an interesting twist, the DUP minister Edwin Poots has ordered his officials to halt Irish Sea border checks from midnight. This means goods would enter Northern Ireland from Great Britain without any of the required checks being carried out. It is unclear if the officials will follow his instruction.

If they refuse and say that they cannot be ordered to ignore the law then the DUP will simply be left with egg on their face.
For now at least, it appears egg and Edwin Poot's face are in alignment. The High Court has ordered the checks to continue.
 

Alsty

TS Member
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Shambhala
I was somewhat amused in today's PMQs when Natalie Elphicke, the MP for Dover, mentioned the miles of traffic jams along the motorways that were affecting residents and businesses, then explicitly said it is "not because of Brexit... but because of Brussels bureaucracy and red tape".

Would that not be the bureaucracy and red tape that Brexit introduced since we left the single market?
 

Jonathan

TS Member
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I'm questioning whether she actually has a brain in that skull of hers. She wants Brexit, but doesn't want the red tape that it entails. Can't have your cake and eat it, can you?
 
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