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Trump v. Harris - US election-a-polooza

Who do you think will win the US Election?

  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .
Squiggs

Squiggs

TS Team
So, who else is planning to stay up for the night/day/week/month/the remainder of the year, to watch the result roll in? I'm surprised we don't seem to have a topic yet (apologies if I've missed it).

For various reasons, it is hard to believe the results look to be quite so tight as is being claimed, but it's been fascinating to watch it play out. And whatever the result, it is going to be historic.

But who do folk think will win? Assuming there's not a dead-heat, which will presumably will be decided by Rock, Paper, Scissors or perhaps a Slap Fight.
 
I was thinking of staying up. I feel quite nervous about this election. If Trump gets in it will have serious consequences not just for the US but the entire world. What time will the results start coming in UK time do we know?
 
I've got a feeling Trump will win unfortunately. Been keeping an eye on the betting over the last week and he's still odds on favourite.
 
GaryH said:
What time will the results start coming in UK time do we know?
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It sounds like the swing state of Georgia will be one of the earliest results we know, apparently they're aiming to have about 80% of the result by 2am GMT. The other swing states are likely to take some time.
 
I think Harris will barely clinch it. When I last looked, she was very slightly up in Pennsylvania. The Selzer poll (reported to be extremely reputable) showing Harris to win the normally red state of Iowa gives me hope.
 
RicketyCricket said:
I've got a feeling Trump will win unfortunately. Been keeping an eye on the betting over the last week and he's still odds on favourite.
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yeah but one guy has been propping up the odds on many like poly market, I think it is just people trying to make it look better for trump by buying up odds then calming betting is better than polling. also polling for harris has surged due to some recent mistakes trump has made
 
Zeock said:
I think Harris will barely clinch it. When I last looked, she was very slightly up in Pennsylvania. The Selzer poll (reported to be extremely reputable) showing Harris to win the normally red state of Iowa gives me hope.
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It's interesting you mention Iowa as being a red state when it's gone blue in six elections since 1988 inclusive, including both 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won.
 
Jonathan said:
It's interesting you mention Iowa as being a red state when it's gone blue in six elections since 1988 inclusive, including both 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama won.
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I believe it is red because last election it went to trump by like 8%, in the past few years the republican party has changed from conservatives (mostly popular with office workers) to more rage / cult / far right which is settling with blue collar according to polling, meaning the states has shifted similar to how Florida used to be a swing state
 
flyingguitar said:
I believe it is red because last election it went to trump by like 8%, in the past few years the republican party has changed from conservatives (mostly popular with office workers) to more rage / cult / far right which is settling with blue collar according to polling, meaning the states has shifted similar to how Florida used to be a swing state
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You may be onto something there. With the 2020 election, the margin of victory for the Republicans in Iowa did narrow by a small amount. I don't know whether it'll flip to the Democrats, but I'm trying to hold out some hope.
 
At this very late juncture, informed by a no-doubt misleading algorithm, my instinct is saying it will be Harris... just. I think Trump's final ten days of campaigning have done nothing to endear himself to anyone sitting on the fence, especially in the case of the women's vote. Harris is banal and lacks policy, but the Dems work in that same timeframe has generated a sense of urgency and, at the least, some illusion of hope. Trump has truly lost the pizazz of his first run, and I think many people who once perhaps gave him a vote have largely grown sick of him.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome given how close the polls are, but I think Kamala Harris will win. She often seems to have a slight edge in the polls, from my reading, and many pundits also seem to think that she has more potential routes to the White House than Donald Trump.

They’ve also now released an exit poll, and that suggested that “the state of democracy” and “abortion”, Harris’ strongest issues, were cited as having more voters viewing them as the most important issue than “the economy” and “immigration”, Trump’s strongest issues. Some are taking that to mean that Harris’ message was cutting through more with voters.
 
The polls are well within the margin of error. As Trump supports are less likely to trust pollsters, they are less likely to talk to them, so there's all manner of compensatory formulae sticky taped to nuts and bolts behind each poll. It will be interesting to see whether they are still under estimating Trump support, or now over over estimating.

With how close some of the swing states are, it's not just a toss-up of who will win, but how big they will win.

I wouldn't put money on predicting either outcome. No result would surprise me. But I'm 50.1% thinking Trump. A. because I'm a pessimist, and B. Trump supporters can be so unpredictable.

The only outcome that's certain, is that someone will be shot at some point. Because this is America.

Edit: Scratch what I just said. He's been preparing the ground for this all week, but even by his low standards, is extremely early to start telling these lies already. Does he know something we don't?

news.sky.com

Donald Trump claims there is 'massive cheating' taking place in Pennsylvania

The messaging from Trump's team mirrors the 2020 election - his campaign filed lawsuits in a number of states, including Pennsylvania (where Philadelphia is based) alleging election fraud.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
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I really can’t get my head around people voting for trump after all the lawsuits and lies over the past four years about him. The secret files found in his home.

Sadly it seems much of the trump support is coming from men, those who seem to think they have a right to tell women they don’t have the right to an abortion, and are so religious, but also have an assault rifle and glock in their house.

Edit : going by the current results people are starting to suggest it’s going to be a Trump victory. God help us all!
 
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GaryH said:
I really can’t get my head around people voting for trump after all the lawsuits and lies over the past four years about him. The secret files found in his home.

Sadly it seems much of the trump support is coming from men, those who seem to think they have a right to tell women they don’t have the right to an abortion, and are so religious, but also have an assault rifle and glock in their house.
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I really can't understand it either, just watching some of the debates or rallies it sounds like one is a normal person, but the other is talking about rounding up people etc, I really can't understand who would vote for someone like that, but they have a system where a lot of peoples vote doesn't count because the state they are in (see electoral college), and the republicans haven't won the popular vote for ages
 
Was thinking that Harris would scrape it. Mainly because those on the fence who gave Trump the benefit of the doubt the first time around saw that he didn't get his wall built and all his other promises. Still think there are enough of them to vote Harris this time around. Plus, you'll probably get a lot more young women coming out to vote for Harris due to the abortion stuff and some pop-stars telling them to. Sounds close though and nothing would surprise me. Pennsylvania won't announce until probably Friday so will probably be waiting until then to find out.

Edit - Had only just woke up for work. After listening to the radio on the way in, sounds bad for Harris. Looks like a big party for Trump and his supporters this weekend.
 
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